Capitalogix

The Future of the Blockchain

Last week, I talked about market performance in 2021.  A decent portion of that article talked about cryptocurrency and the recent downturn (after a stellar 2021).  I'm a skeptic by nature, so it's hard for me to get behind any specific coin (even Bitcoin) at this point in time.

This week, I had a conversation with good friends, including John Raymonds, about the topic as well.  John is much more active in the space and brought up some good points.  Something I noticed was how the level of discussion is starting to elevate and mature. People are beginning to think about secondary and tertiary value propositions. The conversation even made me think about repurposing some of our underutilized hardware in our server room for some crypto-related purposes.

So, today, I want to focus on a different aspect of the equation ... the potential value propositions of cryptocurrency as a technology - and the blockchain. 

To start, I want to talk about Industrial Revolutions.  In part because we're at another inflection point. 

A Look at Industrial Revolutions

The Industrial Revolution has two phases: one material, the other social; one concerning the making of things, the other concerning the making of men. - Charles A. Beard

There are several turning points in our history where the world changed forever.  Former paradigms and realities became relics of a bygone era. 

Tomorrow's workforce will require different skills and face different challenges than we do today.  You can consider this the Fourth Industrial Revolution.  Compare today's changes to our previous industrial revolutions. 

• First industrial revolution - Discovery of the steam engine and creation of factories
• Second industrial revolution - Introduction of the assembly line and mass production
• Third industrial revolution - The world wide web and computers connect the world, enabling the digital age. 

Each revolution shared multiple similarities.  They were disruptive.  They were centered on technological innovation.  They created concatenating socio-cultural impacts.

Since most of us remember the third revolution, let's spend some time on that. 

Here's a map of the entire "internet" in 1973. 

 

Reddit via @WorkerGnome.

Most of us didn't use the internet at this point, but you probably remember Web1 (static HTML pages, a 5-minute download to view a 3Mb picture, and of course ... waiting for a website to load over the dialup connection before you could read it).  It was still amazing.

Then Web 2.0 came, and so did everything else we now associate with the internet; Facebook, YouTube, ubiquitous porn sites, Google.  But, with Web 2.0 also came user tracking, advertising, and we became the "product."  Remember, you're not the customers of those platforms - advertisers are.  And if you're not the customer, you're the product. And when you're not the customer, there's no reason for the platforms not to censor your thoughts to control the narrative. 

Putting You In Control

Web3 (and the blockchain and its reliant technologies) brings the power back to the people. 

Primarily due to decentralized access with equal treatment for everyone.  Governments are already being pressured by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.  But so are banks and brokerages, due to smart contracts and Ethereum.  Soon, even VCs will be impacted due to OHM fork treasuries or initial DEX offerings. 

As Web3 gets more mature, so will decentralized finance.  Meaning, big banks, governments, ISPs, and more will have less control over the applications and uses of the technology. 

If handled correctly, that means competition can discourage the productization of your digital presence.

Removing Barriers

There are many practical ways this would impact your life - but let's look at one that's already happening. 

El Salvador recently made Bitcoin legal tender.  Talking about all the reasons this happened is beyond the scope of this article, but it does make El Salvador an excellent case study for the possibilities. 

To start, it's now easier and quicker to buy a beer there (with Bitcoin) than it is in the US with cash.  It also stabilizes pricing in a civil war, because it's easy to move both in and out of the country. 

Consequently, it also means that their currency holds its value as they travel to other places. 

Let's take this to the extreme.  Let's say someone was to convert all their net worth to Bitcoin, and put it in a hardware wallet.  They could conceivably memorize their seed phrase, throw the wallet in a fire, and fly to El Salvador with only the clothes on their back.  After finding a way to scrounge up the money to buy another hardware wallet through random acts of labor ... they would be in a completely new country with their entire net worth and no other footprint.  It's scary - especially for governments and their taxing authority.  But, it creates a new set of potentials and freedom.

Now, take it a step further.  What would the world look like if you had all your health data, insurance, etc., with you anywhere you travel?  The world becomes your oyster in a way that was almost impossible before. 

And that's only the beginning. 

But, to bring it back to my skepticism again, there are a lot of roadblocks, inferences, and time in between today and the decentralization of the internet and finance.  And for now, that thought experiment only really works if you're willing to move to El Salvador.  The larger countries seem to be doing everything they can to discourage the adoption of cryptocurrencies. Though I think the smaller countries view this as a chance to become one of the new hubs of the world.

However, maybe it's time for this quote by Elon Musk: 

"Stop being patient and start asking yourself, how do I accomplish my 10 year plan in 6 months? You will probably fail but you will be a lot further ahead than the person who simply accepted it was going to take 10 years."

 

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 6th, 2022

Have you paid attention at all to the Spotify controversy?

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Emerging Tech Will Influence Freedom, Industry, and Money In the Metaverse. (VentureBeat)
• Here's What Henry Kissinger Thinks About the Future of Artificial Intelligence. (Gizmodo)
• Boston Scientists Create "Robots" that are Capable of Reproduction. (CBS News)
• Eureka Moments Come From Deep Within Subconscious Brain. (GreekReporter)
• Revenge: The Neuroscience of Why It Feels Good In the Moment, But May Be a Bad Idea In the Long Run. (NeuroScienceNews)

 

Trading Links:

• The Tech Sell-Off Has Some Venture Capitalists Worried the Good Times May Be Coming to an End. (CNBC)
• Have We Hit Peak Unicorn? (GeekWire)
• Here's Where the Jobs Are In One Chart. (CNBC)
• Amazon In Talks To Purchase Fitness Equipment Producer Peloton. (AppleInsider)
• Amazon Added More to Its Market Capitalization on Friday Than Any Company Ever Had in a Single Day. (MarketWatch)

 

How Much Electricity Does Bitcoin Use?

Electricity use is one of the common complaints people have when talking about Bitcoin adoption and mining. 

So, how much energy have we been using to mine Bitcoin?

More than you might’ve guessed.

The world is changing.

via Daily Infographic

I know several people that are getting more into mining as cryptocurrency continues to grow in popularity (despite the downturn). 

While this amount of energy usage is startling - and bad for the environment - there are many ways to reduce the consumption of electricity by cryptocurrencies. 

On the other hand, this might be an interesting alternative data source that gives us a different perspective about the ongoing popularity and commitment people have towards a currency.

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 30th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Elon Musk Called Biden a 'Damp Sock Puppet In Human Form' After the President Highlighted EV Production By GM and Ford But Not Tesla. (Insider)
• Behind Meta's Claim of Building World's Fastest AI Supercomputer. (AnalyticsIndia)
• We Finally Have Jetpacks and No One Cares. (Kottke)
• Birth of the Omicron Family: BA.1, BA.2, BA.3. Each As Different As Alpha is From Delta. (Forbes)
• A Master Economist on Increasing Tipping, Strategic Quitting, Maximizing Charitable Fundraising, Baseball Cards, Theory of Mind, and Valuable Decisions On the Margin. (TimFerriss)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• What the Regime Will Do To Fight Private Digital Currencies. (Mises)
• U.S. SEC Approves New U.S. Exchange With Blockchain Feed, Faster Settlement. (Reuters)
• The Stock Market Slump is Raising Recession Fears But the Actual Data Isn't So 'Ominous,' Analyst Says. (Markets)
• Even Early Enterprise Metaverse Solutions are At Least 3-5 Years Away. (VentureBeat)
• Elon Musk Says Tesla's Humanoid Robot is the Most Important Product It's Working On and Could Eventually Outgrow Its Car Business. (News)

 

 

A Look At The Future Through Today's News

Inspiration comes from many places. 

I'm grateful for the many groups I'm in, and smart people I know, because they're shortcuts to insights that can be hard to find. 

One can also find inspiration through events, books, and more. 

But, while it's easy to discredit mainstream news sources ... there's plenty of insight to be gained just from keeping track of various news sources. You have to take them with a grain of salt, and find the articles that provide a different perspective too, but it's still a valuable exercise. 

It's part of the reason I share my weekly links and this newsletter. They give me a reason to continue to do research and stay on my toes. 

With that, here are some interesting articles I found recently on advancements in technology. 

• In VR, You Can Become Your Own Psychologist - There's a new VR psychology treatment where you play both patient and psychologist. It has promising results in leading to detachment from habitual ways of thinking about personal problems. This is on top of already interesting VR technology around meditation and psychedelics. 
• Synthetic tissue can repair hearts, muscles, and vocal cords - 3D-printed tissues have been growing in popularity recently. Also making progress is synthetic tissue made of a new biomaterial in the form of an injectable hydrogel. It's durable and porous, both important qualities in creating wound repair that can handle the movement and stress put on hearts and vocal cords. 
• AI Is Discovering Patterns In Pure Mathematics That Have Never Been Seen Before- Mathematicians using computers to discover patterns is not new, but now deep learning models are not only assisting in analysis but formulating conjectures and approaches for formerly unproven ideas. This is a promising indicator for many spaces including chemistry, metallurgy, and material sciences (on top of trading of course). 
• DARPA Funded Researchers Accidentally Create The World's First Warp Bubble - Warp drives have been part of science fiction for a long time - and science for a decent amount of time as well. Warp drives have been theoretically possible since 1994 but were deemed "impossible" due to their use of theoretical materials and massive amounts of energy. Now, there's tangible progress as a real (but very tiny) warp bubble was successfully modeled. This is very fledgling, but it's always exciting to see science fiction become reality. 
• Renewables 2021 by IEA - I remember when renewable energies were not only ineffective but very costly. Now, 95% of the new electricity capacity from 2021-2026 is expected to be from renewables. Now, IEA bases their estimates on historical data, so they over underestimate the adoption curves. I would take that number as conservative. Just remember that capacity is different than coverage. Several countries are making a lot of progress on renewables, and several are making none. 

Have you found any other articles you found interesting?

Always looking for more sources to read. 

How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

I write about the future of technology often. 

But, sometimes, it's fun to see what others have to say as well.

Every year Visual Capitalist puts together a list of their predictions for the coming year. As we reach the final two weeks of 2021, I figure it's worth taking a look!

Here was their "bingo card" for 2021.

via visualcapitalist

Honestly, that was a pretty good set of predictions.  While some of this list didn't pan out, much of it did. We're seeing a growing exodus from major cities (where people lived to pursue opportunities previously available only in such places), movies are recovering, and hybrid work models are all the rage. 

Could they have predicted how much of an issue COVID would pose throughout the year? Probably not. 

As we near the end of 2021, there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

Global markets have the jitters - and we don't see the increased volatility changing anytime soon. 

What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 19th, 2021

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Tech Revolution Has Reached Warp Speed: What Lies In Store For 2022. (VanityFair)
• NFL Postpones Three Games Due To COVID-19 Outbreak. (NBC Sports)
• The NFL Pivots To Less Covid Testing, Not More, To Thwart Disruptions. (WSJ)
• Seoul the First City to Enter the Metaverse. (ThisCityKnows)
• For the First Time In History, a Spacecraft Has 'Touched' the Sun. (ScienceAlert)

 

Trading Links:

• What Will Work Look Like In 2022? Glassdoor Makes Four Predictions. (Protocol)
• Is Bigger Better? Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion. (EurasiaReview)
• Core Inflation Shoots to Highest Level Since 1992.(Statista)
• The Regional Breakdown of Stock Market Sectors Over Time. (VisualCapitalist)
• Bruce Springsteen Sells Music Catalog to Sony for $500 Million. (The Wrap)

Greatest Strength or Greatest Weakness

I often talk about "unique abilities"... Those skills that define you and also bring you energy and joy. 

But, often, our greatest strengths also can be our greatest weaknesses (especially when you overuse them). I shot a brief video on the subject (under three minutes). Check it out. 

 

When we get good at something, it's easy to focus on that thing myopically. It makes sense. You develop a habit because you often get rewarded for doing it.  Consequently, it makes sense to focus on your strengths and leverage your unique abilities.

On the other hand, no technique works all the time.  Further, the "recipe" that got you here isn't necessarily the recipe for next.

With that said, you shouldn't neglect opportunities to find other ways to win or to seek improvement around you by intentionally growing the collection of unique abilities at your disposal.  One way to do that is to add 'Who's to your team whose unique abilities are the 'How's you need.   

Recognizing which new capabilities you need can be the job description for a person or the "spec and scope" of a technology solution.  In either case, it frees you to focus on setting your sights higher and doing more of what matters and adds the most value. 

A-To-Z of The Internet Minute in 2021

As I get older, time seems to move faster ... but it's also true that as I get older, more is accomplished every minute. 

Technology is a powerful force function. In fact, the amount of data in the digital universe effectively doubles every two years. 

Every couple of years, I revisit a chart about how much data is generated every minute on the internet.  

In reverse chronological order, here's 2018, 2015, and 2011. 

Here's an excerpt from 2015 for some perspective: 

Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

• The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion (2021 #: 5.2 billion) 
• Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion (2021 #: 2.89 billion
• Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting. (2021 #: 206 million ACTIVE users after a big bot deletion)
• The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase! (2021 #: 6.37 billion)

Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

• 4 million search queries on Google
• Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
• Email users send 204 million messages

Throughout its (pretty short) history, the internet has been arguably the most important battlefield for relevancy and innovation. 

So, what does the internet look like in 2021?

DOMO via visualcapitalist 

Looking at the list, we see new editions like Clubhouse and Strava. Partially due to the quarantine, you're still seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams. 

Just to pick out some of the key figures in the chart this year. 

• Amazon users spend $283,000
• 6M people shop online
• TikTok users watch 167M videos
• and, Zoom hosts 856 minutes of webinars. 

Before 2020, I already thought that big tech had a massive influence on our lives. Yet, somehow this past year has pushed their impact even higher. 

One other thing this chart also helps put into perspective is the rapid rate of adoption. As you look at different year's charts, you can see how quickly apps have become part of the cultural zeitgeist. 

How do you think these numbers will grow or change in 2022? 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 5th, 2021

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Can't Baby Boomers and Millennials Just Get Along? (Freakonomics)
• Woman Reportedly Breastfed Cat On Delta Airlines Flight. (FoxBusiness)
• Hawaii Under Blizzard Warning as 12 Inches of Snow and Winds Up to 100 Mph Expected. (USAToday)
• Philip Morris Wants to Sell You Inhalers for Your Asthma. (Quartz)
• Which Fitness Tracker is Best For You? Comparing Apple Watch vs. Fitbit vs. Oura vs. Garmin vs. Whoop. (Wall Street Journal)

 

Trading Links:

• The Billionaire Boyz Club is Selling Record Numbers of Stocks Right Now. (InputMag)
• Microsoft Drops a Bombshell About Teams That Tanked Zoom. (SeekingAlpha)
• How Elon Musk Sold 10 Million Tesla Shares and Increased His Tesla Holdings. (CNN)
• Steve Cohen-Backed Start-Up Bets On 24-Hour Trading So Investors Can React Instantly to Tweets. (CNBC)
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen Says She's Undecided Whether the Fed Should Issue Digital Currency. (News)