Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 10th, 2019

Here's a quick reminder about Veterans Day.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Futurists are (Almost) Always Wrong. (ZDNet)
• AI Rising: How Companies, Police and the Public are Already Grappling with Artificial Intelligence. (GeekWire)
• Macallan Bottle Sells for $1.9 Million, Breaks Whisky World Record Again. (Forbes)
• Suzy Batiz's Empire of Odor. (NewYorker)
• The 35 Best CEOs in the World, According to Harvard Business Review. (BusinessInsider)

 

Trading Links:

• Lilium is One Step Closer to Making Its Flying Car a Reality. (FastCompany)
• Gartner: Corporate Blockchain Won't Take off for Another Decade. (News)
• Singapore is the World's Most Competitive Economy. What Can Others Learn? (WEForum)
• The Countries with the Most Millionaires. (Statista)
• The Unicorn Bubble is Bursting. (SeekingAlpha)

 

 

90th Anniversary of Black Thursday

This past Thursday was the 90th anniversary of Black Thursday, a day when sellers on Wall Street panicked and closed approximately 13 million shares on the NYSE ... causing 5 billion in immediate losses and spurring the Great Depression, easily the worst stock market crash in US history. 

 

With 90 years of education, technology and progress under our belts, we can look back at their mistakes assuming that it could never happen again – but could it? 

The years prior to 1929 were filled with post-WW1 optimism and massive speculation. The combined net profits of 536 manufacturing and trading companies in the first six months of 1929 showed an increase of 36.6% over 1928, itself a record half-year. Rural Americans flocked to cities to take part in the excess of the Roaring Twenties. Stock prices were rising and there was massive economic growth. Like many 20 years olds, the '20s was a period where Americans felt invincible, right up until October 24th of 1929. We almost made it out of the decade.  

On the day the 1929 Crash started, 11% of the Dow's value was lost by the opening bell. There was so much trading that the ticker tape reports were backed up. Traders had no idea of the true value of the stocks. Panic.  Suddenly, 5 billion dollars was gone, along with optimism and trust in the system. By Black Tuesday, several stocks sat without buyers and the Dow drops another 12%.  Collective confidence shattered.  Psychological traumas compounded until there was widespread economic PTSD.  Uncertainty spread like wildfire. Owners of businesses were unsure if they could get credit, workers were uncertain of job prospects or whether they'd get paid. As a result, consumption dropped, businesses failed, banks followed, and shortly thereafter, so did the Great Depression. 

From the peak of the Dow (September 3, 1929) to the bottom of the Great Depression (July 8, 1932) the Dow lost 90% of its value. 

 

Human Nature is Human Nature

 

We've since instituted many measures to protect businesses, banks, and consumers, including measures to suspend trading in periods of rapid decline (like the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934). As well, we have a better understanding and tracking of economic barometers like car sales, real estate, etc. 

The reality is that in various scales and timeframes human traders undergo the same issues time and time again. It only becomes a talking point when it becomes painful enough. 

It shouldn't take mass unemployment and economic contraction for us to understand the dangers of speculation, the dangers of human fear, greed, and discretion, and the dangers of poor economic theory. 

Human fear and greed will likely play less of a role in markets going forward.  Increasingly more of trading volume is algorithmic.  And increasingly more of the decisions are made with AI using more data and shorter time frames.  As a result, while I expect increased volatility, I also expect increased opportunity.

Keep in mind that there is a difference between guessing and knowing ... and knowing is more profitable.  The corollary is: if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one. 

 

 

Here's to a great last few weeks of 2019!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 27th, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Jeff Bezos: This is the 'Smartest Thing We Ever Did' At Amazon. (CNBC)
• The Next Big Thing in AI/ML Is. (DataScienceCentral)
• The Pope's First Wearable is a $110 Rosary that Tracks Your Prayers. (FastCompany)
• Science Says You Only Need to Work out for 13 Minutes to Make a Difference. (Parents)
• The 'Blob': Paris Zoo Unveils Unusual Organism Which Can Heal Itself and Has 720 Sexes. (CNN)

 

Trading Links:

• Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff: Capitalism as We Know It as Dead. (TheVerge)
• Google Claims a Quantum Breakthrough that Could Change Computing. (New York Times)
• Tesla Turns a Profit and Builds a Chinese Factory Very Fast. (Wired)
• There Are Now 11 Blockchain Unicorns in the World, with over $1B Valuation, Including Binance, Ripple, and Coinbase. (TheBlockCrypto)
• SoftBank Says It Has Now Invested $18.5 Billion in WeWork, More Than the GDP' of Bolivia, Which Has 11.5 Million People. (TechCrunch)

Gartner's 2019 Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies

Technology is a massive differentiator in today's competitive landscape. 

Sorting through predictions of which new technologies are going to impact the world and which are going to fizzle out can be an overwhelming task. I look forward to Gartner's report each year as a benchmark to compare reality against. 

Last year, Gartner reported Deep Learning and Biochips were at the top of the hype cycle - in the "peak of inflated expectations." While I'm excited about both industries, there was certainly more buzz than actual improvement in those spaces last year. Excitement almost always exceeds realistic expectations when technologies gain mainstream appeal. 

What's a "Hype Cycle"?

As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily life. 

Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.

Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

That being said - it's worth acknowledging that the hype cycle can't predict which technologies will survive the trough of disillusionment and which ones will fade into obscurity. 

What's exciting this year?

It's worth noting that in this edition of the hype cycle, Gartner shifted towards introducing new technologies at the expense of technologies that would normally persist through multiple iterations of the cycle; 21 new technologies were added to the list. For comparison, here's my article from last year, and here's my article from 2015. Click on the chart below to see a larger version of this year's Hype Cycle.

via Gartner

This year's ~30 key technologies were selected from over 2000 technologies and bucketed into 5 major trends:

• Sensing and Mobility represents technologies that are gaining more detailed awareness of the world around them like 3D sensing cameras, the next iteration of autonomous driving, and drones. Improvements in sensor technology and their communication through the IoT is leading to more data and more insight. 
• Augmented Human builds on the "Do It Yourself Biohacking" trend from last year. It represents technologies that improve both the cognitive and physical abilities of humanity - technologies like biochips, augmented intelligence and robotic skin. The future is bringing implants to extend humans past their perceived limits and increase our understanding of our bodies; biochips with the potential to detect diseases, synthetic muscles, and neural implants. Many of my friends believe this realm will elongate human lifespans. 
• Postclassical Compute and Comms represents new architectures of classical computing technologies like 5G or nanotech - it results in faster CPUs, denser memory and increased throughput. Innovation is commonly thought of as new technologies, but better versions of existing technologies can provide just as much value - and disrupt industries in a very similar way. 
• Digital Ecosystems are platforms that connect various types of "actors." They create seamless communication between companies, people and APIs. This enables more efficient decentralized organizations (and decentralized autonomous organizations) and allows constant adoption of new evolutions in technology. Examples of this technology are the decentralized web, synthetic data, and decentralized autonomous organizations. 
• My wheelhouse, Advanced AI and Analytics is an acknowledgment of new classes of algorithms and data science that are leading to new capabilities, deeper insights, and adaptive AI. The future of this space involves more accurate predictions and recommendations on smaller data sets. More signal. Less noise.  

 

Looking past the overarching trends of this year, it's also fun to look at what technologies are just starting their hype cycle. 

• Artificial Tissue (Biotech) could be used to repair or replace portions of, or whole, tissues(cartilage, skin, muscle, etc.)
• Flying Autonomous Vehicles can be used as taxis, but also as transports for other things such as medical supplies, food delivery, etc. Amazon and Uber are likely excited about this development - and expect it in the next couple of years. 
• Decentralized Web builds on the same arguments blockchain creates against normal currencies. Because the mainstream centralized web is dominated by massive and corporate-controlled platforms like Facebook and Google, the decentralized web movement strives to enable free speech and increased access to those users whose access to the internet is strictly regulated. 
• Transfer Learning refers to the ability of an AI to solve one problem and apply that "lesson" to a different but tangential problem. When AI becomes able to generalize knowledge more abstractly, you will see a massive spike in utilization. 
• Augmented Intelligence complements humanity instead of replacing them with robots. To be clear - Augmented intelligence is a subset of AI, but a different perspective/approach to its adoption. 

AI has been around since the '60s, but technological advancement and increased data mean we are now in an AI spring after decades of stagnation. 

Many of these technologies have been hyped for years - but the hype cycle is different than the adoption cycle. We often overestimate a year and underestimate 10. 

Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 20th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Six Lessons We Can Learn from Geniuses. (BBC)
• Breaking down the 10 Need-to-know Emerging Technologies. (ZDNet)
• Understanding Heart Zone Training: All You Need to Know. (BTW)
• How Spotify's Algorithm Knows Exactly What You Want to Listen To. (OneZero)
• A.I. Musicians are a Growing Trend. What Does that Mean for the Music Industry? (DigitalTrends)

 

Trading Links:

• Jeff Bezos's Master Plan. (The Atlantic)
• "Demystifying Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Corporation". (Forbes)
• Three Big Things: the Most Important Forces Shaping the World.(CollaborativeFund)
• Goldman Sachs: the Economic Run is Not over and the US 'Is Not Close to Recession'. (CNBC)
• Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller Forewarned Investors about the Dot-com and Housing Bubbles. Now He Tells Us Which Irrational Market Behaviors Have Him Most Worried. (BusinessInsider)

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 13th, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• We May Be Closing in on the Discovery of Alien Life. are We Prepared? (NBCNews)
• An Ant Colony Has Memories Its Individual Members Don't Have. (TheNextWeb)
• Meat is Unhealthy, Meat is Okay: Why Science Keeps Overturning What We Thought We Knew. (Vox)
• Entries in the 2020 Sony World Photography Awards. (The Atlantic)
• Google Has Suspended Its Controversial Field Research' that Allegedly Scanned Homeless People. (TheVerge)

 

Trading Links:

• This Chart Ranks Everyone (Even You) by Their Wealth, and It's a Snapshot of Inequality. (CNBC)
• The Downside to Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade Eliminating Trading Fees. (MarketWatch)
• Job Losses in 2019 Highest in 4 Years as Manufacturing and Auto Industries Falter . (24/7 Wall St)
• Trump Administration Slaps 25% Tariff on Single Malt Scotch Whisky Imports. (Forbes)
• Former Nasdaq Boss Robert Greifeld Says We'll Remember WeWork as When the 'Unicorn' Bubble Burst. (CNBC)

 

 

Trade Shows & The Evolution Of Trading

I recently participated on several panel discussions about AI and trading. This picture was taken at The Trading Show in New York.

I speak at a number of events every year because I enjoy meeting people pushing the envelope and shaking things up.  It is also a great opportunity to feel the pulse of the industry (by paying attention to the titles of the sessions, the types of sponsors and vendors attracted, and of course, the makeup of the audiences).

Big changes are coming!  Technical innovations and data science insights continue to impress, but the use of alternative data and advanced AI is at a tipping point.  I describe these shifts in the book I’m finishing up, called “Next On Wall Street – Understanding AI’s Inevitable Impact on Trading”.  Let me know if you want to know more about the book.

In the 90s, when I’d go to conferences, I would pay attention to speakers.  Now, when I go to conferences, I'm paying attention to the audience.   The players are changing so fast, the game itself is changing.

 

 

There have been various generations of trading built on different innovations. When computerized data became available, simply understanding how to download and use it generated Alpha. The same could be said for each later evolution: the adoption of complex algorithms, access to massive amounts of clean data, and the adoption of AI strategies.

Each time a new shift happens, traders pivot or fail. The scale of innovation increases, but the pattern remains.

At this most recent conference, I was excited to see people recognizing the pivot toward AI, Big Data and high-speed computing.

Change happens slowly, and then all at once, and we’re getting close to that inflection point.

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 6th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

 

• NASA Chief Scientist Says 'We're Close' to Making Announcements about Life on Mars. (FoxNews)
• Which Drink is Best for Hydration? Hint: It Isn't Water. (CNN)
• Why Does Time Speed up When You Get Older? (Sciencefocus)
• Tinder Wants Users to Find Love in the Apocalypse. (Wired)
• If the Louvre Was on Fire, Should We Rescue the Art First or the People? (3QD)

 

Trading Links:

• Which Billionaire Will Be the World's First Trillionaire?(Entrepreneur)
• The US's Quantum Leap to Dominate AI. (FoxBusiness)
• The Future of Cryptocurrencies. (Worldview)
• 2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast. (Stratfor)
• What a Trump Impeachment Battle Means for Financial Markets. (NYT)

Will A Robot Take Your Job? The War on Automation

Dread of a robot-dominated future is mounting. Is there basis for it?

Michael Osborne and Carl Frey, from Oxford University, calculated how susceptible various jobs are to automation. They based their results on nine key skills:

• social perceptiveness
• negotiation
• persuasion
• assisting and caring for others
• originality
• fine arts
• finger dexterity
• manual dexterity
• and the need to work in a cramped area

via Michael Osborne & Carl Frey (Click For A Comprehensive Infographic)

There are various statistics about the rate of change for robots taking jobs. Many expect that ~50% of current jobs will be automated by 2035.  Turns out, that statistic is from Michael and Carl, and the numbers were 47% by 2034¹. 

The quote actually refers to the risk of them being automated. That 47% number doesn't take into account the cost, regulatory, political, or social pressures - so it's unlikely the full 47% will be realized. 

via The Economist

Many use that quote as a fear-monger toward future joblessness and an increasing lack of middle-class mobility, but Mr. Frey isn't a proponent of that belief and neither am I. 

Industrialization created short-term strife but vastly increased the economic pie over the long-term. It's likely that future automation will have similar effects if managed correctly. It's possible to truncate the pain if we learn from previous iterations of this cycle.  The fact that we're so far along technologically in comparison to previous revolutions means we're in a better position to proactively handle the transitory period. 

We can't fail to manage the short-term consequences of the new tech because it will lead to unrest. If unrest and opposition to automation persist - it's likely the situation will be exacerbated. It's only by embracing innovation that we can make sure automation is a boon to the middle-class and not the bane of their existence. 

Throughout history, technology has always created more jobs than it has destroyed - and while currently, that isn't the case, it doesn't mean it won't be. I often compare the AI revolution to the introduction of electricity. Electricity was a massive disruptor, and put many people out of work,  but a fantastic benefit to society. 

Doom and gloom sell. It's much easier to convince people something's going to be painful than amazing because we're creatures of habit and our monkey brains fear pain much more than they enjoy pleasure. 

Our attitudes and actions play a pivotal role in how the world impacts us. Pragmatically, we have various institutions in place to make the transition as painless as possible - note that I wouldn't say painless, but as painless as possible. 

Onwards!

_________________

^[1] Frey, Carl & Osborne, Michael. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?

Country Comparisons: Harvard's Economic Dynamics Data-Viz

Harvard's Center for International Development put together a tool that I think is pretty cool. It's called the Atlas of Economic Complexity.  Its goal is to get you to think differently about the economic strategy, policy, and investment opportunities for individual countries. 

Each country's profile analyzes its economic dynamics and future growth prospects, including which industries are burgeoning. They made it look pretty as well.  If you're curious about specific questions, you can use their exploration function instead. 

via Atlas of Economic Complexity

Interesting stuff.  Play around. Compare. Enjoy!