Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
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April 2025
April 20, 2025
Are We Alone In The Universe?
Last week, Astronomers announced the discovery of the most promising "hints" of life on an exoplanet, K2-18, 124 light years away.
While it would only be signs of phytoplankton and other microscopic marine life, it would still be a massive finding.
I tend to read a lot across a wide variety of sources. Recently, I've noticed a significant uptick in stories about aliens, UFOs, non-human intelligence, and non-human technology. In addition, several of my seemingly sane friends claim to have direct knowledge of projects and groups (funded by well-known billionaires) close to making very public announcements about missions, research, and discoveries in these areas, they hope will result in discontiguous innovations and asymmetric capabilities.
While I believe it's naive to assume that there's no other form of life in a universe as vast as what we understand ... I'm also highly skeptical of anyone who claims that they have specific knowledge or proof. With that said, I have seen enough stuff from people I trust to expect that our beliefs about these issues will shift massively in the very near future. As an example, check out Skywatch.ai, some of its videos, or this NewsNation broadcast.
Since we live in a time where technologies are rapidly advancing, I thought it might be interesting to test out an AI-powered chatbot designed to debunk conspiracy theories through evidence-based conversations. It is a spin-out project with roots at MIT and other top universities. Research shows that many people doubted or abandoned false beliefs after a short conversation with the DebunkBot.
I first heard of this tool through these two articles: Meet DebunkBot, The AI Chatbot that Will Debunk Any Conspiracies You Believe and AI Chatbot Shows Promise in Talking People Out of Conspiracy Theories.
Here is a link to the conversation I had with it about the belief "Life likely exists elsewhere in the Universe due to its vastness and the repeated conditions that can give rise to life." To my surprise, this tool concluded that the belief is not a conspiracy theory and reminded me that:
Science for the sake of knowing is one thing. Belief for the sake of hope, curiosity, or imagination is another. The search for "life" might actually help us discover something more valuable than what we thought we were searching for in the first place.
You can test your beliefs against DebunkBot's AI. Let me know how it goes and whether you changed your mind.
Meanwhile, Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the Universe.
As usual, it's well done, fun, and informative.
For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with the Drake and Seager equations.
The Drake equation estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy and the universe. It factors in variables such as habitable planets, the likelihood of life, intelligent life, and the duration of time a civilization sends signals into space.
The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation, focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect - for example, the number of observable stars/planets, the % have life, and the % chance of detectable bio-signature gas.
Click here to play with the Are We Alone in the Universe infographic.
For both equations, the infographic lets you look at various default options, but also enables you to change the variables based on your beliefs.
For example, the skeptic's default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy, which is still 924,000 in the universe. The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our universe.
Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the universe.
One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially influential numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space. Conservative estimates are 420 years, but optimistic estimates are 10,000 or more.
One other thing to consider is that some scientists believe that life is most likely to grow on planets with very high gravity, which would also make escaping their atmosphere for space travel nigh impossible.
If any aliens are reading this ... don't worry, I won't tell. But we will find out who you voted for in the last election.
April 13, 2025
The Value of Masterminds - And the Decision to Stop Attending Them
I have always valued masterminds for introducing me to new ideas, fresh perspectives, and individuals with diverse backgrounds and experiences.
For as long as I can remember, my calendar has been filled with the spaced repetition of a multitude of events. I am a fan of the rhythm of conferences, which gets you out of the office and away from day-to-day activities, gives you a chance to think about what you really want, and (perhaps most importantly) shifts what you believe is possible.
I also enjoy the intensity of live events and being in a “solution space” for concentrated periods of time.
In addition, I believe that a “different perspective” is an important part of creating extraordinary things.
Looking back, I got productive things done and benefitted from innovative new mutations that wouldn't have happened except by being outside of my default path (the rut that tricks us into feeling like we're thinking, even though we're simply running habitual processes on habitual stimuli that produce okay, but predictable, results).
The truth is that I liked and valued all the groups I attended regularly. Even if there was an event that didn't meet my expectations, the benefits and value I got from those groups made them easily worth the cost of attending (not only in terms of money … but also in time, time away from other things I cared about, and the lost opportunity cost of not being able to do other things while I was doing those things).
Nonetheless, as an experiment, I decided to stop going to Masterminds last year. I even called it a “Sabbatical”
The Power of Conscious Choice.
Here are a few of the reasons I made that decision.
To start, I wasn’t looking forward to going to events anymore … and often felt overwhelmed or constrained by my schedule.
Sometimes, less is more.
I've flown over 6 million actual butt-in-seat airline miles and averaged between 150 and 250 flights a year for decades.
However, upon reflection, even though most of what I was doing was stuff I started because I liked the community or the thought process … my schedule had become almost a habit, ritual, or superstition – rather than a choice.
And I wasn't thinking about the opportunity cost of going to these events anymore.
How Do You Figure Out What to Keep and What to Abandon?
When I talk to entrepreneurs about their businesses, part of my assessment process is to look at their teams and determine if there are weak performers or people who otherwise shouldn't be there. For example, people that may be high-performing but are bad for the culture. Even in great companies, there are a couple of people like that. But for the most part, high-performing teams have high-performing team members. And because the leaders don't want to lose capability, they leave things the way they are.
Perspective matters.
Instead of asking, “Who am I willing to cut? Try the opposite. Ask, “If I were in a boat and it capsized, who's the first person I would try to save?” Then ask yourself, “Why?”
The same technique works with product lines and time commitments.
So, last year, I decided not to attend any event unless I was speaking. Why? Because I wanted to free my time and take a break …. and I figured it would create a force function to highlight the things I felt compelled to add back faster than the year I gave myself.
I thought of it as an energy-based meritocracy.
However, a strange thing happened. For the most part, I haven’t missed anything enough to pull it back into the boat.
That doesn't mean that I don't miss some of the groups or people from time to time – and it certainly doesn't mean that I didn't find them valuable … But, there's a time and a place for everything (and it isn’t the Season for those things, for me, right now).
I'm spending my time and focus working on a different set of things right now that need intensity and priority.
There Is an Exception to Every Rule
Meanwhile, I started attending some personal development and coaching programs from Brendan Burchard this year. Part of my rationale was that I believed the content would help me deal with some significant issues I'm dealing with (or foresee dealing with).
I sense huge upside potential … as long as I'm in the right place in terms of mind, body, spirit, and strategy.
I already have so many tools in my toolbox that time away from certain other programs doesn't really deprive me of tools that I use regularly.
I saw the clearing as an opportunity to add a new set of tools and a different perspective that I hoped would kickstart other things.
The Decision to Attend a High-Intensity Conference
I've been on a hard sprint towards some massive goals. It's been exhausting on many levels.
The idea of a four-day, high-intensity conference that involved thinking, feeling, connection, communication, questions, focus, attention, and participation felt overwhelming.
I had to leave Dallas early in the afternoon to get to the conference destination in time to get a good night's sleep, which was important because I had to be prepared for the 7.30 a.m. start time and the 12-plus hours of events every day.
When it came time to leave for the event, I didn't want to go.
The truth is, I really didn't want to go.
But a part of me also realizes that a professional stands and delivers when it's time to stand and deliver.
Staying Home vs Going Out
I know that almost any time I've been in a situation like this, after going to the event, I call my assistant, wife, or somebody on the team and say, “Wow, I'm really glad I went. Clearly, I was supposed to be here. I met this person ... or it reminded me of something that I've always known, but for some reason I haven't been applying ... or I got this new perspective that really makes sense, which I think will make this other thing easier.”
I came up with a phrase to describe that feeling: “Good things happen when I'm in motion!”
Too often, when you're under stress, your self-preservation instinct is to find a quiet place to isolate yourself and wait for the storm to pass. But that’s not what you really need.
So, when I was going to miss the event, everyone basically said the same things to me …
"You should reconsider because good things happen when you're in motion. And, remember, you always tell me that you were supposed to be there when you get back."
There and Back Again
Now that I've finished the conference, I'm dictating this in the car on my way back from the event.
Once again, I feel silly for thinking about not going.
It's one thing to know what you know, but it's another not to know what you don't know. Sometimes, you can't imagine what you're going to get when what you're trying to get is something that's hard to imagine.
I encourage you all to think about:
- Some things that would be worth spending time on.
- Some of the things you deny yourself because of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.
- Some of your more basic needs are taking too many cycles, but part of what makes us extraordinary is to think extraordinary things, and that doesn't happen as often under ordinary circumstances.
So, make time for things that make extraordinary things more likely.
Just something to think about.
Don't get me wrong - while I've taken a brief sabbatical from events, I'm still a massive fan and plan on adding some back to my schedule. Precisely for the reasons mentioned in this article. But, it's not going to be because it's my routine, but because I'm being deliberate and intentional about where I spend my time.
Onwards!
Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 13th, 2025
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
Lighter Links:
- How a Philosopher Who Criticized Trump and Musk Turned Out to Be an AI Experiment. (Decrypt)
- Progress Happens Because Solutions Create New Problems to Solve. (FreeThink)
- More Than Just Intelligence – Being Human in the Age of Intelligent Machines. (Every)
- Is Your Phone Secretly Listening to You? Here’s an Easy Way to Find Out. (PCW)
- Power Play Turns Toxic: U.S. Deploys F-16 Jets to Taiwan and Philippines, China Issues Stark Warning. (DefTechTimes)
Trading Links:
- ChatGPT Hits 1 Billion Users? ‘Doubled in Just Weeks’ Says OpenAI CEO. (Forbes)
- Trump Spares Apple, Samsung, Tech Industry From Tariffs. Here's What Happened. (LaptopMag)
- How Long Do Bear Markets and Recessions Typically Last? (Forbes)
- Top Economist Larry Summers is Highly Concerned U.S. Treasuries Were Trading ‘Like those of an Emerging Market Nation’. (Fortune)
- BlackRock's Larry Fink Says to Own Alternative Assets. But Timing Is Everything – And Bigger Funds May Not Be Better. (MarketWatch)
To Rebirth & Spring Cleaning
Next Sunday is Easter, but yesterday was the first night of Passover - an 8-day long Jewish holiday that recounts the story of Exodus.
The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, depicting a Passover Seder and Jesus's last meal before his crucifixion.
Part of the Passover Seder tradition involves discussing how to share the story in ways that connect with different types of people, recognizing that everyone understands and relates to things differently.
To do this, we examine the Passover story through the lens of four archetypal children — the Wise Child, the Wicked Child, the Simple Child, and the Child Who Does Not Know How to Ask.
The four children reflect different learning styles — intellectual (Wise), skeptical (Wicked), curious (Simple), and passive (Silent) — and highlight how we must adapt communication to the diverse personalities and developmental stages of our audience.
This seems even more relevant today, as we struggle to come to a consensus on what to believe and how to communicate with people who think differently.
On a lighter note, one of the memorable phrases from Exodus is when Moses says, "Let my people go!" For generations, people assumed he was talking to the Pharoah about his people's freedom. But after a week of eating clogging food like matzoh, matzoh balls, and even fried matzoh … for many Jews, "Let my people go" takes on a different meaning.
After Passover, and as we enter a new season, it's a great time for a mental and physical 'Spring Cleaning,' and delve into your experiences to cultivate more of what you desire and less of what you don't.
Here is to Spring, Re-Birth, and Spring Cleaning.
Hope you had a great weekend.
April 06, 2025
Are Billionaires Popular?
We live in an interesting time. Many billionaires aren’t just business leaders - they’re also influencers, personalities, and public figures.
While countless billionaires go under the radar, several of today’s billionaires have become controversial figures - like Elon Musk. So, how do the top 10 richest Americans rank in this so-called “popularity contest?”
via visualcapitalist
It’s interesting how many of the 10 wealthiest people in America are still flying relatively under the radar. In my head, names like Sergey Brin or Larry Page should still be household names.
On the other side of this scale, the three richest billionaires have primarily unfavorable ratings ... with Mark Zuckerburg being the most disliked of the bunch.
Meanwhile, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates have predominantly positive ratings - though Bill is more polarizing than Buffett.
As an aside, the world’s richest lost over $200 billion in a single day as news of Trump’s tariffs rocked markets. For context, that drop is the fourth-largest one-day decline in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index’s 13-year history.
Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 6th, 2025
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
Lighter Links:
- Trump May Deport Duke Basketball Star After Brutal March Madness Loss. (TheDailyBeast)
- Rich Americans Die Like Poor Europeans. (AgingWithStrength)
- An AI Avatar Tried to Argue a Case Before a New York Court. The Judges Weren't Having It. (Yahoo)
- 'Most Disturbing Website on Internet' Can Find Almost Every Single Picture that Exists of You. (Unilad)
- The 2 Words that Spark Anxiety—and the 8 Words that Calm It. (PsychologyToday)
Trading Links:
- Stocks Lose $9.6 Trillion — How to Limit the Next Plunge’s Pain.(Forbes)
- Jeff Bezos' Amazon Quietly Launches Plan to Take Down Elon Musk. (TheStreet)
- UK Prime Minister to Admit ‘Globalization is Over’ in Response to Trump Tariffs: Report. (FoxNews)
- The Dark Money Behind Duke Basketball. (Wall Street Journal)
- $159,832,873 Bitcoin Transfer to Major US Exchange Sparks Black Monday Fears. (Investing)
How Are You Feeling About The Tariffs?
Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs this week, and the world went into an uproar and the market into a tailspin. As an immediate result, JP Morgan switched its economic prediction from "Solid Growth" to "Recession Risk"
My take: Actions Have Consequences. More importantly, we don't know all the actions ... and we certainly haven't recognized all the consequences. This is the beginning of something bigger than it seems, and many of the outcomes are beyond our current expectations or comprehension.
Sure, we saw some fundamental shifts last week ... but know that we are in for more.
The moves were big and fast enough that most people I know haven't had the time or brain cells to ponder things long and deep enough to form a well-reasoned opinion.
The only thing I "know" is that I expect more volatility and big moves.
With that in mind, here are some charts to help keep you informed as the consequences unfold.
Chart #1 - Global Stock Market Returns in Q1 of 2025
via visualcapitalist
Chart #2 - Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs on Major Nations
via visualcapitalist
Chart #3 - Tariff Shock Wipes $5.3 Trillion Off S&P 500: Index Falls 10.5% in Two Days
via visualcapitalist
Looking at the first chart, it's clear that prior to this announcement, there was a U.S. sell-off, perhaps caused by concerns about inflation and slower GDP growth. As a result, more investment was moving toward Chinese and European stocks.
After Trump's announcement, many things happened, including a joint response from China, Japan, and Korea - something I never thought I'd see. Also, many internet netizens started to plug questions into AI LLMs and receive similar results as Trump's tariffs. Contrary to a more complex equation, it appeared as if the tariff rates were calculated by dividing the deficit and imports of a country. Ultimately, this math was confirmed by the White House Deputy Press Secretary, Kush Desai.
It will be interesting to see what is walked back and what is doubled down on over the next few weeks.
Do you have faith? Do you have an opinion? I'd love to hear it!
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Moving the Markets
Lighter Links
Recent Posts
- Why Don't We See Aliens?
- Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 20th, 2025
- Are We Alone In The Universe?
- The Value of Masterminds - And the Decision to Stop Attending Them
- Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 13th, 2025
- To Rebirth & Spring Cleaning
- Are Billionaires Popular?
- Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 6th, 2025
- How Are You Feeling About The Tariffs?
- Understanding the Shape of Change
Why Don't We See Aliens?
So, if the math says it's likely that there are aliens ... why don't we see them?
In 2020, I mentioned Israeli officials who claimed they had been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together.
There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. Here are some links to things you might find interesting if you want to learn more about this.
So, while some may still believe aliens don't exist - I think it's a more helpful thought experiment to wonder why we haven't seen them.
For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence.
To simplify the issue, billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies) are similar to our Sun. Consequently, there must be some probability that some of them will have Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies, interstellar travel isn't absurd.
Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious.
If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?" Stephen Webb, a particle physicist, tackles that in his book and this TED Talk.
via TED
In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life.
But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, the moon's effect on climate, etc.
Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life, and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. Even if there were others, it's entirely possible that they're extinct by now.
What do you think?
Here are some other links I liked on this topic. There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy.
To Infinity and Beyond!
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