The pandemic has affected many things beyond basic health. Increasingly, I see research showing meaningful increases in pornography consumption, suicide rates, and a host of other trends that are shaping our world today ... but, in the longer-term, it is also affecting the face of tomorrow.
Flexible Workplaces
In May, after only several months of lock-down, I was surprised how many businesses decided that they had no intention of ever requiring their employees to come back into the office.
As we close in on a year in the pandemic, I am surprised how easily we adapted to the new normal. Even with a vaccine in sight, I suspect many of the adaptations will remain.
Personally, I like going to the office. Most days, I still do ... even though a tiny fraction of our people are there.
With that said, I know that our business matured. We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable. We've gotten better at deciding what's a meeting (versus an e-mail or an online chat). People are working hours that are more comfortable for them, and we see meetings happen both earlier and later than they used to, before the quarantine.
As a macro trend, we also see a flight from urban centers.
via visualcapitalist
I keep hearing about people moving far from their work-places. Ultimately, they decided that remote work enables a new form of freedom for them – to live where they want, regardless of what they do (or who they do it for).
Over time, I'm curious how a remote workforce will impact the quality and the amount of work done.
Adding to my initial concerns, flexible workspaces cause (or exacerbate) other issues, including cybersecurity, digital collaboration, defining the new workday, and a host of other challenges.
Digital Explosion
I remember the early 2000s and the distress I felt watching how many time cycles my son "wasted" being on his phone (which to me, at that time, seemed like "all-the-time"). But, in retrospect, that was nothing.
Flash forward to 2019, and everything was even more "digital" and "smart." Refrigerators, exercise bikes, billboards, and more all had screens, and 2-year-olds were already digitally literate. "All-the-time" took on a whole new meaning.
Somehow, the pandemic still took our reliance on the digital world (or our augmented alternate reality) to the next level.
via Alaska DHSS
Kids are also getting less physical activity and human contact, and spending much more time online. Contributing to this is the reality that much of their academics have been forced online. Likewise, adults also are shifting more of their attention and activity cycles to the digital world.
Continued screen-time increases coincide with video game revenue spiking and Internet traffic increasing by more than 50% worldwide.
As the world opens up, I still expect digital reliance numbers to stay above pre-COVID benchmarks. People's reliance on digital to feed their need for information, entertainment, and companionship is growing.
Changing Business Landscape
Starting with consumers, we've seen a massive movement toward frictionless and touchless payment. Even physical stores are prioritizing getting in and out without having to deal with another human. In addition, there's a massive move toward delivery services for groceries and meals.
On top of the changes to normal retail services, reliance on online shopping has increased, while the time it takes for electronic purchases to your door has decreased. Combined, these factors will terraform commerce. Consequently, this year was likely an inflection point for e-commerce penetration ... and, from that perspective, life will never be the same again.
via visual capitalist
Despite the growth of online retail, many small businesses that couldn't move online are struggling, and many have already gone under.
Which leads to the next trend ...
Increasing Wealth Stratification
While small business owners and front line workers have been struggling, billionaires saw their wealth increase by over half a trillion dollars.
Part of this is due to government aid toward large companies, part of it is due to tax laws, and part of it is due to the digital rise mentioned in the previous section. The big tech companies were already thriving, and the pandemic created a positive inflection point.
Despite those gains, the pandemic hit millennials and small businesses hard.
via Morning Consult
The longer the economy is affected by COVID-19 measures, the larger the wealth inequality will grow, and the more people you can expect looking for government assistance. The strong will thrive while others will suffer increasingly from learned helplessness.
Obviously, the 2020 quarantine has created impacts in many other areas – including family stress, community isolation, political radicalization, etc. Moreover, these effects won't be isolated to this year - and we should expect many to impact our "new normal" for years to come.
Some people consider this a challenge. I think it's the playing field. It's going to be true for everyone. What you make it mean, and what you choose to do, it is up to you. Some will be like a cork, floating on the water, going where the tide takes it. Others will recognize the situation as an opportunity and thrive.
The impact has been global, but the choices you make are local ... and they are still your to make.
Here is to making 2021 our best year yet!
Onwards!
Who Can You Trust?
Information is Power.
Consequently, your choice of information source heavily contributes to your perceptions, ideas, and worldview.
Coincidently, news sources are a lightning rod for vitriol and polemic.
I am still a little surprised by the abject hatred I hear expressed towards a particular news source by those who hold an opposing bias. This often leads to claims of fake news, delusion, and partisan press. Likewise, it is common to hear derision toward anyone who consumes that news source.
Perhaps the reality is that that most sources are flawed – and the goal should simply be to find information that sucks less?
It's to the point where if you watch the news, you're misinformed; and if you don't watch the news, you're uninformed. News sources aren't just reporting the news, they're creating opinions and arguments that become the news. And many don't care enough to think for themselves - or to extract the facts from the opinion.
Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank on various scales. You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details.
via Ad Fontes Media
I once spent fifteen minutes in an argument about how you know whether the information in this chart is true. If you're curious about their methods, click here.
Distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach is the "new normal."
Perhaps even more dangerous is the amount of fake news and haphazard research shared on social media. Willful misrepresentations of complex issues are now a too common communication tactic now on both sides ... and the fair and unbiased consideration of issues suffers.
Social media spreads like wildfire, and by the time it has been debunked (or proven to be an oversimplification) the damage is done. People are convinced ... and some will never go beyond that.
The reality isn't as bleak. People agree on a lot more than they say they do. It is often easier to focus on "us" versus "them" rather than what we agree upon jointly. This is true on a global scale. We agree on a lot. Most Democrats aren't socialists, and most Republicans aren't fascists ... and the fact that our conversation has drifted there is intellectually lazy.
This idea that either side is trying to destroy the country is clearly untrue (OK, mostly untrue). There are loonies on the fringes of any group, but the average Democrat is not that unlike the average Republican. You don't have to agree with their opinions, but you should be able to trust that they want our country to succeed.
I don't know that we have a solution. But there is one common "fake news" fallacy I want to explain at least a little.
It's called the Motte and Bailey fallacy. It's named after a style of medieval castle prioritizing military defense.
Launceston Castle via Chris Shaw, CC BY-SA 2.0
On the left is a Motte, an artificial mound often topped with a stone structure, and on the right is a Bailey, the enclosed courtyard. The Motte serves to protect not only itself but also the Bailey.
As a form of argument, an arguer conflates two positions that share similarities. One of the positions is easy to defend (the motte) and the other is controversial (the bailey). The arguer advances the controversial position, but when challenged insists they're only advancing the moderate position. Upon retreating the arguer can claim that the bailey hasn't been refuted, or that the critic is unreasonable by equating an attack on the bailey with an attack on the motte.
It's a common method used by newscasters, politicians, and social media posters alike. And it's easy to get caught in it if you don't do your research.
Conclusion
As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias.
We believe what we want to believe ... so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence.
But, hopefully, in learning about these fallacies, and being aware, we do better.
I will caution that blind distrust is dangerous – because it feels like critical thought without forcing you to critically think.
Distrust is good ... but too much of a good thing is a bad thing.
Not everything is a conspiracy theory or a false flag.
Do research, give more credence to experts in a field - but don't blindly trust them either. How well do you think you're really thinking for yourself?
It's a complicated world, and it's only getting more complicated. But, hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble and learn more about those you disagree with.
Posted at 08:08 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Science, Television, Trading, Trading Tools, Weblogs | Permalink | Comments (0)
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