A little over a week ago, a deepfake of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was used to try and convince Ukraine's soldiers to lay down their arms and surrender against Russia. On top of being shared on social media, hackers got it onto news sites and a TV ticker as well.
While it's not explicitly known that Russia did this – there's a long history of Russian cyberwarfare, including many instances of media manipulation.
Luckily, while the lip-sync was okay in this video, several cues helped us know it was fake.
Unfortunately, this is only the tip of the iceberg. Many deepfakes aren't as easy to discern. Consequently, as we fight wars (both physical and cultural), manipulated videos will increasingly alter both perceptions and reality.
Even when proven to be fake, the damage can persist. Some people might believe it anyway ... while others may begin distrusting all videos from leaders as potential misinformation.
That being said, not all deepfakes are malicious, and the potential for the technology is attractive. Production companies are already using it to splice in actors who might have aged or died into scenes in movies. Deepfake technology can also be used to allow a celebrity to sell their likeness without having to waste their time doing all the filming necessary to produce the intended finished product.
Deepfake technology also allows us to create glimpses into potential pasts or futures. For example, On July 20th, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed safely on the moon. They then returned to Earth safely as well. What if they didn't? MIT recently created a deepfake of a speech Nixon's speechwriter William Safire wrote during the Apollo 11 mission in case of disaster. The whole video is worth watching, but the "fake history" speech starts around the 4:20 mark.
"Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace." - Nixon's Apollo 11 Disaster Speech
“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.“ - Orwell, 1984
In an ideal world, history would be objective; facts about what happened, unencumbered by the bias of society, or the victor, the narrator, etc. On some level, however, history is written by the winners. Think about it ... perceived "truth" is shaped by the bias and perspectives of the chronicler.
Consequently, history (as we know it) is subjective. The narrative shifts to support the needs of the society that's reporting it.
The Cold War with the Soviet Union was a great example. During the war, immediately thereafter, and even today, the interpretation of what transpired has repeatedly changed (both here and there). The truth is that we are uncertain about what we are certain about.
But while that was one example, to a certain degree, we can see this type of phenomenon everywhere. Yes, we're even seeing it again with Russia.
But it runs deeper than cyber-warfare. News stations color the story told based on whether they're red or blue, and the internet is quick to jump on a bandwagon even if the information is hearsay. The goal is attention rather than truth.
Media disinformation is more dangerous than ever. Alternative history can only be called that when it's discernible from the truth ... and unfortunately, we're prone to look for information that already fits our biases.
As deepfakes get better, we'll likely get better at detecting them. But it's a cat-and-mouse game with no end in sight. Signaling Theory posits that signalers evolve to become better at manipulating receivers, while receivers become more resistant to manipulation.
I'm excited about the possibilities of technology, even though new capabilities present us with both promise and peril.
Meanwhile, "Change" and "Human Nature" remain constant.
I was just in Arizona, at a Genius Network event. Listened to some interesting speakers, spent time with some great friends and business partners, and also got to share some ideas with them as well.
My big takeaway for the weekend was on the power of contests and competition not just for attracting customers, but for hiring and as a catalyst to adoption and experimentation.
Unfortunately, my flight coincided with the first half of the Super Bowl.
Luckily, the Cowboys avoided conflicting with my schedules. I’d hate to think how I’d feel if I had to decide whether to attend the Super Bowl.
Conveniently, being on a plane didn’t limit my ability to watch.
Essentially every other person had the game on their device - so Zach and I could watch the game we don’t really care about while thinking about what could have been.
Do you think the Rams really have home-field advantage?
Looking at the list, we see new editions like Clubhouse and Strava. Partially due to the quarantine, you're still seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams.
Just to pick out some of the key figures in the chart this year.
Amazon users spend $283,000
6M people shop online
TikTok users watch 167M videos
and, Zoom hosts 856 minutes of webinars.
Before 2020, I already thought that big tech had a massive influence on our lives. Yet, somehow this past year has pushed their impact even higher.
One other thing this chart also helps put into perspective is the rapid rate of adoption. As you look at different year's charts, you can see how quickly apps have become part of the cultural zeitgeist.
How do you think these numbers will grow or change in 2022?
When you ask children what they want to be, many likely say YouTuber, Influencer, or some other variant of that theme.
Influence is a complicated thing. From an abstract perspective, it's the ability to affect someone else's behavior. A high schooler can influence their classmates. As entrepreneurs, we can influence our employees, our industry, and more. You can have immense influence over a small number of people or a little bit of influence over many people - both still count as "influence."
But, in this case, many of the most popular influencers aren't famous for changing the world; they are celebrities or just famous for being famous.
Below is a chart of the top 50 "influencers" by social media platform.
In the digital age, it's worth acknowledging social reach as power. People with a large platform have the opportunity to exert enormous influence - and it's why you often see the spread of misinformation reach far, fast.
It would be interesting to see how many of these people use their platforms to be a beacon to their followers (rather than a beacon to attract followers).
It would also be interesting to see how much (or little) engagement many of these "influencers" actually have with their followers (and how that level of engagement relates to the growth or decay of their followings).
While I assume that the readers of this post aren't in the business of being "Influencers," Most of us recognize the value of influence – and getting more of it.
As a result, it is probably worth thinking about influence as an asset. And now is time to think strategically about how to grow and use that asset better.
Last week, ESPN televised a blow-out of Ohio's Bishop Sycamore high school football program by Florida's IMG Academy. The score was 58-0. But that has little to do with this story.
The supposed school in Colombus, Ohio, is not recognized by the state's athletic association … and the department of education doesn't list a school with that name. Despite that, they somehow scammed ESPN into scheduling the game.
Here are some of the troubling data-points.
The head coach of the team, Roy Johnson, has an active warrant out for his arrest
They falsely claimed they had multiple Division 1 college prospects
ESPN couldn't verify any of the players in their scouting databases.
The director of Bishop Sycamore claims the school is not a scam, and his son is in the program. On the other hand, the “school” currently doesn't even have a working website.
It's impressive that in this era of information access, a school could defraud the nation, not once, but twice.
I even heard that Cam Newton got picked up by Bishop Sycamore after getting dropped from the Patriots.
Not really … but this is an interesting story – and reflects how easy it is for “fake” things and get real coverage.
While the Olympics are more controversial this year than normal, I think most of us can appreciate watching the best athletes performing at their peak. We can also laugh at the cardboard "anti-sex" beds they put in the Olympic Village.
With that, I thought I'd bring back a video I shot with Sébastien Toutant who won a gold medal at the most recent winter Olympics. I met Sébastien while leaving an F1 race in Montréal. I had a chance to talk to him about what makes him tick and where he sees his future.
It's a great case study in self-actualization after you've reached the top of your proverbial mountain top.
There are multiple factors at work in high performance and in keeping yourself passionate and motivated.
1. Find Your Unique Ability
"Snowboarding is my passion. I was doing it every day ... Over time, It's my job, but it's still my passion. Every time I strap in on my board, I love it. You have to balance it. You have to keep the fun alive."
Unique Ability is where there's superior skill and it gives you energy, instead of taking energy. When you have to grind every day to become the best, and it's taking energy away from you, you're not going to stick with it.
When it lights you up, there's no limit to the hours or years you can commit to it.
2. Maintain Good Habits and Build New Skills
"Keep Snowboarding. Keep Training. Keep Trying New Tricks. The sport is moving so much, so you always have to improve your riding and invent new tricks. Push the sport to the next level."
Success is a war of attrition. You gain it every day through consistent habits and hard work. It's easy to talk the talk, but it's harder to set yourself up for success. Structure your life, and your environment in a way that makes success the default.
3. Stay Focused on the Future
"You have to make sacrifices to make it there. But it's worth it."
At my office, we practice the idea of "Measure Backwards, Plan Forwards".
To us that means it's important to take time to appreciate how far you've come ... yet, it's also important to stay focused on what you can still accomplish.
Your edge is decaying faster than ever before. Competition is growing not just from your competitors but from technology as well. Stay focused on next.
By the way, there is one other lesson this encounter reminded me about – opportunity is all around you ... waiting for you to notice and act! It would have been easy for me to filter out the "kid" standing behind me in a line after an event. Luck favors the prepared. Stay focused on what you want and keep your eyes, ears, and mind open for ways to get it!
Changing the Course of History
A little over a week ago, a deepfake of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was used to try and convince Ukraine's soldiers to lay down their arms and surrender against Russia. On top of being shared on social media, hackers got it onto news sites and a TV ticker as well.
While it's not explicitly known that Russia did this – there's a long history of Russian cyberwarfare, including many instances of media manipulation.
Luckily, while the lip-sync was okay in this video, several cues helped us know it was fake.
Unfortunately, this is only the tip of the iceberg. Many deepfakes aren't as easy to discern. Consequently, as we fight wars (both physical and cultural), manipulated videos will increasingly alter both perceptions and reality.
Even when proven to be fake, the damage can persist. Some people might believe it anyway ... while others may begin distrusting all videos from leaders as potential misinformation.
That being said, not all deepfakes are malicious, and the potential for the technology is attractive. Production companies are already using it to splice in actors who might have aged or died into scenes in movies. Deepfake technology can also be used to allow a celebrity to sell their likeness without having to waste their time doing all the filming necessary to produce the intended finished product.
Deepfake technology also allows us to create glimpses into potential pasts or futures. For example, On July 20th, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed safely on the moon. They then returned to Earth safely as well. What if they didn't? MIT recently created a deepfake of a speech Nixon's speechwriter William Safire wrote during the Apollo 11 mission in case of disaster. The whole video is worth watching, but the "fake history" speech starts around the 4:20 mark.
MIT via In Event Of Moon Disaster
Conclusion
In an ideal world, history would be objective; facts about what happened, unencumbered by the bias of society, or the victor, the narrator, etc. On some level, however, history is written by the winners. Think about it ... perceived "truth" is shaped by the bias and perspectives of the chronicler.
Consequently, history (as we know it) is subjective. The narrative shifts to support the needs of the society that's reporting it.
The Cold War with the Soviet Union was a great example. During the war, immediately thereafter, and even today, the interpretation of what transpired has repeatedly changed (both here and there). The truth is that we are uncertain about what we are certain about.
But while that was one example, to a certain degree, we can see this type of phenomenon everywhere. Yes, we're even seeing it again with Russia.
But it runs deeper than cyber-warfare. News stations color the story told based on whether they're red or blue, and the internet is quick to jump on a bandwagon even if the information is hearsay. The goal is attention rather than truth.
Media disinformation is more dangerous than ever. Alternative history can only be called that when it's discernible from the truth ... and unfortunately, we're prone to look for information that already fits our biases.
As deepfakes get better, we'll likely get better at detecting them. But it's a cat-and-mouse game with no end in sight. Signaling Theory posits that signalers evolve to become better at manipulating receivers, while receivers become more resistant to manipulation.
I'm excited about the possibilities of technology, even though new capabilities present us with both promise and peril.
Meanwhile, "Change" and "Human Nature" remain constant.
And so we go.
Posted at 07:13 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Film, Gadgets, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Television, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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