Last week, I introduced the idea of a new normal.
As a small business owner, in the midst of this pandemic, I'm not thinking about what's necessary to continue doing what I was doing yesterday. I'm focused on what I can do to prepare for tomorrow. Things won't go back to the way they were, but they will go back to normal. Only, it will be a new normal. It's a good lesson in being attached to a result, not a medium for a result.
The "new normal" is a topic that has been coming up in a lot of different places, because of the situation in which we all find ourselves.
These Are Not Unprecedented Times
I've heard a lot of people use the phrase "these are unprecedented times" but they're not. Ignoring how many different industry-disrupting era's we've had (think the Dot Com Bubble), we've also had numerous pandemics, and we're better prepared to handle them today than at any other time in history.
Here is a short video from Simon Sinek that I thought was relevant, well-done, and inspiring. I encourage you to watch it.
via Simon Sinek
What Comes Next?
"I'm not worried about what I do, I'm worried about why I do it." - Simon Sinek
After some time, things will go back to "normal." Your goal for today should be to sow the seeds to today that prepare you for that day. I'll backtrack a step and acknowledge, if you're struggling to survive, survival comes first. Regardless, you need to make sure you're asking yourself the right questions.
When you ask better questions, you get better answers.
What will you need when it's back to business as usual? How can you help others better themselves through this period? Who can you help?
If the theme for right now is building a new normal, one of my life's themes is the belief in moonshots and exponential thinking.
Your response to this pandemic should be the same as your response to disruptive innovation.
You should be attracted to a result, not a medium, and paying attention to how you can capitalize on the wave.
Blockbuster, RadioShack, Kodak, all went out of business due to shortsighted myopia in the face of change.
Opportunity or Chaos ... You get to decide!
Onward!
What Can My Dogs Teach Us About Trading?
I wrote this back in 2008. With minor updates, it seems relevant again.
At the other end of the spectrum are our two small dogs, Boo and Jasper. Boo, our 20-pound mix between a Beagle and a Boston terrier. Let's just say that he has a higher metabolism than Duke.
When Boo hears a noise, he lets out an involuntary, barely audible, sound. His body becomes rigid and his head cocks. He becomes alert and carefully tunes his ears to their most sensitive setting, seeking any information that will help identify the "danger." He's now primed for the next intrusion.
Usually, there are no other disturbances to follow, and the noise is cataloged and soon forgotten. His alertness level slowly subsides over the next 10-15 minutes or so. He'll go back to napping, a little more fitfully this time … and just a little bit on edge.
Things get a little more interesting when another noise surfaces shortly after the first one. What could once be dismissed now must be treated as a threat – and just to be safe, a threat of the highest order. Now the appropriate response is a series of barks, nervous glances, pacing, rushing off in the direction of the noise to investigate, and a barrage of barks meant to sound more menacing than the source of the noise. Who or what is it? How much harm can they cause? How grave is the threat?
Jasper, our high-anxiety mutt, is never off alert. He doesn't know what's a threat, and what's not, so he's always creating threats out of nothing and riling up our other dogs.
The same thing happens in the market with people.
In the market, it is the second noise - and subsequent noises - that creates the equivalent of the Homeland Security "Red Alert." Once an elevated level of alertness has been established, it takes a long period of relative calm for it to subside. And when on "Red Alert" … any additional noises (for example, the responses of the other market participants) - big or small - will highlight, magnify, and further validate the issue.
But, like in the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf," even legitimate threats are ignored after too many false alarms (or prolonged periods of constant alert). So, bad news about the economy isn't as likely to get people excited after the past few weeks.
As people (or bots) become "used" to today's new normal, It'll be interesting to see what sprouts up. The longer away from the initial episode, the more real the effect can be attributed.
The unfortunate reality is that the Boo and Jasper style "overreaction" to a crisis can exacerbate the long-term effects of the crisis. To balance that, on the macro level, a stronger pandemic response has been shown to increase economic recovery.
This has been the theme from the beginning. Don't personally panic, but respond aggressively on the city, state, and national level.
Food for thought.
Posted at 07:06 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Science, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
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