Capitalogix

Autonomous Lyft - Waymo

I went to a conference in Phoenix with my son Zach last week.  While there, he noticed something interesting ... Lyft is testing Alphabet's Waymo autonomous driving service live on the streets.

Regardless of concerns about the future of the gig economy – this is a glimpse into our not-to-distant future.  

Here's what they say about it.

I had to leave early to catch a flight, so my son decided to use Lyft to get around.  He accepted the Waymo terms, but didn't get a Waymo vehicle. Still, I thought this was cool.

 

There will likely soon be a tipping point where autonomous vehicles proliferate.  Even though we are not "there" yet ... the progress is obvious and the "quickening" is happening. 

Meanwhile, examples of innovation and exponential technology successes and adoption are all around us. 

The future is getting closer. 

Onwards.

I See You

It feels like we're always being watched, right?

It's not just me?

From governments, to Google, to Facebook ... it feels like it's impossible to have any expectation of privacy today. Amazon knows what I want before I do. 

This is an issue that cuts both ways. On the one hand, increased surveillance means we are arguably safer – because the digital omniscience makes it harder to get away with crimes ... but all this extra data on us makes it easier to commit other crimes and to suffer from the increasing lack of privacy. 

Paul Bischoff via Comparitech

Unsurprisingly, 8 of the top 10 most-surveilled cities in the world were in China. It's even less surprising with the Hong Kong protests and the new social credit system. 

My eldest son spent several years focused on cybersecurity. One of his "warnings" was that everyone's been hacked - not everyone has been targeted. 

I find that somewhat comforting. 

If everyone's information is out there, that's a lot of noise to sift through. 

Still, this is one of the issues that will be increasingly important.  Big Data with an AI parser creates a new set of promises and perils.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 13th, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• We May Be Closing in on the Discovery of Alien Life. are We Prepared? (NBCNews)
• An Ant Colony Has Memories Its Individual Members Don't Have. (TheNextWeb)
• Meat is Unhealthy, Meat is Okay: Why Science Keeps Overturning What We Thought We Knew. (Vox)
• Entries in the 2020 Sony World Photography Awards. (The Atlantic)
• Google Has Suspended Its Controversial Field Research' that Allegedly Scanned Homeless People. (TheVerge)

 

Trading Links:

• This Chart Ranks Everyone (Even You) by Their Wealth, and It's a Snapshot of Inequality. (CNBC)
• The Downside to Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade Eliminating Trading Fees. (MarketWatch)
• Job Losses in 2019 Highest in 4 Years as Manufacturing and Auto Industries Falter . (24/7 Wall St)
• Trump Administration Slaps 25% Tariff on Single Malt Scotch Whisky Imports. (Forbes)
• Former Nasdaq Boss Robert Greifeld Says We'll Remember WeWork as When the 'Unicorn' Bubble Burst. (CNBC)

 

 

Country Comparisons: Harvard's Economic Dynamics Data-Viz

Harvard's Center for International Development put together a tool that I think is pretty cool. It's called the Atlas of Economic Complexity.  Its goal is to get you to think differently about the economic strategy, policy, and investment opportunities for individual countries. 

Each country's profile analyzes its economic dynamics and future growth prospects, including which industries are burgeoning. They made it look pretty as well.  If you're curious about specific questions, you can use their exploration function instead. 

via Atlas of Economic Complexity

Interesting stuff.  Play around. Compare. Enjoy!

The Gig Economy: Uber's Woes

I enjoy looking at great disruptive companies and great examples of industries that are primed for disruption.

Think about how many companies have failed due to myopia... Radioshack couldn't understand a future where shopping was done online and Kodak didn't think digital cameras would replace good ol' film. Blockbuster couldn't foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes, because "part of the joy is seeing all your options!" They didn't even make it long enough to see "Netflix and Chill" become a thing. 

The Taxi industry had been ready for disruption way before Uber came along, yet, Uber may have mismanaged their opportunity. Taxis now have a chance to innovate back. 

To run a taxi in New York you need a medallion. There are approximately 13.5 thousand medallions in NYC. In 2013, prices peaked at over 1.3 million dollars for a single medallion. 

The medallion system has been broken for a long time. NYC taxis, in particular, were corrupt and the prices of medallions were artificially inflated by Bloomberg and de Blasio, and built on a debt bubble.

Taxis offered mediocre service, high rates due to artificial caps/greed, and often didn't take credit cards.

They didn't adapt and got disrupted. It's an age-old tale. The same tale as Blockbuster or Kodak; companies thinking linearly in an age of exponential change. 

Taxi agencies had the infrastructure to edge ridesharing out and adopt friendlier policies but were slow to adopt the apps and convenience that modeled ridesharing.

 

via chartr

It's clear that there's an increased demand for rides. Increased demand is likely caused by access in places that didn't previously have enough demand for a full taxi-service. Ridesharing means you can have drivers in small towns, rural areas, etc. Almost all the new demand is being monopolized by ridesharing. 

Should it be, though?

Many would argue Uber's model isn't sustainable; neither are many of these gig-based companies like DoorDash. Uber has a product almost everyone uses, no inventory, very little staff, and despite "winning" the race, it lost $370 million in 2018 and $4.5 billion in 2017.

 

They gained market share by offering lower prices (even at a loss). They also incentivized an army of drivers to join based on flexible hours and side-income.

 

The road to profitability for these companies is uncertain.

 

And the public opinion of Uber is dropping. You have drivers taking out loans to lease cars. You have California making uber classify their workers as employees. You have a review of 14,576 rides showing that these companies take a much larger slice of their drivers' fares than they purport.

 

Uber's low prices got it here, but prices have slowly raised, and AB5 in California has passed, though Uber is claiming exemption - it's likely their prices will jump again if forced to comply.

 

Rideshare companies are trying to convince workers that hour flexibility is worth the non-employee status, but I don't think that has any real basis. Gig workers can't unionize, have little labor protection and don't receive benefits.

 

The industry is in a period of massive disruption - but taxies have a chance to fight back. As the gig economy becomes regulated, the already defined system may regain an edge.

 

In the game of disruption, Uber was shortsighted. In the game of knowing their customers, Taxis were shortsighted.

 

Will taxies see a resurgence as Uber inevitably hikes up rates? Will autonomous fleets put drivers out of business as they will for long-haul freight?

 

Time will tell!

 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 7th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• These are the Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2019.(WEForum)
• Inside an Amazon Warehouse, Robots' Ways Rub off on Humans. (New York Times)
• Beetles and Flies are Becoming Part of the Agricultural Food Chain. (Economist)
• China and the World: inside the Dynamics of a Changing Relationship. (McKinsey)
• How Many of the "Top 100 Books of All Time" Have You Actually Read? (BuzzFeed)

 

 

Trading Links:

• So How's the Economy Really Doing?: Theme of the Week. (Bloomberg)
• Jony Ive's Shock Departure from Apple: What Does It Really Mean? (Forbes)
• The End of FinTech. (TheFinanser)
• Is a Netflix Subscription Model the Future of Financial Services? (TheFinancialBrand)
• A Looming Disconnect between the Economy and Financial Markets. (SeekingAlpha)

 

 

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 23rd, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• DeepMind's AI Has Used Teamwork to Beat Humans at a First-person Shooter. (TechReview)
• Physicists Discover Surprisingly Complex States Emerging out of Simple Synchronized Networks. (Phys)
• Amazon Prime Air Delivery Drone to Start Dropping Packages 'Within Months,' Officials Say. (USAToday)
• 136 Maps Reveal Where Tourists & Locals Take Photos in Major Cities across the Globe. (OpenCulture)
• A Subway Map of Human Anatomy: All the Systems of Our Body Visualized in the Style of the London Underground. (OpenCulture)

 

Trading Links:

• Microsoft is Now Worth over $1 Trillion, a Stunning Run since Satya Nadella's Ascent. (Quartz)
• These are the 10 Best-performing Stocks of this Century. (BusinessInsider)
• What is Currency? (Visual)
• Michael Jordan's Net Worth is Now Officially $1.9 Billion. (CNW)
• NASA Opens Space Station to Tourists and Businesses to Promote Commercial Activities. (Wall Street Journal)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 9th, 2019

Tuesday was the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Protests. Here's a video of Chinese college students being asked about the event. It is a pretty interesting look at censorship and fear of government consequences for lack of free speech. 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• China's Big AI Advantage: Humans. (News)
• The Natural Genius of Ants is Helping Us Build Better Algorithms. (Wired)
• 5 Myths about Strategy. (HBR)
• Percentage of Americans Who Never Traveled beyond the State Where They Were Born? A Surprise? (Forbes)
• At Disneyland's New Star Wars' Attraction – Brace Yourself for $200 Lightsabers, $42 Cocktails and 4 A.M. Lines. (MarketWatch)

 

Trading Links:

• Billionaire Mike Bloomberg Tells Harvard Graduates that Money Isn't Important. (TheLadders)
• The Radical Plan to Change How Harvard Teaches Economics. (Vox)
• Apple Patents the Foldable iPhone Display; Here's What It Looks Like. (ValueWalk)
• Quantum Computing Will Change the Digital World beyond Recognition. (Metro)
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic Does Not See a Rate Cut this Year like the Market is Telegraphing. (CNBC)

 

75th Anniversary of D-Day

June 6th, 1944 ... the day we stormed the beaches of Normandy.  It was the largest seaborne invasion in history. The invasion created a foothold that allowed Allied forces to expand through France. 

The memorial in France this year was a particularly touching event with the many surviving World War 2 soldiers being well into their 90s. 

"A generation whose unconquerable spirit shaped the post-war world. They didn't boast. They didn't fuss. They served" - Theresa May

A 97-year old veteran paratrooper, Tom Rice, commemorated the day by once again dropping into the field he landed in on that fateful night. 

Check out the video. It's an inspiration. 

 

via TIME

Seems like a friendlier welcome than a sea of German soldiers. As an extra fun fact, Teddy Roosevelt stormed the beaches of Normandy at 56 with a heart condition,  arthritis, and a cane. He was the oldest man to take part in the invasion. 

Our society is built on the backs of many strong men! I'm thankful for their sacrifices. 

The Rise of the Megacity

Population growth is an interesting measure. Historically, growth has been slow.  But something changed that.  And the implications are stunning.

Scientists estimate that humans have existed for over 130,000 years. It took until 1804 for us to reach 1 Billion. We doubled that population by 1927 (123 years later), and then doubled it again in only 47 years later (which was 1974). 

Early population growth was driven by the agricultural revolution. Since 1804, the industrial revolution, health and safety advances, and technology have radically improved quality of life - spurring comparatively rapid growth. 

via Axios (Click for an Interactive Graph)

World population growth rates peaked in the late 1960s and have declined sharply in the past four decades, but we're still on a positive trend. We're expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, but a lot of that growth comes from developing countries - they also almost exclusively come from urban areas. 

Urbanization: Megacities

Since 2014, over 50% of the world's population has lived in urban areas - today it's approximately 55%. That number is growing.

Ironically, as we grow more digitally connected, our world is shrinking and our populations are concentrating. 

An interesting consequence of this rapid urbanization and population growth in developing countries has been the increased development of Megacities - defined as cities with populations greater than 10 million. Today, there are 33 megacities - more than triple the number in the 1990s. 

This creates a set of interesting opportunities and challenges. 

For example, how will these cities deal with infrastructure - sanitation, transportation, etc.

 

via Blackrock (Click to view full infographic)