Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 27th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• AI Should Change What You Do, Not Just How You Do It. (HBR)
• Twitter CEO Explains How Bitcoin, Blockchain Will Revamp Its Business. (Decrypt)
• The 12 Best Fitness Apps Right Now. (GearPatrol)
• Scientists are Preparing to Implant the World's First Human Bionic Eye that Will Allow the Blind to See. (AOL)
• Freezing Bodies for Reanimation' in China and Why the Country's Cryonics Tech Has the Potential to Leapfrog the West. (South China Morning Post)

 

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• The 12 Richest Tech Billionaires in the World Ranked. (South China Morning Post)
• Wall Street is about to Start Trading Water for the First Time. (EuroNews)
• Why Investors Want 50% of Stocks above 200-Day Moving Average. (SeeItMarket)
• A Complete Mess: Traders Fear Volatility Long after Election Day. (Bloomberg)
• Wall Street's Campaign Donations to Biden are Five Times Larger Than Those Going to Trump. (CNN)

 

 

Do You Agree to These Terms?

One of the biggest lies on the internet (and there are too many lies to count) is "I have read and agree to the terms of service(ToS)."

There is a plug-in that might help.

Terms of Service Didn't Read has summaries of most ToS, ratings for their user-friendliness and a browser plug-in so when you're about to sign one you can make sure it's safe. 

via TOSDR

Unfortunately, many of the ToS tell you that they're going to use your data, sell it to spammers, etc. For example, I talked about how a shadowy Russian company was behind FaceApp and owned the rights to photos you uploaded. 

Luckily, not every clause in a ToS is legal, and won't necessarily hold up in court - but that doesn't mean you shouldn't be protecting yourself. 

So, check out TOSDR, it's not perfect ... but it's probably better than nothing.

The Growth of Home Fitness (and Fitness Tracking)

Home fitness isn't a new trend, but we've come a long way from the Aerobics videos of my youth ...

The technology of home workouts has also improved a lot, even before COVID-19 put it into overdrive. 

From YouTube channels with any type of workout you could look for, to simple machines for any type of workout you're looking for. 

I've shared articles before about some of my favorite tools

• Carol – An AI Fitness bike specializing in High-Intensity Interval Training
• Power Plate – Whole Body Vibration to help with stretching and bodyweight exercises
• x3 Bar – Resistance Bands to replace weightlifting equipment
• Tonal – A smart home gym

So, how has the quarantine affected the industry?

via VisualCapitalist

Worldwide, health & fitness app downloads have grown by 46%. With a mass majority of that being in India. On top of downloads, daily active users have also increased by 24% worldwide. 

Is Home Fitness Here to Stay?

Health & fitness apps have been a big part of my arsenal, far before social distancing was a thing, and they'll continue to be an important part of my future fitness plans. 

Many people prefer the gym/class environment for workouts, so home workouts will never represent a major proportion of the market, but it's non-trivial and continues to grow. 

More likely to continue to grow in use are the tracking and mindfulness apps. 

I like several guided meditation apps.

• Calm
• Headspace
• Pzizz

In addition, I like these too.

• Focus@Will (background music for different moods)
• Brain.FM (AI created music to enhance focus, relaxation, meditation, naps & sleep)
• Meditation Music (5-minute songs, inhale at the bell, exhale at the next bell ... repeat)
• Zen Wellness (courses about meditation, Qi Gong, etc.)
• Muse (brain sensing headband and app to help you know whether you are relaxing)

I also recommend:

• Hapbee – A device that lets you choose how to feel
• Apollo Neuro – Wearable wellness and stress relief
• 40 Years of Zen – This is a 5-day program that leverages neurofeedback technology and guidance to help you unlock and expand your potential.

For fitness tracking, I use: 

• Oura Ring (personal health tracker that specializes in detailed sleep tracking & Heart Rate Variability measurement)
• Whoop (similar fitness tracker but targeted towards athletes & recovery)
• Apple Watch

 

Let me know if there is something that I should add to the list.

Gartner's 2020 Hype Cycle For Emerging Technologies

Each year, I share an article about Gartner's Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. It's one of the few reports that I make sure to track every year. It does a good job of explaining what technologies are reaching maturity, but which technologies are being supported by the cultural zeitgeist. 

Technology has become cultural. It influences almost every aspect of every-day life, and it's also a massive differentiator in today's competitive landscape. 

Sorting through which technologies are making real waves (and will impact the world) and which technologies are a flash in the pan, can be a monumental task. Gartner's report is a great benchmark to compare reality against. 

2019's trends lead nicely into 2020's trends. While there have been a lot of innovations, the industry movers have stayed the same - advanced AI and analytics, post-classical computing and communication, and the increasing ubiquity of technology (sensors, augmentation, IoT, etc.). 

What's a "Hype Cycle"?

As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily life. 

Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.

Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

That being said - it's worth acknowledging that the hype cycle can't predict which technologies will survive the trough of disillusionment and which ones will fade into obscurity. 

What's exciting this year?

Before I focus on this year, it's important to remember that last year Gartner shifted towards introducing new technologies at the expense of technologies that would normally persist through multiple iterations of the cycle. This points toward more innovation and more technologies being introduced than in the genesis of this report. Many of the technologies from last year (like Augmented Intelligence, 5G, biochips, the decentralized web, etc.) are represented within newer modalities. 

It's also worth noting the impact of the pandemic on the prevalent technologies. 

For comparison, here's my article from last year, and here's my article from 2015. Click on the chart below to see a larger version of this year's Hype Cycle.

via Gartner

This year's ~30 key technologies were selected from over 2000 technologies and bucketed into 5 major trends:

• Composite Architectures represent the organizational shift to agile and responsive architectures due to decentralization and increased volatility. Emphasis is on modularity, continuous improvement, and adaptive innovation to respond to changing market conditions (like in trading, or in businesses rapidly shifting to remote). Sample technologies include embedded AI and private 5G
• Algorithmic Trust is a direct result of increasing data exposure, fake news, and biased algorithms. As a result, technologies have been built to "ensure" identities, privacy, and security. A great example is more technologies being created on the blockchain. Other examples include explainable AI and authenticated provenance
• Beyond Silicon is in its infancy, but represents the limitations of Moore's law and the physical of silicon. This has led to new advanced materials with enhanced capabilities being used, and other simple materials being used. Examples of this technology can be seen in  DNA computing and storage, quantum computing, and biodegradable sensors. 
• Formative AI is the shift towards more responsive AI; models that adapt over time and models that can create novel solutions to solve specific problems. Sample technologies include generative AI, self-supervising learning, and composite AI. 
• Digital me represents the integration of technology with people, both in reality and virtual reality. Past hype cycles have introduced implants and wearables, but the potential applications of the technology are growing, especially in response to social distancing.  Examples are health passports, Two-way BMI, and social distancing technologies. 

I'm always most interested in the intersection of AI and advanced analytics. This year, it looks like many of the fledgling AI technologies have become integrated and more advanced. Much like the formative years for children, formative AI represents a new era in AI maturity. Models are becoming more generalized, and able to attack more problems. They're becoming integrated with human behavior (and even with humans as seen in digital me). 

As we reach new echelons of AI, it's actually more likely that you'll see over-hype and short-term failures. As you reach for new heights, you often miss a rung on the ladder... but it doesn't mean you stop climbing. More importantly, it doesn't mean failure or even a lack of progress.  Challenges and practical realities act as force functions that forge better, stronger, more resilient, and adaptable solutions that do what you wanted (or something better).  It just takes longer than you initially wanted or hoped.

To paraphrase a quote I have up on the wall in my office from Rudiger Dornbusch ... Things often take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could. 

Many of these technologies have been hyped for years - but the hype cycle is different than the adoption cycle. We often overestimate a year and underestimate 10. 

Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?

Let's Play: News Segment or Propaganda Piece?

There is nothing wrong with your television.  We will control all that you see and hear. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive.  Enjoy ....

 

The original,, from The Outer Limits TV show was: 

There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image; make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the outer limits.

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe, so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

Recently, we've seen a massive uptick in distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

To a certain degree, this is understandable and justified. Here is an example of the power of the media focused on a message.  Click to watch.

 

via Courier News

Propaganda has always been an issue, and almost everyone does it; governments, companies, etc. Luckily, it's easier to see today than in the past, but unluckily it's also more pervasive and insidious than before. 

It's to the point where if you watch the news you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news you're uninformed. 

The above segment portrays a rosy picture of Amazon's efforts to protect its workers while delivering essentials to the struggling homebound masses. This comes while Amazon has come under massive fire for removing some of its protections. 

Honestly, I use Amazon and, in my opinion, this isn't a massive breach of trust. News stations have a lot of time to fill, they often have sponsored content.

That being said, it's something to be cognizant of - not necessarily offended by.

Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens.

It's a great reminder that what you're seeing and hearing is carefully manufactured, and hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble. 

Carol's Keeping Me In Shape

As I get older, I become more conscious of my mental and physical health. It's easy as an entrepreneur or business person to lose track of your health - but investing in your personal health can be the best thing you do for your business.

Many of my friends now believe that with technology and a sustained focus on health & longevity, they can live past 100. They're paying attention to genetic, physiologic & biochemical makeup, cognitive function, body composition, cardiovascular performance, hormonal status, and much more. Whether they're going to live past 100 or not, I can see the daily results in the quality of their life and the way they look. 

It's the reason I started working with APEX, Dr. Jeffrey Gladden's concierge medical wellness practice.

They've got me eating salads, taking supplements, and thinking about what it takes to be healthy, fit, and vital. 

The goal is to enjoy life though ... Not to deprive yourself as this image portrays ...

 

Exercise is also an important part of the "healthy, fit, and vital" equation.

With gyms being closed during the recent Quarantine, I found another tool that I fell in love with.

Her name is Carol; an AI fitness bike that personalizes a HIIT workout for you,  based on your fitness and your preferred workout length. It makes it way easier for me to fit workouts into my schedule (and way harder to justify skipping a session). 

 

The promise is an "hour's worth" of exercise compressed into an 8-minute workout that really only has two 20-second periods of intense effort.

The science is sound. My experience is that it works for me.  I've done it for about two months now.  The results are undeniable (in terms of muscle tone, endurance, 20% improvement on many of the metrics tracked by the bike, etc.).

The more you use it the smarter it gets. It automatically adjusts to give you exactly the resistance you need to keep you motivated and to continue making progress.

I've been impressed. Working-out at home has always been a struggle for me. I've bought other tools for lifting or cardio, but they tend to end up as coat racks or space fillers. 

Exercise has a "social" component for some people ( comes to mind). Some people need the "social" component of exercise to get through hard workouts (think Peloton or OrangeTheory.) The Carol bike doesn't fully satisfy that part of exercise ... but they do a great job of keeping the session short, fun, and gamified (so that you know where you are, how you are progressing, and where you stand in the rankings).  The combination of the efficiency of the workouts - and being able to see that you are getting fitter, objectively, has been just what I needed. 

Besides Carol's website, here is a link to check out their YouTube channel. 

Onwards. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 7th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Science Fails. (Aeon)
• When Everyone Can Work from Home, Who Goes Back to the Office? (Quartz)
• Nvidia's AI Recreates Pac-Man from Scratch Just by Watching It Being Played. (TheVerge)
• Demystifying Deep Learning and Artificial Intelligence. (TheNewStack)
• Your Organization Needs a Proprietary Data Strategy. (HBR)

 

Trading Links:

• United Airlines Restores Flights at 150 U.S., Canadian Destinations in July, Add Nonstops. (USAToday)
• Apple Share Price Hits All-time High after Recovering from COVID-19 Losses. (Cult of Mac)
• Zoom Reported a Perfect Quarter. Why Its Stock Reaction Could Suggest Trouble for Much of Tech. (Barrons)
• What Does the Shocking Unemployment Report Really Mean? (The Atlantic)
• Markets are Upside down Right Now as Young Hedge Fund Chiefs Face Their First Crisis. We Dug up What the Biggest Managers from Cliff Asness to David Tepper Said They Learned from Last Major Economic Downturn. (BusinessInsider)

 

Are You A Maverick Or A Heretic?

I have a tents problem. I keep buying tents, but I never go camping. Just kidding - I don’t own a tent. I have a tense problem – because I’m so excited about the future and what’s possible that I sometimes lose track of what’s been actualized "in real life" already.

Once I’ve thought it, it becomes real for me. Once I’ve figured it out and told it to someone ... on some level, it's already done. And, I’m probably moving on to the next idea or challenge in my head (like: And what would that make possible?).

I think this is common among (to use a Kolbe term) Quick Starts. I love being around entrepreneurs because a lot of them are Quick Starts, and they share this future-focused perspective. The problem, however, is that when you say something’s possible that hasn’t been proven yet, the average person responds with “no it’s not.”

I’ve seen the pattern over and over, both in my own company and in my friend’s companies. At my company, we have a lot of data scientists - and they’re almost all naturally pessimistic. Which makes sense; if you were going to hire a personality type to be a scientist, you’d want someone who didn’t believe their hypothesis until they’ve proven it. It’s the right personality for the job, but it doesn’t mean they’re right, and it certainly doesn’t mean that approach is right for the visionaries.

I’m not telling everyone to be visionaries. What I am saying is, if you’re naturally a visionary, feel free to embrace it, but surround yourself with people who keep you grounded in reality. We’d never have innovation if it wasn’t for you, and innovators wouldn’t ever get anything done if it wasn’t for other personality types.

Information Is Beautiful put together an interactive list of famous ideas rejected that were later proven correct. You can filter by industry - Astronomy, Biology, Engineering, Mathematics, Medicine, Physical Sciences - and by other factors like how long the originator was a pariah, how they were treated due to their idea, and when the idea was formally adopted. Click to see the interactive version. 

via Information Is Beautiful

In 895, Al-Razi believing a fever was a natural defense mechanism got him beaten.

In 1592, Giordano Bruno believing the Sun was one of many stars got him killed. Shortly after, Galileo Galilei was imprisoned for believing the earth wasn’t the center of the solar system.

Losing some of the stakes, in 1884 and 1903 respectively, Nikola Tesla and the Wright Brothers were ignored and rejected for their technological innovations.

Even today you can see the initial response to visionaries like Peter Diamandis or Elon Musk.

The status quo is comfortable, but if you’re standing still you’re moving backward.

Are you a maverick or a heretic? You won’t know until you see it to the end. You may experience failures, but that’s the experience for your next endeavor.

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." - Thomas Edison

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 31st, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• SpaceX Launches New Era of Spaceflight with Company's First Crewed Mission. (NationalGeographic)
• Space Exploration's next Frontier: Remote-Controlled Robonauts. (Bloomberg)
• As States Start to Reopen, Here's Where People are Going. (Washington Post)
• Primer: Demystifying Data Science. (TheNewStack)
• Meeter is a New Mac App for Quickly Joining Zoom Meetings, Google Hangouts, and More. (9to5Mac)

 

Trading Links:

• Is China Overtaking the US as a Financial and Economic Power? (TheGuardian)
• Singapore's Financial Centre Will Emerge as Big Winner of a Draconian Chinese Law. (Insider)
• The UN Says a New Computer Simulation Tool Could Boost Global Development. (TechReview)
• U.S. Stock Market is Overpriced by 16%, Warns Oxford Think-Tank. (CCN)
• A Wall Street Firm Studied Every Crash over the past 100 Years and Concluded that the Unusual Performance of 7 Tech Stocks is Masking the Risk of a Prolonged Meltdown. (BusinessInsider)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 24th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• We are Doing in a Few Months What Would Normally Take a Drug Development Process Years to Do' with AI. (ZDNet)
• Findings From The AI Index Annual Report. (Stanford-AI)
• Terrifying Black Light Videos Show How Easy It Is to Catch Coronavirus. (BGR)
• Why Zoom Meetings are So Dissatisfying. (Economist)
• Travelers Now Scoring $700 Business Class Flights to Europe with Sneaky Loophole. (DMarge)

 

Trading Links:

• Hertz Files for Bankruptcy after 16,000 Employees Were Let Go. (Forbes)
• One Chart to Catch You up on 2020 ... And the Economy. (HowardLindzon)
• Second Stimulus Check Proposes $1,200 Extra with Round 2. Here's the Situation. (CNet)
• The World's 25 Richest Billionaires Have Gained Nearly $255 Billion in Just Two Months. (Forbes)
• What History Tells Us about the Accelerating AI Revolution. (Wall Street Journal)