Capitalogix

Billions (with a B)

Kylie Jenner was recently named the world's youngest "self-made" billionaire by Forbes. 

There was a lot of controversy over the title "self'-made" ... Regardless, her accomplishments are impressive. Jenner is an example of a different form of intelligence and hard work (and the power of the Kardashian media empire).

Clearly, Americans are fascinated with the idea of billionaires as an extension of the American dream.

Here's the world's "official" richest people. 

 

via Forbes

The actual data is interesting. The US has about doubled in Billionaires since 200.  Meanwhile, China has grown from 1 Forbes list billionaire to over 300. In that same time, the US GDP grew from approximately 10.5 trillion  USD to 21.5 trillion, and China's GDP went from about 1.3 trillion USD to over 13 trillion. 

Global GDP has increased by 2.5x since 2001.  Consequently, most people in the world are richer than they were back then. 

How many billionaires are there ... and how many in America? Forbes has an interactive chart to answer those and many more questions.,  Click the chart below to see the data. 

 

via Forbes

The issue with this chart - and any chart on this subject -  is that the data is incomplete and suspect for a variety of reasons.  For example, think about the assumptions made on the amount of money tied up in a variety of assets like private companies, art, and real estate. 

In addition, there are many billionaires who don't want to be tracked. For example, the list only shows  Saudi Arabia having 20 billionaires.  Likewise, it is estimated that India has over $500 billion in undocumented wealth (with some estimates putting it as high as  $1.5 trillion.)

Not a bad list to be on!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 24th, 2019

via KDNuggets

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Jeff Bezos Predictions from 20 Years Ago that Were Right on the Money. (BusinessInsider)
• Imagining the Smart Cities of 2050. (SingularityHub)
• Secrets of the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List. (CNN)
• How Designers Engineer Luck into Video Games. (Nautilus)
• CRISPR Gene Editing: Why We Need Slow Science. (The Conversation)

 

Trading Links:

• Why Companies like Lyft and Uber are Going Public without Having Profits. (Re/code)
• Are Animal Spirits Making a Comeback? (Bloomberg)
• This is What the Average American Spends in a Day. (Fool)
• The AI-Art Gold Rush is Here. (The Atlantic)
• Who Wants to See a Movie about High-Frequency Trading? High-Frequency Traders. (Wall Street Journal)

 

 

March Madness: The Quest For The Holy Grail

March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days. As you could guess - most brackets have already busted. Louisville lost, UC Irvine won, and Duke barely weathered UCF's onslaught. 

 

via FanSided

Lots of skill, lots of adrenaline and lots of natural talents (including amazing physical talents).  Here is a picture of 7'6 Tacko Fall. Tacko still looks taller than his opponents even when kneeling. 

via UCF Basketball

The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading.  These are all fertile grounds for emotion, biases, and statistics. 

The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things)  ... For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket is 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (2.4 trillion based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account rank).  It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket. Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.

Here's some more crazy March Madness Stats: 

• 60 million tournament brackets were completed
• Companies expect $4 Billion of corporate losses due to employees tracking games
• The highest paid NCAA coach, Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, makes a salary of $8,982,325
• It's expected to create $10 Billion in gambling (twice as much as the Super Bowl)

 

via Duke University

Feeding the Madness

"Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." - Phil Jackson

 

In 2017, I highlighted 3 people that were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness. A 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world.  None of them had the same success even a year later.

Finding an edge is hard - maintaining an edge is even harder.

That's not to say there aren't edges to be found. 

Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some people use gut feel, some base their decisions current and historical performance, and some use predictive models. You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision. That makes you feel powerful. But knowing the history, their ranks, etc. can be helpful in making an educated guess and they can also lead you astray. 

The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading. As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't. We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset. 

You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or your musical loving co-worker.

In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses. 

The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased. Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear cut answer. We don't have the answers to "who will win" and we don't have the answer to "what makes a perfect prediction". 

Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint. People make decisions on many factors - sometimes irrational ones - and that creates inefficiencies & complexities. It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them - but they're there to be found. 

In trading, that's where AI and advanced math come in - taking away our biases and identifying inefficiencies humans miss.

Can machine learning also help in March Madness?

“The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting - that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” - Tom Griffiths

The data is there. Over 100,000 NCAA regular season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season. There are plenty of questions to be asked on that data that may add an extra edge. 

That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success. It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports - hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds. 

Two lessons can be learned from this:

1. People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
2. Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems

 

Something to think about. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 17th, 2019

The US grounded the Boeing 737 Max after similarities between two crashes. It's good they did, safety first, but it definitely caused some headaches coming back from Saskatchewan.  There's an interesting thought experiment here to understand the complexities that the airlines had to solve.

Imagine a 737 holds 200 people and does 4 or 5 flights a day. American has 24 737s in its fleet. That means each day ~24,000 people are displaced on American Airlines alone. They're replacing those planes with smaller regional jets – meaning more flights, more small airports, and more delays. The logistical/supply chain dynamics are a nightmare. 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• DARPA's New AI, Machine Learning 'Breakthrough'. (Realcleardefense)
• Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life inside Tesla's Production Hell. (Wired)
• The Psychology behind Costco's Free Samples. (The Atlantic)
• The Fall of Rome and the Lessons for America. (Time)
• How Timeboxing Works and Why It Will Make You More Productive. (HBR)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Despite Store Closings, There's Still One Blockbuster Store Left in the World. (USAToday)
• Oracle's Larry Ellison Has a $1 Billion Stake in Tesla. (TheStreet)
• Mansa Musa: the Richest Man Who Ever Lived. (BBC)
• Amazon Go Cashierless Stores are Coming to Airports. (VentureBeat)
• Millions of Japanese Homes are Abandoned, and Owners are Giving Them Away for Free. (BusinessInsider)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 10th, 2019

I was in Toronto this week – and it was COLD!

Daylight Savings Time just springed forward ... and here in Texas, it is getting warmer.  Perhaps winter is over?

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links

• The World's Fastest Supercomputer Breaks an AI Record. (Wired)
• Study Shows Parrots Can Pass Classic Test of Intelligence. (Phys)
• Huge Spider Drags Opossum across Amazon Rainforest Floor in Horrifying Footage. (Video)
• H.I.V. is Reported Cured in a Second Patient, a Milestone in the Global AIDS Epidemic. (New York Times)

 

Trading Links

• Bill Gates Reveals the 10 Breakthrough Technologies that Will Change the World in 2019. (Forbes)
• Artificial Intelligence Regulation Will Be Impossible. (Forbes)
• Scientists Just Pulled CO2 from Air and Turned It into Coal. (Forbes)
• Map: The Most Valuable Brand in Each Country in 2018. (VisualCapitalist)
• Who's the Richest Owner in the NFL? Cowboys' Jerry Jones Doesn't Even Crack the Top Three. (CBS Sports)

 

The Relationship Between Stock Exchanges and Indices

Last year, I wrote about how the top 16 exchanges each have a market capitalization above $1 trillion.

That's a staggering amount of money being traded; but, how much of is it traded well?

82% of funds trailed their respective benchmarks over 15 years, and Indexes consistently beat stock pickers. 

With the NYSE and NASDAQ being the two biggest stock exchanges, looking at them can provide a lot of insight. The NYSE has 2058 companies, and the NASDAQ has 2588. 

 

via VisualCapitalist

 

With active managers' struggle to beat the market, many investors have moved to index-tracking funds (as of last year, investors withdrew $1.2 trillion from actively managed U.S. funds since 2007, according to Morningstar). 

My prediction, active management becomes a lot easier with AI and machine learning. You'll be hearing more about that from us soon. 

Funding Fintech's Future

I think it’s clear that Fintech is getting a lot of attention from the press, investors, and talent.  It is a hot space!

Here is a chart showing the Fintech companies that got the most funding recently.

 

via howmuch

Rapidly maturing sectors are payment processing, personal finance, and blockchain/crypto.

• Payment Processing - Stripe received $685 million in funding last year and is valued at over $20B
• Personal Finance - This is a broad market, but we're seeing the "average joe" empowered to make smarter personal finance decisions with companies like Robinhood, Acorns, and Credit Karma. Credit Karma raised $869M and is valued at approximately $4B
• Blockchain - While crypto is currently out of favor for many, blockchain is still an exciting prospect. Opendoor is bypassing real estate agents and brokers to disrupt the housing market. Receiving over $1B in funding last year, it is currently valued at $3.7B.

These are the sectors getting the most Fintech funding now (with payment processing the clear leader).

In my opinion, real disruption is brewing in the personal finance & Wall Street sectors ... and funding is ramping up there as we speak.

This Fintech sector reminds me of biotech.   Solutions have to be more mature and fully-tested before unleashing them on the public.  But winners will Win!

Wall Street is one of the smaller sections in this infographic.  Nonetheless, I think you'll be reading a lot more about this space soon.  Here are some of the companies worth noting.

• Symphony  does secure communications for companies like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. It helps with internal communication, and client-centric communication, and has various bots and apps to decrease decision time. 
• Addepar claims to "power the global financial system".  It's a performance reporting platform meant to provide better insights, and connect assets to goals. 
• Carta does equity management; helping private & public companies manage their cap tables, investments, and equity plans. 

Not seen on these lists are all the smaller companies at the beginning of their innovation cycle, and the companies doing their best to stay under the radar. More competitors and more opportunities mean more reason to keep your cards close to your chest. 

The funding cycle is always two steps behind the innovation cycle, which means ideas we've been hearing about from the likes of Gartner will be seeing increased publicity soon. 

I think 2019  will be a great year for innovation. What about you?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 17th, 2019

NASA's Mars Opportunity Rover has officially lost contact with earth after a fierce dust storm. Its last message was "My battery is getting low and it's getting dark." The rover's original mission was scheduled for 90 days ... it lasted 14 years. 

 

via XKCD

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links

• A Quantum Future Awaits. (Science)
• Can We Make Artificial Intelligence Ethical? (Washington Post)
• Life's Secret Ingredient: A Radical Theory of What Makes Things Alive. (NewScientist)
• What Does "Dead" Mean? the Debate Continues Some 50 Years after Harvard Defined Death. (Forbes)
• Scientists Have Built a Real Star Trek 'Replicator' that Builds Objects with Light. (ScienceAlert)

 

Trading Links

• Warning: Stocks Have Only Been Stretched this Thin Once in the past 150 Years. (MarketWatch)
• From the Year When Nothing Worked in the Financial Markets to the Month When Everything Did. (CNBC)
• Mark Zuckerberg Adds $6.2 Billion in a Day, Vaulting to No. 5 Richest in World. (OCRegister)
• American Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Has Spent $700M on Personal Real Estate in Five Years. (CNW)
• There's a New Movie Coming out about High-speed Trading on Wall Street, and It Looks Bonkers. (BizInsider)

 

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 27th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links

• Giving Algorithms a Sense of Uncertainty Could Make Them More Ethical.(TechReview)
• How Musicians Communicate Non-Verbally While Performing.(PsychCentral)
• Welcome to the World's Largest Gathering of Humans. (NPR)
• The Evolutionary Advantages of an Addictive Personality. (Scientific American)
• George Orwell Predicted Cameras Would Watch Us in Our Homes; He Never Imagined We'd Gladly Buy and Install Them Ourselves.(OpenCulture)

 

 

Trading Links

• The Weaponization of Artificial Intelligence. (Forbes)
• Apple Named 'World's Most Admired Company' for 12Th Year in a Row.(MacRumors)
• The Government Shutdown May Ripple through the IPO Market for Months. (Quartz)
• Billionaire Ray Dalio Shares a 3-Step Formula for Anyone to Start Investing.(CNBC)
• Ex-Goldman Banker Describes Finance as "Dark Art," Advocates Running McDonalds Franchise Instead. (News)

 

A Look Back at "The Crazy Ones"

I remember being mesmerized the first time I saw Apple Computers iconic "Crazy Ones" video as part of their Think Different campaign.

Steve Jobs originally recorded a version of "The Crazy Ones" himself, but chose to release the Richard Dreyfuss narrated version. 

 

via YouTube

Here is the text version of the script.

 

Here's to the crazy ones.
The misfits.
The rebels.
The troublemakers.
The round pegs in the square holes.

The ones who see things differently.

They're not fond of rules.
And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them, disagree with them,
glorify or vilify them.
About the only thing you can't do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They push the human race forward.

While some may see them as the crazy ones,
we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

    –     © 1997 Apple Computer, Inc.

Click here for extra material about the video and campaign. 

I think it has held up pretty well, and I had this piece of art commissioned for my office. 

There's a lot to be said for carving your own path, for pushing past perceived limits and accomplishing something hard to ignore.