Capitalogix

How Long You Have Left

We only have a limited time on this earth ... and a lot of it is spent on frivolous activities. 

How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones ... or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

The answer is a lot.

Although this chart hasn't been updated recently, it still provides a helpful glimpse of the bigger picture. 

 

via Anna Vital

Nine years in front of entertainment devices - another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.

If you have goals you want to accomplish, places you want to go, and lifestyle aspirations to experience, this puts the idea of finding and living your passion into perspective. 

Do you have the time to waste it?

VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

 

via visualcapitalist
 

According to this calculator, since I'm over 60, I only have about 20 years left.   I expect more!

There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 ... but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

While these numbers appear high, there are two key considerations. First, COVID-19 heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates increased. 

Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which may differ from your own (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

Ultimately, I believe Purpose is one of the most significant catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire ... not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

If you're not growing, you're dying!

AI: We're Not Just Prompts!

AI’s trajectory isn’t just upward—it’s curving ever steeper. From DeepMind’s groundbreaking models to Flow’s democratization of filmmaking, people are becoming used to how quickly AI technology improves.

 

Breakneck doesn’t even seem adequate to explain the scale of the movements. Because it isn’t just about the rate of change – even the rate of change of the rate of change is accelerating ... and the result is exponential progress.

 

Here is a simple example. Remember when you mocked AI-generated videos on social media for obvious flaws (e.g., six fingers, unnatural blinking or movement, etc.). Over the past few months, AI media quality has improved so much that spotting fakes is now difficult, even for tech-savvy people.

 

Well, we just took another giant leap.

 

This week, Google’s DeepMind unit released three new core AI models: Imagen for image generation,  Lyria for music generation, and Veo 3 for video generation.

It only takes a quick look at Veo 3 to realize it represents a significant breakthrough in delivering astonishingly realistic videos.

I’m only including two examples here ... but I went down the rabbit hole and came away very impressed.

Take a look – Everything in the clip below may be fake, but the AI is real.

 

via Jerrod Lew

The era of effortless, hyper-real content has arrived.

 

One of the big takeaways from tools like this is that you no longer need content creation talent other than your ideas.

 

An example of this comes from Google’s new AI filmmaking tool, Flow. 

What Is Flow?

What if creating professional-grade videos required no cameras, no crew, and no weeks of editing?

 

Flow can imagine and create videos just from your ideas. Kind of like telling a friend a story and having them draw or act it out instantly.

How Does It Work?

Think of Flow as a giant box of movie Legos. You can bring your own pieces (like pictures or clips) or ask Flow to make new pieces for you. Then, you snap them together to build scenes and clips that look like real movies.

Why Is This Cool?

It is becoming easier for almost anyone to create the type of content that only a specialist could produce before. The tool makes it easy in these three ways.

1. Consistent: The videos stick together well, so your story doesn’t jump around confusingly.
2. Seamless: It’s easy to add or change things without breaking the flow.
3. Cinematic: The videos look high-quality — like something you’d see on TV or in theaters.

If you want to play with it, it’s available to Google Ultra subscribers through the Gemini app and Google Labs. 

Ok, but what can it do?

Redefining “Real”

Don’t skip this next part. It’s what gave me the idea for the post.

To set the stage, imagine you’re watching a video of a person talking. Typically, you think, “This is real — someone actually stood in front of a camera and spoke.” But now computers can make a video that looks and sounds so real, you can’t tell it’s fake.

 

Anyway, this week, I saw a cool video on social media. At first, I thought it was cool simply because of the idea it expressed. But the video gets even more interesting when you realize how it was created.

 

“Prompt Theory” is a mind-bending exploration of artificial intelligence brought to life. The premise examines what happens when AI-generated characters refuse to believe they’re not real. From stunning visuals to synced audio, this video showcases AI’s new immersive storytelling power while examining some pretty trippy concepts.

 

Hashem Al-Ghaili via X

I predict you will see a massive influx of AI-generated content flooding social media using tools like this. 

Meanwhile, digital “people” with likenesses and internal objectives are increasingly going to become persistent and gain the ability to influence our world. This is inevitable. Yet, it’s still a little disorienting to think about.

 

As digital agents gain persistence and purpose, we face profound questions about reality, ethics, and human creativity.

 

And that is only the beginning!

 

Perhaps we are living in a simulation?

Mad About March Madness

March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days. As you can guess, almost no one has a perfect bracket anymore. McNeese beat Clemson, Drake beat Mizzou, and Arkansas handed Kansas its first first-round loss since 2006. On Friday, the NCAA said that of the over 34 million brackets submitted at the start of March Madness, approximately 1,600 remained perfect. That's less than .1% after the first day. The first game of the tournament - Creighton vs. Louisville - busted over half of the brackets. 

Before 24/7 sports channels, people watched the weekly show "The Wide World of Sports."  Its opening theme promised "The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!" and "The human drama of athletic competition." That defines March Madness.

The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things). For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (that is 1 in 9.223 quintillion if that was too many zeros count). If you want better odds, then you can have a 1 in 2.4 trillion chance based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account ranks). It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket. Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.

via Duke University

Here's some more crazy March Madness Stats: 

• Companies expect $4 Billion of corporate losses due to employees tracking games
• The highest-paid NCAA coach, Kansas's Bill Self, makes a salary of $8.8 Million
• In 2018, it was estimated that March Madness generated $10 Billion in gambling (twice as much as the Super Bowl)

 

Feeding the Madness

"Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." - Phil Jackson

In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world. None of them had the same success even a year later.

Finding an edge is hard - Maintaining an edge is even harder.

That's not to say there aren't edges to be found. 

Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models. You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision. That makes you feel powerful. But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray. 

The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading. As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't. We want the bragging rights for the sleeper pick that went deeper than most expected, our alma mater winning, and for the big upset we predicted. 

You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.

In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses. 

The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased. Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer. We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction. 

Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint. People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities. It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found. 

In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.

Can machine learning also help in March Madness?

“The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting - that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” - Tom Griffiths

The data is there. Over 100,000 NCAA regular-season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season. There are plenty of questions to be asked about that data that may add an extra edge. 

That said, people have tried before with mediocre success. It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports—hustle, the crowd, momentum—and it's hard to overcome the odds of 1 in 9.2 quintillion. 

Two lessons can be learned from this:

1. People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
2. Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems.

Something to think about.

 

Feeding the Madness

"Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." - Phil Jackson

In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world. None of them had the same success even a year later.

Finding an edge is hard - Maintaining an edge is even harder.

That's not to say there aren't edges to be found. 

Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models. You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision. That makes you feel powerful. But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray. 

The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading. As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't. We want the bragging rights for the sleeper pick that went deeper than most expected, our alma mater winning, and for the big upset we predicted. 

You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.

In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses. 

The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased. Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer. We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction. 

Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint. People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities. It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found. 

In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.

Can machine learning also help in March Madness?

“The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting - that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” - Tom Griffiths

The data is there. Over 100,000 NCAA regular-season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season. There are plenty of questions to be asked about that data that may add an extra edge. 

That said, people have tried before with mediocre success. It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports—hustle, the crowd, momentum—and it's hard to overcome the odds of 1 in 9.2 quintillion. 

Two lessons can be learned from this:

1. People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
2. Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems.

Something to think about.

Business Lessons from the NFL

Today was Super Bowl Sunday 2025. As a fan, I found myself rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles today. But at times, I was rooting for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out of respect for the talent and the incredible record they’ve compiled.

Meanwhile, it also made me think about my home team, the Dallas Cowboys, and how long it’s been since we’ve had any real post-season success. 

Obviously, the Jones family has done many things right. According to Forbes, for the ninth straight year, the Dallas Cowboys are the world’s most valuable sports team, worth an estimated $10.1 billion — the first to cross the 11-figure threshold and $1.3 billion beyond their closest competition.

They’ve mastered winning in the business sense, even when they struggle on the field.

Jerry Jones does a lot right in building his “Disney Ride.” However, this post will focus more on what the coaches and players do to win. 

 

Business Lessons From the NFL

 

I’m regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.

Football is something I used to love to play. And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.

Some lessons relate to teamwork, while others relate to coaching or management.

Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... but I still learn from watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star. 

Think about it ...  even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart listing the first, second, and third choices to fill specific roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in ways that most businesses don’t.

The picture below is of my brother’s high school team way back in 1989. While lots have changed since then, much of what we will discuss in this post remains timeless.

 

 

Losing to an 8th Grade Team

The scary truth is that most businesses are less prepared for their challenges than an 8th-grade football team. That might sound disrespectful – but if you think about it ... it’s pretty accurate. Here is a short video highlighting what many businesses could learn from observing how organized sports teams operate, particularly in setting goals and effectively preparing for challenges.

via YouTube.

If you are skimming, here is a quick summary of the key points in the video.

Organization and Preparation

• Structure: Football teams have a clear hierarchy, including a head coach, assistant coaches, and trainers.
• Practice: Teams engage in regular practice sessions to prepare for games, emphasizing the importance of training.
• Game Plan: They develop strategies and a game plan before facing opponents, including watching game films to understand their competition.

Dynamic Strategy

• Adaptability: Teams adjust their strategies based on the game’s flow, recognizing whether they are on offense or defense.
• Audibles: Just as a football team may call an audible when faced with unexpected defensive setups, businesses should adapt their strategies in real time.

Learning From Experience

• Post-Game Analysis: Coaches review game films to identify what worked and what didn’t, learning from past experiences to improve future performance.
• Continuous Improvement: Ongoing training is crucial in businesses, similar to how football players receive coaching during practice to enhance their skills.

Importance of Coaching

• Role of Coaches: Coaching is crucial for developing talent and focusing on achieving defined goals.
• Encouragement of Growth: Active coaching leads to better outcomes and overall improvement.

 

A Deeper Look Into the Lessons

There is immense value in the structured coaching and preparation that sports teams exemplify. Here are some thoughts to help businesses adopt similar principles that foster teamwork, adaptability, and continuous improvement.

Vince Lombardi once famously started training camp by announcing, “Gentlemen, this is a football.” He stressed the hidden power of mastering the fundamentals. Beyond that, he believed that how you do something is how you tend to do everything ... which led to his famous  quote, “Football is not just a game, but a way of life.”

So, let’s start at the beginning.

Football teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week’s opponent, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.   

The team thinks of itself as a team. They expect to practice. And they get coached.

In addition, there is a playbook for both offense and defense. And they watch game films to review what went right ... and what they can learn and use later.

Contrast that with many businesses. Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together. 

The amount of thought and preparation that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business. 

What about when you get to the highest level? If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a typical business, what about the businesses that are killing it? That would be similar to an NFL team. 

Let’s look at the Cowboys. 

 

Practice Makes Perfect

How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right. 

Each time I’ve watched a practice session, I’ve come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.

During practice, there’s a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, each with a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There’s a rhythm, even to the breaks.

Every minute is scripted. There’s a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.

They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter periods than you’d guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a player’s attention span. They move from drill to drill, working not just on plays but also on skill sets (where are you looking, which foot you plant, how to best use your hands, etc.).

They use advanced technology to get an edge (including player geolocation monitoring, biometric tracking, medical recovery devices, robotic tackling dummies, and virtual reality headsets). 

They don’t just film games; they film the practices ... and each player’s individual drills. Coaches and players get a personalized cut on their tablets when they leave. It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement. Everything has the potential to be a lesson. 

 

Beyond The Snap

The focus is not just on the players and the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch videos of their opponent to understand tendencies and mentally prepare for what will happen.

During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been expected, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems. 

After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.

Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance and look to others for guidance. 

Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.

Challenge accepted.

And, just for fun, here’s a video of me doing a cartwheel after a Dallas Cowboys win.

 

via YouTube.

Sports make you do funny things.

Whether you are watching or playing – Enjoy the game!

Getting Educated Before You Vote!

Early voting has started, and if all goes to plan, we’ll know who will be the President on Tuesday, November 5th. Realistically, it’s more likely that you’ll know who you think the President is ... but the country may still be officially undecided.

It has gotten more challenging to exercise truly educated decision-making through the fog of fake news and the growing echo chambers of noise surrounding the candidates (and their policies).

The reality is that most of our news sources are tinted by the lens of their ideology - which is okay. That means they’re appealing to their targeted audience. 

That being said, it may also be worth looking at the same news story from a comparative news source from the other spectrum - or even better, a primary source when it comes to science/economics. I found two tools that help me do this kind of comparison easily – Ground News and Particle.

Ground News is a news aggregation platform that makes it easy to compare news sources, read between the lines of media bias, and break free from algorithms. Key features and benefits include:

• Source comparison: Allows users to see how different news outlets cover the same story, grouped by political leaning (left, center, right)
• Bias distribution: Shows the breakdown of political orientation for news sources covering each story
• AI-generated summaries: Provides summaries of coverage from different political perspectives
• Blindspot feature: Helps users identify stories not widely covered by their preferred sources
• Ownership information: Shows the ownership/financial interests behind news outlets.

Particle is a news reader app that delivers AI-powered news summaries to help you understand more, faster. It was created by an ex-Twitter alumni. The Particle app lets you browse a personalized list of stories to get you up-to-speed at a glance ... or go infinitely deeper to understand various perspectives, broader context, and how a story has unfolded over time. They’re still in private beta. You can sign up for the waitlist here.

Here’s a chart that shows where news sources rank. You can click the image for an interactive version with more details. And, if you’re curious about their methods, click here. 

via Ad Fontes Media

On top of reading various news sources, there are a couple of other tools I like: 

• FiveThirtyEight - Uses graphics to tell visual stories on valid statistics. Named after the number of electoral votes. Also has a visual presidential forecast. 
• RealClearPolitics - Aggregates news from various sources, as well as writing their own opinion pieces. Also has a good visual on the current state of the presidential, senate, and house races. 
• Brittanica ProCon - Tracks the stated positions of politicians on various issues. It can be sorted by candidate and by issue. It also has a quiz you can take to assess which candidate you actually resonate with. 
• Politifact & FactCheck - Both sites fact-check presidential statements, party statements, and more. We know politicians often lie by omission or focus only on the specific stats that are relevant to their point. Fact-checking helps you gain a more holistic picture. 

You are probably sick and tired of all the noise surrounding the election. However, our democratic system thrives on the intricate system of checks and balances powered by information sharing and continuous debate. This process compels the government to remain responsive and accountable to the people. 

Remember, choosing not to vote is still a choice ... and getting out to vote is the only way to make sure that your voice is heard - whether or not you believe in the health of America's democracy. 

 

The Law Of Diminishing Returns

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ... it is called the law of diminishing returns.

 

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

And of course ... Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

The Average NFL Player ...

When I woke up this morning, I saw that Dak Prescott, the star quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, signed a new contract, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history. His new four-year, $240 million deal makes him the league’s first $60 million per year player. 

If you are curious, here is a list of the highest-paid NFL players in 2024.

Each of the 32 teams has an active roster of 53 players. That is 1,696 active roster players. Add the practice squad and account for injuries, and in a typical season, you end up with about 2,100 players per season.

Now that the NFL Football season is officially underway, I thought it would be interesting to look at each position’s composite player.

As you might expect, different sports have a different ratio of ethnicities, builds, and features. The same is true for different positions on a football team.  For example, you might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Asians in Badminton. You expect NBA players to be taller, swimmers to have longer arms, and football players to have more muscle. 

Here is a visualization that shows what happens when you average the top players’ faces in various positions.

  

osmutiar via Reddit

Composites are interesting.

While you may be thinking, “This player must be unstoppable,”... statistically, he’s average.

The “composite” NFL player would be the 848th-best player in the league. He’s not a starter, and he plays on an average team. 

We found the same thing with our trading bots. The ones that made it through most filters weren’t star performers. They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories). The survivors were generalists, not specialists.

In reality, you need both.

In an ideal world with no roster limits, you’d want the perfect lineup for each granular situation. You’d want to evaluate players on how they perform under pressure, on different downs, against other players, and with various schemes. 

On a related but slightly different note, I recently read a post called “Why Generalists Own the Future.” It says that, in the age of AI, it’s better to know a little about a lot than a lot about a little. But part of that rationale is that it is easy to find or create digital specialists to do the things people used to do.

That’s what technology lets you do with algorithms. You can have a library of systems that communicate with each other ... and you don’t even have to pay their salary (but you will need data scientists, researchers, machines, data, alternative data, electricity, disaster recovery, and a testing platform).

You won’t find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety. Generalists are great, but you also have to be able to respond to specific conditions.

How ‘Bout Them Cowboys!

An Antidote For Anxiety & Scary Times

People seem rattled right now, don’t they?

Wallets have been tight, and fears of a recession have run rampant.

Even though markets and the economy are not the same thing, many voters believe they are. Consequently, in an election year, I suspect the government will push every button and pull every lever to boost the market leading into November.

Speaking of the markets, they have been pretty volatile the last few weeks. They have posted some of their worst days since COVID-19 but some of the best, too.

We find ourselves in a particularly partisan election year, with lots of uncertainty about who is running, what they stand for, and whether they can make a difference – or even do the job.

The situation feels worse because scary geopolitical events (that threaten World War 3) punctuate seemingly endless negative news cycles.

Now, on to the real point ... those things don’t matter and shouldn’t steal your focus. Why? Because that’s the playing field we all have to navigate.

There will be winners and losers. The key distinction lies in whether you choose to focus on opportunities or risk. 

So, I thought this would be an excellent time to revisit how to cope with losses and manage your anxieties in “scary times.” 

The Anxiety Antidote

During scary times, many people suffer from “I should have ...”, or “if I would have ...”, or “if I could have ...” thoughts.

The problem is that thoughts like those create more stress and distraction. 

I’m reminded of a quote.

"When the trough gets smaller ... the pigs get meaner." - Dan Sullivan

 

 

Negative focus highlights loss, difficulties, past events, missing things, and what you don’t want.

Think of them as an unhealthy reflex that wastes energy, confidence, and time.

All We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself  

I often talk about market psychology and human nature. The reason is that markets reflect the collective fear and greed of their participants... people tend to get paralyzed during scary times like these.

But it’s not the economy that makes people feel paralyzed. People feel paralyzed because of their reactions and their beliefs about the economy. Your perception becomes your reality. 

A little examination reveals that most fear is based on a “general” trigger rather than a “specific” trigger. In other words, people are afraid of all the things that could happen and are paralyzed by the sheer scope of possibilities. These things don’t even have to be probabilities to scare them.

You gain a competitive advantage as soon as you recognize that it’s not logical. Why? Because as soon as you distinguish that fear as not necessarily true, you can refocus your insights and energy on moving forward. You can act instead of react. You make better decisions when you come from a place of calm instead of fear... so create that calm. 

Even a tough environment like this presents you with opportunities if you watch for them ... or even better ... if you create them. 

The Scary Times Success Manual

The goal is to move forward and feel better.

Strategic Coach offers ten strategies for transforming negativity and unpredictability into opportunities for growth, progress, and achievement. They call it the “Scary Times Success Manual,” and what follows are some excerpts:

Forget about your difficulties, focus on your progress.

Because of some changes, things may not be as easy as they once were. New difficulties can either defeat you or reveal new strengths. Your body’s muscles always get stronger from working against resistance. The same is true for the “muscles” in your mind, spirit, and character. Treat this period of challenge as a time when you can make your greatest progress as a human being.

Forget about events, focus on your responses.

When things are going well, many people think they are in control of events. That’s why they feel so defeated and depressed when things turn bad. They think they’ve lost some fundamental ability. The most consistently successful people in the world know they can’t control events - but continually work toward greater control over their creative responses to events. Any period when things are uncertain is an excellent time to focus all of your attention and energy on being creatively responsive to all the unpredictable events that lie ahead.

Forget about what’s missing, focus on what’s available.

When things change for the worse, many desirable resources are inevitably missing - including information, knowledge, tools, systems, personnel, and capabilities. These deficiencies can paralyze many people, who believe they can’t make decisions and take action. A strategic response is to take advantage of every resource that is immediately available to achieve as many small results and make as much daily progress as possible. Work with every resource and opportunity, and your confidence will continually grow.

Forget about your complaints, focus on your gratitude.

When times get tough, everyone must make a fundamental decision: complain or be grateful. In an environment where negative sentiment is rampant, the consequences of this decision are much greater. Complaining only attracts negative thoughts and people. Gratitude, on the other hand, creates the opportunity for the best thinking, actions, and results to emerge. Focus on everything you are grateful for, communicate this, and open yourself to the best possible consequences.

 Click here to download the full PDF version.

Final Thoughts

We can pontificate all day long on the short-term causes of the rises and falls of markets, but I don’t think it does much good. I let the algorithms worry about those. It’s the larger trends we have to be personally aware of.

I sound like a broken record, but volatility is the new normal.

• Markets exist to trade, and if there’s no “excitement” on either side, trades don’t happen.
• Trades are getting faster, which means more information has to confuse both the buyer and the seller.
• You’re no longer competing solely against companies and traders like you. It’s like the cantina from Star Wars; you’ve got a bunch of different creatures (and bots) interacting and fighting with each other, trying to figure out how to make their way through the universe.

Pair that with all the fear and uncertainty, and you’ve got a recipe for increased volatility and noise. That means that the dynamic range of a move will be wider and happen in a shorter period of time than ever before. You’ll hear me echo this thought over the next few years as the ranges continue to expand and compress. Cycles that used to play out over weeks now take days or hours. The game is still the same; it just takes a slightly different set of skills to recognize where the risks and opportunities are. 

Today’s paradigm - both in life and trading - is about noise reduction. It’s about figuring out what moves the needle and focusing only on that.

The crucial distinction is between adding data and adding information. Adding more data does not equal adding more information. In fact, blindly adding data increases your chances of misinformation and spurious correlations.

My final comment is that there’s a difference between investing and trading, and while humans can invest, if you’re “personally” still trying to trade - you’re likely playing a losing game. If you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one. 

If you’re investing, I’ll advise you to act like a robot. If you removed human fear and greed from your decision-making - what would you do?

Keep calm and carry on.

Capturing Gold

The Olympics have officially concluded.  For many, it was the ultimate display of the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.  For others, it's a way to boast about their country's medal count.  If you're curious, here are the final medal standings.

One of the most captivating moments occurred in the men's 100-meter sprint.  It made me reflect on how years of preparation can come down to a few thousandths of a second determining the difference between Gold, Silver, and Bronze — or virtual irrelevance.

Last week, Noah Lyles broke a 20-year U.S. drought in the men's 100m final, winning gold with a 9.784 time.

Lyles came into the race ranked No. 1 in the world, but he had to run his fastest time ever to win the Olympic gold medal, and he did so by the slimmest of margins — 0.005 seconds.

In that race, Lyles achieved an average speed of 25.7 mph, and his max speed hit 27.84 mph.

Surprisingly, Lyles didn't lead the race until the final and most important moment.  Many thought that Jamaica's Kishane Thompson had the gold ... but advanced technology showed that Lyles surged ahead in the final stretch, edging Thompson out by a split second to claim victory.  Here is the photo finish.

 

via ESPN

It took over half a minute (much longer than the race itself) for the judges to announce the winner - it was that close. 

As a tech nerd, what I found most interesting about the win was the camera used to certify the win. 

Omega, which has been the official Olympics timekeeper for decades, released a new camera that shoots 40,000 frames per second, aimed directly at the finish line.

It reminded me of the facial recognition technology NFL teams like the Dallas Cowboys use to track - theoretically - every person who steps into a stadium.  The cameras are so good that when a crime is committed, they can completely track the perpetrator as they travel throughout the stadium.  The Cowboys' security office boasts that their camera system surpasses even the ones used by Las Vegas casinos to catch cheaters at the gaming tables.  However, it seems like Omega has taken things to a whole new level at the Olympics with its advanced camera technology this year.

Many think the 200m race is Lyles' specialty.  His personal best of 19.31 seconds in the 200m is the American record, making him the third fastest in the event.

Unfortunately, Lyles couldn't grasp gold in the 200.  He got Bronze instead.  However, after the race, he revealed that he ran the race with COVID ... which might explain his drop in performance.  Still, it stands as a testament of will to me.

As a side note, while the International Olympic Committee does not pay athletes for winning at the Olympics, many countries do!

 

via Voronai

While the U.S. isn't near the top of the list - American athletes who get gold bring home $37,500.  A silver nets you $22,500, and a bronze nets you $15,000. 

Of course, these medals can also lead to other compensation and endorsements - but the payout table was still interesting.

The achievements of athletes like Noah Lyles create national pride and open doors to numerous opportunities and rewards.

Meanwhile, the integration of advanced technology in the Olympics highlights the importance of innovation in sports.  As we celebrate these victories, we also look forward to the future advancements that will continue to shape the world of athletics and the world itself.

The 2.9 Trillion Dollar Drop

Last Friday was the stock market’s worst day since COVID. 

The media says weak job reports and recessionary fears fueled it.  Geopolitics might have played a part, too.

Over 2.9 Trillion Dollars got wiped out. 

To visualize what happened, here is a market heatmap of the S&P 500 index stocks categorized by sectors and industries.  Size represents market cap.  There was very little green in a sea of red.

 

via FinViz

Last year, I asked if we would see a recession in 2024?  Here is an excerpt from that post:

 

I want to remind people that the U.S. is resilient, and it seems like public sentiment is moving in a positive direction. 

That said, 84% of CEOs and 69% of consumers think we're headed toward a recession. Meanwhile, the Fed is positive we won't ... and banks are almost positive we won't. 

It seems like they know something we don't ... or maybe vice versa. 

To lend some credence to the bullish sentiment, consumer spending is still high despite inflation and interest rates. In addition, Retailers are still posting solid earnings.

Unfortunately, we're increasingly seeing consumers resort to borrowing (including short-term lending options) to pay for goods. Household debt has hit a record high of $17 trillion in March.

— Are We Going To See A Recession In 2024?, October 2023

Yes, last week was potentially alarming.  Even the ordinarily resilient tech giants took a hit. 

With the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% in July, the three-month moving average is at least 0.5 percentage points above the minimum of the previous 12 months’ averages.  This triggers the Sahm rule, which supposedly signals a recession.  According to the rule, reaching the 0.5% threshold indicates a recession.  When the jobless rate rises quickly, it suggests the economy is slumping.

But, even the inventor of the rule, Claudia Sahm, says the doomsday narrative may be overblown. 

I’m not here to tell you that everything is sunshine and roses, but I am here to remind you that no indicator exists in a vacuum.  While the negative performance is real, household income is still growing, and consumer spending and business investment remain resilient.

Not to mention that with graduation, there’s a massive increase in the workforce, which also impacts the numbers. 

Recessions can build slowly - but come quickly - but as they build, there is time to react ... and even better - there is time to not ‘react’ but ‘respond’. 

AI will likely impact the workforce, business, and eventually ... the economy. 

I’ve learned that the market often feels random because you can’t predict events like global pandemics, threats, assassinations, or cybersecurity outages.

Over time, I’ve focussed less on guessing what will happen and more on responding faster and better to what happens.

With that said, I do have an opinion here.  It’s an election year, and I suspect the government will push every button and pull every lever to boost the market leading into November.  Even though markets and the economy are not the same thing, many voters believe they are.  So, I would say this correction is perfectly timed ... and I anticipate a steady ramp-up so that people feel as good as possible about the economy when they vote.

What do you think is going to happen?