Capitalogix

The Global Stock Market In One Chart

In 2021, we looked at the (then) $94 Trillion Global GDP. 

Today, I found a chart focusing on the $109 Trillion Global Stock Market.

While there are certainly still fears about recessions, downturns, and more, nonetheless, it's good to see some growth. To understand more about the market-cap-to-GDP ratio, check out this link. 

Unsurprisingly, the U.S. and China dominate the list, accounting for over 50% of the global market themselves. Even less surprisingly, emerging markets saw the most growth last year. 

Visual Capitalist points out that U.S. stocks have often outperformed other wealthy nations over the past several decades. 

If an investor put $100 in the S&P 500 in 1990, this investment would have grown to about $2,000 in 2023, or four-fold the returns earned in other developed countries.

The U.S. has been the leader in this space for as long as I can remember, but as emerging countries start to gain their footing, it's likely our percentage of the pie will decrease. Hopefully, the pie gets bigger as that happens. 

What do you think will happen?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 1st, 2023

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Sphere's First Show Looks Like It Was a Mind-Blowing Spectacle. (TheVerge)
• How to Use ChatGPT's New Image Features. (Wired)
• Nvidia Outlines Jensen 'Huang's Law' of Computing. (Tom's Hardware)
• They Studied Dishonesty. Was Their Work a Lie? (NewYorker)
• Sam Altman Says AI Systems Will Automate Some Tasks But Also Lead to 'New and Much Better Jobs'. (Insider)

 

Trading Links:

• Money Mentor Trading Podcast – Sunny Harris Interviews Howard Getson. (Podcasters)
• ‘AI is Not a Writer:' Why the Writers' Strike Deal Matters Beyond Hollywood. (TheHustle)
• How to Copyright Your AI Creations. (HackerNoon)
• Elon Musk Says One of His Ventures Will Reach a $1 Trillion Market Cap by 2030. (TheStreet)
• A Top Economist Who Studies AI Says It Will Double Productivity in the Next Decade: ‘You Need to Embrace this Technology and Not Resist It'. (Fortune)

How To Build A Business 101

My son attended Russell Brunson's annual Clickfunnels conference.  They produce some of the most accessible marketing content we've found.

 

Me and Russell at the Cowboys V. Texans Game in 2016

When attending a conference, the main goal is to extract one key insight and an actionable item to boost your business ... even if you're well-versed in the subject.

After events, we conduct debriefing sessions to distill our most significant takeaways and get alignment.

This year's central theme was integrating disparate elements (in this case, "funnels") into a cohesive system and cyclical approach to drive sustainable growth.  Russell made a compelling point: many so-called "businesses" are really just a string of promotions.  According to his definition, a true business requires recurring revenue and continuity.

Aspiring entrepreneurs often impulsively shift from one idea or product to the next.  They hastily launch their ventures, make a modest profit, and swiftly move on to the next endeavor, trying to stay on top of trends.  Unfortunately, they neglect product development and fail to maintain their existing promotions in their haste to get to "next."  Consequently, their businesses become incredibly fragile, susceptible to external shocks such as the unexpected disruptions of events like COVID-19, sudden market crashes, or social media platform crackdowns, which can ultimately lead to their demise

Like most great lessons, it's fractal.  If you've been paying attention, you'll see how we've shared this idea before.  So, I want to tell the same story from those other perspectives. 

Selling Picks and Shovels

Most of us have heard the old adage about selling picks and shovels during the gold rush.

During a gold rush, many people rush to the goldfields to strike it rich by finding valuable gold nuggets.  However, most gold rush participants do not find gold.

 

Often, the people who make the most money are the ones selling picks and shovels (goods and services) to the speculators.  Said a different way, profits often flow to people who provide the systems and infrastructure that enable others to dream of a bigger and better future. 

It's not sexy, but it's reduced risk, consistent demand, and a long-term perspective.  When the mine dries up, you move on to the next mine and patiently stack your gold nuggets. 

And, there's a plethora of opportunity that isn't selling picks and shovels.  You can build temporary lodgings, open a bar, and of course, you can't forget the world's oldest profession ... trading. 

 

Leveraging AI

It's easy to compare the AI race to the gold rush, but it's much more than that.  Both the AI race and the gold rush generated significant hype and excitement.  In both cases, there's a sense of a potentially life-changing opportunity, which attracts a herd of energized early movers looking for their big break.  Just as gold prospecting was a risky and uncertain endeavor with no guarantee of success, the AI race is characterized by uncertainty and fear.  Many are afraid, not just of losing their jobs, but of how to best use the technology. 

As a result, you see a sea of people adopting every new app they can find, all to continue treading water in their business. 

This occurs because people forget that AI is simply a tool – not the goal.  They get blinded by the bright shiny objects, those glitters of gold near the top, that they don't do the hard work to find the bigger nuggets below the ground.  All those tools are great, just like the promotions Russell mentioned.  However, they're often distractions from building or buying something custom to your needs and focused on your bigger future. 

To raise the stakes a bit, one of the biggest difference between the AI race and the gold rush, is the lasting impact.  While the gold rush did lead to some lasting economic and infrastructural changes in certain areas, the AI race is going to significantly transform entire industries, economies, and societies over the long term.

The Capitalogix Advantage: A Solid Platform For Success

In our office, we think of this idea as the difference between a capability, a prototype, a product, and a platform.  Building a platform (and a community) is how you become an institution and a game-changer.

When you start with that mindset, you can be the picks and shovels, you can be the hotels and hospitals, but you can also be the miner looking for the next big thing.  That's what Capitalogix does for ourselves and our joint venture partners. 

Continuity and recurring revenue create the bandwidth for innovation and ideation. 

We have developed a fault-tolerant infrastructure because we have experienced fires, floods, Internet failures, the Snowpocalypse, bad data, missing data, and human error … not to mention Trump Tweets or COVID-19.  That means our tools are built on a solid infrastructure supported by extensive experience. 

And, while we've pivoted since inception, our vision and our "why" haven't.  Joint ventures and new technologies are steps on our journey to our vision, not short-term promotions and distractions. 

It's a small distinction with a massive impact. 

When you're exploring the Wild West, whether it's in a gold rush, an AI boom, or in the world of e-commerce, your chances of success rise rapidly with a goal, a why, and a plan. 

Hope that helps.  

Sign Up For My New AI Newsletter

I'm launching a new newsletter - with a twist.  The newsletter will be fully automated and produced by an AI we are training to pick out the articles to highlight and share.

 

Don't Let the Past Get In the Way of the New.

Even though a lot of what I think and write about is innovation, exponential technologies, and automation ... until now, what we write and send has been the result of human effort rather than artificial intelligence or technology. 

Sure, portions of the process leverage technology ... but humans have written the vast majority of what you read here. 

It takes many hours a week.  Frankly, many more hours than you would guess!  

Still, I enjoy working on the Weekly Commentary and the list of links that I share.  It is a labor of love (or OCD?) that I have been producing for about twenty years!

If you aren't a subscriber yet, please click here to get it!

We currently send out two weekly e-mails.  The one that comes out on Fridays is a hand-curated list of links that I found interesting during the week.  The Sunday edition has two articles written by me and my son, Zach, along with a few more links. 

Deep down, I know that AI is now good enough to curate a high-quality list of articles in a more efficient, effective, and certain way than what I produce.

So, we are about a week away from launching this.

 

 

This is my John Henry Versus The Machine.

And I'll tell you what – I'm worried.

The new AI-generated newsletter is really good. 

 

Why Play a Losing Game? 

I know that I will lose ... But I also know that I will win.  And so will you!

This does not have to be an "either-or" decision.  This is a "both-and" decision.  Meaning ... I don't have to decide whether to stop producing by hand, in order to also produce with AI.

One of the challenges with AI is that the fitness function you choose significantly impacts the result you achieve.

If the purpose of the newsletter was only to produce a quality newsletter in less time, with less effort, and with greater certainty that readers engage ... then the result is inevitable.  The AI newsletter wins.

However, I didn't choose to produce the newsletter for the newsletter.  The newsletter is a natural result of my nature. I did the research because I wanted to do the research.

I am naturally curious and passionate about these things.  It's what I think about.  It's who I am ... and what I do.

The Weekly Commentary and Link List are strategic byproducts of something that I'm going to choose to do anyway,

 

AI Won't Replace the Real Magic.

One of my beliefs about AI is that you shouldn't use it to replace your Unique Ability.  In other words, don't try to automate, delegate,  or outsource something you are great at, if it gives you energy.  The goal is to magnify "magic," not replace it.  The goal is to spotlight and support those areas by taking away things that are frustrating, bothersome, distracting, or taking cycles away from something that would produce a greater result with less energy.

The point is, I can do both.  I will still do research because it gives me pleasure, knowledge, and a greater likelihood of continuing to learn and grow. I will continue to write and curate. 

Why?  Because it's also an important part of my thinking process.  I think when I speak.  I think when I write.  But more importantly, I think when I am preparing to speak or write.  I wouldn't be me if I didn't go through that process.  I also don't believe my ideas or opinions would continue evolving without the challenge and effort.

And I will also enjoy evolving new and different channels of communication.

Hopefully, we all benefit.

So, I hope you sign up for the new newsletter. We'll be sending out the first e-mail within the next week or two. 

As I've said, I love writing and researching.  I'm an innovator at heart. 

Many read my articles because of my commitment to AI, new technologies, and the future.  Most of my exploration has been centered on Capitalogix and our Amplified Intelligence Platform.  But there are a lot of exciting new use cases of AI, and I'm exploring many of those apps right now. 

For example, as you could have guessed, one such use that I'm excited about is AI-curated newsletters.  Many people I trust and respect have started using Daily.AI, including Peter Diamandis, Dan Sullivan, Joe Polish, and Chris Voss. It's clearly a successful modality. 

 

A Thousand Mile Journey Starts With a Single Step.

Hopefully, you are excited about the new newsletter and the value you will get from it.

I'm confident it will only improve – because it learns from what you value. 

To start, the newsletter will focus on these three topic areas: 

1. How to build a resilient business in a fast-changing world
2. The Psychology of technology & technology addiction
3. Business ethics and AI ethics in today's world. 

But that is just the starting point.  It is set up to consider the same type of offshoots as I normally would.  So, it will remain diverse and educational. 

Please sign up and let me know what you think about it.   

Media Bias and You in 2023

Information is Power.

Consequently, your choice of information source heavily contributes to your perceptions, ideas, and worldview.

Coincidently, news sources are a lightning rod for vitriol and polemic.

I am still somewhat surprised by the abject hatred I hear expressed toward a particular news source by those who hold an opposing bias.  This often leads to claims of fake news, delusion, and partisan press.  Likewise, it is common to hear derision toward anyone who consumes that news source.

Perhaps the reality is that most sources are flawed – and the goal should simply be to find information that sucks less?

It's to the point where if you watch the news, you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news, you're uninformed. 

News sources aren't just reporting the news ... they're creating opinions and arguments that become the news.  Moreover, many consumers don't care enough to think for themselves or to distinguish facts from opinions.

Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank on various scales.  It has default options and over 1400 sources you can add to the interactive version.  You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details.  It gets updated every year, and this year's just got released.

via Ad Fontes Media

I once spent fifteen minutes arguing about how you know whether the information in this chart is accurate.  If you're curious about their methods, click here. 

The "new normal" is to distrust news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

Perhaps even more dangerous is the amount of fake news and haphazard research shared on social media.  Willful misrepresentations of complex issues are now a "too common" communication tactic on both sides ... and the fair and unbiased consideration of issues suffers.  

Social media spreads like wildfire, and the damage is done by the time it has been debunked (or proven to be an oversimplification).  Once people are "convinced," it is hard to get beyond that. 

In reality, things aren't as bleak as they seem.  People agree on a lot more than they say they do.  It is often easier to focus on "us" versus "them" rather than what we agree upon jointly.  This is true on a global scale.  We agree a lot.  Most Democrats aren't socialists, and most Republicans aren't fascists ... and the fact that our conversation has drifted there is intellectually lazy.

This idea that either side is trying to destroy the country is clearly untrue (OK, mostly untrue).  There are loonies on the fringes of any group, but the average Democrat is not that unlike the average Republican.  You don't have to agree with their opinions, but you should be able to trust that they want our country to succeed. 

I don't know that we have a solution.  But there is one common "fake news" fallacy I want to explain at least a little. 

It's called the Motte and Bailey fallacy.  It's named after a style of medieval castle prioritizing military defense.

Launceston Castle via Chris Shaw, CC BY-SA 2.0

On the left is a Motte, an artificial mound often topped with a stone structure, and on the right is a Bailey, the enclosed courtyard.  The Motte serves to protect not only itself but also the Bailey. 

As a form of argument, an arguer conflates two positions that share similarities.  One of the positions is easy to defend (the Motte), and the other is controversial (the Bailey).  The arguer advances the controversial position, but when challenged, insists they're only advancing the moderate position.  Upon retreating, the arguer can claim that the Bailey hasn't been refuted or that the critic is unreasonable by equating an attack on the Bailey with an attack on the Motte. 

It's a common method used by newscasters, politicians, and social media posters alike.  And it's easy to get caught in it if you don't do your research. 

Conclusion

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe ... so it is hard to change a belief (even in the face of contrary evidence). 

But, hopefully, in learning about these fallacies, and being aware, we do better. 

I will caution that blind distrust is dangerous – because it feels like critical thought without forcing you to think critically.

Distrust is good ... but too much of a good thing is bad. 

Not everything is a conspiracy theory or a false flag.

Do research, give more credence to experts in a field - but don't blindly trust them either.  How well do you think you're really thinking for yourself?

We live in a complicated world that is getting more complex. 

Hopefully, knowing this encourages you to get outside your bubble and learn more about those with whom you disagree.

Who knows ... Something good may come from it?

Gartner's 2023 Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies

I share an article about Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies each year.  It does a great job of documenting what technologies are reaching maturity and which technologies’ ascents are being enhanced by the cultural zeitgeist (hype, momentum, great timing, etc.).

Creating a report like this requires a unique mixture of technological analysis and insight, an acute understanding of human nature, and a lot of common sense.

Identifying which technologies are making real waves (and thus will impact the world more) is a monumental task.  Gartner’s report is a great benchmark to compare with your perception of reality.

A quick look back at past reports shows that 2021 saw the inclusion of NFTs and advancements in AI.  It also focused on the increasing ubiquity of technology.  2022 built on those trends, recognizing that we were moving towards immersive experiences, faster digital transformations, and the adoption of exponential AI capabilities.  For reference, click here to see what Gartner predicted last year.

Meanwhile, let’s look at the 2023 version of Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies report.  2023 has some meaningful changes – and is best understood by where things are placed on Gartner’s framework called the “Hype Cycle.”

What’s a “Hype Cycle”?

As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities ... and to get disappointed when those expectations aren’t met. 

At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product’s timeline we are – and how long it likely will take the technology to hit maturity.  It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily lives. 

Gartner’s Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a concise and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.

Here are the five regions of Gartner’s Hype Cycle framework:

1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like “How will these technologies impact my business?” and “Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?”

That said - it’s worth acknowledging that the hype cycle can’t predict which technologies will survive the trough of disillusionment and which ones will fade into obscurity. 

What’s exciting this year?

Before focusing on this year, it’s important to remember that, in 2019, Gartner shifted towards spotlighting new technologies at the expense of technologies that would normally persist through multiple iterations of the cycle.  This change helps account for the increasing number of innovations and technology introductions we are exposed to compared to the norm when they first started producing this report.  As a result, many of the technologies highlighted over the past couple of years (like Augmented Intelligence, 5G, biochips, the decentralized web, etc.) are now represented within newer modalities or distinctions. 

It’s also worth noting the impact of the pandemic on the prevalent technologies. 

For comparison, here’s my article from 2019, and here’s my article from 2015.  Click on the chart below to see a larger version of this year’s Hype Cycle.

 

via Gartner

Last year’s themes were:

1. Evolving/Expanding Immersive Experiences,
2. Accelerated Artificial Intelligence Automation, and
3. Optimized Technology Delivery (digital businesses)

This year, the key technologies were bucketed into four major themes.

• Emergent AI represents the technologies that increase workforce productivity and differentiation from competitors.  The hallmark technology of this theme is Generative AI, but another exciting one is AI Simulation - where environments and people can be replicated virtually to run simulations and ask questions.  Imagine being able to create a digital replica of yourself (or a specialist in different disciplines) to bounce ideas off of ... or to create a virtual advisory board to help process tough issues or test the response to various situations, opportunities, or challenges.
• Developer Experience (DevX) is precisely what it sounds like.  Enhancing the developer suite of technologies not only enhances your engineering team but also helps attract and retain high-level employees.  Value Stream Management Platforms (VSMP) is a good example of this.  VSMP is intended to optimize product delivery from end to end. 
• Pervasive Cloud focuses on how cloud computing is evolving.  This theme is also focused on creating an end-to-end use case.  In an ideal world, this enables easy and automated operational scaling, lots of cloud-native tools, and stability improvements.  A sample technology under this umbrella would be WebAssembly, a lightweight virtual machine and binary code format that would enable secure, high-performance applications on your web pages. 
• Last but not least, we have Human-Centric Security and Privacy.  In response to growing security concerns, this theme recognizes the pressure companies face to create cultures and systems that value and protect security.  AI Trust, risk, and security management (AI TRiSM) is the culmination of this effort and represents a holistic approach to governance, reliability, efficacy, and more.  This will be an important frontier to develop as we innovate faster. 

Last year, the main focus was on the spread of emerging technologies.  Last year’s themes focused on the ubiquity of AI in all facets of life – and the increasing immersiveness of these technologies. 

This year, the focus seems to be on responding to that increasing ubiquity.  It’s about building systems that help adopt these new technologies efficiently ... while also protecting yourself from making mistakes at lightspeed. 

Of course, I’m always most interested in the intersection of AI and other spaces.  Last year, AI became a lighthouse for businesses to work toward.  It’s continued to shine a light this year.  In my opinion, this points towards the increasing maturity and adoption of AI.  The opportunity cost of adopting AI into your business is continuing to decrease.

Meanwhile, these systems are also becoming more autonomic, self-managing, and self-learning.  I’m excited to see Gartner emphasizing what this does for humans - not what it takes away from them.  Remember, the heart of artificial intelligence is human - and it continues to free us up to be more human.  

 

As we reach new echelons of AI, you’ll likely see increasing examples of over-hype and short-term failures.  You often miss a rung on the ladder as you reach for new heights, but it doesn’t mean you should stop climbing.  More importantly, it doesn’t mean failure or even a lack of progress.  Challenges and practical realities act as force functions that forge better, more robust, resilient, and adaptable solutions that do what you want (or something better).  It just takes longer than you initially wanted or hoped.

To paraphrase a quote I have up on the wall in my office from Rudiger Dornbusch ... Things often take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could. 

Many of these technologies have been hyped for years - but the hype cycle differs from the adoption cycle.  We often overestimate what we can do in a year and underestimate what we can do in ten years. 

I say it often ... we live in interesting times!

Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?

Let me know what you think.

Onwards!

"Is The Stock Market Going To Crash?!"

I usually don't concern myself with looking at stock charts anymore, but I still like paying attention to what people say about them ... 

Recently, I saw this image posted.

via r/StockMarket

So, will the market attract buyers … or sellers?

Personally, I expect volatility.  

Why?  

Because markets exist to trade, and it tends to generate those trades by 'shaking' the weak holders.  

A big move up here will trigger a lot of buying (and short-covering by weak bears).  

While a big move down will trigger a lot of selling (as Bulls fear the long-anticipated next leg down).

I also recognize that we're entering an election year. So there's still time for a correction before a sustained rally.

Here's the problem.  Even though I still enjoy the mental exercise of going through these scenarios, I recognize how little value they add.

You can look at any point in history and find articles and charts that tell you the world is ending, or that the fear is overblown and we're going to get to the other side, and there's a pot of gold waiting for you. 

It's easy to use charts to explain what happened. It is a lot harder to use charts to predict what is about to happen.

I still keep my ear to the ground because I like having a feeling for the sentiment around both experienced investors and your average Joe.  Conventional trading wisdom says that crowds are usually wrong at turning points.  That doesn't mean they are always wrong (still, it makes sense to notice when Smart Money clearly disagrees). 

Knowing these things doesn't make any difference in the decisions I make about trading ... because I let the computer make those decisions.  Nonetheless, it makes me feel better. 

So, is the stock market going to crash?  Who knows?  Anyone that pretends they know is full of it.  There are too many factors at play to decide whether the market is going to crash.

From my perspective, it doesn't make sense to try to predict something random.

On the other hand, if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one.

Algorithmic trading is about creating more ways to win. 

To be effective, algorithmic trading is about switching from lower expectancy positions to higher expectancy positions.

In general, here is how that works.

Understand that you can make trading decisions based on market patterns, trends, sentiment, statistics, behavioral economics, game theory, reversion to the mean, or countless other methods.  Further, realize that no technique works all the time ... but there is always a technique that works (even if that means getting out of the market). 

There is an advantage in tracking each of these to gain a perspective of perspectives (in order to identify an advantage or opportunity in real-time as it happens). For example, you could measure and calculate a blend of your confidence in an algorithm or technique and how it is performing.  This creates the opportunity to switch into and out of various techniques and markets as things change.

Having an edge in trading often comes down to information asymmetry. This means knowing more, faster, better, or different things than what others are using to make decisions.

Hope that helps.

Understanding Industrial Revolutions

Last week, I talked about the potential for room-temperature superconductors. 

In that discussion, I noted that we are now in the 4th Industrial Revolution, in part because of better and more connected chips (semiconductors).

I want to dive back into Industrial Revolutions because we're at an inflection point in AI and chips. 

A Look at Industrial Revolutions

The Industrial Revolution has two phases: one material, the other social; one concerning the making of things, the other concerning the making of men. - Charles A. Beard

There are several turning points in our history where the world changed forever.  Former paradigms and realities became relics of a bygone era. 

Tomorrow's workforce will require different skills and face different challenges than we do today.  You can consider this the Fourth Industrial Revolution.  Compare today's changes to our previous industrial revolutions. 

• First industrial revolution - Discovery of the steam engine and creation of factories
• Second industrial revolution - Introduction of the assembly line and mass production
• Third industrial revolution - The world wide web and computers connect the world, enabling the digital age. 

Each revolution shared multiple similarities.  They were disruptive.  They were centered on technological innovation.  They created concatenating socio-cultural impacts.

Since most of us remember the third revolution, let's spend some time on that. 

Here's a map of the entire "internet" in 1973. 

Reddit via @WorkerGnome.

Most of us didn't use the internet at this point, but you probably remember Web1 (static HTML pages, a 5-minute download to view a 3Mb picture, and of course ... waiting for a website to load over the dialup connection before you could read it).  It was still amazing!

Then, Web 2.0 came, and so did everything we now associate with the internet; Facebook, YouTube, ubiquitous porn sites, and Google.  But, with Web 2.0 also came user tracking and advertising, which meant that we became the "product."  Remember, you're not the customers of those platforms - advertisers are.  And if you're not the customer, you're the product.  And when you're not the customer, there's no reason for the platforms not to censor what you see, hear, or experience to control the narrative. 

Now we're seeing a focus on the Blockchain, and its reliant technologies, with Web3.

Where we are and where we are going

I believe that, if managed well, the Fourth Industrial Revolution can bring a new cultural renaissance, which will make us feel part of something much larger than ourselves: a true global civilization. I believe the changes that will sweep through society can provide a more inclusive, sustainable and harmonious society. But it will not come easily. – Klaus Schwab

With Web3, A.I., better chips, and more, we're at the apex of another inflection point.  As a result, the game is changing, as are the rules, the players, and what it means to win. 

At significant transition points, it is easy to see fear, resistance, and a push to keep things the same.  Yet, time marches on.  Much of the pain felt during these transitions occurs because people hesitate to adapt.  As a result, the wave crashes on them instead of them riding it to safety. 

Robots can do many things, but they've yet to match humanity's creativity and emotional insight.  As automation spreads to more jobs, the need for management, creativity, and decision-making won't go anywhere … data and analytics might augment them, but they won't disappear. 

Our uniqueness and flexibility rightly protect our usefulness.  AI and automation free us up to be our best selves and to explore new possibilities. 

All of these changes bring about a decentralization of power - and a new set of freedoms for people – including the ability to discover and adopt capabilities in less time and with less effort.  But, to bring it back to my skepticism again, there are a lot of roadblocks, interferences, and time between now and the consumer being in control again. 

We can shorten that distance, though.  This reminds me of a quote by Elon Musk: 

Stop being patient and start asking yourself, how do I accomplish my 10 year plan in 6 months? You will probably fail but you will be a lot further ahead than the person who simply accepted it was going to take 10 years."

One of an entrepreneur's most powerful capabilities is the ability to shorten time - and get more done than others thought possible. 

Onwards!

Are You Ready For Some Football?

Are you ready for some Football?

Yesterday was the Cowboys' first preseason game. 

It wasn't exactly the prettiest (partly because it was the first game of the season, but also because many of the starters sat the game out to avoid injury).  With that said, it was still a fantastic experience.  The NFL (and Jerry Jones) knows how to put on a show. 

 

It's Easy to Feel Good at the Start of a Season.

Lots of people ask me how the Cowboys look this year.  The truth is, at this point in the season, it's impossible to know because injuries have a dramatic impact on the game.  

Regardless, each year I choose to be optimistic about the chance of a post-season run. 

That kind of logic (or lack there of) is why I think automated trading is better than humans attempting to do it themselves.  It's a way to make objective decisions and eliminate fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.

On the other hand, it feels so good to hope!

A Lesson From the Game.

I had an interesting discussion at the game yesterday.  My guest commented that Jerry Jones is a fantastic business person - which is hard to argue - but probably shouldn't be running the team.  He believes the team needs a change of pace to switch things up. 

While I don't know if that's why we tend to struggle so much more late in the season, it reminded me of a great business lesson. 

Entrepreneurs often mistake their domain expertise for general expertise.  "I'm fantastic because I'm fantastic at all these different things." And the result is they overestimate their ability to be great at things outside their unique ability.  A similar issue is that many people believe they are deep thinkers, because they think deeply about what they think about.  However, they often don't realize how narrow their range of thinking is, and how many things fall outside their expertise, interest, or even consideration.

Less Is Often More.

Learning to offload tasks that you may not be as fantastic at as others is a great way to free up time to focus on not only the things that you're great at – but also bring you joy and energy. 

Hope that helps!

How 'bout them Cowboys!

Why You Should Be Excited About Room-Temperature Superconductors

This past week, Korea released two papers claiming to have created a material (LK-99) that is superconductive at ambient temperatures. Before you get too excited, other scientists are still skeptical and cannot replicate their results fully. 

Hyun-Tak Kim—ScienceCast via TIME

Whether this ends up being the breakthrough (or not), there's reason to be excited about where this technology is going.

Semiconductors are the unsung heroes of the tech world, and they power everything from your smartphone to your car. A semiconductor, colloquially a "chip," is a substance that falls somewhere on the continuum between conductor and insulator. Manufacturers process silicon and other materials into semiconductors for all kinds of devices that rely on harnessing electricity for processing power. They're the underpinning of technology, and the 4th industrial revolution is built on the development of better and more connected chips.

That's just a semiconductor, though. What we're talking about now are superconductors. Superconductors have (you guessed it) very high electrical conductivity, allowing lossless or semi-lossless transfer. Up until now, superconductors were only possible at very specific temperatures. A common example of this technology is an MRI machine. 

In 2021, I posted an article on which technologies I thought would impact us most over the next 5-10 years.  

Before I get back to superconductors, here's what I wrote in 2021 about my top 5 technologies: 

1. Compute Power is going to increase, and the ability to brute force problems will create new possibilities. Quantum computing will become more important and likely available for commercial use. 
2. New and better AI platforms will transition AI from a tool for specialists to a commodity for everyday people - it won't just be Artificial Intelligence, it will be Amplified Intelligence (helping people make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually measure and improve performance). 
3. Blockchain and authenticated provenance are going to become more important as the world becomes increasingly digital. Trust and transparency will be important as indelible logs are needed for finance, medical, armies, etc.
4. IoT will become more pervasive, enabling near digital omniscience as everything becomes a sensor that transmits data up the chain. 
5. Mass customization will become the norm instead of simple mass production as hardware, data, and AI continues to improve products, medicine, custom supplements, and just about everything else. 

 via - "What Technologies Are Going To Most Impact The Next 5-10 Years?" - August 2021

At that same time, the chip shortage massively affected the supply chain. My takeaway was that building and running intelligent AI systems takes a lot of computing power, and as more competitors enter the scene, the cost to play will increase, and so do the stakes of winning and losing. 

To a certain extent, the AI arms race has become a chip arms race. To nations, it is a cold-war-level existential threat.

Advancements in room-temperature superconductors would create a snowball of changes that would affect technology everywhere, and change the makeup of that chip arms race. 

Better conductivity means less heat dissipation, smaller wires, more efficient and faster movement, and smaller tools. That means your processors won't heat up, motors will be able to handle higher torque/weight, and it also becomes a step in making quantum processors a reality. More practically, it means better and longer-lasting batteries, significantly less waste, and a massive jump in robotics. It also means 50x-100x faster chips. 

You could argue it's the "holy grail" of material science. But, we haven't addressed the implications of those new technological possibilities. Electrical grids would be more efficient. Data centers would not only be cheaper but more efficient. And on the more sci-fi side of it, we could create superfast levitating trains which would travel with less friction. 

The chip arms race would still exist because human nature means we will always fight for the best technology and advantages. However, when new technologies are created, their predecessors get cheaper and more accessible. That means more people experimenting with better technology, which often leads to unexpected boons. 

Every technological advancement makes technology as a whole more accessible and prevalent. 

Whether this breakthrough ends up being scalable and sustainable is up for debate, but it's already a sign of progress. 

Onwards!