Just finished speaking at an algorithmic trading conference, called QuantWorld, in Toronto.
AI, big data, and high-performance computing are getting cooler ... in a nerdy way.
At this show, data and methods were the focus ... showing a shift from hardware and low-latency.
Skynet is turning on!
Woo Hoo!
I've recently been spending more time with economists, while we're not always on the same page when it comes to the interplay with trading, I still find economics interesting.
Trump's impact on global trade and politics will also be interesting to quantify.
Take a look at the world economy divided by region (Mexico is part of Latin America for the sake of this graphic).
via howmuch
Some thoughts:
It will be interesting to see the way Trump's tariffs will affect the world. There are potentially hundreds of billions in annual revenue that would be affected.
Reminder: election day is this Tuesday.
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
A French team, Escalenta, put together a series of debunking videos called "DATA SCIENCE vs. FAKE".
Here are five that are short, educational, and entertaining.
These days, it's easy to be confused by fake news, misleading statistics, and hyperbole.
Hope this serves as a reminder to check your sources and remain healthily skeptical of random factoids delivered through the intertubes.
October has been tough on equity markets this year.
For example, the S&P 500 opened to a sea of red this past early last week.
McDonald's was one of the few green spots on that heat map. Which reminds me, Mickey D's is becoming a little more modern by adding online and touchscreen ordering.
For some context, the S&P is on pace for it's worst sell-off since 2010 ... while the NASDAQ hasn't been hit like this since post-Lehman in 2008.
Is it a correction or a blip?
Historically, midterm elections inspire uncertainty among investors that dissipates quickly as soon as they're over. Once that uncertainty is resolved, the S&P gains an average of 31% the following year.
Markets exist to trade ... and confusion is a primary catalyst. As such, many people believe the market will rally ... while others believe that the traditional midterm effect could be blunted.
For all the confusion in today's society, it's good to see that some things don't change.
Onwards.
I was recently on Jordan Van Trump's Farm Tank podcast.
On the podcast, we talked about artificial intelligence & trading, the Cowboys, my trip to Columbia, and a bunch of other things.
Worth a listen. Check it out.
Here are some highlights:
I'll be at The Van Trump conference, in Kansas City, on November 28th. Hope to see you there.
We often hear millennials complaining about today's job climate.
How can I get job experience if I can't even get a job to get experience?
Is there any validity to that belief system?
Apparently, yes.
According to TalentWorks, after analyzing a random sample of over 95,000 job listings they discovered that 61% of full-time "entry-level" jobs require 3+ years of experience.
via TalentWorks
Turns out "Experience Inflation" is a real thing. Brings context towards the shift away from traditional education I mentioned a couple months ago.
TalentWorks also found that three, five, and eight years are the magic numbers for upgrading your job title.
Mid-level jobs open up to you after five years, and senior level jobs open up after eight.
I guess Millennials get a pass on this one ... just this once.
With that said, we've had great success with the few high school interns we hired. Perhaps the passion and interest that caused them to look for serious work, so early, was a great way for them to get experience (and an early indicator of true talent)?
Today, the technology universe is more uniform than you'd think. All of the top 20 technology companies are based in America and China.
Since 2013, China has added 5 to their side and America has lost 1.
Here is the list.
It's also interesting to note that there's a steep dropoff between the "giants" and the companies lower down the ladder. There isn't a single company with a valuation between $200 billion and $450 billion.
To put it in a different perspective, here's a pie chart showing the market capitalization of the top 5 tech companies in comparison to the bottom 282 S&P 500 companies.
via Michael Batnick
It can be hard for a tech company to break into the upper echelons. However, with tech, change is the only constant.
What are some of the companies you think have a chance to enter the realm of these giants?
Eight Major Forces Shaping Our Global Economy
In trading, the holding period (or "time in trade") is shrinking. Consequently, there is less focus on predicting markets ... and more focus on determining which techniques are making money most predictably.
Markets are not the same as the economy ... and on a macro scale, it is possible to understand and predict the major forces shaping our global economy.
Jeff Desjardins, of the Visual Capitalist, recently highlighted some of the major forces that are changing our global economy. Here is a summary.
The Tech Invasion ... and its Accelerating Progress
If you were to look at the biggest companies globally - almost all of them are in tech. Fifty years ago, the largest companies were in commodities (like oil, steel, etc.). Even 5 years ago, the biggest companies were widely "goods" centric.
But it's more than just the biggest companies. We're experiencing a technological revolution in many subspaces - AI, 3D printing, gene editing, quantum computing, etc.
Yet, for all the change and disruption we've experienced until today - understand that it is going to get faster, and more pronounced, in the future.
And, it isn't just the tech that is new. The pace of its adoption across industries is a game-changer as well.
via Visual Capitalist
We are at a point where new technology often gets released before the previous iteration can fully take hold and mature.
It is not just trading that is getting faster, product cycles are compressing, and foundational technologies are disrupted and replaced (or made obsolete) faster than ever as well.
Even global adoption cycles have become viral and near instantaneous. Think about how fast Pokemon Go (AR) got adopted, or new Smartphones became mainstream.
The Evolution of Money, a Changing Wealth Landscape, ... and China
Money's definition is changing. Cash is becoming less common (with the increasing use of credit cards, electronic payments, and payment services like Paypal, Venmo, and ApplePay). In addition, the public has maintained its interest in cryptocurrencies.
Ultimately, our perception of money may radically change how global economies work.
On top of that, money is changing hands, the ultra-wealthy are from different industries than before, and the wealthiest countries & companies widely influence politics.
Consider the economic rise of China. Even though we've been watching China grow for decades, the scope of its population and economic impact can still be difficult to understand. China has over 100 cities with more than 1,000,000 inhabitants. Even scarier, perhaps, is that China now has more honor students than we have students.
Conclusion
Obviously, the global economy is changing. To see more about the eight forces shaping it, read this.
We live in interesting times.
Onwards.
Posted at 06:52 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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