Capitalogix

How Long Does It Take To Get 50 Million Users?

Cool tech often gets adopted by porn and gambling before more mainstream uses.

Porn was the launchpad for video streaming, mobile-enabled sites, VR, and (unfortunately) pop-up ad technologies. 

With that said, the next chart surprised me.  It shows the number of years it took for various products to gain 50 million users.

 

 

Pornhub tracks data like its business depends on it.  Well, it is the number one site for pornography.  What does that mean? In 2018, over 5,517,700,000 hours of porn was watched on their site. That’s approximately 6,298 centuries of video.

Moreover, last year, it got  33.5 BILLION visits. That’s 1,064 people a second, or 92 million a day.  To put that in perspective, that's more people than live in the entire country of Germany.

Here are some additional factoids about its use.

• 4403 Petabytes of data transferred (574 MB of data for every person on earth)
• Consumed more bandwidth than the entire internet in 2002
• Stormy Daniels was the number 1 "trend" search in 2018  (followed by Fortnite ...)
• 4k ultra-hd overtook 1080p in search trends

 

via Pornhub

For the full list of stats click here. 

They are so popular, it is almost obscene.

A.I. in Film: A Retrospective

AI has been around in science fiction for over 1oo years. As it becomes reality, it's amusing to look at different depictions and attempt to connect the dots. 

AI first broke onto the film scene with Metropolis in 1927. "Maria" the evil robot disguising herself as a human played on many human fears; deception, lack of control, and perhaps most importantly being replaced.

Maria represented a future that was bleak and set the foundation for AI in cinema. Since then, there have been approximately 100 movies starring AI.

According to Enlighten Digital,  52% of movies portray AI positively, which means it's about 50/50, and there has been a 144% increase in AI movies since 2010 - so we're becoming more saturated with AI.

According to a study by Cambridge, seeing more films portraying robots (whether positive or negative) is associated with more positive attitudes toward robots. This is in line with the theory that the more exposure one has with "out-group" members (i.e. robots, or people of other races) the more positive one's attitude toward them. 

 

(Click to view Full Size) via NovaStor 

The depiction of AI has always been a reflection of its time ... as our values, ambitions, and technology has changed, so has on-screen AI. 

So what does today's AI look like?

On HBO, we have Westworld. In movies, iRobot, Chappie, and Blade Runner 2049 ... it's clear the promise and the peril of AI has continued to evolve.

These movies all have different tones but there's a trope that remains common from that initial film in 1927 to films in 2018. 

We're always imagining that next step. What's going to happen as AI becomes (in some ways) smarter than us? What's going to happen when our creations surpass our control? What's going to happen if the line between human and robot blurs?

There are a lot of advancements in real-life, in respect to AI. As such, there is a lot of movement on AI ethics, and how to best limit or best enable AI. 

In film, we gravitate toward two extremes - utopias and dystopias. In real life, we can recognize those extremes are unlikely ... but the effect of AI is still profound. 

We're expanding a technology with the ability to radically change our world - for better or worse - so it's important to keep a purpose-driven approach. We can't lose track of humanity in the pursuit of AI. 

Metropolis's final title card (that first AI movie from 1927)  still rings true ... "The Mediator Between the Head and the Hands Must Be the Heart"

 

Onwards!

Gil Brandt and the Innovation of Modern Football

I'm regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking that I see in football.

I've written posts about how much regular businesses could learn from watching football teams. That post talks about how even high school teams have a position-by-position depth chart. They have a game plan for their next opponent. They practice plays on both offense and defense. They watch game film of their past games and future opponents. And, they coach the team as a team, and the players individually. 

Often, simple ideas, applied consistently, are enough to win.

Last night I was at a Dallas Cowboys playoff game (note that is not an oxymoron) ... and I took a picture with this guy.

 

 

I see him at every game ... and every game he wears a different creative and well-thought-out costume. He sits on the 50-yard line, He wears Ferragamo shoes and a nice watch. Yet, something about this game captures his imagination.

Yesterday, I also had the honor of meeting Gil Brandt at the game. For those of you not familiar with him, he was the vice president of player personnel (or Chief Scout) of the Dallas from 1960 to 1989.  He helped Dallas grow into one of the most powerful and popular sports franchises in America. His innovative management and personnel systems are standard operating procedure today for many teams at the professional and collegiate levels nationwide. 

  

 

Many consider him the architect of the Dallas Cowboys. I'm not talking about the stadium or headquarters, I'm talking about their teams and ideas that were the catalyst to "America's Team".  I took this from his Wikipedia page.

He helped pioneer many of the scouting techniques used by NFL clubs today,^[2] such as:

• Creating a new scouting and evaluation system for prospects, which would later spread throughout the NFL. In the NFL Films' documentary series Finding Giants, Ernie Accorsi mentioned how then-general manager George Young built the New York Giants scouting process based on the Cowboys system.^[3]
• Using computers for scouting and talent evaluations. To achieve this level of automatization, the Cowboys had to systematically define which were the traits, measurable qualities and skills that could be expressed into numbers and formulas in order for a computer to understand them.^[4]
• Finding potential prospects in other sports such as: Bob Hayes, Cornell Green, Peter Gent, Toni Fritsch, Percy Howard, Ken Johnson, Ron Howard, Wade Manning, Manny Hendrix and Mac Percival. The Cowboys also set up hospitality suites for coaches at the NCAA basketball tournaments.^[5]
• Brandt was one of the first talent scouts to look outside of the United States and Canada for potential players. Kicker Toni Fritsch was discovered during a European tour.^[6]
• Made unconventional draft choices in lower rounds based on potential, even though at the time it wasn't known if the players would ever be a part of the National Football League. For example: Roger Staubach, Herschel Walker and Chad Hennings.
• The use of psychology tests to identify the mental and personality make-up of prospects.^[7]
• Finding players in the undrafted free agent and small college talent pool, such as Drew Pearson, Cliff Harris, and Everson Walls.^[8]
• Helped to create the NFL Scouting Combine as a centralization of the scouting evaluation process.

 

Gil Brandt is one step closer to joining the NFL's ultimate pantheon – The Pro Football Hall of Fame.  He has been nominated as a contributor finalist for the Class of 2019. The contributor category recognizes "individuals who made outstanding contributions to professional football in capacities other than playing or coaching."

He's an inspiration. Not only did he innovate how teams draft and measure talent ... he's the guy who figured out how to make cheerleaders an iconic symbol of a team and the game itself.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 30th, 2018

Christmas Eve saw Dow's historic low ... but it was immediately followed with a 1086 point rally (its largest single-day gain). The S&P and Dow both rallied approximately 5%.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links

• A Nobel Prize-winning Psychologist Says Most People Don't Really Want to Be Happy. (Quartz)
• There is No Such Thing as Conscious Thought. (Scientific American)
• Automated Cyber Attacks are the next Big Threat. Ever Hear of 'Review Bombing'? (Entrepreneur)
• NASA's Scientists Formed a Club to Dream up Uses for AI like Self-replicating Robots and Harpooning Comets. (Quartz)
• A Chinese Company Said It Created a Photo with Such a High Resolution that You Can Zoom from Thousands of Meters Away to See People's Facial Expressions. (BusinessInsider)

 

 

Trading Links

• Alan Greenspan: Investors Should Prepare for the Worst. (CNN)
• 5 Charts that Explain the Global Economy in 2018. (WEForum)
• The 7 Most Anticipated IPOs in 2019. (Fool)
• Wall Street Quietly Shelves Its Bitcoin Dreams. (Bloomberg)
• After a $2 Billion Company Bonus, Every Employee at Juul is Now a Millionaire. (RobbReport)

Setting Yourself Up For Success

We're about to usher in a new year – along with its promise and pressure.

We get a fresh start.  We look forward to what we will achieve – but history says we rarely achieve everything we hope (it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for).

So, dream big dreams!

Personally, I’m excited about 2019. Despite the volatile market and uncertain political climate, Capitalogix has spent almost 20 years preparing for where we are today. 

Regardless of the outcome, we are doing things that seemed like science fiction even a few years ago.  

I commissioned this image to remind our team to keep shooting higher.

 

 

Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.

In the spirit of New Year's Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.

Commit to your bigger, directional compass, goals. 

Once you know what your long-term goal is, it is relatively easy to plan out the steps you need to achieve that goal.  Achieving smaller goals reinforces success, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.

Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Sensitive).

It's not "I want to lose weight this year" it's "I want to exercise at least three times a week and track my calories daily so I lose at least 1 pound each month."

Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you. 

If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal. This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control on your victory.  This also means that you don't need to tell others your goal too soon. Studies show that when you announce your intention to a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of you succeeding. 

Ask yourself: 

Are the people around you the right people? Are you putting your money where your mouth is? Are you taking ownership of your actions, even when you can find excuses not to?

It's okay to misstep, it's okay to get stuck - but recognize what you've done and move forward. 

Often the most frustrating thing that any of us feel on a regular basis is to want something really bad, and not be able to get it right away.

It's getting so that it's increasingly rare to find people who are truly willing to put in the requisite time necessary to get the traits or items they want.  Our world today is trying to teach us that we must get what we want immediately; that it's our right.  And that's why so many of us are jealous, smoke or drink, are overweight, use drugs, etc. ...

Life is NOT like school.

In school, you can trick yourself into thinking you're doing great if you cram for exams and get decent scores. It is possible to get fairly good grades for a while that way.

But you don't learn it.  You're likely to just remember it until the exam is over... maybe.

In school, you can fool the system and yourself.  In the rest of the world, success leaves clues (and an imprint on you and your behavior patterns).

Real life is like a farm.

On the farm, you must choose what to plant.  Then, you must move the rocks, buy the seeds, till the soil, plant the seeds, buy and maintain the equipment, pull weeds, keep the pests away, water the crops, fertilize, etc.  And, for the most part, it’s not one and done ... you need to keep up with what’s needed every day!

 



Follow the plan, and with some luck, you’ll harvest a decent crop at the end of the season.

Life is like this, too.  You can't "cram" in life. 

Don't be fooled.  Overnight successes often take a lot longer than you’d think to gestate.

Luck often takes a lot work.  

Put the effort in today and you'll get luckier and luckier.  Will it be immediate?  Probably not.  Beat this into your head... Anything truly worth having is worth the time, the effort, and the sacrifice you need to invest in order to get it.

My grandkids one day will look back and say "Wow, our grandpa sure was in the right place at the right time." And to a certain degree, they're right ... but it took a lot of work to be this lucky. 

It's also important (once you've accomplished your goal) to set new goals. Capitalogix has a 20-year plan from today, and that's because I never got comfortable with what we'd accomplished.

If you're standing still, you're moving backward. 

Here's to a successful 2019 and an even more successful 2040.  

Onwards!

How Does America Use Its Land?

America is big and pretty heavily populated.  Surprisingly, 28% of the land is owned by the government (check out this YouTube video). 

As you might guess, the eastern US holds almost no federal land while the Western US has states that are primarily federal land (Nevada is 84.9% federal land). 

Bloomberg had an interesting series of infographics that covered America's land use and relative profitability.

To start, can you guess what takes up the most space ... 

 

Cows. 

 

Over 41% of the land in the contiguous US revolves around livestock and livestock feed. The farmland used to feed us is an afterthought in comparison - it makes sense when people talk about cows' environmental effect. 

Dave Merrill and Lauren Leatherby via Bloomberg

Urban areas make up only 3.6% of land use - but four out of five Americans live there (and this area accounts for about 40% of GDP). 

The map below gives us a rough idea of the split of U.S. land.  

Dave Merrill and Lauren Leatherby via Bloomberg

Urban growth is outpacing other categories, but we're also doing a good job of repairing forestland.  According to The Land Report magazine, the land owned by the top landowning families has grown to be larger than Florida - and is continuing to grow. 

There are a couple extrapolations that you can make from this information - but I'm curious  ... what do you take from this?

The Psychology Behind Gambling (and Everyday Traders)

Vegas and Wall Street share a lot in common. 

Over Time ... The House Wins

Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win.  In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.

Why does this happen?  The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incent people to play lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.

Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well.  Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win, 

The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.  

In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money - from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights and even the games themselves. 

Here is an infographic that lays it out for you. 

Bojoko via DailyInfographic

Most people aren't gamblers ... the fear of losing big inhibits them.  However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk-aversion when gambling. 

 

The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics. 

 

When you almost get it right - when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win - you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets ... because you're "so close". 

It's human nature to want to feel in control. 

This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing ... if you throw the dice in this particular way ... if you check your holdings at this time every day ... you have control. 

There is a big difference between causation and correlation. 

It is not hard to imagine that the majority of a trader's activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.  

 

Skill vs. Luck

There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.

In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill.  In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.

In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.

Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.

In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.

We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance ... Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that the majority of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.

Are you playing the right game?

 

A Look Back At The Future, Part 2

As the holiday season begins, I was thinking about my father.

I love him and miss him ... but, truth be told, I teased him mercilessly about being technologically challenged (especially around the holidays, when I'd buy him a new gadget –  only to roll on the floor laughing while watching him try to figure it out).

Karma is a bitch!  My Dad used to say "whatever you make fun of me for ... will happen to you." 

I didn't yet realize how fast the world was changing ... or how quickly I'd find it hard to keep up. 

In 2015 I wrote an article about this titled "A Look Back at The Future". 

It's only four years later ... and somehow my realizations seem out-dated.

It's not just me, it's everyone! 

Realize that human perception is linear, but technological growth isn't.

As technology progression evolves and quickens, it is going to get harder to keep up.

Check out this video from 1974 ... It shows Arthur C. Clarke making some impressive guesses about the future of technology.

 

 

Now that we're here, it may not seem like an impressive prediction ... but how cool was it that Arthur C. Clarke believed a computer would fit on a desk in 1974?   

Do you think that you can predict what a computer will look like in 2034? 

Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, etc. are all going to change the face and nature of computing and perhaps life itself. 

We live in exciting times!

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 2nd, 2018

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links 

• The 10 Best Books of 2018, According to Amazon.(BusinessInsider)
• Great Apes and Ravens Plan without Thinking. (Phys)
• Elon Musk: Ticket to Mars Will Cost about $200,000.(BigThink)
• Game of Thrones' Creator George R.R. Martin Assures Fans: Writing is Coming. (Wall Street Journal)
• Would a Universal Genetic Database Be a Crime-Solving Wonder, or an Orwellian Nightmare? (SingularityHub)

 

Trading Links

• Microsoft Passes Apple to Become Most Valuable U.S. Company. (MacRumors)
• 50 Companies to Watch in 2019. (Bloomberg)
• What Bear Markets Look Like. (AVC)
• International Stocks Will Beat US Stocks over next Decade: Vanguard Group. (CNBC)
• The World's 37 Richest, Healthiest, Happiest, and Most Prosperous Nations. (BusinessInsider)

 

 

Tackled on Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving!

My children came to town, and we continued our tradition of spending time together watching some football. The top photo is from 2008. 

 

After looking at this picture, I recognize the burden I impose on my sons.  Some would call it crushing. 

 

 

That's my oldest son, Ben. He's a good sport.

My youngest son, Zach, was happy to make sure that I got mine too. 

 

 

He still plays Rugby. 

I am thankful for my family, my company and that I continually face a better class of challenges ... forging a path to a bigger future.

What about you?