You could argue that we're in the middle of the first energy crisis of the 21st century.
While gas prices are finally on the way back down, the recent surge is driving inflation and has consumers thinking much more about where their oil comes from.
When I last wrote about oil production, the shocking "secret" was that the largest importer of oil into the U.S. was Canada - and that most of our oil was produced within the U.S.
While the U.S. is the largest producer of Oil, OPEC is the largest organization. OPEC accounts for 35% of total production, with Saudi Arabia accounting for a third of OPEC's output.
Almost half of the world's oil production comes from The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
Also, despite being the world's largest oil producer, the U.S. is still a net importer of oil.
Supply constraints on oil - as a result of sanctions on Russia - are creating a price increase with skyrocketing demand from mid-pandemic levels. Combine that with OPEC refusing to increase production to meet demand, and you have an energy shortage.
The U.S. has already started releasing barrels from its strategic reserves, and we've seen gas prices go down as a result, but it remains to be seen if our efforts will be enough to curb the shortage.
I'm writing this from International Falls, MN (someplace I never thought I'd be ... ). Meanwhile, one of the only less likely things, I can think of, is the article's topic.
Taylor Swift is known for being vocal about climate issues. She was also just 'outed' for the 170 flights her private jet took last year. The news came out after another celebrity was chastised for a 20-minute private jet flight. Taylor claims that most of those flights weren't hers – and that she rents the plane out. Knowing other people with private jets, that's believable.
There are obviously bigger problems in the world today. Nonetheless, I'm sharing this info anyways because the chart comparing her carbon footprint to the average person's caught my eye.
There's a lot of fear from workers about a future where their roles are taken. Gartner recently surveyed workers on what tasks they wanted AI to handle.
According to VentureBeat, some survey respondents did not want to use AI at work at all. Their reasons were privacy and security concerns.
I think one of the tasks that will be thrust upon AI companies is to help workers understand that AI is not meant to replace or take over their jobs, but to help workers be more effective and focused on higher-value tasks.
In 2016, I received this e-mail from my oldest son, who used to be a cybersecurity professional.
Date: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 7:09 PM To: Howard Getson Subject: FYI: Security Stuff
FYI - I just got an alert that my email address and my Gmail password were available to be purchased online.
I only use that password for my email, and I have 2-factor enabled, so I'm fine. Though this is further proof that just about everything is hacked and available online.
If you don't have two-factor enabled on your accounts, you really need to do it.
Since then, security has only become a more significant issue. I wrote about the Equifax event, but there are countless examples of similar events (and yes, I mean countless).
When people think of hacking, they often think of a Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack or the media representation of people breaking into your system in a heist.
In reality, the most significant weakness is people; it's you ... the user. It's the user that turns off automatic patch updating. It's the user that uses thumb drives. It's the user that reuses the same passwords. But, even if you do everything right, you're not always safe.
Your data is likely stored in dozens of places online. You hope your information is encrypted, but even that isn't always enough. Over the last 17 years, 17.2B records have been "lost" by various companies. In 2021, a new record was set with 5.9 billion user records stolen.
VisualCapitalist put together a visualization of the 50 biggest breaches since 2004.
It's impossible to protect yourself completely, but there are many simple things you can likely do better.
Use better passwords... Even better, don't even know them. You can't disclose what you don't know. Consequently, I recommend a password manager like LastPass or 1Password, which can also suggest complex passwords for you.
Check if any of your information has been stolen via a website like HaveIBeenPwned or F-Secure
Keep all of your software up to date (to avoid extra vulnerabilities)
Don't use public Wi-Fi if you can help it (and use a VPN if you can't)
Have a firewall on your computer and a backup of all your important data
Never share your personal information on an e-mail or a call that you did not initiate - if they legitimately need your information, you can call them back
Don't trust strangers on the internet (no, a Nigerian Prince does not want to send you money)
How many cybersecurity measures you take comes down to two simple questions ... First, how much pain and hassle are you willing to deal with to protect your data? And second, how much pain is a hacker willing to go through to get to your data?
My son always says, "you've already been hacked ... but have you been targeted?" Something to think about!
“Nobody phrases it this way, but I think that artificial intelligence is almost a humanities discipline. It's really an attempt to understand human intelligence and human cognition.” —Sebastian Thrun
We often use human consciousness as the ultimate benchmark for artificial exploration.
The human brain is ridiculously intricate. While weighing only three pounds, it contains about 100 billion neurons and 100 trillion connections between them. On top of the sheer complexity, the order of the connections and the order of actions the brain does naturally make it even harder to replicate. The human brain is also constantly reorganizing and adapting. It's a beautiful piece of machinery.
We've had millions of years for this powerhouse of a computer to be created, and now we're trying to do the same with neural networks and machines in a truncated time period. While deep learning algorithms have been around for a while, we're just now developing enough data and computing power to change deep learning from a thought experiment to a real edge.
Think of it this way, when talking about the human brain, we talk about left-brain and right-brain. The theory is that left-brain activities are analytical and methodical, and right-brain activities are creative, free-form, and artistic. We're great at training AI for left-brain activities (obviously with exceptions). In fact, AI is beating us at these left-brain activities because a computer has a much higher input bandwidth than we do, they're less biased, and they can perform 10,000 hours of research by the time you finish this article.
It's tougher to train AI for right-brain tasks. That's where deep learning comes in.
Deep learning is a subset of machine learning based on unsupervised learning from unstructured/unlabeled data. Instead of asking AI a question, giving it metrics, and letting it chug away, you're letting AI be intuitive. Deep learning is a much more faithful representation of the human brain. It utilizes a hierarchy of convolutional neural networks to handle linear and non-linear operations so it can think creatively to better problem-solve on potentially various data sets and in unseen environments.
When a baby is first learning to walk, it might stand up and fall down. It might then take a small stutter step, or maybe a step that's much too far for its little baby body to handle. It will fall, fail, and learn. Fall, fail, and learn. That's very similar to the goal of deep learning or reinforcement learning.
What's missing is the intrinsic reward that keeps humans moving when the extrinsic rewards aren't coming fast enough. AI can beat humans at many games but has struggled with puzzle/platformers because there's not always a clear objective outside of clearing the level.
A relatively new (in practice, not in theory) approach is to train AI around "curiosity"[1]. Curiosity helps it overcome that boundary. Curiosity lets humans explore and learn for vast periods of time with no reward in sight, and it looks like it can do that for computers too!
Soon, I expect to see AI learn to forgive and forget, be altruistic, follow and break rules, learn to resolve disputes, and even value something that resembles "love" to us.
It was fascinating how so many religions consider this the Holy Land. Here is a photo I took of the Wailing Wall and the Dome of the Rock in the Old City of Jerusalem.
It’s easy to feel closer to “something” while here.
Almost everything we saw in Israel is a testament to determination, ingenuity, and faith!
With that said, I started to think about how difficult it was to conceive of many of the things they built (considering how difficult it would be to execute or actually build them in the desert, without electricity, etc.). Many of the sites we visited took decades to build ... but have lasted for thousands of years. Examples include the Fortress at Masada, the Wailing Wall, and the Port of Caesaria. In my mind, I compare these moonshots to many of our current big, hairy, audacious goals (like reading and writing our DNA, autonomous artificial intelligence, or space exploration).
Technologies might change, but human nature has remained surprisingly consistent throughout time.
Not only does this help us see far away systems that we've never seen before, but it also provides detail to the things we have seen.
First, bring order to chaos …. Then, wisdom comes from making finer distinctions. With that in mind, I'm excited to see how this drives the future of science.
Here's a brief video from Neil Degrasse Tyson on the new telescope.
While simple, the wheel worked well (and still does). Consequently, the phrase "reinventing the wheel" often is used derogatorily to depict needless or inefficient efforts.
But how does that compare to sliced bread (which was also a pretty significant invention)?
Despite being a hallmark of innovation, it still took more than 300 years for the wheel to be used for travel. With a bit more analysis, it makes sense. In order to use a wheel for travel, it needs an axle, and it needs to be durable, and loadbearing, requiring relatively advanced woodworking and engineering.
All the aforementioned products created before the wheel (except for the flute) were necessary for survival. That's why they came first.
As new problems arose, so did new solutions.
Necessity is the mother of invention.
Unpacking that phrase is a good reminder that inventions (and innovation) are often solution-centric.
Too many entrepreneurs are attracted to an idea because it sounds cool. They get attracted to their ideas and neglect their ideal customer's actual needs. You see it often with people slapping "AI" on to their product and pretending it's more helpful.
If you want to be disruptive, cool isn't enough. Your invention has to be functional, and it has to fix a problem people have (even if they don't know they have it.) The more central the complaint is to their daily lives the better.
Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”
Innovation means thinking about and anticipating wants and future needs.
Your customers may not even need something radically new. Your innovation may be a better application of existing technology or a reframe of best practices.
Uber didn't create a new car, they created a new way to get from where you want with existing infrastructure and less friction. Netflix didn't reinvent the movie, they made it easier for you to watch one.
As an entrepreneur, the trick is build for human nature (meaning, give people what they crave or eliminate the constraint they are trying to avoid) rather than the cool new tech that you are excited about.
Human nature doesn’t seem to change much … Meanwhile, the pace of innovation continues to accelerate.
The challenge is to focus on what people want rather than the distraction of possibility.
According to Mohamed El-Erian, from Queens College at Cambridge University, we're experiencing stagflation - which is when inflation is high but growth is slowing significantly. Theoretically, that leads to recession.
The Consumer Price Index has also grown by over 8% in the past year, so the American household is facing financial threats from many angles.
Many feel that the Fed has responded disappointingly recently, and their response (or lack thereof) will be a major dictator of whether we enter a recession.
I believe that emotions play a role too. When people are afraid, they spend less and hoard what they can to save themselves from an unknown future. They feel anticipatory grief. And their fear, uncertainty, and doubt ripple through society and our lives.
Personally, I've weathered my heaviest storms by sailing toward the future regardless of the threats. An abundance mindset is a powerful tool, and as more people feel confident it becomes a macroeconomic trend with real influence.
I'd encourage you to think about what opportunities there are and will be. There are always seasons of change … Winter eventually comes – and goes. Nevertheless, winter can be a great opportunity to plan your next moves and build the infrastructure to sow more seeds in the coming spring.
As well, unlike nature, you can personally have springtime while the majority are in winter. We're currently in an A.I. springtime - and I believe that will continue regardless of economic trends.
Happy to talk about this … Let me know what you are thinking and feeling!
Oil Production By Country in 2021
You could argue that we're in the middle of the first energy crisis of the 21st century.
While gas prices are finally on the way back down, the recent surge is driving inflation and has consumers thinking much more about where their oil comes from.
When I last wrote about oil production, the shocking "secret" was that the largest importer of oil into the U.S. was Canada - and that most of our oil was produced within the U.S.
While the U.S. is the largest producer of Oil, OPEC is the largest organization. OPEC accounts for 35% of total production, with Saudi Arabia accounting for a third of OPEC's output.
Almost half of the world's oil production comes from The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
Also, despite being the world's largest oil producer, the U.S. is still a net importer of oil.
Supply constraints on oil - as a result of sanctions on Russia - are creating a price increase with skyrocketing demand from mid-pandemic levels. Combine that with OPEC refusing to increase production to meet demand, and you have an energy shortage.
The U.S. has already started releasing barrels from its strategic reserves, and we've seen gas prices go down as a result, but it remains to be seen if our efforts will be enough to curb the shortage.
What else do you think we should be doing?
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