When I was young, the Space Race captured the hearts and souls of Americans. But, for the past few decades, it was in the background. Recently, that has changed. The space race is getting hot again. Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX is leading the pack.
In 2018, I shared excitement that the boosters he used were reusable. Today, people are talking about how his ship, Starship, could render other rocket programs obsolete.
Fifty-one years after we last landed on the moon, the U.S. is back, and it wasn’t Elon, but the private company Intuitive Machines finally accomplishing the feat.
Odysseus, the unmanned lander, is now sending data back to Earth.
Despite the massive leapfrog in technology over the past 51 years, this is still a massive achievement for several reasons. It was done by a private company, it was still very expensive, it precedes a 2026 manned flight from NASA, and it’s the first commercial flight - not just from the U.S. - to make it to the moon. The trip’s goal is to research the area NASA plans to use for an upcoming mission. They believe there are beads of frozen water in the area, which could help sustain a permanent settlement.
For many years, landing on the moon wasn’t getting any money. Money was scarce. We brought back over 800 pounds of moon rock on our last visit, and what little money there was went to more novel missions. The moon landing symbolizes excitement about the long-term potential of the moon, not just space travel.
I love spaceflight for a lot of the same reasons I love AI.
It’s a global initiative heralding innovation and improvements that transform the world. It’s the genesis of many exponential technologies.
Many astronauts, even from back in the Apollo days, talk about the incredible feeling they get after a few days in space. As they gaze on the Earth from above, they lose their sense of borders and nationality. The Saudi astronaut Sultan bin Salman Al-Saud, who flew on the Space Shuttle in 1985, commented on this, saying, “The first day or so we all pointed to our countries. On the third or fourth day, we were pointing to our continents. By the fifth day, we were aware of only one Earth.”
It reminds me of Carl Sagan’s video on “The Pale Blue Dot.”
In 1977, five years after we left the moon, the Voyager 1 launched into space. Just over a dozen years later, the Voyager 1 spacecraft had traveled farther than any spacecraft/probe/human-made anything had gone before. It was approximately 6 billion kilometers away from Earth. At that point, the Voyager 1 was “told” by Carl Sagan to turn around and take one last photo of the Earth ... a pale blue dot.
The resulting photo is impressive precisely because it shows so little in so much.
“Every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there--on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.” – Carl Sagan
Earth is in the far right sunbeam – a little below halfway down the image. This image (and the ability to send it back to Earth) was the culmination of years of effort, the advancement of technology, and the dreams of humankind.
The resulting speech from Carl Sagan is still profound, moving, and worth a listen.
via Carl Sagan
Here’s the transcript:
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Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every “superstar,” every “supreme leader,” every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there--on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner, how frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds.
Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.
The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. At least in the near future, there is nowhere else to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand.
It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known.
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Today, we have people living in space, posting videos from the ISS, and high-resolution images of space and galaxies near and far.
We take for granted the immense phase shift in technology. You have more computing power in your pocket than we first used to go to the moon.
As humans, we’re wired to think locally and linearly. We evolved to live in small groups, fear outsiders, and stay in a general region until we die. We’re not wired to think about the billions and billions of individuals on our planet, or the rate of technological growth - or the minuteness of that all in regard to the expanse of space.
However, today’s reality necessitates thinking about the world, our impact, and what’s now possible.
We created better and faster ways to travel, we’ve created instantaneous communication networks across vast distances, and we’ve created megacities. Our tribes have gotten much bigger - and with that, our ability to enact massive change has grown as well.
Space was the first bastion of today’s innovation, but today, we can look toward AI, medicine, epigenetics, and more.
It’s hard to comprehend the scale of the universe and the scale of our potential ... but that’s what makes it worth exploring!
Onwards!
The Doomsday Clock Is Ticking
There are a number of destabilizing events that make me hope for peace, love, and prosperity. There are increasingly dangerous active military conflicts, a contentious election in front of us, and a host of other issues related to the promise or peril associated with the clash between exponential technologies and human fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.
With that said, random worry isn't a good strategy. I like to measure subjective things as objectively as possible. With that in mind, this post discusses something called the Doomsday Clock.
The History of the Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 (following the successful testing of the first atomic bomb by the United States) to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons. The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world. The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.
In 1953, after both the US and Soviet Union tested hydrogen bombs, the clock was set at two minutes to midnight, which is the closest it has ever been to a global catastrophe. In recent years, the clock has taken into account not only nuclear weapons but also climate change and other emerging threats.
The Significance of the Doomsday Clock in Modern Times
Today, the Doomsday Clock remains an important symbol of humanity's vulnerability and the need for urgent action to prevent a global disaster. The clock serves as a reminder that we must work together as a global community to address existential threats facing our planet.
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board determines where to set the clock each year based on international events and scientific advancements. As such, it provides an objective measure of how close we are to destruction.
Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one. A list of the most significant existential threats to humanity includes:
Nuclear War: The threat of atomic weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.
Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.
Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.
Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not adequately regulated and controlled.
Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.
Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.
Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat. So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.
The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947. In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times. The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds. This was a small but significant shift. But, this year, 2024, there was no shift.
Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception.
via flowingdata
The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity. Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act.
And necessity is often the mother of invention.
We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions). Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges.
With collaboration among the brightest minds across the globe and private industry, we can solve even the world's most significant problems.
If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity.
Onwards!
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