Capitalogix

The Shape of Change

Change is the only constant.

The World Government Summit put together a helpful interactive website where you can test your knowledge on the trajectory of key statistical indicators for the development of society over the past decade.  It is more challenging than I imagined.  Here is the text from their opening screen.

Can we estimate how much the world has changed in a decade? Or do our own experiences impact the perception of progress? This work challenges the assumptions we make about how key statistical indicators regarding Health, the Environment, or Education evolve through the years. 

- The Shape of Change via the World Government Summit

You can click on the image below to test your knowledge of key issues shaping the world (like oil dependency, pollution,  literacy, economic freedom, etc.) by answering some questions at "The Shape of Change."

The Shape of Change via the World Government

It also includes a table that tracks year-over-year changes in various indicators. 

 

The Shape of Change via the World Government

The first part is like a guessing game where you try to predict the direction and the rate of change.

The second part, which involves reviewing the data table, was much more illustrative. 

Were there any numbers that surprised you?

Speed Matters: The Pace of Success

Capitalogix started in my home.  The first employee sat at a tiny desk behind me.  Their job was to exit the trades I entered.  This was an early attempt to avoid the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that humans bring to the business of trading.

We started to grow ... and somehow got to 23 people working in my home.  It literally overtook my office, dining room, and the entire upstairs.  Neighbors noticed (and expressed their displeasure).

Looking back, it seems crazy (and my wife seems Saintly).  But somehow, at the time, it felt natural. 

Incubating the company in my home, and growing it the way we did, resulted in a closeness (a feeling much like family) that pays dividends, even today.

Speed matters ... both fast and slow.  

I shot a video on the subject.  Check it out. 

 

There is a concept in business expressed by the phrase "measure twice and cut once."  It's much easier to do something the right way from the beginning rather than trying to fix it after you mess it up. 

It saves time and creates a better end result. 

Beginning with the end in mind is powerful.  I often spend what looks like "too much" time imagining the bigger future.  What will things look like when we are ten times bigger?  Who will we serve?  What dangers will keep me up at night?  What opportunities will we be trying to attract or capture?  What strengths will give us confidence?  Who will we be collaborating with ... and about what?  It helps build a roadmap that makes it easier to understand whether particular activities are aligned with our future (or just something we are doing now). 

I prefer to optimize on the longer term rather than the shorter term.  That isn't always possible or practical, but that is my preference when it is.

Pace is important - and a focus on "what's the best next step" is an important driver at Capitalogix, but sometimes in order to go fast, you have to go slow.  You may miss out on something, but the ultimate payoff is often worth it. 

It's a good lesson for personal growth as well.  There is no right timeline.  No one size fits all.  Take your time.  Find your path.

 

Anna Vital via Adioma

Hope that helps. 

A Look Back At Simon Sinek's 'Start With Why'

In 2009, Simon Sinek talked to my EO Chapter, and then came to my office to speak with our team.  This was right at the beginning of his meteoric rise, two short months after the release of his famous book "Start With Why." 

Here's the article I wrote in 2009:

___________________

Inspiration is stronger than persuasion.  It gives people a sense of purpose and belonging that has little to do with external incentives or benefits.

Simon Sinek, who is quite charismatic and well-spoken, is delivering this message to a rapidly growing fan base. 

My team thought Simon was inspiring, engaging, and insightful.

You can watch a short video that introduces his material below. 

In addition, you can explore more of his ideas in his book,
Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.

An Example of Finding the Right Person for a Job.

Who do you believe will do a better job, someone who takes a job because of the salary and benefits ... or someone truly inspired to accomplish the job's purpose? 

Phrased that way, of course, you know the answer.  Still, how can you leverage this to better select customers and employees?

For example, Simon uses the story of Sir Ernest Shackleton to illustrate this concept.  Shackleton was preparing to lead the first expedition across Antarctica in 1914.  Legend has it that when seeking crew members for his journey, Shackleton placed the following ad in a newspaper:

"MEN WANTED FOR HAZARDOUS JOURNEY. SMALL WAGES, BITTER COLD, LONG MONTHS OF COMPLETE DARKNESS, CONSTANT DANGER, SAFE RETURN DOUBTFUL. HONOUR AND RECOGNITION IN CASE OF SUCCESS.
- SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON"

When the expedition became stuck in the ice and could not be rescued for 22 months, not a single man was lost.  The reason Simon gave for their unlikely survival was that Shackleton hired survivors that could deal with the situation and were aligned with the mission and purpose.

Can you imagine writing an ad like that to attract the right people to your cause?

Watch This Video.

Here is a video of Simon speaking at a TED Conference.  It is an excellent intro to his stuff. 

Other Resources:

• Here is a link to Simon's Blog.  (2023 Note: this now links to his old blog, which is poorly formatted but interesting to see.  His new website/blog can be found here.)
• Here is a link to Videos of Simon.
• Here is a link to an article on why to know someone else's Why.  (PDF Version)
• Here is a link to Simon's Book: Start with Why.

_____________________

It's now more than ten years later, and Simon is one of the most prominent leaders in leadership development and has published five books, to much acclaim. 

Part of his success is the charisma and pith with which Simon speaks and writes - but a large part is his focus on what makes humans human.  He's not preaching a leadership mantra focused on the bottom line and revenue; he's focused on the aspects of human nature that don't change.  He's focused on purpose and the elements of leadership that apply to everyone - not just CEOs. 

As we move into an era of increased volatility – both in markets and business - these leadership principles will become more important. 

Understanding your "WHY" is vital if you want to make a difference (and not be replaced by an AI). 

If you haven't read any of his books, they're all good, but I suggest "Start With Why" and "The Infinite Game."

Let's Talk AI Ethics

It's no secret that I've been a proponent of the proliferation and adoption of AI. I've been the CEO of AI companies since the early 90s, but it was the early 2000s when I realized what the future had in store.

A few years ago, in anticipation of where we are today, I started participating in discussions about the need for governance, ethical guidelines, and response frameworks for AI (and other exponential technologies). 

Last week, I said that we shouldn't slow down the progress of generative AI ... and I stand by that, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't be working hastily to provide bumper rails to keep AI in check. 

There are countless ethical concerns we should be talking about: 

1. Bias and Discrimination - AI systems are only as objective as the data they are trained on. If the data is biased, the AI system will also be biased. Not only does that create discrimination, but it also leaves systems more susceptible. 
2. Privacy and Data Protection - AI systems are capable of collecting vast amounts of personal data, and if this data is misused or mishandled, it could have serious consequences for individuals' privacy and security. The security of these systems needs to be managed, but also where and how they get their data. 
3. Accountability, Explainability, and Transparency - As AI systems become increasingly complex and autonomous, it can be difficult to determine who is responsible when something goes wrong, not to mention the difficulty in understanding how public-facing systems arrive at their decisions. Explainability becomes more important for generative AI models as they're used to interface with anyone and everyone. 
4. Human Agency and Control - When AI systems become more sophisticated and autonomous, there is fear about their autonomy ... what amount of human control is necessary, and how do we prevent "malevolent" AI? Within human agency and control, we have two sub-topics. First, is job displacement ... do we prevent AI from taking certain jobs as one potential way to preserve jobs and the economy, or do we look at other options like universal basic income. We also have to ask where international governance comes in, and how we ensure that ethical standards are upheld to prevent misuse or abuse of the technology by bad actors.
5. Safety and Reliability - Ensuring the safety and reliability of AI systems is important, particularly in areas such as transportation and healthcare where the consequences of errors can be severe. Setting standards of performance is important, especially considering the outsized response when an AI system does commit an "error". Think about how many car crashes are caused by human error and negligence... and then think about the media coverage when a self-driving car causes one. If we want AI to be adopted and trusted, it's going to need to be held to much higher standards. 

These are all real and present concerns that we should be aware of. However, it's not as simple as creating increasingly tight chains to limit AI. We have to be judicious in our applications of regulation and oversight. We intrinsically know the dangers of overregulation - of limiting freedoms. Not only will it stifle creativity and output, but it will only encourage bad actors to go further beyond what the law-abiding creators can do.  

If you want to see one potential AI risk management framework, here's a proposition by the National Institute of Standards and Technology - it's called AI RMF 1.0. It's a nice jump-off point for you to think about internal controls and preparation for impending regulation.  To be one step more explicit ... if you are a business owner or a tech creator, you should be getting a better handle on your own internal controls, as well as anticipating external influence. 

In conclusion, there is a clear need for AI ethics to ensure that this transformative technology is used in a responsible and ethical manner. There are many issues we need to address as AI becomes more ubiquitous and powerful. That's not an excuse to slow down, because slowing down only lets others get ahead. If you're only scared of AI, you're not paying enough attention. You should be excited.

Hope that helps.

Yield of Dreams: Laughing Your Way To Financial Freedom

The movie Field of Dreams came out the year my first son was born. If you haven't seen it, it's a fantastic movie. 

Whether you’ve seen it (or not), you might want to see Charlie Epstein’s a one-man play called Yield of Dreams. 

I put together a quick video on why you should watch it:

>> Click Here to check it out

Many of the people who read my blog, or are subscribed to my newsletter, are either entrepreneurs or in the financial space. While Charlie Epstein moonlights as an actor/comedian, his day job is in financial services. He's incredibly sharp, very knowledgeable ... and yes, a little quirky. 

But that quirkiness is what makes him funny - so much so that you'll be captivated long enough to gain some real value. Charlie does an excellent job teaching people how to do practical things to ensure they have enough money when they retire to live a good life.

More importantly, he helps you think about your mindsets and what you truly want, so you can live the life you've always dreamed of and deserved. And even though I didn't think I needed to learn anything new, I gained a ton of practical value – and you probably will too.

As a bonus, half of the proceeds go toward supporting vets with PTSD.

There aren't many people (or "offers") I'd feel comfortable plugging, but this is one of them. As well, many of the other people I would put in front of you (like Dan Sullivan, Peter Diamandis, and Mike Koenigs) love Charlie as much as I do. 

via Yield of Dreams

So, here's the part I copied from Charlie: In this one-man show you'll discover how to

• Work less while making more than you ever have before
• Make more progress towards your dreams in one year than most people do in ten
• Step into the biggest, boldest and most confident version of yourself
• Stop worrying about money and start living your dream life

So, if any of that interests you I highly recommend you sign up. You only have a limited time to do so. 

>> Just click here to learn more about Yield of Dreams

Tech Over The Long Run

Humans are wired to think locally and linearly ... because that's what it took to survive in a pre-industrial age. However, that leaves most of us very bad at predicting technology and its impact on our future. 

To put the future of technology in perspective, it's helpful to look at the history of technology to help understand what an amazing era we live in. 

Our World In Data put together a great chart that shows the entire history of humanity in relation to innovation. 

Max Roser via ourworldindata

3.4 million years ago, our ancestors supposedly started using tools. 2.4 million years later they harnessed fire. 43,000 years ago (almost a million years later) we developed the first instrument, a flute. 

That's an insane amount of time. Compare that to this:

In 1903, the Wright Brothers first took flight ... 66 years later, we were on the moon. 

That's less than a blink in the history of humankind, and yet we're still increasing speed. 

Technology is a snowball rolling down a mountain, picking up steam, and now it's an avalanche being driven by AI. 

But innovation isn't only driven by scientists. It's driven by people like you or me having a vision and making it into a reality. 

Even though I'm the CEO of an AI company, I don't build artificial intelligence myself ... but I can envision a bigger future and communicate that to people who can. I also can use tools that help me automate and innovate things that help free me to focus on more important ways to create value. 

The point is that you can't let the perfect get in the way of the good.  AI's impact is inevitable.  You don't have to wait to see where the train's going ... you should be boarding. 

Onwards! 

What's In The Box? The Consequences of Labeling

“Words can be twisted into any shape. Promises can be made to lull the heart and seduce the soul. In the final analysis, words mean nothing.
They are labels we give things in an effort to wrap our puny little brains around their underlying natures,
when ninety-nine percent of the time the totality of the reality is an entirely different beast.
The wisest man is the silent one. Examine his actions. Judge him by them.”
― Karen Marie Moning

The current socio-political climate has me thinking about the consequences of labeling things, creating boxes, and simplifying ideas into news-ready headlines.

via Se7en

With more news sources than ever and less attention span, you see ideas packaged into attention-grabbing parts.  The focus isn't on education or the issues, but on getting the click, making your stay on their page longer, and sending you to a new article utterly unrelated to why you clicked on the page.

Complex issues are simplified – not even into their most basic forms – but instead into their most divisive forms ... because there's no money in the middle.

 

via Quote Investigator

The amplified voices are those on the fringe of the average constituents' beliefs – precisely because those are the ones who are often the most outspoken.

Issues that should be bipartisan have been made "us" versus "them," "liberal" versus "conservative," or "right" versus "wrong." The algorithms of most of these sites create echo chambers that increase radicalization and decrease news comprehension.  Identity politics have gotten so strong that you see families breaking apart and friend groups disintegrating ... because people can't imagine sharing a room with someone they don't share the same values as. 

 

via BrainyQuotes.

In psychology, heuristics are mental models that help you make decisions easier.  They're a starting point to save mental bandwidth, allowing you to spend more brain cycles on the important stuff.

That's a great use of "boxes" and "simplification"… but it shouldn't preclude deeper thought on important issues. 

In an ideal world, we would all have the bandwidth to view each case of an issue as a whole issue within itself.  Most things are nuanced, and the "correct" answer changes as you change your vantage point.

I recognize that's not realistic.

Instead, I encourage you to remember to continue to think and learn ... even about things you already know.  Confirmation Bias is one of the more common forms of cognitive bias.  Here is an infographic that lists 50 common cognitive biases.  Click to explore further.

via VisualCapitalist

Important issues deserve more research.  New insights happen between the boundaries of what we know and don't.  Knowledge comes from truly understanding the border between what you are certain and uncertain about. 

I challenge you to look beyond the headlines, slogans, and talking points you like most.  Look for dissenting opinions and understand what's driving their dissent.  Are they really blind or dumb (or are their value systems just weighted differently)?

Not everything needs to be boxed.  Not everything needs to be simple.  You should explore things and people outside of your comfort zone and look to see things from their point of view ... not your own. 

Applying This Lesson  

“I am ashamed to think how easily we capitulate to badges and names, to large societies and dead institutions.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance

I love learning a lesson in one space and applying it to other spaces.  It's one of the cool things about AI.  An algorithm can learn rules in the construction space that may help in the medicine or trading space.  Everything's a lesson if you let it be.

In that vein, the lesson on labeling also applies to yourself and your business.  Don't get me wrong - naming things is powerful.  It can help make the intangible tangible.  However, don't let the label (or your perception of the label) stop you from achieving something greater. 

Many things are true because we believe them to be, but when we let go of past beliefs, the impossible becomes possible, and the invisible becomes visible.  

We are our choices ... and you can make choices today that change who you are (and what you or your business is capable of) tomorrow. 

Hope that helps – Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 19th, 2023

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Listen to Understand, Not to Respond. (FlowResearchCollective)
• 9 Habits of Creative Genius. (WayneDyer)
• OverHyped and Never Delivered: A Brief History of Innovations that Weren't. (BigThink)
• Introducing the AI Mirror Test, Which Very Smart People Keep Failing. (TheVerge)
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Frets Over 'Potentially Scary A.I. Tools and How People of the Future Will View Us.' (Fortune)

 

Trading Links:

• Warren Buffett Just Sent a Subtle But Terrifying Signal to Investors. (MotleyFool)
• The Fed Minutes May Reveal a Steep Rise in Rates on the Horizon. (SeekingAlpha)
• The Stock Market Has Been Flipped Upside Down. (Markets)
• IMF: World Economic Outlook is Starting to Recover. (WEForum)
• The Metric that Shows Why the World's Three Biggest Economies Could Be in Serious Trouble. (MarketWatch)

 

Time's Ticking On The Doomsday Clock

The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the biggest existential risks to humanity includes:

1. Nuclear War: The threat of nuclear weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not properly regulated and controlled.

5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.

Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

via flowingdata

The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act.  We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges.  With collaboration from the brightest minds across the world and private industry, we have the ability to solve even the world's most significant problems.

If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

Onwards!

On The Time Value Of Time

I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future based on the quality of the people you spend the present with.

That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. 

Over the years, I joined several business-leader peer groups like Strategic Coach,  Abundance 360, and Genius Network.  These groups are a great way to meet people and learn things ... and they also provide you with access to the benefits of feedback from a group of trusted advisors, perspectives you might otherwise get from a counselor, and a flow of ideas and opportunities that wouldn't have crossed your mind or your desk.  They allow participants to see, hear, and discuss things they don't usually think about, talk about, or even notice.

Peer groups are also great at bringing blind spots to your attention and connecting you to trends transforming industries and the world.

In these meetings, you often find a "nugget" in the discussion.  Sometimes it stems from what is happening in the world.  Sometimes it alerts you to potentially valuable relationships, opportunities, or gadgets.  And sometimes, the nugget comes from discussing a common problem or constraint (like the pandemic) with your peers. 

This week, several of these groups prompted me to think about time (e.g., not wanting to sell time for money, wanting to live past 100, the "strangeness" of time during the past year, etc.). 

Time is funny.  Sometimes it seems to fly by ... other times, it seems to stand still.  Dan Sullivan uses the example of 10 minutes with a dying loved one compared to holding your hand on a stove for 10 minutes.  One seems excruciatingly short, and the other seems excruciatingly long. 

zefrank via YouTube

The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

How many amazing vacations do you have left?  How many jaw-dropping moments?  How many fantastic meals?  How many Super Bowls?

What about time with your parents or older relatives?  It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens" – but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn't it become more special?

For contrast:

• Would you rather spend that time dwelling on a mistake?
• What about being angry at something out of your control?
• What about doing work that drains you mentally and emotionally?

In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life. 

That is just an example, but clearly, it is worth taking the concept further. 

To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

• Hitting Flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
• Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
• Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - "Wow!"
• Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
• Experiencing peace and relaxation;
• Feeling pure joy.

It's easy to get lost and take these moments for granted when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left ... they take a whole new meaning. 

How can you maximize the time you have left?  Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

To start, think about different time frames:

• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

 Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

Seriously, try it.  

Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose!