Capitalogix

Merry Chrismakkuh

Today is Christmas ... and it is also the last night of Chanukah.  So, Merry Christmas and Happy Chanukah!  And Happy Festivus to anyone who doesn't celebrate either. 

For those that don't know, Chanukah is the Jewish festival of lights.  This is the holiday that involves lighting the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eating latkes (potato pancakes), exchanging gifts, playing spin the Dreidel (a gambling game), and enjoying a sense of family togetherness for eight days and nights.

That's a long time, right?!  Well, sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

To help you stay in the right mood, here is a video of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he has since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

Here is the video.  And, if you're feeling left out - here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

The cynic in me believes merchants invented the gift part of the holiday.

Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been festive, and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.  Here is a picture that some of the team took after our ugly sweater contest.

I hope you're having a wonderful celebration surrounded by people you love and food that would make your cardiologist feel safe buying a new Porche.

Another AI Art Gimmick

There's a new trend of AI-generated profile pictures - using tools like avatar.ai.

Below are some sample results my son, Zach, got after downloading an iPhone app called Lensa.  The company that makes it also offers a product called Prisma that is worth looking at as well.  He paid $4 within Lensa to generate these AI photos (for context, avatar.ai charges more than 5x as much).  He uploaded 17 photos from different angles (and with different expressions), and the app promised 50 pieces from 4 styles.

What do you think of the results?  I thought some of them were surprisingly good. 

 

Some were not so good ... (or at least outside my zone of artistic preferences).

After seeing his, I'll admit I got curious and made my own. 

 

To be honest, these apps are still volatile ... meaning, sometimes they are good enough to seriously impress – but they also can underwhelm from time to time.  Check out DALL-E for more examples of the dynamic range of possibilities and results.

Regardless, I am impressed with AI art's progress and momentum.  Recently, generative AI has gotten a lot of hate (along with the hype), nonetheless, people are talking about it (meanwhile AI art is still not as polarizing as Kanye). 

The reality is, most of these tools still are an elegant use of brute force.  Nonetheless, I am bullish.  Hardware and software are getting better ... and when fed more data, generative art depictions get better as well. 

The uses continue to get more elegant and complex as time passes ... but we're still coding the elegance. 

For more on this topic: 

• Dall-E and AI-Generated Art 
• AI editing underwater photography
• AI evaluates how normal your face is
• On deepfakes and fake news
• Bruce Willis and AI movie characters

Happy Thanksgiving 2022!

I hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving! 

This year, we continued our tradition of going to the Cowboys game – then having a big dinner together afterward.

I got to spend time with both my sons and my first grandchild (who didn’t seem to want her picture taken while there was so many other things to investigate).

 

 

Thanksgiving is a reminder to be grateful for the blessings in your life - big and small. But it's also a time to be thankful for the challenges in your life - and the opportunities for growth.

Often, when I think about what I want, the first thing I think of is what I don't want. Similarly, when I think about what's going well (or something worthy of being thankful for), I first think about what has been difficult or isn't above minimum standards yet.  Some things change quickly.  Apparently, human nature isn't one of them.

Challenges are often hidden gold mines. Instead of thinking about them being obstacles for you, recognize that getting past them creates an obstacle for competitors. In other words, figuring out a strategy to achieve these lofty goals creates a new status quo and a sustainable competitive advantage.

At Capitalogix, we often talk about "finding a way," "creating breakthroughs," and "setting new standards."  The reason is that most things an innovator wants are just outside their current capabilities (otherwise, they'd already have them).  

Dealing with this on a daily basis requires a resilient mindset and the ability to be comfortable with being uncomfortable. 

Having no problems either means you're blind to your flaws or aren't playing a big enough game (which is a problem in itself). 

So, I am thankful for my health, my family and friends, and the quality of my life. But, I am also thankful for the stress, the challenges, and the opportunity to face a continually better class of challenges that forge a path to a bigger future.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Swish Machine

Rube Goldberg machines impress me more often than not. Here's a 70-step outdoor machine that covers a lot of ground ... all to put a basketball in a hoop. It took a month to create, and another month to get working. 

 

via Creezy

I love stuff like this because it reminds me of life. Looking backward, you see how all the pieces go together. As you're going through it, it feels random and sometimes like you're moving backward or that your effort isn't directly contributing to your goal.

Nonetheless, it all comes together in the end.

Onwards!  

The Average NFL Player (By Position)

Football season is officially underway!  In honor of that, here's a look at each position's composite "player" (as of 2019).

As you might expect, different sports have different ratios of ethnicities.  For example, you might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Asians in Badminton.

The same is true for various positions on a football team.  Offensive linemen are more likely to be white – while running backs are more likely to be black. 

Here is a visualization that shows what happens when you average the top players' faces in various positions.

osmutiar via Reddit

Composites are interesting.

While you may be thinking "this player must be unstoppable" ... statistically, he's average.

The "composite" NFL player would be the 848th best player in the league.  He's not a starter, and he plays on an average team.  You probably don't know his name if you don't root for his team. 

We found the same thing with our trading bots.  The ones that made it through most filters weren't star performers.  They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories).  Meaning, the survivors were generalists – not specialists.

In an ideal world, with no roster limits, you'd want the perfect lineup for each granular situation.  You'd want to evaluate players on how they perform under pressure, on different downs, against other players, and with different schemes. 

That's what technology lets you do with algorithms.  You can have a library of systems that communicate with each other ... and you don't even have to pay their salary (but you will need data scientists, researchers, machines, data, alternative data, electricity, disaster recovery, and a testing platform).

You won't find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety.  Generalists are great, but you also have to be able to respond to specific conditions.

Onwards.

Honoring Serena Williams

Serena Williams officially retired on Friday after a loss in the third round of the US Open to 29-year-old Ajla Tomljanovic. Serena won her first Grand Slam Title 23 years ago in the same stadium. 

Serena started playing professional tennis in 1995 as a 14-year-old.  Twenty-seven years later, she walks away from the game with 858 tour victories, an 85% win rate, 73 singles titles, an Olympic gold medal, and 319 weeks at No. 1. With her sister, Venus, they won 14 major doubles titles and three Olympic gold medals.

Recently, I shared this graph that helps put the Williams sisters' dominance into perspective. 

via Yahoo!Sports

Serena is undoubtedly one of the most dominant athletes - man or woman - in any sport. 

To be great requires an extraordinary level of grit, determination, and pain tolerance over an extended period of time.  It isn't just what you choose to do from moment to moment – it's about a persistent commitment to who you choose to be!  

During Serena's final match, an ESPN commentator said something interesting about what makes her (and many famous athletes) great.  For context, Serena was down 5-1 in the final set of the final match, with her opponent having won two sets already.  It's 'game point'.   To get here, Ajla will win a point, then Serena - it goes back and forth like that more than seven times.  Yet, Serena keeps finding a way to keep herself in the match despite everything going against her. 

While this is going on, the commentator exclaims, "How can she care so much?  How can she keep dancing on the lip of the volcano?" 

Imagine being in Serena's position.  She's 40, she's announced her retirement, the match has been going on for almost 3 hours, and her chances of coming back are almost nil ... she has nothing left to prove ... but she keeps finding more in the tank.  She keeps putting herself in a position to turn it around.  After the match, her opponent makes clear that she never once thought that Serena was out of it - that she couldn't turn it around and clinch victory. 

It was beautiful - and it was a testament to the passion and discipline it takes to be that elite for that long. 

There's a difference between good and great - but there's also a difference between great and the greatest. 

Some Cool "Futuristic" Tech You Might Not Have Seen

I joke that I have a "tense" problem. I spend a lot of my time thinking about what will be possible in the future. And once I know something is possible, in my head, it has already happened.

It isn’t a reality distortion engine … it is a reality creation engine.

For me, this is centered around the way technology is transforming the world and how it affects my business. 

Sometimes it's nice to take a step back and look at all the "quality of life" improvements. The gadgets that make you say "Wow!" … even though they may not benefit you directly. 

So, here are a few that caught my eye over the last few weeks. 

Augmented Reality Running 

In 2020, Ghost Pacer put together a pair of AR glasses that would give you a virtual running partner. The app would analyze the running route and the wearer's desired goals and set them up against a virtual runner who would push them to their limits. 

Last year, SNAP and Nike teamed up to create a new AR running experience as well. 

 

Spectacles via YouTube

This is a great way to get moving for those (like my wife) who benefit from a structure around their exercise. 

Magnetic Slime Robot for Healthcare

 

New Scientist via YouTube

Watching the video of this slime is somewhat uncanny. Its movements feel almost lifelike. That being said, the potential for this custard-like slime worm is massive. It can navigate narrow passageways, grasp objects, and more. There are already plans to use this to remove foreign objects from people.  

Functioning Hoverboards 

 

RIDE via YouTube

Multiple generations of kids have dreamed of hoverboards after watching Back To The Future. While it's not in homes yet, it is now a reality as seen in this video with Tony Hawk riding one. Unfortunately, since breaking into the scene in 2015 with a successful Kickstarter, I have not seen much from Hendo Hoverboard. 

Thankfully, they're not the only company in the space anymore. If you're willing to drop almost 15K, you can own a working hoverboard from Arcaboard. 

I remember when we used to go outside to play or exercise.

We live in interesting times!  

US Spending in 2021

In a prior post, we looked at the Global GDP in 2021. Now, let's look at US Revenue vs. Expenditures in 2021. 

 

So, from the start, we can see a 2,770-billion-dollar deficit last year. The #1 expenditure was income security. For those who don't know, income security is an extremely broad spending category. It covers everything from tax credits and unemployment to housing assistance, foster care, and many other welfare programs. It's somewhat of a catch-all for services that help people get necessities. 

Surprisingly, the US pays more per person for healthcare than countries with nationalized healthcare. 

Looking at 2021 isn't the best indicator of America's spending history as a whole; there were a lot of one-time events - and a pandemic. Usually, the deficit isn't that staggering. 

via Congressional Budget Office

While the deficit may grow out of control, debt is a powerful tool - not just a liability.  Nonetheless, given our current economic situation, inflation, and rising interest rates, the strategy that got us here might not be the best strategy to get us where we want to go.

What are your thoughts? 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 17th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Biden is Very Unpopular. It May Not Tell Us Much About the Midterms. (FiveThirtyEight)
• The 23 Best New Productivity Apps for 2022. (FastCompany)
• Meet the Man Keeping Blockbuster Alive. (DallasNews)
• Was Warfare Responsible for the Origin of Complex Civilisation? (NewScientist)
• Create an Action Figure Version of Yourself With Hasbro's "Selfie Series". (Hypebae)

 

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Does Elon Musk Have a Strategy? (HBR)
• JPMorgan CEO Dimon Sums up U.S. Economy in One Paragraph And It Sounds Bad. (CNBC)
• Where Did the Stock Market's $7 Trillion Loss in Value Go? (Marketplace)
• The Speedy Downfall of Rapid Delivery Startups. (Wired)
• Why Hasn't the Russian Economy Tanked Yet? Putin Has Been Preparing for this Moment for Years. (Fortune)

 

 

 

Happy Father's Day 2022

For Father's Day, my youngest son took me to see Top Gun 2 in DFX.  It's been a while since I've been in a movie theatre, and this was a movie worth doing the right way.  It lived up to the hype. 

He also took me to brunch and invited his girlfriend - a rare occasion that I hope becomes more common.

It's been ten years since he started working with me at Capitalogix. Here's his first professional pic and his most recent.  Time flies while you are getting older!

As a father, having great kids is a double blessing.  On one hand, it's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do.  On the other hand, it's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.  It's also my first Father's Day as a grandfather.   After decades of messing with my kids, now I get to mess with a new generation! 

Of course, I also look back ... and spent some time thinking about my father and his terrific influence on so many lives.  

My Dad was incredibly loving.  Yet, he was also incredibly demanding.

For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, I watched him run down from the stands.  I figured he was coming down to celebrate.  Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed that I did not throw a personal best that day?  I replied: "But Dad, I won." He smiled and recognized that winning was important too ... then he reminded me that the other throwers were not the real competition.  In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and meeting the minimum standards for them as well.

Here is something else worth sharing; it was one of his favorite sayings.  "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things.  For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them.  The point is to set a higher standard and to have a better life.

Well, that should explain a little of the dysfunction ...  but, if you can't mess up your own kids, whose kids can you mess up?

Hopefully, you had a happy Father's Day weekend.