Capitalogix

Who Can You Trust?

Information is Power.

Consequently, your choice of information source heavily contributes to your perceptions, ideas, and worldview.

Coincidently, news sources are a lightning rod for vitriol and polemic.

I am still a little surprised by the abject hatred I hear expressed towards a particular news source by those who hold an opposing bias.  This often leads to claims of fake news, delusion, and partisan press. Likewise, it is common to hear derision toward anyone who consumes that news source.

Perhaps the reality is that that most sources are flawed – and the goal should simply be to find information that sucks less?

It's to the point where if you watch the news, you're misinformed; and if you don't watch the news, you're uninformed. News sources aren't just reporting the news, they're creating opinions and arguments that become the news.  And many don't care enough to think for themselves - or to extract the facts from the opinion.

Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank on various scales. You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details.

 

via Ad Fontes Media

I once spent fifteen minutes in an argument about how you know whether the information in this chart is true.  If you're curious about their methods, click here. 

Distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach is the "new normal." 

Perhaps even more dangerous is the amount of fake news and haphazard research shared on social media. Willful misrepresentations of complex issues are now a too common communication tactic now on both sides ... and the fair and unbiased consideration of issues suffers.  

Social media spreads like wildfire, and by the time it has been debunked (or proven to be an oversimplification) the damage is done. People are convinced ... and some will never go beyond that. 

The reality isn't as bleak.  People agree on a lot more than they say they do.  It is often easier to focus on "us" versus "them" rather than what we agree upon jointly.  This is true on a global scale.  We agree on a lot.  Most Democrats aren't socialists, and most Republicans aren't fascists ... and the fact that our conversation has drifted there is intellectually lazy.

This idea that either side is trying to destroy the country is clearly untrue (OK, mostly untrue). There are loonies on the fringes of any group, but the average Democrat is not that unlike the average Republican. You don't have to agree with their opinions, but you should be able to trust that they want our country to succeed. 

I don't know that we have a solution. But there is one common "fake news" fallacy I want to explain at least a little. 

It's called the Motte and Bailey fallacy. It's named after a style of medieval castle prioritizing military defense.

Launceston Castle via Chris Shaw, CC BY-SA 2.0

On the left is a Motte, an artificial mound often topped with a stone structure, and on the right is a Bailey, the enclosed courtyard. The Motte serves to protect not only itself but also the Bailey. 

As a form of argument, an arguer conflates two positions that share similarities. One of the positions is easy to defend (the motte) and the other is controversial (the bailey).  The arguer advances the controversial position, but when challenged insists they're only advancing the moderate position. Upon retreating the arguer can claim that the bailey hasn't been refuted, or that the critic is unreasonable by equating an attack on the bailey with an attack on the motte. 

It's a common method used by newscasters, politicians, and social media posters alike. And it's easy to get caught in it if you don't do your research. 

Conclusion

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe ... so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

But, hopefully, in learning about these fallacies, and being aware, we do better. 

I will caution that blind distrust is dangerous – because it feels like critical thought without forcing you to critically think.

Distrust is good ... but too much of a good thing is a bad thing. 

Not everything is a conspiracy theory or a false flag.

Do research, give more credence to experts in a field - but don't blindly trust them either.  How well do you think you're really thinking for yourself?

It's a complicated world, and it's only getting more complicated.  But, hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble and learn more about those you disagree with. 

 

Before You Vote: Getting Educated

Early voting has started, but, if all goes to plan, we'll know who will be the President on November 3rd. 

The fears of fake news and the growing echo chambers around candidates (and policies) mean it can be tough to truly make an educated decision. The reality is, most of our news sources are tinted by the lens of their ideology - which is okay. That means they're appealing to their targeted audience. 

That being said, it may also be worth looking at the same news story from a comparative news source from the other spectrum - or even better, a primary source when it comes to science/economics. 

Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank. You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details. And, if you're curious about their methods, click here. 

via Ad Fontes Media

On top of reading various news sources, there are a couple of other tools I like: 

• FiveThirtyEight - Uses graphics to tell visual stories on valid statistics. Named after the number of electoral votes. Also has a visual presidential forecast. 
• RealClearPolitics - Aggregates news from various sources, as well as writing their own opinion pieces. Also has a good visual on the current state of the presidential, senate, and house races. 
• Brittanica ProCon - Tracks the stated positions of politicians on various issues. Can be sorted by candidate, and by issue. It also has a quiz you can take to assess which candidate you actually resonate with. 
• Politifact & FactCheck - Both sites fact check presidential statements, party statements, and more. We know politicians often lie by omission, or focus only on the specific stats that are relevant to their point. Fact-checking helps you gain a more holistic picture. 

 

As a last warning on believing anything you hear, most polls I've seen put Biden in the lead ... but if you remember 2016, you know the polls are working on incomplete information. Clinton had a lead on most polls and lost to President Trump. 

We live in interesting times!

An Investment Guaranteed to Pay Dividends

I think about investments a lot ... that makes sense given my profession.

Yet, as my kids get older, there is an investment I made that paid-off in a big way ... and I want to share it with you.

Like many parents, I wanted to teach my children that, to a large extent, they control what happens to them. One of the first ways I did that was to set up a "compensation system" for them to earn video games.

Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games. I tried something different.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books.  Here is a photo from way back then.

 

 

Paid With Play.

Here's how it worked. When they were younger, 10 books was enough to earn a small game. When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished the requisite number of books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store or game store for them to choose any game they wanted.

When they finished a hundred books, they got a bonus of earning the next game system. That meant if they had a Nintendo, they could now also get a PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360.

How Can You Encourage a Jump to the Next Level?

There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortable reading a certain type of book, and didn't want to read the kind of books that I read.  So, I created a bonus system that counted a particular book as three books.  I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

It Is a Great Way to Learn About Your Kids.

I also used the bookstore visits to get a sense of how the boys were doing. For example, I might say "I notice that you read five books in that series, maybe you'd like this book".  Or, "That sure is a lot of science fiction; what was the last biography you read?"  For the most part, though, I didn't care what they read.  The key was to get them to want to choose certain books for their own reasons.  Ultimately, their preference meant they were learning to love reading.

It Puts Them In Control of Their Destiny and Rewards.

My younger son likes competition. He also broke or misplaced many things. So, in order to earn back the Game Boy unit that he lost, I challenged him to read five books in five days. These weren't easy books either. It was designed to stretch him, and also to teach him that he could read a book a night. The bet was that he either finished all the books in the allocated time, or none of them counted towards games or Game Boys. On the other hand, if he read a book a night for two weeks, not only would he get to have his Game Boy back, the books would count towards a game too. It worked like a charm, and we were both happy.

So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

As they started to get into their teenage years, I needed to up the ante a little. So, 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice. Both boys cashed in ... and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad.

I got what I wanted, though; both my boys love reading.  And know that they can accomplish anything they put their minds to … one step at a time.

 

 

That's an investment that pays dividends for a long time.

  

Who Can You Trust? Ranking Your News Sources

Fake news this ... phony sources that ...

It is harder than ever to know what to trust.

"Noise Reduction" is important in this volatile geo-political climate.

The chart, below,  lists the least and most trusted news sources.

 

via RJI

As someone who reads a lot, this was interesting.

As a side note,  I was a little surprised to see the "Internet" on the list as source itself.  Darwin would be somewhat comforted to see that people don't trust everything they see on the internet. 

The following chart is a bit outdated (it's from 2014), but it's a good study with diverse leanings.  It presents the trust levels of various news sources by ideological group.   

 

via Journalism

Which of your news sources do you follow? Were they as trusted as you expected?

Another question worth asking yourself is "Am I getting an idea of what the other side is thinking?"  In trading, I always want to understand what the other side sees.

Finally, let me know if there are resources you think I should look at.  

You are either growing or dying.

Why It's Not Them -- It's You

Why is it often easier to be nice to a stranger (or a dog) than someone you deal with regularly?

 

 

 

Despite the annoying evidence to the contrary, it's probably not them ... Which means it is probably you (or at least what you focus on).  

The recipe for success is to choose to let energy flow and to have an unrelenting focus on progress.

This Happens In an Internet Minute: The Astounding Growth of Web Content

To put some perspective on this explosion of content and web traffic here are the facts on the growth of content and the internet.

Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

• The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion
• Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion
• Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting.
• The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase!

Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

• 4 million search queries on Google
• Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
• Email users send 204 million messages

 

Source: Aci.info via Jeff Bullas.

And this is just the beginning.

What It Is Like to Prepare to Speak at a TEDx Conference (Part 1)

TED Talks are pretty well-know for their quality.  So, I was understandably excited (nervous, even) about presenting at the TEDx Plano Conference this past weekend.

It was fun (in the way that preparing for a marathon is "fun").

For example, in the days leading up to the event, I would give it to the unsuspecting people who chose to use the StairMaster next to me. It seemed like a good way to practice with my heart rate up.

I also gave it one-on-one to employees.  Why? Because it gave me extra practice runs, and I got to experiment with different variations to gauge responses.

How did it go?  The speech, itself, went pretty well ... Though it is hard to believe how much work goes into something so fleeting.  I guess that is why they have video.

They filmed it with a professional multi-camera crew. At this point, I still have no idea how long it takes for them to edit it and then put it online. I will let you know when I get the link.

By the way, my topic was "The Time Value of a Life Worth Living -- An entrepreneur's reflections on not letting life get in the way." It is about a year that brought my Dad's death, the forced sale of my company by venture capitalists, and a divorce (in that order).  Sometimes, life's darkest days bring the greatest gifts ... if you are willing to look for them.

 

Next week, I'll write about what it is like to prepare for a TED Talk, and what I believe are some of the key differences from traditional presentations.

 

EDIT: Here's the video:

 

 

In God We Trust -- The Media, Not So Much Anymore ...

A new survey from Gallup suggests that sixty percent of Americans have little trust in the mass media to deliver the news "fully, accurately and fairly." This marks a record amount of distrut since Gallup began tracking the trend.

The question asked was: "In general, how much trust and confidence do you have in the mass media—such as newspapers, TV, and radio—when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately and fairly—a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, or none at all?"

Sixty percent answered either "not very much" or "not at all," with the remaining 40 percent opting for either "a great deal" or at least "a fair amount."

Since you probably don't believe this information, here's the chart straight from Gallup; so you can interpret it yourself.

 

According to the pollsters, this year's drop in media trust is being fueled largely by self-identified Republicans and independents. Twenty-six percent of Republicans said they trusted the media either greatly or a fair amount, similar to the level of trust the GOP reported back in 2008, another election year.

Here is the Gallup chart:

 

 

Independents, meanwhile, are much more negative about the media than they were in 2008, something that Gallup says suggests "the group that is most closely divided between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney  is quite dissatisfied with its ability to get fair and accurate news coverage of this election."

Related articles

• Gallup: Debate Helped Romney (cnsnews.com)
• Congress Approval Rating Slides Back To All Time Lows; 83% Disapprove (zerohedge.com)
• People Are Losing Trust In All Institutions (ritholtz.com)

Check-Out This Official Notice of Formal Apology

As a public service, I am sharing this Formal Apology from the Bureau of Communication.

 

 

 

 

Failure to use it has consequences.

For example, have you seen this video of what an angry father can do to his daughter's laptop?

 

 

 

Do you applaud the standard he is trying to teach her ... or are you tempted to call Child Protective Services?

If she had just used the apology form ...

 

Related articles

• Police visit Facebook dad who shot daughter's laptop (news.cnet.com)
• Dad Who Shot Daughter's Laptop, Gets Visit from Child Protective Services (blippitt.com)
• Dad draws raves, reprimands for answering daughter's Facebook rant with nine .45 rounds in her laptop (mercurynews.com)

What Good Interview Questions Are Actually Trying to Discover

Image via CrunchBase

When you interview someone for a job, what are you trying to find out?

I've seen and used models that assess how someone likely will fit the Culture, and whether they are Organized, Competent, and Motivated?

Seth Godin often has an interesting perspective on business.  Here is what he shared about this topic.

What good interview questions are actually trying to discover.

• How long are you willing to keep pushing on a good project until you give up?
• How hard is it to get you to change your mind when you're wrong?
• How much do you learn from failing?
• How long does it take you to learn something new?
• How hard is it for you to let someone else take the lead?
• How much do you care?

The rest is merely commentary, either that or they're interviewing someone for a job that's not as good as they deserve. For those jobs, the only question they're really focusing on is, "will they fit in around here?"

If you like that, you might like this too.

What Matters Now - eBook from Seth Godin

The book highlights more than seventy big thinkers, each sharing an idea for you to think about. From bestselling author Elizabeth Gilbert to brilliant tech thinker Kevin Kelly, from publisher Tim O'Reilly to radio host Dave Ramsey, there are some important people riffing about important ideas here.

Download it here.