Everyone knows that children are our future. They're the next generation of innovators, entrepreneurs, and workers. Countries that are having a natural decrease in population due to families not having children will likely find themselves becoming less important on the geopolitical stage.
While the future is often hard to predict, here is easy “prediction” (that is much less of a prediction than it is simple math). In order to predict how many 18-year-olds there will be in a particular country in fifteen years, simply count the 3-year-olds there now. Yes, there will be some death or migration … but it is an easy way to get a sense of some important mega-trends.
With that said, the U.S. saw many states with more deaths than births in 2020 and 2021.
So, where are children being born?
India, China, and Africa all are seeing massive population growth. America is still net positive. It's also worth noting that India and China are topping the list because they already have such large populations. Their birth rates are actually slightly below average.
On a longer term scale, it's also worth noting that population growth has been declining since the 1960s. Partly due to education, wealth, and the move from rural to urban living.
Slowing population growth means a larger portion of the population is older. As median age increases, there are lots of potential economic consequences.
It's an interesting compounding of consequences.
We'll see if the countries with the largest population growth have the economy and infrastructure to support that growth.
The New Era of Energy
A couple of weeks ago, I talked about oil production. This week, I want to look at the current energy landscape.
Over the past several decades, there has been a massive shift in how we produce and consume energy. This has been driven by the tech boom - as well as by climate awareness.
The practical realities of widespread tech adoption directly impact energy consumption. For example, there are now over 7 billion people with smartphones. As the population (and the number of gadgets and tech we use) grows, logically, so does our energy consumption.
Luckily, we're also getting better at powering them.
On a different front, oil is still a meaningful and vital part of the energy ecosystem … but, now, it's being supplemented by multiple renewables.
Over the last decade, investment in green technologies has helped the cost of renewable energies drop precipitously.
That spurred a different set of products and use cases. For example, we've seen the number of electric cars grow exponentially. In 2011, there were approximately 70,000 EV units in the world. Now there are around 16.5 million.
This isn't a commentary on the environmental benefit of renewables; it is an observation about the direction energy is heading.
And, just like with AI, despite being a space that's existed for a long time, it is still in the "early adoption" phase.
Based on estimations, the IEA projects an 8x growth in EV by 2050. This also means that we will use an increasing amount of batteries and rare metals. Currently, China controls the supply chains and critical resource constraints.
If our goal is to be energy independent, we have a long way to go ... Nonetheless, recognize that this creates massive business and investment opportunities.
Onwards!
Posted at 08:34 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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