The world will reach 8 billion people at some point this year. That is a new (and potentially scary) milestone.
Part of the concern stems from how fast population is growing. Consider that the world’s population has doubled during the last 50 years … and the geographic distribution of the population has changed as well. Here is an infographic that highlights some interesting trends.
If you want to look at where the economy is going over time, you don't have to guess to wildly. Population growth is a primary clue. Consequently, focus on where the most children are being born - or where relatively more children are being born recently. For example, economists don’t have to work too hard to figure out how many 18-year-olds will exist somewhere in the next 15 years – they start by counting the 3-year-olds.
While China, India, and the U.S. top the world's population lists (with the U.S. dramatically behind China and India), many countries are creeping up the list. In fact, Lagos, Nigeria's largest city, is expected to the world's biggest megacity by the end of the century. Many of the world's highest growth rates are found in Africa.
As another "surprise," India is set to pass China as the world's most populous country. Meanwhile, much of Europe's populations are contracting.
The U.S. is still growing – but is not matching the rates of emerging countries in Asia and Africa.
The world is expected to reach a population of around 10 Billion before 2100. With that said, many expect the number to decrease from there.
Interesting?
How do you think this will affect the next 20 years?
Rube Goldberg machines impress me more often than not. Here's a 70-step outdoor machine that covers a lot of ground ... all to put a basketball in a hoop. It took a month to create, and another month to get working.
I love stuff like this because it reminds me of life. Looking backward, you see how all the pieces go together. As you're going through it, it feels random and sometimes like you're moving backward or that your effort isn't directly contributing to your goal.
We’re sprinting toward the end of the year. Just under 100 days left.
Stress, high expectations, and a narrow focus often result in hurt feelings.
Of course, I understand that a little conflict is normal (or even beneficial).
Yet, last Wednesday was Yom Kippur (which means “Day of Atonement,” and which is one of the highest holy days in the Jewish religion). The holiday and its rituals are designed to help you be more sensitive to your actions, impact, and intent than usual.
As a technology entrepreneur focused on amplified intelligence (which means making better decisions, taking smarter actions, and continually improving performance), I recognize that we’re not using technology to replace humans. Instead, we’re automating activities that humans used to do – so that humans can focus on things more important and more in line with their unique abilities and tendencies.
On the other hand, one of the main reasons for automation is to avoid certain tendencies that are baked into human nature. I say that because as much as the world has changed in the last several thousand years, human nature has remained mostly the same. That’s apparent from the list of sins in the Yom Kippur Confessional (text available here). Even though these were written thousands of years ago, the list catalogs the behaviors and challenges that many of us deal with daily. It’s hard enough to change yourself, it’s unreasonable to expect to radically change others. Instead, if you want to increase the likelihood of certain actions, it makes sense to rely on technologies that are simple, reputable, consistent, and scalable to make your best intentions and best practices more common. This is why I say that amplified intelligence has an automatic advantage ... because it eliminates the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that humans naturally bring to a process.
Back to the holiday, during Yom Kippur, one of the rituals is to read down the list of sins, apologize for the ones you committed, ask for forgiveness, and promise to do better next year. Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).
I recognize that, sometimes, some of those traits can be part of effective strategies. And usually, people just brush off these smaller-scale sins with the excuse: “I was angry”; or “I’m only human”; or “There is no place for cry-babies in business.” Nevertheless, it’s important to remember that we should strive to be better and that even these smaller sins can harm the people around us.
To drive the point home further, here is the story of “The Nail in a Fence.” While you might have seen it before, it is worth reading again.
Nail In The Fence:
There once was a little boy who had a bad temper. His Father gave him a bag of nails and told him that every time he lost his temper, he must hammer a nail into the back of the fence.
The first day the boy had driven 37 nails into the fence. Over the next few weeks, as he learned to control his anger, the number of nails hammered daily gradually dwindled down.
He discovered it was easier to hold his temper than to drive those nails into the fence.
Finally the day came when the boy didn't lose his temper at all. He told his father about it; and the father suggested that the boy now pull out one nail for each day that he was able to hold his temper.
The days passed and the young boy was finally able to tell his father that all the nails were gone.
The father took his son by the hand and led him to the fence. He said, "You have done well, my son, but look at the holes in the fence. The fence will never be the same. When you say things in anger, they leave a scar just like this one. You can put a knife in a man and draw it out. It won't matter how many times you say I'm sorry, the wound is still there."
A verbal wound is as bad as a physical one.
One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you’re only ever one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others. As you recognize and repent for your sins, it’s also important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well. I like to think of good deeds as filling in the holes.
There’s plenty of time left in the year to do good, accomplish what you set out to do, make a change, and end the year on a high note.
There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet. What can you do? What will you do?
I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.
Bruce Willis is a legend of cinema, and he made many of my favorite movies of the 80s and 90s. He stayed relevant and exciting up until very recently.
Then, last year, he started releasing a slew of disappointing "straight-to-DVD" style movies that had him receiving his own award show category in the Razzies (an award show for the worst performances of the year). In 2021, they created the category "worst performance by Bruce Willis in a 2021 movie."
Vulture did an interesting interview with the founders of the Razzies where Bruce Willis comes up.
Then, it came out that Bruce Willis was diagnosed with Aphasia and was losing his ability to speak.
Suddenly, these pieces take on new meaning. They're Bruce getting as much work in as he can before he loses his voice permanently. He's trying to do what he knows how to do to make sure his wife and children are taken care of after he can no longer act.
It doesn't make the movies suddenly "great" but it was enough to get the Razzies to rescind their award.
I don't believe these last films of his dampen his well-earned legacy.
Last year, his digital twin showed up in a Russian telecom ad.
Recently, he's been in the news again for having sold his likeness to a deepfake company. It was reported on the company's website and by The Telegraph, but there are now claims to the contrary as well.
While the jury is still out on if his rights have been sold, I think it's likely you'll see more Bruce Willis deepfake content.
The question becomes, is it the right decision?
If his estate still has final approval - and there is quality control - then what's the harm?
Does the potential ubiquity, or the idea that we can always have another Bruce Willis movie, reduce the value of his movies?
Does allowing deepfakes in cinema (on TV or in film) take away roles from actors who might become stars?
We've already seen actors use deepfakes to reprise a role they did when they were younger - like Luke Skywalker or Leia from Star Wars. It's a different idea to build a new series around an actor who isn't actually acting in it.
These questions pair well with the discussion around AI-generated art and whether it should be considered art.
Cyberattacks are at an all-time high – and the more people you have in your business, the more likely you are to have exploitable weaknesses. For example, the World Economic Forum's Global Risk Report for 2022 stated that ransomware attacks have increased by 435% since 2020.
It's also worth noting that these numbers are likely understated, as companies are likely to downplay and hide security incidents.
Likewise, there is exponential growth in computer use, data production, apps and services (connected through your handphone, devices, or computers), and connected nodes in the internet-of-things (including garage doors, security systems, and a host of connected devices).
As some things become easier, other things get harder. Said another way, sometimes peril comes with progress.
A few years ago, I shared a presentation called Mindset Matters that I had given to a small mastermind group.
Recently, I have revisited that content in more detail and with finer distinction.
One of my core beliefs is that energy is one of the most important things we can measure. I believe it so strongly I paid Gaping Void to put it on my wall.
It means exactly what it sounds like - but also a lot more.
Energy affects how you feel, what you do, and what you make it mean. That means it is a great way to measure your values too. Consequently, even if you don't recognize it, energy has a lot to do with who you hire and fire. It affects where you spend our time. Ultimately, it even affects the long-term vision of our company. If something brings profit and energy, it is probably worth pursuing.
In contrast, one of the quickest ways to burn out is by fighting your energy. Figuring out who and what to say "no" to is an important way to make sure you stay on path and reach your goals.
Three Word Strategies.
I believe that words have power. Specifically, the words you use to describe your identity and your priorities change your reality.
First some background. Your Roles and Goals are nouns. That means “a person, place, or thing.” Lets examine some sample roles (like: father, entrepreneur, visionary, etc.) and goals (like: amplified intelligence, autonomous platform, and sustainable edge). As expected, they are all nouns.
Next, we’ll examine your default strategies. The strategies you use are verbs. That means they define an action you take. Action words include: connect, communicate, contribute, collaborate, protect, serve, evaluate, curate, share … and love. On the other end of the spectrum, you could complain, retreat, blame, or block.
People have habitual strategies. I often say happy people find ways to be happy – while frustrated people find ways to be frustrated. This is true for many things.
Seen a different way people expect and trust that you will act according to how they perceive you act.
Meanwhile, you are the most important perceiver.
Another distinction worth making to that the nouns and verbs we use range from timely to timeless. Timely words relate to what you are doing now. Timeless words are chunked higher and relate to what you have done, what you are doing, and what you will do.
The trick is to chunk high enough that you are focused on words that link your timeless Roles, Goals, and Strategies. When done right, you know that this is part of what makes you … “You”.
My favorite way to do this is through three-word strategies.
These work for your business, your priorities, your identity, and more.
I'll introduce the idea to you by sharing my own to start.
Understand. Challenge. Transform.
The actual words are less important than what they mean to me.
What's also important is that not only do these words mean something to me, but I've put them in a specific order, and I've made these words "commands" in my life. They're specific, measurable, and actionable. They remind me what to do. They give me direction. And, they are a strategy (or process) that creates a reliable result.
First, I understand, because I want to make sure I know all sides before I take action. For me, it is about seeing the bigger picture. It creates a golden thread from where I am to the bigger future possibility that I want.. Then, I challenge situations, people, norms, and more. I don’t challenge to tear down. I challenge to find strength … to figure out what to trust and rely upon. Finally, I transform things to make them better. Insanity is doing what you always do and expecting a different result. This is about finding where small changes create massive transformations. It is about committing to the result rather than how we have done things till now.
If I challenged before I knew the situation, or I tried to transform something without properly doing my research, I'd be shooting from the hip, and I'd cause more damage than good.
Likewise, imagine the life of someone who protects, serves, and loves. Compare that to the life of someone who loves, serves, and protects. The order matters!
I've set daily alarms on my phone with these words, I use them when I'm in meetings, and they're used to evaluate whether I'm showing up as my best self.
You can also create three words that are different for the different hats you wear, the products in your business, or how your team collaborates.
Finding Your Three Words
Just like recipes, your words should have ingredients, orders, and intensities. As you use your words more, the intensities might change. For example, when my son was just getting out of college, one of his words was contented because he was focused on all the things he missed from college - instead of being appreciative of the things he did have. Later, his words switched to grateful and then loving. Evolutions that paired with his personal journeys.
As well, your words should be actions. They should be things that you do, not just words that describe you. You want to be an active participant in your life - not a passive bystander. You can also see that in my son's words. As he grew, the word became an action that he wanted to approach life with, instead of just a feeling.
Once you learn how to create and use these simple three-word strategies, you can use them everywhere.
I own and use every product on the list above. One of my biggest insights from this year’s conference was that I already have great stuff. I have to remember to use it. Some of the stuff is terrific. I know it is. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t sit unused in a room upstairs (or in a box under my stairs). The scary thing is that I know better. Now I have to do better!
Each year I get a little bit more focused on what I can be doing to get more out of my time and to increase the quantity of time left.
Even with a renewed focus on health, it isn’t always easier. As my friend Ben Hardy says, Willpower Doesn’t Work – you have to identify goals that are bigger than yourself, create consequences and rewards for achieving or failing to achieve those goals, and change your environment to make success easy.
I don’t just want to be healthier to increase my time on earth, but to better support my family, my business, and to create a positive impact on those around me.
When you have a vision of who you want to be, and what you want to accomplish, achieving your goals becomes a lot easier.
When the goal is health, there are definitely some decisions that are proven to help. You can click to see the image in full-size.
On top of the science, here are some of my anecdotal opinions on living longer, healthier, and better:
Losing weight is as simple as calories in, calories out. It doesn’t matter if you’re on keto or eating only twinkies if you can keep your calories ingested below your calories burned. An equally simple alternative is to consider whether what you are about to eat, drink, or do is “cleansing” or “clogging”. We already know better!
Getting enough water and sleep are tips echoed so much that they get annoying. Nonetheless, they are true and help significantly.
In life, and in diets, shortcuts end up hurting you long-term more than they help you short-term. If something is worth doing, it is usually worth doing right.
Living “right” doesn’t mean you can’t let loose … it means that it’s the exception instead of the rule. If your lifestyle doesn’t let you have fun with your friends or family, it’s probably not the healthiest lifestyle. Mental health is just as important as physical health. From my perspective, deprivation or repression are far less effective or sustainable than delayed gratification.
I’d love to hear your favorite “trick” to living better. Feel free to send me an e-mail.
Are you trying to lead a healthier lifestyle? This data visualization can help you filter out the marketing hype to help you find the vitamins, minerals, and herbs that deliver tangible benefits ... versus those that serve only as a "Guaranteed Genuine Placebo".
Here is an interactive model of the most current research data. It is interesting because of the health research itself ... and because models (like this) have far-reaching applications. Click the image to play with the interactive version on InformationIsBeautiful.
I was surprised to see how many of the supplements I take weren't high on the list. I was also surprised to find a few effective supplements on the list that I don't take.
Some of you have seen how many supplements I take a day. I take so many pills that I split them up into morning, lunch, dinner, and bedtime. Despite that, I always like finding what else might help.
As a reminder, supplements are meant to support your health goals, and the secret to longevity is not going to be found without you also putting in the work yourself.
Regardless, I appreciated this look at the performance data behind various supplements.
Let me know if you find something you think is worth sharing.
Football season is officially underway! In honor of that, here's a look at each position's composite "player" (as of 2019).
As you might expect, different sports have different ratios of ethnicities. For example, you might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Asians in Badminton.
The same is true for various positions on a football team. Offensive linemen are more likely to be white – while running backs are more likely to be black.
Here is a visualization that shows what happens when you average the top players' faces in various positions.
While you may be thinking "this player must be unstoppable" ... statistically, he's average.
The "composite" NFL player would be the 848th best player in the league. He's not a starter, and he plays on an average team. You probably don't know his name if you don't root for his team.
We found the same thing with our trading bots. The ones that made it through most filters weren't star performers. They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories). Meaning, the survivors were generalists – not specialists.
In an ideal world, with no roster limits, you'd want the perfect lineup for each granular situation. You'd want to evaluate players on how they perform under pressure, on different downs, against other players, and with different schemes.
That's what technology lets you do with algorithms. You can have a library of systems that communicate with each other ... and you don't even have to pay their salary (but you will need data scientists, researchers, machines, data, alternative data, electricity, disaster recovery, and a testing platform).
You won't find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety. Generalists are great, but you also have to be able to respond to specific conditions.
Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 16th, 2022
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
Lighter Links:
Trading Links:
Posted at 12:17 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Food and Drink, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Religion, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Travel, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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