Capitalogix

Are We Alone In The Universe?

Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the Universe. 

As usual, for them, it is well done, fun, and informative. 

For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with two equations: the Drake equation and the Seager equation.

The Drake equation estimates how many detectable extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and then in the Universe based on factors like habitable planets, change of life, and then intelligent life, and then the amount of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect - for example, the number of observable stars/planets, what % have life, and then % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

via Information Is Beautiful

For both equations, Information Is Beautiful lets you look at various default options – but also to play with your own choices to adjust the outcomes. 

For example, the skeptical default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy (which is still 924,000 in the Universe).  The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our Universe. 

Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the Universe.

via Information Is Beautiful

One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially significant numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space.  Conservative numbers are 420 years, but optimistic numbers are 10,000+. 

If any aliens are reading this ... don't worry; I won't tell.  But, we will find out if you voted in the last election.

Where Are The Aliens?

This week, there was a U.S. congressional hearing on the existence of UFOs.  While there wasn't any proof of aliens, they did admit to phenomena that they couldn't explain with their current information.

There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret.  For example, in 2020, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that Aliens from a Galactic Federation have contacted us - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high probability estimates for their existence. 

Let's simplify the issues and arguments in the Fermi Paradox.  There are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies).  Each of these stars is similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets.  Further, it isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us.  Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd.  Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and the length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Spring and Rebirth

For Jews, Friday was the first night of Passover, a family-centric holiday that recounts the biblical story of the Exodus of the ancient Israelites from Egypt into the Promised Land. For me, it's a reminder to appreciate what we have – and how we stand on the shoulders of those who came before us. 

For Christians, today is Easter - the holiday honoring Jesus's resurrection. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and Jesus's last meal before his Crucifixion.  

For Jews, a notable part of the ritual dinner is recounting each of the ten plagues inflicted upon Biblical Egypt and saying, "Never again."

Last year, I joked that maybe COVID-19 should be added to the list. 

And, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land ... We are finally approaching the promise of life post-COVID.

Of course, other global events remind us that while the world and our capabilities continue to improve and expand ... human nature stays maddeningly the same.

With the coming of spring, the return to normalcy, and the reminders from the stories of Exodus and Easter - it's a great time to do a mental and physical "spring cleaning". Mine your experiences for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) as things go back to "normal".  

Hope you celebrated with family, food, and a reverence for all the blessings around you. 

Global Happiness Levels in 2022

Happiness is a complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones – bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience. 

Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) ... humans strive for happiness.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

via visualcapitalist

In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. Much of that continued into the 2022 report. 

As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed.  The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people. 

It is remarkable how resilient and stable the scores have been globally considering the amount of uncertainty, stress, and disruption households experienced this past year.

Ultimately, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

This year, the average score improved slightly compared to 2021 - though worry and stress have continued to rise. 

There has been a decrease in overall happiness compared to pre-pandemic scores.  Yet, the relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.

Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.

I'm still surprised by what people can get used to ... and how some people find pockets of joy in even the hardest of times.  Conversely, other people use the same ability to feel profound unhappiness, even when they have seemingly everything. 

It's an oddly beautiful reminder that happiness comes from within.

Another bright spot, worth mentioning, has been the massive global upsurge in benevolence. People are supporting others, communities have stepped up, more money is being donated to charity, and more people are volunteering. 

Onwards!

How Many Humans Have Lived?

Despite news of declining birth rates, the world’s population continues to grow because of advances in science, technology, and medicine.

We're nearing a global population of eight billion people. 

There have never been as many people alive as there are now.  But have you ever wondered how many humans have lived on this planet, in total, over the long arc of history?

 

via visualcapitalist

The number takes a lot of estimation, but you end up with approximately 109 billion people over the course of human existence. 

That means almost 7% of all humans who have ever existed are alive today.  It also means that for every person alive, nearly 14 people are dead.  That number seems small to me as I think about how many generations came before us.

While this might be somewhat interesting, the more important question is what you will do with the time left in your hourglass?  To learn more about what I think about that, here's an article I wrote on the time value of time and here's an article I wrote on the power of purpose and how healthy mindsets extend your life. 

Batteries Not Included

Mercedes-Benz might have a sense of humor.

They lent Saturday Night Live a C-Class for a parody TV commercial that makes fun of battery-powered cars.

The 2-minute video, starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus, shows a car that runs on AA batteries (which is why the car is called the Mercedes AA Class). 

Here is the video.

via SNL

One of the highlighted features, the "Auto-Dump," helps you discharge worn-out batteries ... all 9,648 of them.

The video ends with the disclaimer: "Batteries not included."

I hope you had a fun April Fool's Day.

Cat Poop Coffee ... Yum!

My wife is currently in Indonesia – and inflation is rising.  What a perfect time to revisit the world’s most expensive coffee. 

Indonesia is famous for coffee.  For example, “Sumatra” is their biggest island – with “Java” coming in close behind (and both are synonymous with coffee).

They also make one of the most expensive coffees in the world … Luwak Coffee.

It is a very particular coffee, created using a very peculiar process.

In traditional coffee production, the cherries are harvested, and the beans are extracted, before being shipped to a roaster, ground into a pulp, and brewed by a barista at your local Starbucks.

In contrast, with Luwak coffee, something different happens.

The coffee cherries are harvested by wild animals.

Specifically, they’re harvested by the Asian Palm Civet, a small, cat-like animal that absolutely loves the taste of coffee cherries.

But, if the civets eat the cherries, how can they still be used to make coffee?

Here comes the gross part—the civets eat the coffee cherries, but their digestive tract can’t effectively process the beans, only the flesh surrounding them.

When the partially digested, partially fermented beans are eventually excreted, coffee producers harvest them.  The beans are then cleaned, roasted, and used to make astonishingly expensive (“with retail prices reaching up to $1300 per kilogram”) coffee.

Now, is the coffee that mind-blowing?

No, not really.  In fact, many critics will openly call it bad coffee, or as Tim Carman, food writer for the Washington Post put it, “It tasted just like…Folgers.  Stale.  Lifeless.  Petrified dinosaur droppings steeped in bathtub water.  I couldn’t finish it.”

To be fair, the Luwak coffee industry is not really about coffee ... it is about an experience.  When I toured a plantation near Ubud, Bali, a smiling tour guide greeted and led me on an in-depth exploration of the forested property, where I was allowed to immerse myself in the various spices, roots, beans, and civets used to produce this one-of-a-kind coffee.  

Here is a video I shot of the process.

 

If you think about it, I paid a premium to drink exotic cat poop coffee.  Kind of strange!

I wouldn’t drink coffee made from people’s poop (or even domestic cat poop).

It’s the story that allows this not-so-awesome coffee to fetch awesome prices.  People are paying for the experience, not the commodity itself.

The same is true when you buy Starbucks.  The coffee at 7-Eleven is cheaper – and Consumer Reports tell us that McDonald’s coffee is better.

Nonetheless, I’d still rather drink at Starbucks.

We live in an Experience Economy.

The Future of Spaceflight

When I talk about exponential technologies, I almost always end up discussing Tesla and SpaceX. 

Elon Musk is an interesting guy.

Whether they end up doing everything they say they're going to, his companies massively accelerate the rate at which capabilities turn into products and platforms for future growth.

I recently shared the Elon quote: "Stop being patient and start asking yourself, how do I accomplish my 10-year plan in 6 months?  You'll probably fail, but you'll be a lot further along than the person who simply accepted it was going to take 10 years!"

I don't know if he really said it.  Nonetheless, it sounds like him ... and I agree with the sentiment.

The New Space Race.

When I was young, the Space Race captured the heart and souls of Americans.  But, for the past few decades, it was in the background.  Recently, that has changed.  The space race is getting hot again.  Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX is leading the pack. 

In 2018, I shared excitement that the boosters he used were reusable.  Today, people are talking about how the newest ship, Starship, could render other rocket programs obsolete. 

 

via visualcapitalist

 

While there's always room for competition, I can see many programs falling far behind if they haven't been focusing on reusability.  Assuming Starship delivers on its promises (keeping in mind that Elon is often over-confident about his timeline), it will be cheaper and more versatile than anything out there. 

I think it's naive to assume that other companies aren't doing interesting things ... but by the time they release anything comparable, it's possible that SpaceX will already dominate the market. 

The economics of reusable rocketry isn't yet cost-effective for most potential customers, but Musk is undoubtedly moving the needle in the right direction. 

Hopefully, he can continue to raise the expectations of both consumers and producers.  The results could be out-of-the-world.

Right now, suborbital trips from Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin cost between 250K to 500K per trip - and trips to actual orbit cost over $50 million. 

However, I believe the cost of space travel - and space tourism - will drop radically within my lifetime. 

It's hard to comprehend the scale of the universe and the scale of our potential ... but that's what makes it worth exploring!

Even though we've only been talking about space travel, there are so many other exponential technologies that this applies to just as well.

Onwards!

The Most Terrifying Infographic of 2022

As we enter the new year, it feels appropriate to focus a little on our mortality. What better time for an existential crisis? 

Below is an infographic that shows events in the life of a typical American. However, you can personalize it to display how long you likely have to live by filling in your education level, sex, country of birth, and when you were born. Seeing where you are ... versus how many dots are left can be jarring.

 

via Coruscant Consulting

Looking at the chart done with my information reminded me how important it is to make the most of the time I have left. 

Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by ... and other times, it almost seems to stand still.

Everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Some use it better than others. 

Sometimes we are conscious of how we use this precious resource. Sometimes it gets away from us.

Here is a video that illustrates how most of us spend our time. It is called The Time You Have (In JellyBeans).

 

zefrank via YouTube

The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?

What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or to miss an important event because "life happens". But, if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn't it become more special?

In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" – and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

That is an example, but I want to take it one step further. 

To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

• Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
• Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
• Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - Wow!
• Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
• Experiencing peace and relaxation;
• Feeling pure joy.

It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning. 

How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

To start, think about different time frames:

• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

Seriously, try it.  

Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose.

Onwards!

Visualizing Global GDP in 2021

There are numerous ways to look at or measure the global economy (including trade blocs, big industry movers, or debt). Another way to get a global overview is to compare GDP.

When trading was slower and more deeply tied to an investor mindset, economics played a more significant role in fundamental analysis. As the holding period (or "time in trade") shrinks, there is less focus on predicting markets over the long term ... and more on determining which techniques are making money now.

Even though markets are not the same as the economy, on a macro scale, many believe that it is possible to create value by understanding and the global economy better.  

With that, take a look at the $94 trillion world economy, divided by region. 

 

via visualcapitalist 

Some thoughts: 

• Global GDP was $87 trillion in 2019 and $84 trillion in 2020. So, while COVID did negatively impact GDP initially, it has rebounded and risen again as if 2020 hadn't interrupted the trend. 
• Since 2018, China has been slowly gaining ground on the U.S.'s lead 
• Global GDP isn't zero-sum, so countries doing better doesn't necessarily mean other countries are doing worse 
• The top four countries - U.S., China, Japan, and Germany - make up over half of the world's GDP. 
• Based on GDP growth, Libya, Guyana, Macao, the Maldives, and Ireland have the world's fastest-growing economies. 

To put these numbers in perspective, the world economy was approximately $3 trillion in 1970, and GDP is estimated to double again by 2050. 

Crazy stuff.