Capitalogix

Tikkun Olam & Kintsugi: Happy Rosh Hashanah

Yesterday, I celebrated the Jewish New Year - Rosh Hashanah - with my family and our friend Ben Hardy.

Ben joined us for services and lunch at one of our favorite local delis.

Next week is Yom Kippur, which is the Day of Atonement in the Jewish religion.

As part of the holiday, participants read a list of sins (available here), apologize for those committed, and ask for forgiveness.  Read the list ... much has changed, but apparently, human nature hasn’t.  

Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

To help mark the importance of the day, participants read a poem called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt that captures the spirit. 

Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor), or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.  Your choices about these things have very real power to create the experience and environment you will live in during the next year.

As we shared our holiday with Ben, I started to think about what lessons from other cultures we could leverage in our interpretation of the day.  One concept came straight to mind ... the Japanese art of Kintsugi. In Kintsugi, the Japanese mend broken pottery by gilding the fractures with gold, silver, or platinum.  This treats the breaks and damage as an element that adds value and enhances the beauty of an object (preserving a part of its history) - rather than something that simply diminishes the object. 

This concept is an excellent reminder as we try to repair some of the breaks happening in the American culture war, and the damages of the isolation and death during COVID.  Our steps backward are just as much a part of our journey as our steps forward.  As you heal, it is also important to remember to heal the world around you as well.  In the Jewish faith, that concept is called Tikkun Olam. 

One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you’re only ever one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others.  As you recognize and repent for your sins, it’s important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well. 

100 Days Left

There are just over 100 days before the start of 2024.  Many will spend those 100 days stressing about the upcoming elections, grumbling about how 2020 was mishandled, and pretending it’s the universe’s fault they didn’t accomplish what they set their mind to ... yet, 100 days is enough time to sprint, to make a change, and to end the year on a high note. 

There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet.  What can you do?  What will you do?

What could you do to make the life of someone around you better?  Likewise, how can you let others know you’re thankful for them?

To reference a book by Ben Hardy (and Dan Sullivan), transformational change is often easier than incremental change (because you don’t have to drag the past forward).

So, what can you do that would trigger 10X results?   Will you?

I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  

Best wishes for a great day, and an even better year!

Life After Death ... Will A.I. Help you Live Forever?

My Aunt recently passed away. She was my Dad's sister ... and she was a fantastic person. She was loving and kind. She was a natural-born caregiver, And she was as sharp as a tack. What wouldn't we give for another moment with her? My response to her death reminded me of my feelings when my Dad passed away. 

This time, the conversation was a little different. People asked me if I thought that A.I. would enable us to live on after our bodies started to give out on us. I recorded some of my thoughts. 

 

I don't think A.I. will give us life after death.

I do believe technology will get good enough to create a replica of you - that talks like you, responds like you, and even comforts people who miss you. 

I don't believe technology can capture whatever part of us doesn't live in our bodies. Whether you call it our soul (or something else), I don't think that will ever get uploaded to the matrix, so you live on. 

And, I think that's okay. Part of the beauty of existence is the transience, the joy, the suffering, and the range of human experience. That is a big part of what we call life.

When my Dad was dying, every moment took on new meaning. Not only did time seem to slow down, but there was a weight and intimacy that's often taken for granted. 

What do you think?

Rewriting The Past, Present, and Future

"Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace." - Nixon's Apollo 11 Disaster Speech

In an ideal world, history would be objective; facts about what happened, unencumbered by the bias of society, or the victor, the narrator, etc.

I think it's apparent that history as we know it is subjective.  The narrative shifts to support the needs of the society that's reporting it.  History books are written by the victors. 

The Cold War is a great example where, during the war, immediately after the war, and today, the interpretation of the causes and events has all changed.  

But while that's one example, to a certain degree, we can see it everywhere.  We can even see it in the way events are reported today.  News stations color the story based on whether they're red or blue, and the internet is quick to jump on a bandwagon even if the information is hearsay. 

Now, what happens when you can literally rewrite history?

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.“ - Orwell, 1984

That's one of the potential risks of generative AI and deepfake technology.  As it gets better, creating "supporting evidence" becomes easier for whatever narrative a government or other entity is trying to make real.

On July 20th, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed safely on the moon.  They then returned to Earth safely as well. 

MIT recently created a deepfake of a speech Nixon's speechwriter William Safire wrote during the Apollo 11 mission in case of disaster.  The whole video is worth watching, but the speech starts around 4:20. 

 

MIT via In Event Of Moon Disaster

Media disinformation is more dangerous than ever.  Alternative narratives and histories can only be called that when they are discernible from the truth.  In addition, people often aren't looking for the "truth" – instead, they are prone to look for information that already fits their biases. 

As deepfakes get better, we'll also get better at detecting them.  But it's a cat-and-mouse game with no end in sight.  In Signaling Theory, it's the idea that signalers evolve to become better at manipulating receivers, while receivers evolve to become more resistant to manipulation.  We're seeing the same thing in trading with algorithms. 

In 1983, Stanislav Petrov saved the world. Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for a Russian nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the U.S., followed by up to five more.  Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm and didn't authorize retaliation (and a potential nuclear WWIII where countless would have died). 

But messaging is now getting more convincing.  It's harder to tell real from fake.  What happens when a world leader has a convincing enough deepfake with a convincing enough threat to another country?  Will people have the wherewithal to double-check?

Lots to think about. 

I'm excited about the possibilities of technology, and I believe they're predominantly good.  But, as always, in search of the good, we must acknowledge and be prepared for the bad. 

Economic Allies and Economic Enemies

Last week, I brought up the concept of Economic Freedom. It reminded me of an idea I last shared in 2008, during the housing crisis. 

I noticed how correlated and coordinated worldwide actions were during the housing crisis. During the pandemic, while there was a lot of dissent, there was also a remarkable amount of coordination. 

The concept of economic allies presupposes that we also have economic enemies. It’s easy to construct a theory that countries like Russia and China use financial markets to exert leverage in a nascent form of economic warfare.

It's easy to come up with a theory that suggests we are our own worst enemies. Our innate fear and greed instincts (and how we react to them) tend to lead us down a path of horrifying consequences. This has been evident in recent years, not just in society, but also in the world of business. I am confident that this pattern will persist in the context of Artificial Intelligence, with both its potential benefits and risks.

The butterfly effect theorizes that a butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing on one day can create or impact a rainstorm over Chicago a few days later. Similarly, in a world with extensive global communication and where automated trading programs (and even toasters) can interact with each other from anywhere across the globe, it is not surprising that market movements are becoming larger, faster, and more volatile.

Perhaps governments cooperate and collaborate because they collectively recognize the need for a new form of protection to mitigate the increasing speed, size, and leverage behind market movements.

And we can also extend this idea to other entities beyond governments. It doesn’t have to be limited to traditional markets either; it can include cryptocurrencies or other emerging technologies as well.

It’s worth understanding the currents, but we must also consider the undercurrents and countercurrents. 

Conspiracy theories are rarely healthy or helpful, but maintaining a healthy skepticism is a great survival mechanism.

Hope that helps.

Happy Father's Day 2023

This year, Father's Day was smaller than usual.  My wife, Jennifer, is in Indonesia, and my older son is on the west coast. 

Meanwhile, my younger son, Zach, took me to one of our favorite Asian restaurants with his new Fiancée, Sloane. 

I've been calling her my daughter-in-law since he brought her home (because some things are inevitable and easy to recognize). 

Reflecting on the past year, I'm grateful for my granddaughter (from my married son, Ben, and his wife).  And, I'm also grateful that Zach and Sloane got engaged and started to plan the rest of their lives together (and hopefully more grandchildren for me). 

As a father, having great kids is a double blessing.  On one hand, it's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do.  On the other hand, it's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.  

Of course, I also look back ... and spent some time thinking about my father and his terrific influence on so many lives.  

My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards are met, it is easy to get distracted by other things (and figuring out how to meet the minimum standards for them as well).

He was also my best friend. 

I see so much of him in myself, and in my children, and many of the aphorisms I teach come from him.  I'm grateful that I can still see his impact on the world. 

Hope you had a nice Father's Day weekend too. 

Where Gen Z Gets Financial Advice ...

I recently hired a new research assistant and brought her to a conference where I gave two speeches and a breakout session.

After I spoke, I asked her what she thought, and her answer surprised me. 

She said there were many opportunities for improvement, and she didn't know why I wasn't already doing it. 

She said I ignored the young people in the room ... And that my material, language, and attention were targeted toward older people (like me).

As annoying as it was - she had a point.

Take a look at this survey from Vericast. 

via Vericast

OK, it is just a survey - still, that's staggering information. 

The younger generation is getting advice from places like TikTok and YouTube (decidedly not The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, or even LinkedIn).

While I am on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube (and even TikTok), those are not places I would search for detailed financial advice. 

However, social media is a great place to start conversations - or to gain some perspective or context.  It is even a good place to figure out some questions to get you thinking about your future better.

The wisdom of the crowd is good.  But expert advice is considered "expert" for a reason.  And, often, it makes sense to seek it out specifically. 

I doubt I'm currently reaching many Gen Z'ers ... but if you're reading this ... please expand your sources for getting financial advice beyond TikTok and YouTube.

For the older crowd ... I have found it hard enough to change myself, so I don't often expect to change others.  With that in mind, it may be time to adjust your communication strategy to include TikTok and YouTube.  If you can't change them, you might as well meet them where they are.

I just launched a TikTok channel called BotheringMyBoss. It's run by that research assistant. It's a bit outside of my comfort zone.  But, hopefully, it opens a communication channel with a younger audience.

Let me know what you think.

Is It The News Or Propaganda?

There is nothing wrong with your television.  We will control all that you see and hear. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive.  Enjoy ....

 
The original, from The Outer Limits TV show was: 

There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image; make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the outer limits.

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe, so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

Since the past election cycle, we've seen a massive uptick in distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

To a certain degree, this is understandable and justified. Here is an example of the power of the media focused on a message.  Click to watch.

 

via Courier News

Propaganda has always been an issue, and almost everyone does it; governments, companies, etc. Luckily, it's easier to see today than in the past, but unluckily it's also more pervasive and insidious than before. 

It's to the point where if you watch the news you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news you're uninformed. 

The above segment portrays a rosy picture of Amazon's efforts to protect its workers while delivering essentials to the struggling homebound masses. This comes while Amazon has come under massive fire for removing some of its protections. 

Honestly, I use Amazon and, in my opinion, this isn't a massive breach of trust. News stations have a lot of time to fill, they often have sponsored content.

That being said, it's something to be cognizant of - not necessarily offended by.

Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens. It's becoming even more of an issue with AI-based depictions of presidents in both image and video.

It's a great reminder that what you're seeing and hearing is carefully manufactured, and hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble. 

I think one of the worst consequences of the past few years is the unwillingness of mass swaths of Americans to listen to voices they disagree with. The internet has already created echo chambers, but it's being exacerbated by vitriol. As a result, I think we're seeing the fringe of both parties move further away from the middle. 

What do you think?

A Look Back At Simon Sinek's 'Start With Why'

In 2009, Simon Sinek talked to my EO Chapter, and then came to my office to speak with our team.  This was right at the beginning of his meteoric rise, two short months after the release of his famous book "Start With Why." 

Here's the article I wrote in 2009:

___________________

Inspiration is stronger than persuasion.  It gives people a sense of purpose and belonging that has little to do with external incentives or benefits.

Simon Sinek, who is quite charismatic and well-spoken, is delivering this message to a rapidly growing fan base. 

My team thought Simon was inspiring, engaging, and insightful.

You can watch a short video that introduces his material below. 

In addition, you can explore more of his ideas in his book,
Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.

An Example of Finding the Right Person for a Job.

Who do you believe will do a better job, someone who takes a job because of the salary and benefits ... or someone truly inspired to accomplish the job's purpose? 

Phrased that way, of course, you know the answer.  Still, how can you leverage this to better select customers and employees?

For example, Simon uses the story of Sir Ernest Shackleton to illustrate this concept.  Shackleton was preparing to lead the first expedition across Antarctica in 1914.  Legend has it that when seeking crew members for his journey, Shackleton placed the following ad in a newspaper:

"MEN WANTED FOR HAZARDOUS JOURNEY. SMALL WAGES, BITTER COLD, LONG MONTHS OF COMPLETE DARKNESS, CONSTANT DANGER, SAFE RETURN DOUBTFUL. HONOUR AND RECOGNITION IN CASE OF SUCCESS.
- SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON"

When the expedition became stuck in the ice and could not be rescued for 22 months, not a single man was lost.  The reason Simon gave for their unlikely survival was that Shackleton hired survivors that could deal with the situation and were aligned with the mission and purpose.

Can you imagine writing an ad like that to attract the right people to your cause?

Watch This Video.

Here is a video of Simon speaking at a TED Conference.  It is an excellent intro to his stuff. 

Other Resources:

• Here is a link to Simon's Blog.  (2023 Note: this now links to his old blog, which is poorly formatted but interesting to see.  His new website/blog can be found here.)
• Here is a link to Videos of Simon.
• Here is a link to an article on why to know someone else's Why.  (PDF Version)
• Here is a link to Simon's Book: Start with Why.

_____________________

It's now more than ten years later, and Simon is one of the most prominent leaders in leadership development and has published five books, to much acclaim. 

Part of his success is the charisma and pith with which Simon speaks and writes - but a large part is his focus on what makes humans human.  He's not preaching a leadership mantra focused on the bottom line and revenue; he's focused on the aspects of human nature that don't change.  He's focused on purpose and the elements of leadership that apply to everyone - not just CEOs. 

As we move into an era of increased volatility – both in markets and business - these leadership principles will become more important. 

Understanding your "WHY" is vital if you want to make a difference (and not be replaced by an AI). 

If you haven't read any of his books, they're all good, but I suggest "Start With Why" and "The Infinite Game."

What's In The Box? The Consequences of Labeling

“Words can be twisted into any shape. Promises can be made to lull the heart and seduce the soul. In the final analysis, words mean nothing.
They are labels we give things in an effort to wrap our puny little brains around their underlying natures,
when ninety-nine percent of the time the totality of the reality is an entirely different beast.
The wisest man is the silent one. Examine his actions. Judge him by them.”
― Karen Marie Moning

The current socio-political climate has me thinking about the consequences of labeling things, creating boxes, and simplifying ideas into news-ready headlines.

via Se7en

With more news sources than ever and less attention span, you see ideas packaged into attention-grabbing parts.  The focus isn't on education or the issues, but on getting the click, making your stay on their page longer, and sending you to a new article utterly unrelated to why you clicked on the page.

Complex issues are simplified – not even into their most basic forms – but instead into their most divisive forms ... because there's no money in the middle.

 

via Quote Investigator

The amplified voices are those on the fringe of the average constituents' beliefs – precisely because those are the ones who are often the most outspoken.

Issues that should be bipartisan have been made "us" versus "them," "liberal" versus "conservative," or "right" versus "wrong." The algorithms of most of these sites create echo chambers that increase radicalization and decrease news comprehension.  Identity politics have gotten so strong that you see families breaking apart and friend groups disintegrating ... because people can't imagine sharing a room with someone they don't share the same values as. 

 

via BrainyQuotes.

In psychology, heuristics are mental models that help you make decisions easier.  They're a starting point to save mental bandwidth, allowing you to spend more brain cycles on the important stuff.

That's a great use of "boxes" and "simplification"… but it shouldn't preclude deeper thought on important issues. 

In an ideal world, we would all have the bandwidth to view each case of an issue as a whole issue within itself.  Most things are nuanced, and the "correct" answer changes as you change your vantage point.

I recognize that's not realistic.

Instead, I encourage you to remember to continue to think and learn ... even about things you already know.  Confirmation Bias is one of the more common forms of cognitive bias.  Here is an infographic that lists 50 common cognitive biases.  Click to explore further.

via VisualCapitalist

Important issues deserve more research.  New insights happen between the boundaries of what we know and don't.  Knowledge comes from truly understanding the border between what you are certain and uncertain about. 

I challenge you to look beyond the headlines, slogans, and talking points you like most.  Look for dissenting opinions and understand what's driving their dissent.  Are they really blind or dumb (or are their value systems just weighted differently)?

Not everything needs to be boxed.  Not everything needs to be simple.  You should explore things and people outside of your comfort zone and look to see things from their point of view ... not your own. 

Applying This Lesson  

“I am ashamed to think how easily we capitulate to badges and names, to large societies and dead institutions.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance

I love learning a lesson in one space and applying it to other spaces.  It's one of the cool things about AI.  An algorithm can learn rules in the construction space that may help in the medicine or trading space.  Everything's a lesson if you let it be.

In that vein, the lesson on labeling also applies to yourself and your business.  Don't get me wrong - naming things is powerful.  It can help make the intangible tangible.  However, don't let the label (or your perception of the label) stop you from achieving something greater. 

Many things are true because we believe them to be, but when we let go of past beliefs, the impossible becomes possible, and the invisible becomes visible.  

We are our choices ... and you can make choices today that change who you are (and what you or your business is capable of) tomorrow. 

Hope that helps – Onwards!

Asking The Right Questions

There’s immense power in asking the right questions. 

Asking the right questions is often more advantageous than having the answer to the question asked.

Asking the right questions is crucial as it facilitates the discovery of appropriate answers, demonstrates progress, and creates meaningful momentum, regardless of the actual answers obtained.

I shot this short video on the power of asking the right questions.  Check it out. 

 

Asking the right questions demonstrates the power of framing, as it allows for a different interpretation and digestion of information.  Even reframing the same question can have a significant impact.  For example, “How do I compete with ChatGPT or other AIs?” vs. “How can I leverage AI to automate tasks I don’t want to do?”

In my experience, when asking someone what they want, often their response revolves around what they don’t want.  However, reframing the obstacle as the path forward makes it easier to uncover the “hidden” opportunity.

You have control over the meaning you assign to things and the emotions they evoke in you.  These distinctions are what separate feeling “sad” vs. “happy” – or “feeling like a victim” vs. “feeling in control of your destiny”.  The power to control your perception determines whether life happens “to you” or “for you”.

When faced with a problem, a mindset of “it can’t be done” can be limiting.  For better results, reframe that "problem" as a "challenge" that can be done – just not in the way it’s currently being approached.

The most important advances in society were impossible until they weren’t.  For example, imagine telling someone in the Middle Ages that you could communicate with people around the globe (in real-time) while simultaneously seeing their faces and sharing documents.  They’d try you as a witch faster than you could say, “Zoom!” 

In the technology industry, the term “Moonshot” refers to a bold and groundbreaking project that was once considered impossible (like landing on the moon).

Success is often a function of using Moonshots to set direction, asking the right questions, being willing to see things differently, and finding a way to move in the right direction while gaining capabilities and confidence.  As long as you are doing those things, the trick is to keep going until you get there.  The result is inevitable if you do those things and don’t give up.

Onwards!