Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 17th, 2019

The US grounded the Boeing 737 Max after similarities between two crashes. It's good they did, safety first, but it definitely caused some headaches coming back from Saskatchewan.  There's an interesting thought experiment here to understand the complexities that the airlines had to solve.

Imagine a 737 holds 200 people and does 4 or 5 flights a day. American has 24 737s in its fleet. That means each day ~24,000 people are displaced on American Airlines alone. They're replacing those planes with smaller regional jets – meaning more flights, more small airports, and more delays. The logistical/supply chain dynamics are a nightmare. 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• DARPA's New AI, Machine Learning 'Breakthrough'. (Realcleardefense)
• Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life inside Tesla's Production Hell. (Wired)
• The Psychology behind Costco's Free Samples. (The Atlantic)
• The Fall of Rome and the Lessons for America. (Time)
• How Timeboxing Works and Why It Will Make You More Productive. (HBR)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Despite Store Closings, There's Still One Blockbuster Store Left in the World. (USAToday)
• Oracle's Larry Ellison Has a $1 Billion Stake in Tesla. (TheStreet)
• Mansa Musa: the Richest Man Who Ever Lived. (BBC)
• Amazon Go Cashierless Stores are Coming to Airports. (VentureBeat)
• Millions of Japanese Homes are Abandoned, and Owners are Giving Them Away for Free. (BusinessInsider)

Avoiding Death By Snowmobile: Part II

Last year, I recounted my humbling via snowmobile. 

I traveled to Saskatchewan, Canada and "sledded" with people who had been doing it since birth. 

When I got there, everyone was in great spirits. Apparently, this is a sport done with day drinking, lots of laughter, and semi-reckless abandon.

We split into groups: Insane, Merely Crazy, and the Turtles. I figured I was relatively safe with the Turtles ... I was wrong. 

 

 

The machines are capable of gliding over the snow at speeds exceeding 120 miles per hour.  I wasn't going nearly that fast ... but the beasts were harder to tame than I expected. 

Despite crashing numerous times, totaling a sled, and being sore for weeks ... I had so much fun on year one that I brought my son with me on year two. 

 

 

Last year, I recognized 2 things: 

1. Humans are deletion creatures. That means they can hold seven things (plus or minus two) in their memory. While they were focused on fun, I was focused on how to stay on the sled
2. You're supposed to stay on the sled, and leaning into the turn helps you do that ... who'd've thunk it? 

This year I learned a couple more: 

1. People don't forget. Everyone remembered my less than skillful sledding. 
2. Youth is wasted on the young. My son picked it up fast and was speeding as if he'd been on a sled his whole life (despite falls that would cause people with skulls that no longer have soft spots to proceed with caution). 
3. When you find the right group of people, the fun gets more fun, and struggles seem less challenging. 

 

While sledding is fun, it's the people that make the trip. 

Likewise, it's the people you take with you through life that makes it so worth it. 

Oh, and I did suck less this time ... Progress!

 

The Too True Story of "The Nail in a Fence"

In the course of business this week, I noticed that certain comments and interactions triggered hurt feelings.

Stress, high expectations, and a narrow focus often result in hurt feelings.

Of course, I understand that a little conflict is normal (or even beneficial).  Yet, I guess I'm getting a little softer as I get older.

It doesn't take "intent" to hurt someone's feelings (or to have your feelings hurt).  It can happen by a simple disagreement, a stubborn point of view, a dismissive comment, or even a judgmental look.

Sometimes, the catalyst can be part of effective strategies.  And normally, people just brush off these smaller-scale disturbances with the excuse with: "I was angry"; or “I’m only human”; or "There is no place for cry-babies in business."  Nevertheless, it’s important to remember that we should strive to be better.

To drive the point home further, here is the story of "The Nail in a Fence."  While you might have seen it before, it is worth reading again. 

 

Nail In The Fence:

 

There once was a little boy who had a bad temper. His Father gave him a bag of nails and told him that every time he lost his temper, he must hammer a nail into the back of the fence.

The first day the boy had driven 37 nails into the fence. Over the next few weeks, as he learned to control his anger, the number of nails hammered daily gradually dwindled down.

He discovered it was easier to hold his temper than to drive those nails into the fence.

Finally the day came when the boy didn't lose his temper at all. He told his father about it; and the father suggested that the boy now pull out one nail for each day that he was able to hold his temper.

The days passed and the young boy was finally able to tell his father that all the nails were gone.

The father took his son by the hand and led him to the fence. He said, "You have done well, my son, but look at the holes in the fence. The fence will never be the same. When you say things in anger, they leave a scar just like this one. You can put a knife in a man and draw it out. It won't matter how many times you say I'm sorry, the wound is still there."

A verbal wound is as bad as a physical one.

 

This story is a reminder to be mindful of cause and intent.  Hope it helps.

Causing pain to others is one problem.  Causing pain to ourselves is another.

Feeling and stoking anger is like taking poison and hoping the other person suffers.  It isn't efficient or practical.

So, what about "Forgiving"?

It doesn't have to be forgetting.  

Forgiving removes the valence (or charge) from a situation or memory.

It only takes a moment to create an emotional trigger (think about how you felt when you saw a high school bully in the hallway).  It is simple, evolution and natural selection favored species that remembered and avoided danger.  It is in our DNA.  But avoidance isn't always a great strategy ... especially when it is blocking the attainment of something beneficial.

Forgiveness is a way to disable or mute the emotional trigger (this is called "collapsing an anchor" in NLP). It's also a choice to move forward.

Forgiveness is also a release of "claim".  When we are wronged, we expect an apology, retribution, restitution, or recognition.  And until we get it, we are stuck, waiting for it.  In a sense, forgiveness releases the stuck energy and makes it available for something else (hopefully, something better).

Forgiveness changes the route and allows you to move forward.

And I've found that good things happen more often when you are in motion.

Who or what do you need to forgive?

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 27th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links

• Giving Algorithms a Sense of Uncertainty Could Make Them More Ethical.(TechReview)
• How Musicians Communicate Non-Verbally While Performing.(PsychCentral)
• Welcome to the World's Largest Gathering of Humans. (NPR)
• The Evolutionary Advantages of an Addictive Personality. (Scientific American)
• George Orwell Predicted Cameras Would Watch Us in Our Homes; He Never Imagined We'd Gladly Buy and Install Them Ourselves.(OpenCulture)

 

 

Trading Links

• The Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence. (Forbes)
• Apple Named 'World's Most Admired Company' for 12Th Year in a Row.(MacRumors)
• The Government Shutdown May Ripple through the IPO Market for Months. (Quartz)
• Billionaire Ray Dalio Shares a 3-Step Formula for Anyone to Start Investing.(CNBC)
• Ex-Goldman Banker Describes Finance as "Dark Art," Advocates Running McDonalds Franchise Instead. (News)

 

Celebrating a Well Lived Life

I was in California this week to celebrate my Mother's 79th birthday.   

  

 

She is still very committed to living life to its fullest – and spreading joy and love to those around her. 

It made me think about how each of us is so different ... yet, we are also similar.

Over time, each of us is insignificant and yet each has altered the course of history. 

Individually, and collectively, I think it makes sense to leave things better than we found them.

One of our most important decisions is how we choose to matter. 

How do you intend to make your mark? 

What will be your legacy? 

A Look Back at "The Crazy Ones"

I remember being mesmerized the first time I saw Apple Computers iconic "Crazy Ones" video as part of their Think Different campaign.

Steve Jobs originally recorded a version of "The Crazy Ones" himself, but chose to release the Richard Dreyfuss narrated version. 

 

via YouTube

Here is the text version of the script.

 

Here's to the crazy ones.
The misfits.
The rebels.
The troublemakers.
The round pegs in the square holes.

The ones who see things differently.

They're not fond of rules.
And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them, disagree with them,
glorify or vilify them.
About the only thing you can't do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They push the human race forward.

While some may see them as the crazy ones,
we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

    –     © 1997 Apple Computer, Inc.

Click here for extra material about the video and campaign. 

I think it has held up pretty well, and I had this piece of art commissioned for my office. 

There's a lot to be said for carving your own path, for pushing past perceived limits and accomplishing something hard to ignore.  

 

Setting Yourself Up For Success

We're about to usher in a new year – along with its promise and pressure.

We get a fresh start.  We look forward to what we will achieve – but history says we rarely achieve everything we hope (it is also true that we rarely achieve things we don’t hope for).

So, dream big dreams!

Personally, I’m excited about 2019. Despite the volatile market and uncertain political climate, Capitalogix has spent almost 20 years preparing for where we are today. 

Regardless of the outcome, we are doing things that seemed like science fiction even a few years ago.  

I commissioned this image to remind our team to keep shooting higher.

 

 

Resilience, resourcefulness, and a worthy goal are the keys to many entrepreneurial success stories.

In the spirit of New Year's Resolutions – I’ll add that a deliberate approach to goals is important too.

Commit to your bigger, directional compass, goals. 

Once you know what your long-term goal is, it is relatively easy to plan out the steps you need to achieve that goal.  Achieving smaller goals reinforces success, builds momentum, and makes continued progress feel more likely.

Extra points if you make them SMARTs (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-Sensitive).

It's not "I want to lose weight this year" it's "I want to exercise at least three times a week and track my calories daily so I lose at least 1 pound each month."

Actions speak louder than words, and your words can distract you. 

If your goal is to win first place at a competition, focus on the metrics of a first-place finish instead of the medal. This makes the goal concrete and sets an internal locus of control on your victory.  This also means that you don't need to tell others your goal too soon. Studies show that when you announce your intention to a goal in public, you decrease the likelihood of you succeeding. 

Ask yourself: 

Are the people around you the right people? Are you putting your money where your mouth is? Are you taking ownership of your actions, even when you can find excuses not to?

It's okay to misstep, it's okay to get stuck - but recognize what you've done and move forward. 

Often the most frustrating thing that any of us feel on a regular basis is to want something really bad, and not be able to get it right away.

It's getting so that it's increasingly rare to find people who are truly willing to put in the requisite time necessary to get the traits or items they want.  Our world today is trying to teach us that we must get what we want immediately; that it's our right.  And that's why so many of us are jealous, smoke or drink, are overweight, use drugs, etc. ...

Life is NOT like school.

In school, you can trick yourself into thinking you're doing great if you cram for exams and get decent scores. It is possible to get fairly good grades for a while that way.

But you don't learn it.  You're likely to just remember it until the exam is over... maybe.

In school, you can fool the system and yourself.  In the rest of the world, success leaves clues (and an imprint on you and your behavior patterns).

Real life is like a farm.

On the farm, you must choose what to plant.  Then, you must move the rocks, buy the seeds, till the soil, plant the seeds, buy and maintain the equipment, pull weeds, keep the pests away, water the crops, fertilize, etc.  And, for the most part, it’s not one and done ... you need to keep up with what’s needed every day!

 



Follow the plan, and with some luck, you’ll harvest a decent crop at the end of the season.

Life is like this, too.  You can't "cram" in life. 

Don't be fooled.  Overnight successes often take a lot longer than you’d think to gestate.

Luck often takes a lot work.  

Put the effort in today and you'll get luckier and luckier.  Will it be immediate?  Probably not.  Beat this into your head... Anything truly worth having is worth the time, the effort, and the sacrifice you need to invest in order to get it.

My grandkids one day will look back and say "Wow, our grandpa sure was in the right place at the right time." And to a certain degree, they're right ... but it took a lot of work to be this lucky. 

It's also important (once you've accomplished your goal) to set new goals. Capitalogix has a 20-year plan from today, and that's because I never got comfortable with what we'd accomplished.

If you're standing still, you're moving backward. 

Here's to a successful 2019 and an even more successful 2040.  

Onwards!

The Psychology Behind Gambling (and Everyday Traders)

Vegas and Wall Street share a lot in common. 

Over Time ... The House Wins

Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win.  In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.

Why does this happen?  The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incent people to play lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.

Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well.  Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win, 

The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.  

In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money - from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights and even the games themselves. 

Here is an infographic that lays it out for you. 

Bojoko via DailyInfographic

Most people aren't gamblers ... the fear of losing big inhibits them.  However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk-aversion when gambling. 

 

The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics. 

 

When you almost get it right - when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win - you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets ... because you're "so close". 

It's human nature to want to feel in control. 

This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing ... if you throw the dice in this particular way ... if you check your holdings at this time every day ... you have control. 

There is a big difference between causation and correlation. 

It is not hard to imagine that the majority of a trader's activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.  

 

Skill vs. Luck

There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.

In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill.  In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.

In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.

Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.

In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.

We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance ... Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that the majority of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.

Are you playing the right game?

 

A Quick Visit to Park City as a Noobie Skier

Humpty Dumpty tried skiing ... and is leaving with 10 fingers and 10 toes still attached in all the right places!

 

 

Skillful skiers relax and let physics do a lot of the work.  I used muscles way too much and way too often.

When I was done, I was WIPED!!!!  

Nevertheless, it was a lot of fun ... and I plan on doing it again.

Thanks Randy Garn for shaming into trying this. Park City, Utah was beautiful.

 

 

Tackled on Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving!

My children came to town, and we continued our tradition of spending time together watching some football. The top photo is from 2008. 

 

After looking at this picture, I recognize the burden I impose on my sons.  Some would call it crushing. 

 

 

That's my oldest son, Ben. He's a good sport.

My youngest son, Zach, was happy to make sure that I got mine too. 

 

 

He still plays Rugby. 

I am thankful for my family, my company and that I continually face a better class of challenges ... forging a path to a bigger future.

What about you?