Capitalogix

How Long Do You Have Left?

We only have a limited time on this earth - and a lot of it is taken by frivolous activities. 

How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones ... or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

The answer is a lot.

via dailyinfographic

Nine years in front of entertainment devices - another 10.5 years spent working.  You get the idea.

If you have goals you want to accomplish, aspirational travel, and lifestyle plans - this really puts the idea of finding and living your passion in perspective. 

Do you have the time to waste it?

VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

 

via visualcapitalist
 

I turned 60 this July, so I only have 20 years left, according to this calculator.   I expect more!

There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 ... but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

While these numbers seem pretty high, there are two things to consider. First, COVID heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates went up. That likely won't continue (though it will likely continue to affect your insurance premiums and pension benefits). 

Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which likely differ from you (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

Finally, I think Purpose is one of the most important catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire ... not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

If you're not growing, you're dying!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 8th, 2023

Reports of bed bug infestations in Paris are so bad the government is deploying sniffer dogs to inspect trains.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Collaboration With Generative AI is So Tricky—And How to Make It Work. (Fortune)
• AI-Assisted Decision-Making. (Every)
• 10 Questions to See If You Have a Great Idea. (Entrepreneur)
• At What Age Do You Hit the Peak of Your Career? (Economist)
• Rethinking Flow States by Introducing 9 Antecedents. (PsychologyToday)

 

Trading Links:

• Visualizing the Pyramid of Financial Risk. (Advisor)
• The Invisible Hand: AI in Financial Markets and Algorithmic Trading. (Medium)
• India Surpassed China as the World's Most Populous Country this Year. (UnitedNations)
• 10 Fast Food Chains Ranked by Average Sales Per Store in the U.S. (Infographic)
• Even Michael Lewis Can't Make a Hero Out of Sam Bankman-Fried. (NYT)

Camp Kotok: Back Again!

I was just in Maine at Camp Kotok, a private gathering of economists, fund managers, and other financial industry professionals. 

There was limited phone service or access to the Internet… so people had to talk with each other.  And unlike most of my schedule, almost everything happened outside.  Discussions, while vigorous, often take place while fishing or grilling. 

At a past Camp Kotok, I did this interview with Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors' Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist.  Check it out. 

 

Cumberland Advisors via YouTube

 

Camp Kotok is an interesting place. The event transformed from a simple retreat after 9/11 ... when many attendees experienced the WTC collapse and came together for some fellowship and to discuss their experiences.  From then on, attendance grew, and the gathering evolved. 

As a side note, before the gathering became known as Camp Kotok, it was referred to as the “Shadow Fed” (in part because of the people who attend).

Attendees are bound to “Chatham House Rules” (participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed).  However, general thoughts, ideas, forecasts, and comments can be discussed and published.

On this trip, I talked with David Kotok about the event, what it means, and how it’s grown.

The intent of the participants (and the environment) helps create a platform for meaningful and productive conversations about the opportunities and obstacles facing America and the world. 

Every year, I come back with new ideas and fresh perspectives on things I forget to think about. 

AI was on everyone's mind.  The financial industry is changing quickly, and I’m confident that advanced technology will become an even bigger driver. 

In general, economically, the mood was cautiously optimistic to bullish. 

Remember, it is an election year!

Time Flies - Another Year, Another Lesson

Thursday was my 60th birthday.  I can't believe how time flies.  Birthdays seem to come more quickly as you get older.

It makes sense, though, I suppose.  When you were four, a birthday represented a quarter of your life.  Now, a year represents a much smaller percentage.

While it's not always pleasant getting older, it sure beats the alternative!

This year, I made a concerted effort to be more healthy, fit, and vital in mind, body, and spirit. I said I wanted to sprint into 60, rather than roll into it.

If you are going to live longer, your future has to be compelling to you.  Otherwise, who would want to extend their stay?  That is why I strive to keep my future bigger than my past.  

As time marches on, I become increasingly grateful for the friends and family who share the journey with me.  This year, I spent my birthday in San Diego, surrounded by family and some close friends.  On Saturday, they surprised me with a "Birthday Palooza," celebrating my 60th along with my wife Jennifer's 50th. 

 

 

When I was a kid, I couldn't imagine being where I am today ... nor could I imagine the path that got me here. 

Looking back, it all seems to make sense (even though it felt pretty random while making my way through it).

I feel lucky to have been in the right place at the right time, so consistently, and to find the gift in most situations (even when it seemed so well hidden).

I'm grateful for a lot today, and as much as I love innovation, sometimes things are perfect just the way they are. 

Hopefully, you took time this weekend to let someone know they're important to you.  If not, now is a good time for that too.

Onwards!

Do You Think the U.S. Has Aliens?

I'll admit to being fascinated by the idea of aliens.  Growing up in the 60s and 70s, there was no shortage of science fiction fantasies imagining what a space-faring civilization would look like and, more importantly, what would we, the Earthlings, do when they made contact. 

Last year, there was a U.S. congressional hearing on Unidentified Flying Objects.  While there wasn't any proof of aliens, they did admit to phenomena they couldn't explain with their current information.

Now, we have multiple former military officials testifying in a House of Representatives meeting that the U.S. has recovered not only spacecraft but alien biological matter for decades.  While I do believe in the possibility of aliens, I remain skeptical.

There are many stories (or theories) about how we had encountered aliens before and just kept them secret.  For example, in 2020, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that Aliens from a Galactic Federation had contacted us - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high probability estimates for their existence. 

Let's simplify the issues and arguments in the Fermi Paradox.  There are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies).  Each of these stars is similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets.  Further, it isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than ours.  Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd.  Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and the length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks - or that there might have been others in the past, or others may develop in the distant future. 

What do you think?

Here's another article I wrote on the subject, titled "Are We Alone In The Universe?"

Finally, here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Life After Death ... Will A.I. Help you Live Forever?

My Aunt recently passed away. She was my Dad's sister ... and she was a fantastic person. She was loving and kind. She was a natural-born caregiver, And she was as sharp as a tack. What wouldn't we give for another moment with her? My response to her death reminded me of my feelings when my Dad passed away. 

This time, the conversation was a little different. People asked me if I thought that A.I. would enable us to live on after our bodies started to give out on us. I recorded some of my thoughts. 

 

I don't think A.I. will give us life after death.

I do believe technology will get good enough to create a replica of you - that talks like you, responds like you, and even comforts people who miss you. 

I don't believe technology can capture whatever part of us doesn't live in our bodies. Whether you call it our soul (or something else), I don't think that will ever get uploaded to the matrix, so you live on. 

And, I think that's okay. Part of the beauty of existence is the transience, the joy, the suffering, and the range of human experience. That is a big part of what we call life.

When my Dad was dying, every moment took on new meaning. Not only did time seem to slow down, but there was a weight and intimacy that's often taken for granted. 

What do you think?

Understanding Economic Freedom

We often think about the U.S. as the "land of the free." That is good marketing ... but is it true?  In large part, it depends on the contexts and frameworks you choose to evaluate what constitutes freedom. 

For example, Strategic Coach breaks "entrepreneurial freedom" into four categories: time, money, relationships, and purpose.

Meanwhile, if you look at the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, you've got freedom of speech, press, assembly, and the right to petition the government ... and we've since instituted a litany of other freedoms and liberties. 

In this post, we will examine the concept of economic freedom.  Economic freedom represents more than just freedom to make money, it pertains to the decisions and liberties one has in that pursuit. 

The Heritage Foundation releases a yearly Economic Freedom Index. 

 

 

According to VisualCapitalist, the ranking uses four broad categories, each with three key indicators to measure economic freedom.

1. Rule of law: property rights, judicial effectiveness, government integrity
2. Size of government: tax burdens, fiscal health, government spending
3. Regulatory efficiency: labor freedom, monetary freedom, business freedom
4. Open markets: financial freedom, trade freedom, investment freedom

The 12 indicators are weighted equally and scored from 0-100.  The overall score is the average score among those indicators. 

Based on these metrics, the U.S. doesn't even enter the top 10. 

Surprisingly, the U.S. ranks 25th overall - and only 3rd in the Americas. 

Now, freedom means a lot of different things, and economic freedom is only one of many modalities ... but it's an important factor. 

If you were in control, what change would you make to increase the United States' economic freedom?  If you're not from the U.S., where does your country rank, and why?

The Shape of Change

Change is the only constant.

The World Government Summit put together a helpful interactive website where you can test your knowledge on the trajectory of key statistical indicators for the development of society over the past decade.  It is more challenging than I imagined.  Here is the text from their opening screen.

Can we estimate how much the world has changed in a decade? Or do our own experiences impact the perception of progress? This work challenges the assumptions we make about how key statistical indicators regarding Health, the Environment, or Education evolve through the years. 

- The Shape of Change via the World Government Summit

You can click on the image below to test your knowledge of key issues shaping the world (like oil dependency, pollution,  literacy, economic freedom, etc.) by answering some questions at "The Shape of Change."

The Shape of Change via the World Government

It also includes a table that tracks year-over-year changes in various indicators. 

 

The Shape of Change via the World Government

The first part is like a guessing game where you try to predict the direction and the rate of change.

The second part, which involves reviewing the data table, was much more illustrative. 

Were there any numbers that surprised you?

Meet The Jetsons: 60 Years Later

Since my last name is Getson, I often get "Jetson" at restaurants.  As the CEO of a tech company focused on innovative technologies, it somehow feels fitting. 

Despite only airing for one season (from 1962-1963), The Jetsons remains a cultural phenomenon.  It supposedly takes place in 2062, but in the story, the family's patriarch (George Jetson) was born on July 31, 2022.  Not too long ago. 

Obviously, this is a whimsical representation of the future - spurred on by fears of the Soviet Union and the space race.  But it captured the imagination of multiple generations of kids.  Flying cars, talking dogs, robot maids, and food printing ... what's not to love?

 

I don't intend to dissect the show about what they got right or wrong, but I do want to briefly examine what they imagined based on where we are today. 

For example, while flying cars aren't ubiquitous yet (like in the Jetsons), we already have driverless cars.  It's likely that by 2062, driverless cars will be pervasive, even if flying cars aren't.  But, frankly, who knows?  That is still possible.

Meanwhile, both George and Jane work very few hours a week due to the increase in technology.  While that's a future we can still envision, despite massive technological improvements, we've chosen to increase productivity (instead of working less and keeping output at 1960 levels).  Even with the expected growth of AI, I still believe that humans will choose to pursue purposeful work.

The Jetsons also underemphasize the wireless nature of today's world.  George still has to go into the office, and while they have video phones, it's still a piece of hardware connected to a wall, instead of mobile and wireless.  2062 is far enough away that holographic displays are still a very real possibility.

Likewise, while we don't yet have complex robot maids (like Rosie), we already have Roombas... and both AI and Robotics are improving exponentially.

Meanwhile, we are in the process of creating cheap and sustainable food printing and drone delivery services ... which makes the Jetsons look oddly prescient. 

And, remember, there are still 40 years for us to continue to make progress.  So, while I think it's doubtful cities will look like the spaceports portrayed in the cartoon ... I suspect that you'll be impressed by how much further we are along than even the Jetsons imagined.

Not only is the rate of innovation increasing, but so is the rate at which that rate increases.  It's exponential. 

We live in exciting times!

Predicting The Future With Arthur C Clarke

Last week, I shared a couple of videos that attempted to predict the future. As a result, someone sent me a video of Arthur C Clarke's predictions that I thought was worth sharing.

Arthur C Clarke was a fantastic science fiction writer and a famous futurist. You probably know him as the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey.

Here are his predictions from 1964, nearly 60 years ago.

 

via BBC Archive 

Arthur C. Clarke had a profound impact on the way we imagine the future. Known for his remarkable predictions, Clarke's ideas may have seemed farfetched at times, yet his thoughts on the future and the art of making predictions were grounded in reason.

If a prophet from the 1960s were to describe today's technological advancements in exaggerated terms, their predictions would sound equally ridiculous. The only certainty about the future is that it will be fantastical beyond belief, a sentiment Clarke understood well.

You can be a great futurist even if many of your predictions are off in execution, but correct in direction. For example, Clarke predicted that the advancements in communication would potentially make cities nonexistent. While cities still exist - in much the same way as in the 1960s - people can now work, live, and make a massive difference in their companies from anywhere on the planet, even from a van traveling around the country. Global communication is so easy that it's taken for granted. 

As a science fiction author, some of what he wrote about might seem ridiculous today. For example, super-monkey servants creating trade unions.  Much of what he wrote about was what could happen (and to provide a way for people to think about the consequences of their actions and inactions).  As we discussed last week, humans often recognize big changes on the horizon ... but they rarely correctly anticipate the consequences. 

In summary, even though some of Clarke's predictions were farfetched, they were rooted in a deep understanding of human potential and the transformative power of technology. His ability to envision a fantastical future was not only a testament to his imagination, but also served as an inspiration for generations of scientists, engineers, and dreamers. By embracing the unknown and acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of the future, we can continue to push the boundaries of what is possible and strive for a world that is truly beyond belief.

You won't always be 100% correct, but you'll be much closer than if you reject what's coming.