Capitalogix

The Average NFL Player (By Position)

Football season is officially underway!  In honor of that, here's a look at each position's composite "player" (as of 2019).

As you might expect, different sports have different ratios of ethnicities.  For example, you might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Asians in Badminton.

The same is true for various positions on a football team.  Offensive linemen are more likely to be white – while running backs are more likely to be black. 

Here is a visualization that shows what happens when you average the top players' faces in various positions.

osmutiar via Reddit

Composites are interesting.

While you may be thinking "this player must be unstoppable" ... statistically, he's average.

The "composite" NFL player would be the 848th best player in the league.  He's not a starter, and he plays on an average team.  You probably don't know his name if you don't root for his team. 

We found the same thing with our trading bots.  The ones that made it through most filters weren't star performers.  They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories).  Meaning, the survivors were generalists – not specialists.

In an ideal world, with no roster limits, you'd want the perfect lineup for each granular situation.  You'd want to evaluate players on how they perform under pressure, on different downs, against other players, and with different schemes. 

That's what technology lets you do with algorithms.  You can have a library of systems that communicate with each other ... and you don't even have to pay their salary (but you will need data scientists, researchers, machines, data, alternative data, electricity, disaster recovery, and a testing platform).

You won't find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety.  Generalists are great, but you also have to be able to respond to specific conditions.

Onwards.

The New Era of Energy

A couple of weeks ago, I talked about oil production.  This week, I want to look at the current energy landscape. 

 

View the full infographic at visualcapitalist

Over the past several decades, there has been a massive shift in how we produce and consume energy.  This has been driven by the tech boom - as well as by climate awareness.

The practical realities of widespread tech adoption directly impact energy consumption.  For example, there are now over 7 billion people with smartphones.  As the population (and the number of gadgets and tech we use) grows, logically, so does our energy consumption.

Luckily, we're also getting better at powering them. 

On a different front, oil is still a meaningful and vital part of the energy ecosystem … but, now, it's being supplemented by multiple renewables. 

View the full infographic at visualcapitalist 

Over the last decade, investment in green technologies has helped the cost of renewable energies drop precipitously. 

That spurred a different set of products and use cases.  For example, we've seen the number of electric cars grow exponentially.  In 2011, there were approximately 70,000 EV units in the world.  Now there are around 16.5 million. 

This isn't a commentary on the environmental benefit of renewables; it is an observation about the direction energy is heading. 

And, just like with AI, despite being a space that's existed for a long time, it is still in the "early adoption" phase. 

Based on estimations, the IEA projects an 8x growth in EV by 2050.  This also means that we will use an increasing amount of batteries and rare metals.  Currently, China controls the supply chains and critical resource constraints. 

If our goal is to be energy independent, we have a long way to go ... Nonetheless, recognize that this creates massive business and investment opportunities. 

Onwards!

Some Cool "Futuristic" Tech You Might Not Have Seen

I joke that I have a "tense" problem. I spend a lot of my time thinking about what will be possible in the future. And once I know something is possible, in my head, it has already happened.

It isn’t a reality distortion engine … it is a reality creation engine.

For me, this is centered around the way technology is transforming the world and how it affects my business. 

Sometimes it's nice to take a step back and look at all the "quality of life" improvements. The gadgets that make you say "Wow!" … even though they may not benefit you directly. 

So, here are a few that caught my eye over the last few weeks. 

Augmented Reality Running 

In 2020, Ghost Pacer put together a pair of AR glasses that would give you a virtual running partner. The app would analyze the running route and the wearer's desired goals and set them up against a virtual runner who would push them to their limits. 

Last year, SNAP and Nike teamed up to create a new AR running experience as well. 

 

Spectacles via YouTube

This is a great way to get moving for those (like my wife) who benefit from a structure around their exercise. 

Magnetic Slime Robot for Healthcare

 

New Scientist via YouTube

Watching the video of this slime is somewhat uncanny. Its movements feel almost lifelike. That being said, the potential for this custard-like slime worm is massive. It can navigate narrow passageways, grasp objects, and more. There are already plans to use this to remove foreign objects from people.  

Functioning Hoverboards 

 

RIDE via YouTube

Multiple generations of kids have dreamed of hoverboards after watching Back To The Future. While it's not in homes yet, it is now a reality as seen in this video with Tony Hawk riding one. Unfortunately, since breaking into the scene in 2015 with a successful Kickstarter, I have not seen much from Hendo Hoverboard. 

Thankfully, they're not the only company in the space anymore. If you're willing to drop almost 15K, you can own a working hoverboard from Arcaboard. 

I remember when we used to go outside to play or exercise.

We live in interesting times!  

Where Are Children Being Born?

Everyone knows that children are our future. They're the next generation of innovators, entrepreneurs, and workers. Countries that are having a natural decrease in population due to families not having children will likely find themselves becoming less important on the geopolitical stage.

While the future is often hard to predict, here is easy “prediction” (that is much less of a prediction than it is simple math). In order to predict how many 18-year-olds there will be in a particular country in fifteen years, simply count the 3-year-olds there now.  Yes, there will be some death or migration … but it is an easy way to get a sense of some important mega-trends.

With that said, the U.S. saw many states with more deaths than births in 2020 and 2021. 

So, where are children being born?

India, China, and Africa all are seeing massive population growth. America is still net positive. It's also worth noting that India and China are topping the list because they already have such large populations. Their birth rates are actually slightly below average. 

On a longer term scale, it's also worth noting that population growth has been declining since the 1960s. Partly due to education, wealth, and the move from rural to urban living. 

Slowing population growth means a larger portion of the population is older. As median age increases, there are lots of potential economic consequences.

It's an interesting compounding of consequences. 

We'll see if the countries with the largest population growth have the economy and infrastructure to support that growth. 

Oil Production By Country in 2021

You could argue that we're in the middle of the first energy crisis of the 21st century.

While gas prices are finally on the way back down, the recent surge is driving inflation and has consumers thinking much more about where their oil comes from. 

When I last wrote about oil production, the shocking "secret" was that the largest importer of oil into the U.S. was Canada - and that most of our oil was produced within the U.S. 

via visualcapitalist

While the U.S. is the largest producer of Oil, OPEC is the largest organization. OPEC accounts for 35% of total production, with Saudi Arabia accounting for a third of OPEC's output. 

Almost half of the world's oil production comes from The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia. 

Also, despite being the world's largest oil producer, the U.S. is still a net importer of oil. 

Supply constraints on oil - as a result of sanctions on Russia - are creating a price increase with skyrocketing demand from mid-pandemic levels. Combine that with OPEC refusing to increase production to meet demand, and you have an energy shortage. 

The U.S. has already started releasing barrels from its strategic reserves, and we've seen gas prices go down as a result, but it remains to be seen if our efforts will be enough to curb the shortage. 

What else do you think we should be doing?

US Spending in 2021

In a prior post, we looked at the Global GDP in 2021. Now, let's look at US Revenue vs. Expenditures in 2021. 

 

So, from the start, we can see a 2,770-billion-dollar deficit last year. The #1 expenditure was income security. For those who don't know, income security is an extremely broad spending category. It covers everything from tax credits and unemployment to housing assistance, foster care, and many other welfare programs. It's somewhat of a catch-all for services that help people get necessities. 

Surprisingly, the US pays more per person for healthcare than countries with nationalized healthcare. 

Looking at 2021 isn't the best indicator of America's spending history as a whole; there were a lot of one-time events - and a pandemic. Usually, the deficit isn't that staggering. 

via Congressional Budget Office

While the deficit may grow out of control, debt is a powerful tool - not just a liability.  Nonetheless, given our current economic situation, inflation, and rising interest rates, the strategy that got us here might not be the best strategy to get us where we want to go.

What are your thoughts? 

Billion ... With A B

Humans are notoriously bad at large numbers. It's hard to wrap our minds around something of that scale. We're wired to think locally and linearly, not exponentially (it's one of the reasons I love AI so much).

Here are a couple of ways to help you understand a billion dollars. 

via AskOpinion

Next, let's look at spending over time. If you were to spend a dollar every second for an entire day, you would spend $86,400 per day. You can do that for approximately twelve days if you have a million dollars. With a billion dollars, you can do that for over 31 years. Ignoring the difference between net worth and cash, Jeff Bezos could spend $9M per day for over 31 years.

If you make $100K a year, you can earn $1 million in 10 years. At the same rate, it would take you 10,000 years to make $1 billion.

Here is an example framed around spending money.  Imagine that someone making $50K a year decides to buy a laptop, a car, and a house. Now we're going to make a relative comparison of the cost of those items for people making a lot more than $50K per year.  To do this, we'll shrink the cost of the price of those items (to see the relative cost-to-income ratio). For a millionaire, a laptop might cost the equivalent of $100 dollars, a Porsche would cost $3,000 dollars, and a house would cost $25,000. Now, let's say you're Mike Bloomberg, and you're worth $60B. A laptop's relative cost would be pennies, a Porsche's relative cost would be less than 60 cents, and a mansion's relative cost would be around $500 dollars. You could have everything you ever wanted for a minute fraction of your wealth. 

For a different perspective, here's an interesting visualization from informationisbeautiful. It shows various examples of things worth billions of dollars – including the personal wealth of several billionaires. 

via informationisbeautiful

Okay, last one before I show a video ... 

Let's try explaining the concept of a Billion through time. Fifty thousand seconds is just under 14 hours. A million seconds was 11 days ago. A billion seconds ago from today? 1990. Pretty crazy. 

Here's a video from the 1970s that helps you understand scale through the power of tens – and an exploration of our universe.

 

Hope you enjoyed this.  Let me know what you think.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 17th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Biden is Very Unpopular. It May Not Tell Us Much About the Midterms. (FiveThirtyEight)
• The 23 Best New Productivity Apps for 2022. (FastCompany)
• Meet the Man Keeping Blockbuster Alive. (DallasNews)
• Was Warfare Responsible for the Origin of Complex Civilisation? (NewScientist)
• Create an Action Figure Version of Yourself With Hasbro's "Selfie Series". (Hypebae)

 

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Does Elon Musk Have a Strategy? (HBR)
• JPMorgan CEO Dimon Sums up U.S. Economy in One Paragraph And It Sounds Bad. (CNBC)
• Where Did the Stock Market's $7 Trillion Loss in Value Go? (Marketplace)
• The Speedy Downfall of Rapid Delivery Startups. (Wired)
• Why Hasn't the Russian Economy Tanked Yet? Putin Has Been Preparing for this Moment for Years. (Fortune)

 

 

 

Reinventing The Wheel

When I think about the invention of the wheel, I think about cavemen (even though I know that cavemen did not invent the wheel).

Lots of significant inventions predated the wheel by thousands of years.  For example, woven cloth, rope, baskets, boats, and even the flute were all invented before the wheel.

While simple, the wheel worked well (and still does).  Consequently, the phrase "reinventing the wheel" often is used derogatorily to depict needless or inefficient efforts.

But how does that compare to sliced bread (which was also a pretty significant invention)?

Despite being a hallmark of innovation, it still took more than 300 years for the wheel to be used for travel.  With a bit more analysis, it makes sense. In order to use a wheel for travel, it needs an axle, and it needs to be durable, and loadbearing, requiring relatively advanced woodworking and engineering. 

All the aforementioned products created before the wheel (except for the flute) were necessary for survival.  That's why they came first.

As new problems arose, so did new solutions.

Necessity is the mother of invention. 

Unpacking that phrase is a good reminder that inventions (and innovation) are often solution-centric. 

Too many entrepreneurs are attracted to an idea because it sounds cool. They get attracted to their ideas and neglect their ideal customer's actual needs. You see it often with people slapping "AI" on to their product and pretending it's more helpful. 

If you want to be disruptive, cool isn't enough. Your invention has to be functional, and it has to fix a problem people have (even if they don't know they have it.) The more central the complaint is to their daily lives the better.  

Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

Innovation means thinking about and anticipating wants and future needs.

Your customers may not even need something radically new. Your innovation may be a better application of existing technology or a reframe of best practices. 

Uber didn't create a new car, they created a new way to get from where you want with existing infrastructure and less friction. Netflix didn't reinvent the movie, they made it easier for you to watch one. 

As an entrepreneur, the trick is build for human nature (meaning, give people what they crave or eliminate the constraint they are trying to avoid) rather than the cool new tech that you are excited about.  

Human nature doesn’t seem to change much … Meanwhile, the pace of innovation continues to accelerate. 

The challenge is to focus on what people want rather than the distraction of possibility.

It gets harder as more things become possible.

We certainly live in interesting times!

Americans' Top Financial Concern

It's no secret that the economy is slowing - with high inflation rates and rising interest rates. 

According to Mohamed El-Erian, from Queens College at Cambridge University, we're experiencing stagflation - which is when inflation is high but growth is slowing significantly. Theoretically, that leads to recession. 

via visualcapitalist

The Consumer Price Index has also grown by over 8% in the past year, so the American household is facing financial threats from many angles. 

Many feel that the Fed has responded disappointingly recently, and their response (or lack thereof) will be a major dictator of whether we enter a recession. 

I believe that emotions play a role too. When people are afraid, they spend less and hoard what they can to save themselves from an unknown future. They feel anticipatory grief.  And their fear, uncertainty, and doubt ripple through society and our lives. 

Personally, I've weathered my heaviest storms by sailing toward the future regardless of the threats. An abundance mindset is a powerful tool, and as more people feel confident it becomes a macroeconomic trend with real influence. 

I'd encourage you to think about what opportunities there are and will be. There are always seasons of change … Winter eventually comes – and goes. Nevertheless, winter can be a great opportunity to plan your next moves and build the infrastructure to sow more seeds in the coming spring. 

As well, unlike nature, you can personally have springtime while the majority are in winter. We're currently in an A.I. springtime - and I believe that will continue regardless of economic trends. 

Happy to talk about this … Let me know what you are thinking and feeling!