My kids are getting older. In fact, not only are they both adults, but they're both married. Father's Day looks a little different than it used to.

As I look back, I realize that there was an investment I made that paid off in a big way, and I want to share it with you.
Like many parents, I wanted to teach my children that, to a large extent, they control what happens to them. One of the first ways I did that was to set up a "compensation system" for them to earn video games.
Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games. I tried something different. Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books. Here is a photo from way back then.

Paid With Play.
Here's how it worked. When they were younger, 10 books were enough to earn a small game. When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished the requisite number of books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store or game store for them to choose any game they wanted.
When they finished a hundred books, they got a bonus of earning the next game system. That meant if they had a Nintendo, they could now also get a PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360.
How Can You Encourage a Jump to the Next Level?
There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortable reading a certain type of book, and didn't want to read the kind of books that I read. So, I created a bonus system that counted a particular book as three books. I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.
It Is a Great Way to Learn About Your Kids.
I also used the bookstore visits to gauge how the boys were doing. For example, I might say, "I notice that you read five books in that series, maybe you'd like this book". Or, "That sure is a lot of science fiction; what was the last biography you read?" For the most part, though, I didn't care what they read. The key was to get them to want to choose certain books for their own reasons. Ultimately, their preference meant they were learning to love reading.
It Puts Them In Control of Their Destiny and Rewards.
My younger son likes competition. He also broke or misplaced many things. So, to earn back the Game Boy unit he lost, I challenged him to read five books in five days. These weren't easy books either. It was designed to stretch him, and also to teach him that he could read a book a night. The bet was that he either finished all the books in the allocated time, or none of them counted towards games or Game Boys. On the other hand, if he read a book a night for two weeks, not only would he get his Game Boy back, but the books would also count towards a game. It worked like a charm, and we were both happy.
So, Who Got the Better Bargain?
As they started to get into their teenage years, I needed to up the ante a little. So, 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice. Both boys cashed in, and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad.
I got what I wanted, though; both my boys love reading, and know that they can accomplish anything they put their minds to … one step at a time.
Here is a recent picture of us. All of us love reading ... and none of us needs diapers.

Speaking of diapers, I've leveled up to become a grandfather. Watching my oldest become a father is the ultimate dividend.
I still remember my father joking with me to be careful of what I said about him, because I would have kids who would do the same to me.
Watching my granddaughter grow, explore, and enjoy the world is an incredible blessing.
Plus, I know Karma is a Bitch. ... wait till she starts using everything she's learned against him.
It is part of the cycle of life ... just like diapers.
The Benner Cycle: How Not To Predict Markets
When I first became interested in trading, I would often consult many traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. I particularly liked the Stock Trader's Almanac.
While there is real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one of them might hit the bullseye.
Still, it seems better than using astrology to trade.
Want something easy to predict? Traders love patterns ... from the simple head-and-shoulders to Fibonacci sequences and the Elliot Wave Theory.
Here's an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, in 1875. That year, he released a book titled "Benners Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices," and in it, he shared a now relatively famous chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim that it's been accurately predicting the ups and downs of the market for over 100 years. Let's check it out.
Here's what it does get right ... markets go up, and then they go down ... and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high ... It's hard to call that a competitive advantage.
Mostly, you're looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.
However, it was close to the dot-com bust and the 2008 crash, so even if you sold a little early, you'd have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.
The truth is that we use cycle analysis in our live trading models. However, it is a lot more rigorous and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on—and what to ignore.
Just as humans are good at seeing patterns where there are none ... they tend to see cycles that aren't anything but coincidences.
This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommends something, it doesn't make it a good recommendation. Those models do some things well. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn't the area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals ... yet.
We're seeing bots improve at running businesses and writing code, but off-the-shelf tools like ChatGPT are still known for generating hallucinations and overconfidence.
Be careful out there.
Posted at 06:29 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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