Capitalogix

The Most Hyped Technologies of The 2000s

The Hype Cycle provides the raw material for some of my favorite posts every year.

In general, as technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities and to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily life. 

Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is one of my favorites.  It is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.

Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

Another methodology uses frequency analysis to identify the "most hyped" concepts and technologies.  

VisualCapitalist recently put together an infographic highlighting the most hyped technologies of each year. They call it the "Peak of Inflated Expectations".

 (Click To See Full Infographic) via VisualCapitalist

Here's a Summary of the most hyped technologies, by year, since 2000.

• 2000 - Wireless Web, ASPs, Bluetooth
• 2001 - Web Services, Enterprise IM, m-Commerce
• 2002 - Biometrics, Grid Computing
• 2003 - Process Portals
• 2004 - Micro Portals, Virtual Content Repositories
• 2005 - P2P VOIP, Biometric ID Documents, BPM Suites
• 2006 - Mashup, Web 2.0 
• 2007 - Legal P2P, Digital Video Broadcasting
• 2008 - Green IT
• 2009 - Cloud Computing, e-Book Readers, Social Software Suites
• 2010 - 4G Standard, Activity Streams
• 2011 - Internet TV, NFC Payment, Augmented Reality
• 2012 - BYOD, 3D Printing, Complex Event Processing
• 2013 - Big Data, Gamification, Wearable User Interfaces
• 2014 - IoT, Natural-Language Question Answering, Cryptocurrencies
• 2015 - Speech-To-Speech Translation, Advanced Analytics, Autonomous Vehicles
• 2016 - Blockchain, Cognitive Expert Advisors, Machine Learning
• 2017 - Virtual Assistants, Connected Home, Deep Learning
• 2018 - Biochips, Digital Twin, Deep Neural Networks
• 2019* - 5G, AI PaaS, Graph Analytics
  *Missing from the infographic, but updated by Gartner

As we take our smartphones for granted, it's hard to imagine bluetooth, wireless web, or e-book readers as emerging technologies at this point - but at a time, the lightbulb was an emerging technology. 

It's also interesting to look at which technologies peaked in a hype cycle, or which now popular technologies don't show up on this list. Despite Virtual Reality being around since the 80's, I expected to see it on this list. 

Cryptocurrencies, "smart homes", and several older examples are fizzling or burnt out - but that doesn't mean they won't have resurgences. 

As a reminder, the hype cycle and the innovation/adoption cycle are often on very different time scales. It's very possible that technologies from the early 2000s may still have their heyday. 

What are you surprised wasn't on the list? And, what do you think is about to get added?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 19th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Artificial Intelligence: How to Measure the I' in AI. (TheNextWeb)
• Samsung Sheds Light on Its 'Artificial Human' Project. (EnGadget)
• Secrets from a Former FBI Negotiator on How to Get What You Want. (TheLadders)
• Here's the Advice Mark Cuban Would Give His 20-Year-old Self. (CNBC)
• Want to Grow 10X? Here are 17 Books about Business and Life You Should Read in 2020. (TheLadders)

 

Trading Links:

• The Decade of the "Young Old" Begins. (WorldIn)
• 2019 A Year to Forget for Hedge Funds. (Benzinga)
• Fortnite Made $1.8 Billion in 2019. (CNN)
• Amazon Partners with Lamborghini, Rivian to Offer Alexa Voice Assistant in Vehicles. (CNBC)
• Apple Made Investors Half a Trillion Dollars Last Year. Time to Hedge Your Bets. (Barrons)

Autonomous Lyft - Waymo

I went to a conference in Phoenix with my son Zach last week.  While there, he noticed something interesting ... Lyft is testing Alphabet's Waymo autonomous driving service live on the streets.

Regardless of concerns about the future of the gig economy – this is a glimpse into our not-to-distant future.  

Here's what they say about it.

I had to leave early to catch a flight, so my son decided to use Lyft to get around.  He accepted the Waymo terms, but didn't get a Waymo vehicle. Still, I thought this was cool.

 

There will likely soon be a tipping point where autonomous vehicles proliferate.  Even though we are not "there" yet ... the progress is obvious and the "quickening" is happening. 

Meanwhile, examples of innovation and exponential technology successes and adoption are all around us. 

The future is getting closer. 

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 12th, 2020

As the Australian wildfires rage on - an inestimable number of animals have died.

If you wish to donate to help relief efforts, you can do so with any of these trusted sources. 

• The Australian Red Cross
• GIVIT - Donating Essential items to Victims
• St. Vincent De Paul Society
• The Nature Conservancy Australia

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 20-year-old McDonald's Burger Still Looks Brand New, Smells like Cardboard. (FoxNews)
• Japanese Woman Turns 117 Years Old, Extends Record as World's Oldest Person. (Reuters)
• China Quietly Confirms a Third CRISPR-Edited Baby Has Been Born. (ScienceAlert)
• Pope Francis Apologizes for Losing His Patience after Slapping Woman's Hand. (FoxNews)
• Fresh Cambridge Analytica Leak Shows Global Manipulation is Out of Control'. (TheGuardian)

 

Trading Links:

• Jeff Bezos is Still the Richest Person in the World. (CNN)
• 4 High-Potential Sectors for AI and ML Startup Success. (Readwrite)
• Tesla Delivered 367,500 Cars Last Year. (CNN)
• The Market Surged Last Year. Don't Expect the Same in 2020. (New York Times)
• It Was a Dismal Year for Hedge Funds: Here Are 2019'S Fund Closures and Family-Office Conversions. (ZeroHedge)

 

I See You

It feels like we're always being watched, right?

It's not just me?

From governments, to Google, to Facebook ... it feels like it's impossible to have any expectation of privacy today. Amazon knows what I want before I do. 

This is an issue that cuts both ways. On the one hand, increased surveillance means we are arguably safer – because the digital omniscience makes it harder to get away with crimes ... but all this extra data on us makes it easier to commit other crimes and to suffer from the increasing lack of privacy. 

Paul Bischoff via Comparitech

Unsurprisingly, 8 of the top 10 most-surveilled cities in the world were in China. It's even less surprising with the Hong Kong protests and the new social credit system. 

My eldest son spent several years focused on cybersecurity. One of his "warnings" was that everyone's been hacked - not everyone has been targeted. 

I find that somewhat comforting. 

If everyone's information is out there, that's a lot of noise to sift through. 

Still, this is one of the issues that will be increasingly important.  Big Data with an AI parser creates a new set of promises and perils.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 8th, 2019

For a candidate with an "age" issue, not sure if this was a smart move ...

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Don't Apologize for Having High Standards. (LinkedIn)
• Automation is Not Intelligence. (Forbes)
• How to Talk to Aliens. (Economist)
• 52 Things I Learned in 2019. (Medium)
• McLaren Unveils $1.7 Million Supercar with No Roof and a Windshield Made of Air. (CNN)

 

Trading Links:

• When to Buy into Aramco. (Wall Street Journal)
• How Spices Have Made, and Unmade, Empires. (New York Times)
• The First New US Airport since 2010 is in North Dakota's Oil Country. (TPG)
• This Widening Crack in the Mortgage Market Could Sink U.S. Home Prices. (MarketWatch)
• One Man's Quest to Challenge Wall Street With a New Silicon Valley Stock Exchange. (Telegraph)

Is WiFi Becoming Part of Our Hierarchy of Needs?

My wife's mother and sister were staying with us last week.  We also had two other house guests.  And our Internet service went out.  Not just momentarily, but for days.  Catastrophe!

Is Internet access becoming one of our basic human needs?

In 1943, psychologist Abraham Maslow published his famous “Hierarchy of Needs”. The idea was simple: the essential survival needs in the lowest level of the pyramid must be satisfied before the individual can turn his or her attention to the next level, and so on. Maslow’s “essential needs” are physiological; food, water, shelter, and physical safety.

Today, as we approach the 2020s, perhaps we need to add one more layer to Maslow’s pyramid: WiFi.

 

 

OK, humans probably don’t really need WiFi more than food, but without it, we feel frustrated and "twitchy". 

My solution: dual providers and a fail-over router.  

On a higher level, is Internet access a "basic human right" that should be handled like the New Deal treated electricity at the beginning of the 20th Century?

Expect to hear more about this (and not just because Bernie Sanders made it a campaign issue).

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 1st, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning is Changing Medicine. (NewsNetwork)
• The Lines of Code that Changed Everything. (Slate)
• Why All Birds CEO Just Asked Amazon to Steal Its Idea. (Inc)
• Storytelling is a Powerful Communication Tool Here's How to Use It, from TED. (Ideas)
• 3,000-Year-Old Tablet Describing Babylonian Noah's Ark Tale Could Be 'Earliest Ever Example of Fake News,' Scholar Says. (FoxNews)

 

Trading Links:

• Eyeing Presidential Bid, Michael Bloomberg Makes Big Television-Ad Buys. (Wall Street Journal)
• This Invisible Company Powers Almost the Entire Finance Industry. (Forbes)
• Malls are Dying. the Thriving Ones are Spending Millions to Reinvent Themselves. (Washington Post)
• These Maps Show How Many People Will Lose Their Homes to Rising Seas – And It's Worse Than We Thought. (Popular Science)
• Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio Says the Economy Isn't Growing Because 'The World Has Gone Mad'. (CNBC)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 24th, 2019

Hope you are ready for the Thanksgiving holidays.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Gartner's Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2020: the Good, the Obvious, the Renamed & the Missing. (Forbes)
• New Cardiology A.I. Knows If You'll Die Soon. Doctors Can't Explain How It Works. (DigitalTrends)
• The Science is Extremely Clear: You Need to Prioritize Sleep. (Wired)
• How to Get Die-Hard Meat Eaters to Try Impossible Burgers: Trick Them. (Wall Street Journal)
• Japan's Cheapest Hotel Will Charge You Just $1 Per Night If You Don't Care About Privacy. (OddityCentral)

 

Trading Links:

• The USPTO Wants to Know If Artificial Intelligence Can Own the Content It Creates. (TheVerge)
• 100 of the World's Most Promising Start-ups to Watch in 2019. (CNBC)
• Bezos Interested in Seahawks? Maybe. NFL Interested in Bezos? Definitely. (WashingtonPost)
• The American Dream is Alive in China. (Palladium)
• How Jim Simons Became the Most Successful Investor of All Time. (Economist)

Sea-Thru Sea

An engineer and oceanographer, Derya Akkaynak, created an algorithm that removes the water from underwater images - meaning it takes away the haze & tint that come with most underwater photos. It doesn't require a color chart either (though it does need distance information it gathers through numerous photographs from different angles). 

Check it out. 

 

via ScientificAmerican 

From the abstract: 

The Sea-thru method estimates backscatter using the dark pixels and their known range information. Then, it uses an estimate of the spatially varying illuminant to obtain the range-dependent attenuation coefficient. Using more than 1,100 images from two optically different water bodies, which we make available, we show that our method with the revised model outperforms those using the atmospheric model. Consistent removal of water will open up large underwater datasets to powerful computer vision and machine learning algorithms, creating exciting opportunities for the future of underwater exploration and conservation.

Essentially, the algorithm goes through every pixel and color balances the image based on collected data on distance/color degradation.

As with most algorithms of this type - the more data we feed it, the better it gets. Sea-thru already has great applications for furthering ocean-based research, but the follow-up question is can this algorithm be extrapolated outward to deal with other atmospheric conditions outside of water - smog, etc. 

What other uses can you imagine?  It is not hard to imagine how this could be applied to market data either ... Interesting stuff!