Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 24th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Meet the Man On a Controversial Mission To Preserve and Digitize Your Brain. (DigitalTrends)
• What is Consciousness? Scientists Compete To Find Out. (Bloomberg)
• Balinese Temple Monkeys are Sophisticated Thieves and Negotiators. (Economist)
• How Predictive Algorithms are Transforming Data Into Decisions. (JeffBullas)
• What is AI? The Human's Handbook to Computers that Think. (MorningBrew)

 

Trading Links:

• The Stock Market is At or Near the Most-expensive Levels Ever By Most Measures. When Will It Matter? (CNBC)
• Stock-Market Bulls Brace for Major Gut Check as Earnings, Fed and GDP Loom. (MarketWatch)
• David Einhorn Warns of Danger From Valuation-Indifferent Investors. (Forbes)
• How VCs and Founders See 2021 Differently. (TechCrunch)
• Virtual Reality Will Be a Trillion-Dollar Marketplace Within Five Years – Here's a Good Example Why. (MW)

 

Elon Musk Is The Richest Person In The World

On the 7th, it was announced that Elon Musk's wealth passed Jeff Bezos's $185 Billion net worth to become the wealthiest person in the world. This is driven by Musk's many companies - SpaceX, The Boring Company, OpenAi, Neuralink, and of course, Tesla.

That valuation comes after Tesla's market value passed $700 Billion for the first time. His company is worth more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, GM, and Ford combined (despite not having nearly the distribution) based on Market Capitalization.

via EEAGLI

NIO, BYD, and Xpeng should be on the list, but their market cap has increased so rapidly it seems the list used missed it. 

With Tesla's almost meteoric rise, it raises the question of whether the value is based on the ongoing global expansion, or speculation driven primarily by traders believing other traders want it as well.  To put it in perspective, Tesla's revenue has been rising 50% a year, which is impressive, but the stock has increased 800% in a year. Its P/E ratio is over 1400. As well, Tesla's revenue is less than a tenth of many of the companies on this list - and many of the companies are launching their own electric vehicles. 

To better compare the companies, a much better test is enterprise value which takes into consideration the company's debt obligations. 

via Radiatin

This shows that Tesla is still very impressive - just slightly less impressive than the markets would have you believe. They have clearly taken on less debt than many of those companies, and their market cap likely helps them take on cheaper loans when they do pursue more debt. 

I have a lot of faith in the future of Tesla as a company - but as a reminder, at the height of the 1990s tech bubble, Yahoo was worth more than all of the newspaper companies in the US. Toyota alone brings in 10x the revenue that Tesla currently does, and manufactures 25x as many cars. 

Regardless - congratulations to Musk for the achievement. If you were curious how he intends to use his "newfound" wealth, Musk is committed to using his money for two major goals 1) Sustainable energy and 2) extending life/consciousness beyond Earth. 

I guess you have to shoot for the stars ... or at least planets.

Why We Don't See Aliens

This week, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that we've been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

How naive to think that election news would be the craziest stuff you'd hear this holiday season ...

Back to aliens (for the record, that was a sentence I haven't typed before).  There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

To simplify the issue, there are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies), which are similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 13th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Google Reveals the Most Searched Terms of 2020 - You'll Probably Guess a Few. (TechRadar)
• Ted Talk: The Strength In Weak Leaders. (TED)
• Microsoft Files Patent For a Chatbot that 'Could' Become the 'Twin' of a Deceased Person. (Entrepreneur)
• Seattle Tech Leaders Including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella are Investing In Cricket Teams. (GeekWire)
• The Public Just Haven't Grasped What Happens When Hospitals Get Too Full — Covid-19 In America. (Economist)

 

Trading Links:

• Congress Just Voted To Spend $10 Billion On A.I, and Quantum Computing. (Protocol)
• Intel Not Inside: How Mobile Chips Overtook the Semiconductor Giant. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Best-Managed Companies of 2020 — And How They Got that Way. (Wall Street Journal)
• Tesla Tells Employees Model S and X Production Will Shut Down For 18 Days. (CNBC)
• Global Ranking: 20 Countries Where House Prices Rose Most In 2020. (UK)

Are We Alone In The Universe?

Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the universe. 

As usual, for them, it is well done, fun, and informative. 

For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with two equations: the Drake equation and the Seager equation.

The Drake equation estimates how many detectable extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and then in the Universe based on factors like habitable planets, change of life, and then intelligent life, and then the amount of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect - for example, the number of observable stars/planets, what % have life, and then % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

 

via Information Is Beautiful

For both equations, Information Is Beautiful lets you look at various default options but also playing with your own numbers to do the math. 

For example, the skeptic default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy and which is still 924,000 in the universe. The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our universe. 

Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the universe.

 

via Information Is Beautiful

One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially influential numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space. Conservative numbers are 420 years, but optimistic numbers are 10,000+. 

If any aliens are reading this ... don't worry, I won't tell.  But, we will find out if you voted in the last election.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 10th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Quantum Internet Will Blow Your Mind. Here's What It Will Look Like. (Discover)
• The US Military is Trialing Augmented Reality Goggles for Dogs. (CNN)
• Modern Science Didn't Appear until the 17Th Century. What Took So Long? (NYT)
• Qantas Airways 'Flight to Nowhere' that Sold out in Minutes Takes Off. (FoxNews)
• What Really Happens When You Become an Overnight Millionaire? (Marker)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Tesla Plans to Offer Machine-learning Training as Web Service with Its New 'Dojo' Supercomputer. (Electrek)
• Analysis: We Read the Antitrust Case against Amazon, and these are the Key Takeaways.  (GeekWire)
• Father of VIX Warns Options Glitch is Costing Investors Millions. (Bloomberg)
• Economists are More like Storytellers Than Scientists Don't Let the Nobel for Economic Sciences' Fool You. (TheConversation)
• The Stock Market Won't See the Bullish Outcome It's Expecting from a Biden Win Unless There's a Full Blue Wave, a JPMorgan Stock Strategist Says. (BusinessInsider)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 28th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Air Travel Data Suggests China Had Nearly 40 Times the COVID-19 Cases They Reported. (VFTW)
• Airlines Tried Social Distancing on Board. For Many, that Experiment is Ending. (Chron)
• MLB Targets 60-Game Season Starting around July 24, Assuming Conditions Met. (ESPN)
• Doomscrolling is Slowly Eroding Your Mental Health. (Wired)
• Photos Show Devastation Unleashed on Terror Leaders by Sword-carrying Ninja Bomb'. (MilitaryTimes)

 

Trading Links:

• Delta Could Furlough More Than 2,500 Pilots, Will Close 3 Flight Attendant Bases. (ThePointsGuy)
• You Won't Believe How Many Airlines Haven't Survived Coronavirus. How Does It Affect You? (Forbes)
• These Mall Staples Announced Thousands of Store Closures in June. (CNN)
• Here's Why New Traders are Losing Money. (TheStreet)
• Warren Buffett Has Warned about the Dangers of Speculating for Years. Day Traders Aren't Listening. (BusinessInsider)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 31st, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• SpaceX Launches New Era of Spaceflight with Company's First Crewed Mission. (NationalGeographic)
• Space Exploration's next Frontier: Remote-Controlled Robonauts. (Bloomberg)
• As States Start to Reopen, Here's Where People are Going. (Washington Post)
• Primer: Demystifying Data Science. (TheNewStack)
• Meeter is a New Mac App for Quickly Joining Zoom Meetings, Google Hangouts, and More. (9to5Mac)

 

Trading Links:

• Is China Overtaking the US as a Financial and Economic Power? (TheGuardian)
• Singapore's Financial Centre Will Emerge as Big Winner of a Draconian Chinese Law. (Insider)
• The UN Says a New Computer Simulation Tool Could Boost Global Development. (TechReview)
• U.S. Stock Market is Overpriced by 16%, Warns Oxford Think-Tank. (CCN)
• A Wall Street Firm Studied Every Crash over the past 100 Years and Concluded that the Unusual Performance of 7 Tech Stocks is Masking the Risk of a Prolonged Meltdown. (BusinessInsider)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 24th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• We are Doing in a Few Months What Would Normally Take a Drug Development Process Years to Do' with AI. (ZDNet)
• Findings From The AI Index Annual Report. (Stanford-AI)
• Terrifying Black Light Videos Show How Easy It Is to Catch Coronavirus. (BGR)
• Why Zoom Meetings are So Dissatisfying. (Economist)
• Travelers Now Scoring $700 Business Class Flights to Europe with Sneaky Loophole. (DMarge)

 

Trading Links:

• Hertz Files for Bankruptcy after 16,000 Employees Were Let Go. (Forbes)
• One Chart to Catch You up on 2020 ... And the Economy. (HowardLindzon)
• Second Stimulus Check Proposes $1,200 Extra with Round 2. Here's the Situation. (CNet)
• The World's 25 Richest Billionaires Have Gained Nearly $255 Billion in Just Two Months. (Forbes)
• What History Tells Us about the Accelerating AI Revolution. (Wall Street Journal)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 26th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Harvard Professor Wants to Ban Homeschooling Because It's Authoritarian'. (NYPost)
• Amazon Asks Workers to Request Leave If They Continue Staying at Home. (EnGadget)
• You Can Now Download the Government's Controversial Contact Tracing App. (Timeout)
• A Startup is Pitching a Mind-Uploading Service that is 100 Percent Fatal. (TechReview)
• Burning Man is Going Virtual, and So are the Orgies. (Vice)

 

Trading Links:

• This Pandemic is Over. Let's Stop the Economic Suicide, and Get Back to Work. (RealClearMarkets)
• Negative Oil Prices Were a Warning, Not an Anomaly. (Bloomberg)
• Ken Fisher on Nixing the VIX. (RCM)
• Hedge Funds are on Defense and Testing the Stamina of a $5 Trillion Stock Rally. (Bloomberg)
• Who's On Top in the S&P 500 Before and After the Coronavirus?(SeekingAlpha)