The pandemic has affected many things beyond basic health. Increasingly, I see research showing meaningful increases in pornography consumption, suicide rates, and a host of other trends that are shaping our world today ... but, in the longer-term, it is also affecting the face of tomorrow.
Flexible Workplaces
In May, after only several months of lock-down, I was surprised how many businesses decided that they had no intention of ever requiring their employees to come back into the office.
As we close in on a year in the pandemic, I am surprised how easily we adapted to the new normal. Even with a vaccine in sight, I suspect many of the adaptations will remain.
Personally, I like going to the office. Most days, I still do ... even though a tiny fraction of our people are there.
With that said, I know that our business matured. We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable. We've gotten better at deciding what's a meeting (versus an e-mail or an online chat). People are working hours that are more comfortable for them, and we see meetings happen both earlier and later than they used to, before the quarantine.
As a macro trend, we also see a flight from urban centers.
via visualcapitalist
I keep hearing about people moving far from their work-places. Ultimately, they decided that remote work enables a new form of freedom for them – to live where they want, regardless of what they do (or who they do it for).
Over time, I'm curious how a remote workforce will impact the quality and the amount of work done.
Adding to my initial concerns, flexible workspaces cause (or exacerbate) other issues, including cybersecurity, digital collaboration, defining the new workday, and a host of other challenges.
Digital Explosion
I remember the early 2000s and the distress I felt watching how many time cycles my son "wasted" being on his phone (which to me, at that time, seemed like "all-the-time"). But, in retrospect, that was nothing.
Flash forward to 2019, and everything was even more "digital" and "smart." Refrigerators, exercise bikes, billboards, and more all had screens, and 2-year-olds were already digitally literate. "All-the-time" took on a whole new meaning.
Somehow, the pandemic still took our reliance on the digital world (or our augmented alternate reality) to the next level.
via Alaska DHSS
Kids are also getting less physical activity and human contact, and spending much more time online. Contributing to this is the reality that much of their academics have been forced online. Likewise, adults also are shifting more of their attention and activity cycles to the digital world.
Continued screen-time increases coincide with video game revenue spiking and Internet traffic increasing by more than 50% worldwide.
As the world opens up, I still expect digital reliance numbers to stay above pre-COVID benchmarks. People's reliance on digital to feed their need for information, entertainment, and companionship is growing.
Changing Business Landscape
Starting with consumers, we've seen a massive movement toward frictionless and touchless payment. Even physical stores are prioritizing getting in and out without having to deal with another human. In addition, there's a massive move toward delivery services for groceries and meals.
On top of the changes to normal retail services, reliance on online shopping has increased, while the time it takes for electronic purchases to your door has decreased. Combined, these factors will terraform commerce. Consequently, this year was likely an inflection point for e-commerce penetration ... and, from that perspective, life will never be the same again.
via visual capitalist
Despite the growth of online retail, many small businesses that couldn't move online are struggling, and many have already gone under.
Which leads to the next trend ...
Increasing Wealth Stratification
While small business owners and front line workers have been struggling, billionaires saw their wealth increase by over half a trillion dollars.
Part of this is due to government aid toward large companies, part of it is due to tax laws, and part of it is due to the digital rise mentioned in the previous section. The big tech companies were already thriving, and the pandemic created a positive inflection point.
Despite those gains, the pandemic hit millennials and small businesses hard.
via Morning Consult
The longer the economy is affected by COVID-19 measures, the larger the wealth inequality will grow, and the more people you can expect looking for government assistance. The strong will thrive while others will suffer increasingly from learned helplessness.
Obviously, the 2020 quarantine has created impacts in many other areas – including family stress, community isolation, political radicalization, etc. Moreover, these effects won't be isolated to this year - and we should expect many to impact our "new normal" for years to come.
Some people consider this a challenge. I think it's the playing field. It's going to be true for everyone. What you make it mean, and what you choose to do, it is up to you. Some will be like a cork, floating on the water, going where the tide takes it. Others will recognize the situation as an opportunity and thrive.
The impact has been global, but the choices you make are local ... and they are still your to make.
Here is to making 2021 our best year yet!
Onwards!
Where Do We Go From Here?
Yogi Berra once said, “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
I don’t normally post articles where I predict things. Nonetheless, I feel the need to comment on what is happening in America and what I suspect happens next.
My political beliefs are not really important here. But for context, I am somewhat fiscally conservative and somewhat socially liberal. It puts me pretty squarely in the middle.
As an entrepreneur and citizen, I feel compelled to find the "signal-in-the-noise" to understand and anticipate the game that’s being played, what the playing field looks like, and the best way forward.
For all the front stage calls for "unity & healing", behind the curtain, the actions of both sides aren't supporting the words they're saying.
When the Democrats first announced the second impeachment, I assumed it was designed to steal news cycles (a nice trick that Trump taught them) and time cycles to minimize potential damage till the inauguration. Meaning that any time they forced the Trump administration to spend discussing what was happening or defending themselves was time taken away from political gamesmanship and last-minute actions that the new administration would have to deal with later.
Meanwhile, perhaps the reason Mitch McConnell has been sending mixed signals about protecting Trump is to avoid angering a meaningful portion of his base – while preparing to create the space to launch his new post-Trump Republican leadership slate (and a powerful Trump hurts those plans).
Ultimately, however, I do not believe that either party really wants to pursue impeachment fully at this point. Consequently, I suspect that the Biden administration will slow down the impeachment (and morph it into other strategies and tactics). I can’t imagine that the new administration will want to give Donald Trump even more of a public forum to broadcast his messages to the whole world (considering what's happening with Big Tech removing his platform). It makes more sense to move on and shift focus.
Strategically, it seems more likely that they’ll go for a censure. With that, I suspect that they will attempt to strip post-presidency benefits and courtesies (including financial, access, and information). Further, it wouldn’t surprise me if they find a way to prohibit him from having any public lands or things (like airports) named after him. This would accomplish three things. First, Democrats would consider it a win and a signal to the world. Second, it would hit Trump where it hurts (in his ego and legacy). Third, it would also support the new Republican leadership's goals by minimizing the chance that Trump could limit McConnell's power or fracture the party further.
Consequently, the real attempts to prevent Trump (or his family) from running for president will be accomplished via felony charges out of places like New York, Georgia, or DC. Even though the motivations may be political, I don’t think it will be a political process. Kind of like what they did to Al Capone. That means that I expect both parties to help various prosecutors keep Trump busy, weaken him, and limit his future impact.
As for the markets, to some extent, what goes up must come down. The pendulum swung pretty far and was propped there for longer than most thought possible. Clearly, we are due for a correction.
Global economic weakness (and falling GDPs), along with the pandemic (and challenges with a vaccine rollout), will all contribute to short term volatility.
However, I think the Democrats will be far less committed than Trump was to propping markets up in the short term. They would prefer any reversion to the mean to happen quickly – so they can blame it on the prior administration.
With that said, the midterm elections are coming up quickly (and control of the Senate likely to be an even hotter topic). Consequently, I expect the Democrats to push hard to help the markets recover coming into the end of their first year.
Of course, all of these thoughts are speculation and may not come true.
I’d love to hear your thoughts.
We certainly live in interesting times.
Posted at 06:57 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
Reblog (0)