Last week, Microsoft won a contract to provide the U.S. army augmented reality ("AR") headsets. It's worth up to $21.9 billion over 10 years, and they'll be providing over 120,000 AR headsets. Porn has been the leader in VR/AR innovation, but it's unsurprising that war is also being used to drive innovation. Human nature is human nature.
Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality have been around for a long time, but there's been a massive boom in innovation and interest over the last 3-5 years. Not only are the technologies becoming more affordable, but the animation is becoming more realistic, headsets are becoming more portable and longer-lasting, and our physical and virtual realities are beginning to blend.
We're moving towards a world where technology envelops every aspect of our lives ... figuratively and literally. It's funny because I felt the same way in the late 90s as cell phones and the internet proliferated. It feels quaint in comparison to the ubiquity of technology today. Even our toasters are smart now.
The following (still fictional) video is thought-provoking. What happens when these new technologies are used to influence behavior, decision-making, and even your identity?
Keiichi Matsuda via Vimeo
Like many things, these technologies make possible awesome new capabilities (if used well) and horrific consequences (if abused or used in authoritarian ways).
Your doctor or nutritionist could help you make better choices for yourself. Your therapist or coach could help you perceive and respond differently to the challenges life presents you. Marketers could better influence your purchases. Employers could better monitor and measure your performance and productivity. And governments will not be far behind ... doing what they do. It all toes the line between beneficial and creepy.
Because of where we are in the adoption curve, it is becoming more common to discuss bioethics and AI ethics. Likewise, as we accelerate into an age of exponential technologies and mindsets, be prepared for increasing scrutiny of the promise versus the peril of various new technologies and capabilities.
We live in interesting times, and only getting more interesting as it goes!
A Quick Look At American Debt
Markets are not the economy, but it's still important to understand and follow economics.
One of the unfortunate "trends" of 2020 was the increase in debt at various levels. Now, debt can be a good thing ... it greases the international wheels and can be an important part of long-term financial plans for countries (in the same way you or I might use it.)
But too much of a good thing is a bad thing, and doing that math gets pretty complicated on the national level.
To help put it in perspective, I want to look at the U.S. debt on different scales.
First, you can look at this US Debt Clock for a staggering interactive visualization of the inflows and outflows in America. Click the image to watch it update in real-time. I encourage you to look at some of the components tracked. It made me think about our future differently.
The U.S. has a GDP of about $22 Trillion and our national debt is currently over $28 Trillion, but our net worth is still approximately $120 trillion.
For more perspective:
What about on the state level?
As a result of snowballing debt, President Biden's $1.9T economic stimulus package promised $350B in direct aid to states.
To help understand the image, Texas is actually a great case study. Texas's bubble is big because it has one of the highest total debt levels, but is green because its debt ratio is pretty good at 62.5%.
California has the highest total debt, but is very light pink, stating that its debt ratio isn't bad. Some states' liabilities outweigh their assets by a factor of 4x or 5x which is scary.
This is a helpful illustration of the delicate balance of taking on debt. It's okay to take on large amounts of debt if you have a reasonable belief that revenue outstrips interest. To contrast that, some of these states have unsustainable debt levels - and only survive because they're a part of a bigger whole - the U.S. - and have an extra safety net.
What about Consumer Debt?
Most of America's debt is Federal - but consumer debt accounts for a non-trivial portion as well. Here's a chart that shows the change in U.S. Household debt since 2003.
Federal Reserve Bank of NY via HowMuch
Student, Auto, and Home Owner loans have all increased substantially - with the cost of student loans raising over 500%. Almost every category of consumer debt has increased.
While our country has gotten richer, and the standard of living has increased, we also have more people living in large amounts of debt.
Things To Consider
These charts are startling. Debt is a powerful tool ... but comes with risk as well. The question is, are we as a country and individuals managing the risk appropriately?
It's hard to look at these charts and say that there isn't an issue. The hope is that the government stimulus packages will make a difference - but Band-Aids won't fix the root of the problem and can even lull people into a false sense of security.
What do you think the solution is?
Posted at 06:37 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
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