Capitalogix

Just Sardines In A Tincan...

I fly a lot.

In fact, I hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines in 2019 (back when frequent flyer programs were about flying frequently rather than credit card spending).

It is 2024, and I am now just below 5.5M.  That means I averaged a little over 100,000 miles per year, even through the COVID shutdown.

Yes, I expect that my travel will slow down.  But as I traveled, I didn't expect it to continue at the pace it did. 

Nonetheless, it has been good for me, and the time spent traveling has been productive.

I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

As you probably noticed, Airline Status means much less today than it used to (which is why it feels even more important to get).  Every week, the airlines seem to make the space between seats smaller while the time it takes to find overhead luggage space gets shorter.  It seems like most airlines could change its slogan to "We are not happy until you're not happy."

Yet the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

It looks more like a set from Star Trek than the hellscape passengers complain about regularly. 

What about the boarding process? 

Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

via CGP Grey

If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

via Sam Chui

You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour ... What a bargain!

Of course, you could also use Zoom.  Times are changing!

I fly a lot.

In fact, I hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines in 2019 (back when frequent flyer programs were about flying frequently rather than credit card spending).

It is 2024, and I am now just below 5.5M.  That means I averaged a little over 100,000 miles per year, even through the COVID shutdown.

Yes, I expect that my travel will slow down.  But as I traveled, I didn't expect it to continue at the pace it did. 

Nonetheless, it has been good for me, and the time spent traveling has been productive.

I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

As you probably noticed, Airline Status means much less today than it used to (which is why it feels even more important to get).  Every week, the airlines seem to make the space between seats smaller while the time it takes to find overhead luggage space gets shorter.  It seems like most airlines could change its slogan to "We are not happy until you're not happy."

Yet the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

It looks more like a set from Star Trek than the hellscape passengers complain about regularly. 

What about the boarding process? 

Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

via CGP Grey

If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

via Sam Chui

You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour ... What a bargain!

Of course, you could also use Zoom.  Times are changing!

The Evolution of Michael Jackson

This lighthearted post has something to do with artificial ...  but nothing to do with artificial intelligence.

While doing my weekly reading and web browsing (which is how I pick those links you probably think an algorithm selects), I happened upon a post about Michael Jackson on Twitter (now called X), and I enjoyed it (or at least was drawn to click and watch it). 

I grew up a huge Michael Jackson fan. As a kid, I watched the Jackson 5 Saturday morning cartoon show. His albums were the soundtrack to my college years. Later, my first wife and I saw him in concert several times. We shared that love with our youngest son, Zach. 

It's funny to look back on, but Zach used to dance to Michael Jackson's songs on stage at his Elementary School talent shows or at random restaurants. There was no choreography ... but lots of movement. I still smile when I think about it. 

You might smile (or shake your head) while watching this short video chronicling the evolution of  Michael Jackson's face changes from birth to death. 

 

via MikeBeast

It's a staggering difference. I won't pretend to know what led him to make the changes, but they're substantial. 

That being said, his music is both timely and timeless - which is very rare. He managed to make music in each era that fit in with the times but still felt very Michael Jackson. 

 

via MikeBeast

 

Gone too soon!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 18th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• OpenAI's Product Page for Sora – Their AI Model That Creates Video From Text (with Examples). (OpenAI)
• You Are Not Late to Artificial Intelligence. (TheAlgorithmicBridge)
• ‘Mental Time Travel' Can Help You Make Better Decisions. (LifeHacker)
• ‘The Alternative' is Just the Book Economists Should Read — And Won't. (Washington Post)
• Musk Says Putin Can't Lose in Ukraine, Opposes Further Funding – “Prolonging the War Does Not Help Ukraine.” (Bloomberg)

 

Trading Links:

• OpenAI Staff Granted Permission to Liquidate Shares at Astounding $86 Billion Valuation - Insider Report. (Cryptopolitan)
• What Sam Altman's Chimerical Trillions Say About AI Hype. (Axios)
• The US-China Chip War is Escalating. (Apricitas)
• In Memory of Byron Wien, Here Is a 2024 "Ten Surprises" Tribute. (BlueFoxAdvisors)
• How Big Is the Commercial Real Estate Mess in the U.S.? Expect Losses in the Trillions of Dollars Over Time. (TheInstitutionalRiskAnalyst)

 

Predictions for 2024

At the beginning of 2022, I shared VisualCapitalist's predictions for the year, and then at the end of the year, we checked to see how well they did. 

Since they posted a 2024 version, I figured, why not do it again? 

via VisualCapitalist.

You can find forecasts anywhere ... but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.

That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart. 

Some are pretty easy to predict - like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?

On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.

I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?

Some New AI Tools I've Been Hearing Good Things About

At the core of Capitalogix's existence is a commitment to systemization and automation. 

Consequently, I play with a lot of tools.  I think of this as research, discovery, and skill-building.  There is a place for that in my day or week.  However, few of those tools make it into my real work routine.

Here is a list of some of the tools that I recommend.  I'm not saying I use them regularly ... but in some cases, I should (it reminds me of some exercise equipment I have). 

Since the late 90's, I've been collecting tools to make my business more efficient and my life easier. 

It's a little embarrassing, but my most popular YouTube video is an explainer video on Dragon NaturallySpeaking from 13 years ago.  It was (and still is) dictation software, but from a time before your phone gave you that capability. 

Today, I have more tools than I know what to do with, but here are a few that keep coming up in conversations. 

Daily.AI - AI Newsletters

We've launched a new newsletter that is AI-curated by Daily.ai.  It matches the tone and style of my newsletters, gets good engagement, and (honestly) looks much better than what we put out.

Our handwritten newsletters still do better on some metrics - but it's a nice addition and a promising technology. 

For transparency, our handwritten newsletters get around 45% opens, and 10% click-throughs and our new AI newsletter is averaging around 38% opens but around 30% click-throughs.  Our normal newsletter isn't focused on links - which is why the click-through isn't as good. 

That said, Daily.AI is a great tool that creates compelling two-way communication with your audience way easier and cheaper (time, money, and effort) than something similar done manually.

This is an example of how people won't get replaced by AI ... people will get replaced by people who use AI better. 

Opus.pro - AI Video Repurposing 

Opus.pro takes your long-form video content and cuts it into short-form content that you can post as teasers to other channels like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, or Instagram Reels. 

For me, I tend to do more long-form content naturally.  I go on a podcast, speak at a conference, or to a mastermind group.  I end up with a 30-minute+ video that I don't have the time or interest in using.  This tool allows me to find the best parts quickly - and still allows editing to make it perfect. 

For someone interested in really pursuing video, it's not worth it.  If you're interested in being present online, and not worried about making it your career, this is a great tool to streamline and systematize your process. 

Type.AI 

Type.AI is an interesting AI-first document editing tool.  At its core, Type is a faster, better, and easier way to write.

A lot of people are using chat GPT for some editing.  Type is a good example of a next-generation tool that incorporates ChatGPT and other LLMs under the surface.  It is aware of what you are doing and lets you know what it can do. 

Type jumpstarts the creative process and banishes the blank page.  Underneath its gorgeous UI are powerful features for generating ideas, querying your document, experimenting with different models, and easily formatting your work.

The point is that with a tool like this, you don't have to be good at prompt engineering.  The tool does that for you – so you can focus on the writing.

GetVoila.AI 

Voilà is an all-in-one AI assistant in a browser extension.  That means it goes with you everywhere you go on the web and supercharges your browser by making it use ChatGPT to do what it does best without you having to do more than check what is available.

 

Voilà simplifies the process of working with the content of websites and URLs, making it easy to convert them into various types of content, summarize them, or extract key information.  For example, if I am watching a YouTube video, I can right-click and choose "Summarize" - it creates a short video summary from the transcript.  Or, while writing this sentence, a simple right-click lets me choose: Improve, Fix grammar, Make longer, Make shorter, Summarize, Simplify, Rephrase, or Translate.

 

This is more useful than I thought.  I use it well ... then forget about it.  When I use it again, I often find that it got better.  I think you will find that with a lot of the tools these days.

 Don't worry about how well you use tools like this.  It is enough that you get better at using tools like these to accomplish what you really want.

Explore a little.  Then, let me know what you found worth sharing.

How Long Do You Have Left?

We only have a limited time on this earth - and a lot of it is taken by frivolous activities. 

How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones ... or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

The answer is a lot.

via dailyinfographic

Nine years in front of entertainment devices - another 10.5 years spent working.  You get the idea.

If you have goals you want to accomplish, aspirational travel, and lifestyle plans - this really puts the idea of finding and living your passion in perspective. 

Do you have the time to waste it?

VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

 

via visualcapitalist
 

I turned 60 this July, so I only have 20 years left, according to this calculator.   I expect more!

There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 ... but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

While these numbers seem pretty high, there are two things to consider. First, COVID heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates went up. That likely won't continue (though it will likely continue to affect your insurance premiums and pension benefits). 

Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which likely differ from you (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

Finally, I think Purpose is one of the most important catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire ... not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

If you're not growing, you're dying!

Social Media Is Changing Everything ... 10+ Years Later

In 2009, I wrote an article highlighting the audacious amount of texts and data my then-16-year-old son was using compared to the rest of the family ... It's funny to look back on.

Here is an excerpt from that post. 

_______

My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

 Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

• My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
• I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
• My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
• My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

_______

Fourteen years later, I send more text messages than my son, and we both use multiples of that amount of data a month. 

I also remember scoffing at my son having his phone on hand at meetings - that it was a distraction. And yet, here I am, phone on my desk at meetings. But, e-mail is just as important as it was in 2009. 

One of the things we miss in discussions about generations is that the trends of the younger generation are often adopted by the previous - even if they're not as tech literate. 

Technology changes cultures for better or worse ... but it's hard to look at the impact of social media and believe it hasn't been deleterious. 

The promise and peril of technology! 

The Surreal World of Deepfakes And Deep AI

Deep Learning excels in analyzing pictures & videos and creating facsimiles or combining styles.  People are using generative AI tools like ChatGPT or Midjourney increasingly frequently.  And there is an explosion of simple tools (like the Deep Dream Generator or DeepAI) that use Convolutional Neural Networks to combine your photo with an art style (if you want to do it on your phone, check out Prisma).   Here are some example photos.

via SubSubRoutine

The same foundation that allows us to create these cool art amalgamations also can create deepfakes.  A Deepfake is precisely what it sounds like ... they use "Deep Learning" to "Fake" a recording.  For example, a machine learning technique called a Generative Adversarial Network can be used to superimpose images onto a source video.  That is how they made this fun (and disturbing) Deepfake of Jennifer Lawrence and Steve Buscemi.

 

Another interesting technology can create AI-powered replicas of someone that don't just look and sound like them – they can respond like them too.  Examples of this are seen in tools like Replica Studios or Replika.  One of the artistic uses people have been exploring recently is getting unlikely characters to sing famous songs.  These chatbots have also been used by lonely men and women to create virtual paramours. 

The three basic uses of deep learning (described above) are being combined to create a lot of real mainstream applications ... and the potential to create convincing fakes.

Deepfakes can be fun and funny ... but they also create real concerns.  They're frequently used for more "nefarious" purposes (e.g., to create fake celebrity or revenge porn and to make important figures say things they never said).  You've likely seen videos of Trump or Biden created with this technology.   But it is easy to imagine someone faking evidence used at trial, trying to influence business transactions, or using this to support or slander causes in the media.

As fakes get better and easier to produce, they will likely be used more often. 

On a more functional note, you can use these technologies to create convincing replicas of yourself.  You could use that replica to record videos, send voicemails, or participate in virtual meetings for you. While I don't encourage you to use it without telling people you are, even just using the technology puts you a step ahead. 

Is It The News Or Propaganda?

There is nothing wrong with your television.  We will control all that you see and hear. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive.  Enjoy ....

 
The original, from The Outer Limits TV show was: 

There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image; make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the outer limits.

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe, so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

Since the past election cycle, we've seen a massive uptick in distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

To a certain degree, this is understandable and justified. Here is an example of the power of the media focused on a message.  Click to watch.

 

via Courier News

Propaganda has always been an issue, and almost everyone does it; governments, companies, etc. Luckily, it's easier to see today than in the past, but unluckily it's also more pervasive and insidious than before. 

It's to the point where if you watch the news you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news you're uninformed. 

The above segment portrays a rosy picture of Amazon's efforts to protect its workers while delivering essentials to the struggling homebound masses. This comes while Amazon has come under massive fire for removing some of its protections. 

Honestly, I use Amazon and, in my opinion, this isn't a massive breach of trust. News stations have a lot of time to fill, they often have sponsored content.

That being said, it's something to be cognizant of - not necessarily offended by.

Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens. It's becoming even more of an issue with AI-based depictions of presidents in both image and video.

It's a great reminder that what you're seeing and hearing is carefully manufactured, and hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble. 

I think one of the worst consequences of the past few years is the unwillingness of mass swaths of Americans to listen to voices they disagree with. The internet has already created echo chambers, but it's being exacerbated by vitriol. As a result, I think we're seeing the fringe of both parties move further away from the middle. 

What do you think?

Meet The Jetsons: 60 Years Later

Since my last name is Getson, I often get "Jetson" at restaurants.  As the CEO of a tech company focused on innovative technologies, it somehow feels fitting. 

Despite only airing for one season (from 1962-1963), The Jetsons remains a cultural phenomenon.  It supposedly takes place in 2062, but in the story, the family's patriarch (George Jetson) was born on July 31, 2022.  Not too long ago. 

Obviously, this is a whimsical representation of the future - spurred on by fears of the Soviet Union and the space race.  But it captured the imagination of multiple generations of kids.  Flying cars, talking dogs, robot maids, and food printing ... what's not to love?

 

I don't intend to dissect the show about what they got right or wrong, but I do want to briefly examine what they imagined based on where we are today. 

For example, while flying cars aren't ubiquitous yet (like in the Jetsons), we already have driverless cars.  It's likely that by 2062, driverless cars will be pervasive, even if flying cars aren't.  But, frankly, who knows?  That is still possible.

Meanwhile, both George and Jane work very few hours a week due to the increase in technology.  While that's a future we can still envision, despite massive technological improvements, we've chosen to increase productivity (instead of working less and keeping output at 1960 levels).  Even with the expected growth of AI, I still believe that humans will choose to pursue purposeful work.

The Jetsons also underemphasize the wireless nature of today's world.  George still has to go into the office, and while they have video phones, it's still a piece of hardware connected to a wall, instead of mobile and wireless.  2062 is far enough away that holographic displays are still a very real possibility.

Likewise, while we don't yet have complex robot maids (like Rosie), we already have Roombas... and both AI and Robotics are improving exponentially.

Meanwhile, we are in the process of creating cheap and sustainable food printing and drone delivery services ... which makes the Jetsons look oddly prescient. 

And, remember, there are still 40 years for us to continue to make progress.  So, while I think it's doubtful cities will look like the spaceports portrayed in the cartoon ... I suspect that you'll be impressed by how much further we are along than even the Jetsons imagined.

Not only is the rate of innovation increasing, but so is the rate at which that rate increases.  It's exponential. 

We live in exciting times!