Capitalogix

The Future of Spaceflight

When I talk about exponential technologies, I almost always end up discussing Tesla and SpaceX. 

Elon Musk is an interesting guy.

Whether they end up doing everything they say they're going to, his companies massively accelerate the rate at which capabilities turn into products and platforms for future growth.

I recently shared the Elon quote: "Stop being patient and start asking yourself, how do I accomplish my 10-year plan in 6 months?  You'll probably fail, but you'll be a lot further along than the person who simply accepted it was going to take 10 years!"

I don't know if he really said it.  Nonetheless, it sounds like him ... and I agree with the sentiment.

The New Space Race.

When I was young, the Space Race captured the heart and souls of Americans.  But, for the past few decades, it was in the background.  Recently, that has changed.  The space race is getting hot again.  Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX is leading the pack. 

In 2018, I shared excitement that the boosters he used were reusable.  Today, people are talking about how the newest ship, Starship, could render other rocket programs obsolete. 

 

via visualcapitalist

 

While there's always room for competition, I can see many programs falling far behind if they haven't been focusing on reusability.  Assuming Starship delivers on its promises (keeping in mind that Elon is often over-confident about his timeline), it will be cheaper and more versatile than anything out there. 

I think it's naive to assume that other companies aren't doing interesting things ... but by the time they release anything comparable, it's possible that SpaceX will already dominate the market. 

The economics of reusable rocketry isn't yet cost-effective for most potential customers, but Musk is undoubtedly moving the needle in the right direction. 

Hopefully, he can continue to raise the expectations of both consumers and producers.  The results could be out-of-the-world.

Right now, suborbital trips from Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin cost between 250K to 500K per trip - and trips to actual orbit cost over $50 million. 

However, I believe the cost of space travel - and space tourism - will drop radically within my lifetime. 

It's hard to comprehend the scale of the universe and the scale of our potential ... but that's what makes it worth exploring!

Even though we've only been talking about space travel, there are so many other exponential technologies that this applies to just as well.

Onwards!

The Most Terrifying Infographic of 2022

As we enter the new year, it feels appropriate to focus a little on our mortality. What better time for an existential crisis? 

Below is an infographic that shows events in the life of a typical American. However, you can personalize it to display how long you likely have to live by filling in your education level, sex, country of birth, and when you were born. Seeing where you are ... versus how many dots are left can be jarring.

 

via Coruscant Consulting

Looking at the chart done with my information reminded me how important it is to make the most of the time I have left. 

Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by ... and other times, it almost seems to stand still.

Everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Some use it better than others. 

Sometimes we are conscious of how we use this precious resource. Sometimes it gets away from us.

Here is a video that illustrates how most of us spend our time. It is called The Time You Have (In JellyBeans).

 

zefrank via YouTube

The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?

What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or to miss an important event because "life happens". But, if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn't it become more special?

In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" – and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

That is an example, but I want to take it one step further. 

To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

• Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
• Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
• Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - Wow!
• Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
• Experiencing peace and relaxation;
• Feeling pure joy.

It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning. 

How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

To start, think about different time frames:

• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

Seriously, try it.  

Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose.

Onwards!

Visualizing Global GDP in 2021

There are numerous ways to look at or measure the global economy (including trade blocs, big industry movers, or debt). Another way to get a global overview is to compare GDP.

When trading was slower and more deeply tied to an investor mindset, economics played a more significant role in fundamental analysis. As the holding period (or "time in trade") shrinks, there is less focus on predicting markets over the long term ... and more on determining which techniques are making money now.

Even though markets are not the same as the economy, on a macro scale, many believe that it is possible to create value by understanding and the global economy better.  

With that, take a look at the $94 trillion world economy, divided by region. 

 

via visualcapitalist 

Some thoughts: 

• Global GDP was $87 trillion in 2019 and $84 trillion in 2020. So, while COVID did negatively impact GDP initially, it has rebounded and risen again as if 2020 hadn't interrupted the trend. 
• Since 2018, China has been slowly gaining ground on the U.S.'s lead 
• Global GDP isn't zero-sum, so countries doing better doesn't necessarily mean other countries are doing worse 
• The top four countries - U.S., China, Japan, and Germany - make up over half of the world's GDP. 
• Based on GDP growth, Libya, Guyana, Macao, the Maldives, and Ireland have the world's fastest-growing economies. 

To put these numbers in perspective, the world economy was approximately $3 trillion in 1970, and GDP is estimated to double again by 2050. 

Crazy stuff.

How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

I write about the future of technology often. 

But, sometimes, it's fun to see what others have to say as well.

Every year Visual Capitalist puts together a list of their predictions for the coming year. As we reach the final two weeks of 2021, I figure it's worth taking a look!

Here was their "bingo card" for 2021.

via visualcapitalist

Honestly, that was a pretty good set of predictions.  While some of this list didn't pan out, much of it did. We're seeing a growing exodus from major cities (where people lived to pursue opportunities previously available only in such places), movies are recovering, and hybrid work models are all the rage. 

Could they have predicted how much of an issue COVID would pose throughout the year? Probably not. 

As we near the end of 2021, there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

Global markets have the jitters - and we don't see the increased volatility changing anytime soon. 

What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 19th, 2021

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Tech Revolution Has Reached Warp Speed: What Lies In Store For 2022. (VanityFair)
• NFL Postpones Three Games Due To COVID-19 Outbreak. (NBC Sports)
• The NFL Pivots To Less Covid Testing, Not More, To Thwart Disruptions. (WSJ)
• Seoul the First City to Enter the Metaverse. (ThisCityKnows)
• For the First Time In History, a Spacecraft Has 'Touched' the Sun. (ScienceAlert)

 

Trading Links:

• What Will Work Look Like In 2022? Glassdoor Makes Four Predictions. (Protocol)
• Is Bigger Better? Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion. (EurasiaReview)
• Core Inflation Shoots to Highest Level Since 1992.(Statista)
• The Regional Breakdown of Stock Market Sectors Over Time. (VisualCapitalist)
• Bruce Springsteen Sells Music Catalog to Sony for $500 Million. (The Wrap)

A-To-Z of The Internet Minute in 2021

As I get older, time seems to move faster ... but it's also true that as I get older, more is accomplished every minute. 

Technology is a powerful force function. In fact, the amount of data in the digital universe effectively doubles every two years. 

Every couple of years, I revisit a chart about how much data is generated every minute on the internet.  

In reverse chronological order, here's 2018, 2015, and 2011. 

Here's an excerpt from 2015 for some perspective: 

Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

• The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion (2021 #: 5.2 billion) 
• Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion (2021 #: 2.89 billion
• Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting. (2021 #: 206 million ACTIVE users after a big bot deletion)
• The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase! (2021 #: 6.37 billion)

Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

• 4 million search queries on Google
• Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
• Email users send 204 million messages

Throughout its (pretty short) history, the internet has been arguably the most important battlefield for relevancy and innovation. 

So, what does the internet look like in 2021?

DOMO via visualcapitalist 

Looking at the list, we see new editions like Clubhouse and Strava. Partially due to the quarantine, you're still seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams. 

Just to pick out some of the key figures in the chart this year. 

• Amazon users spend $283,000
• 6M people shop online
• TikTok users watch 167M videos
• and, Zoom hosts 856 minutes of webinars. 

Before 2020, I already thought that big tech had a massive influence on our lives. Yet, somehow this past year has pushed their impact even higher. 

One other thing this chart also helps put into perspective is the rapid rate of adoption. As you look at different year's charts, you can see how quickly apps have become part of the cultural zeitgeist. 

How do you think these numbers will grow or change in 2022? 

Drunkest Countries Per Capita

The holidays and the winter months tend to have a negative impact on collective mental health. 

Many jump to alcohol to make it through.

Which countries would you guess consume the most alcohol per capita?

Several people I asked quickly guessed Russia without even looking at the chart.

Well, here's the chart.

via visualcapitalist

Europe did top the list with 8 of the top 10 countries. However, Russia did not make the list. 

via visualcapitalist

The Cook Islands top the list with almost 3.5 gallons of alcohol annually per capita. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 10th, 2021

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 5 Key Ways Zoom is Shifting From Merely a Product to a Dominant Platform. (MotleyFool)
• You Can Now Communicate With William Shatner Through Interactive AI. (CBR)
• What Makes Us Human? The Answer May Be Found In Overlooked DNA. (EurasiaReview)
• Why China Sends Warplanes Into Taiwan's Airspace But Doesn't Attack Analysis. (EurasiaReview)
• Russia Tells Its Space Reporters to Stop Reporting on the Space Program. (ArsTechnica)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) Robots Market to Reach $21.4 Billion By 2026. (Finance)
• Xi Jinping Aims to Rein-In Chinese Capitalism, Hew to Mao's Socialist Vision. (Wall Street Journal)
• Central Bankers are Spooked By Signs that Inflation is Lingering for Longer. (Bloomberg)
• SEC Chief to Wall Street: The Everything Crackdown is Coming. (News)
• DeFi Picks Up the Pace as Alternate Blockchains and NFTs Boom. (CoinTelegraph)

 

 

Top Influencers (By Platform)

When you ask children what they want to be, many likely say YouTuber, Influencer, or some other variant of that theme.

Influence is a complicated thing. From an abstract perspective, it's the ability to affect someone else's behavior. A high schooler can influence their classmates. As entrepreneurs, we can influence our employees, our industry, and more. You can have immense influence over a small number of people or a little bit of influence over many people - both still count as "influence."

But, in this case, many of the most popular influencers aren't famous for changing the world; they are celebrities or just famous for being famous.

Below is a chart of the top 50 "influencers" by social media platform. 

 

via visualcapitalist

In the digital age, it's worth acknowledging social reach as power. People with a large platform have the opportunity to exert enormous influence - and it's why you often see the spread of misinformation reach far, fast. 

It would be interesting to see how many of these people use their platforms to be a beacon to their followers (rather than a beacon to attract followers).

It would also be interesting to see how much (or little) engagement many of these "influencers" actually have with their followers (and how that level of engagement relates to the growth or decay of their followings). 

While I assume that the readers of this post aren't in the business of being "Influencers,"  Most of us recognize the value of influence – and getting more of it.

As a result, it is probably worth thinking about influence as an asset.  And now is time to think strategically about how to grow and use that asset better. 

Remembering 9/11 - 20 Years Later

On September 11, 2001, 19 extremist Al Qaeda militants hijacked four airliners and carried out suicide attacks against targets in the United States. Nearly 3000 people were killed during the attacks.

Do you remember where you were when it happened?

For most Americans, it’s easy. That moment – and its ripples – are imprinted on our minds. For my son, Zach, it was in his 3rd-grade class. They wheeled in a TV on a cart for the students to watch. One of his classmate’s uncles was killed in the attack.

A colleague of mine was supposed to be in the tower that day but rescheduled a meeting for the following day – narrowly missing it.

And now 20 years have passed. So much has changed. So much has stayed the same. We’ve analyzed the events of that morning a thousand ways from different vantage points ... and it’s still impossible to fully grasp the weight of the event.

It’s crazy to imagine that there are now full-fledged adults who have no memory of it.

And with that, Visual Capitalist put together a great chronology of the event.

As we honor those that gave their lives – or had them taken from them – it’s a powerful reminder.

Click the image to enlarge.

via visualcapitalist

The Pentagon has been repaired and we have a new World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan – but the wounds of that day still remain.

Even more so for the actual first responders. With that, I’ll leave you with a powerful video from Jon Stewart, fighting for those first responders.