Capitalogix

The Law Of Diminishing Returns

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ... it is called the law of diminishing returns.

 

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

And of course ... Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

Imaginary Centenarians: An Ig Nobel Pursuit

The 34th Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony took place last Thursday at MIT. Every year since 1991, around the time the recipients of the genuine Novel Prizes are announced,  the Ig Nobel Prize awards the ten achievements that "first make people laugh, and then make them think. They're meant to celebrate the imaginative and encourage more interest in the sciences. 

The first award for Biology was awarded to Robert Klark Graham, for pioneering development of the Repository for Germinal Choice, a sperm bank that accepted donations only from Nobellians and Olympians. While I jokingly tell my kids they have "superior genetic potential," this type of research and belief can have serious consequences. 

In 1996, Physicist Robert Matthews earned a prize for his paper "Tumbling Toast, Murphy's Law and the Fundamental Constants," which sought to explain why toast tends to fall buttered-side down.

  

 

In 2002, another physicist, Arnd Leike, earned the honor after using the law of exponential decay to explain the behavior of beer foam. 

And in 2017, Marc-Antoine Fardin earned the honor for using fluid dynamics to finally answer the eternal question: "Can a cat be both a solid and a liquid?" In case you are squeamish, no blender was involved in that experiment.

While these are funny examples, they're rooted in real science. As is the focus of this article, this year's Ig Nobel Prize for Demography. 

In my circles, it is becoming more common to discuss how to live past 100 — and not just how to live beyond that number ... but to do so with a high quality of life.

A popular concept around that subject is Blue Zones - areas where people seem to live longer and healthier. There's even a Netflix documentary on the subject. Notable places include Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; and Ikaria, Greece. 

Saul Justin Newman challenged that belief with his research, which found that extreme age records tend to come from areas with no birth certificates, rampant clerical errors, pension fraud ... and even short life spans. 

While longevity in the zones has primarily been attributed to diet, community, and genetics, Newman found that many of these claims were based on errors - or outright fraud. Instead, these regions are actually characterized by the opposite of what you would expect ... low incomes, low literacy, high crime, and short lifespans. 

To a certain extent, it makes sense. In areas where you're struggling to make ends meet ... why wouldn't you commit pension fraud? In fact, in 2010, the Japanese government realized that over 80% of the people aged over 100 were actually dead. Part of what made this possible was that America bombed the halls of records in that area during the war. 

Here's an interview with Saul Justin Newman on the subject. He's tracked over 80% of the people aged over 110 worldwide. Almost none of them have a birth certificate. Only about 10% have a death certificate. 

What does this mean for human longevity?

While the stories of these 110-year-olds may mostly be fake - as mentioned in my recent article - longevity is on the rise, and there are many modalities to increase your lifespan. 

 

 

The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

There are people living to 100, and there are plenty of people living healthily into their 70s, 80s, and 90s. 

We're taking steps in the right direction. Technology and medicine are both evolving quickly. 

But, like with longevity data, improvements in any space need to be met with a grain of salt. 

If it sounds too good to be true ... it generally is. Not always. But, generally. 

Remembering Ikigai In Stressful Times

Over the past century, life expectancies have soared while birth rates have declined. This unusual combination of population dynamics creates significant demographic and socioeconomic challenges for societies worldwide.

To put things in perspective, adult diapers now outsell baby diapers in Japan. Think about how that likely reshaped Japan's workforce and consumer markets.

Getting old is tough, and it gets tougher the older you get.   As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life becomes even more important ... it may also be the secret to living longer and healthier.

Many people (all over the world) struggle to get up in the morning. 

There's a Japanese concept called Ikigai that may help.

Ikigai centers around finding purpose as you grow older. Paradoxically, it makes sense to start the process as early as possible. 

 

via InformationIsBeautiful

Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose is a key to making the most of your time.

The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) … When two areas intersect, it creates something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission).   However, where three areas intersect, it creates a pain point (for example, it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it … but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).

It's worth examining and thinking about for a bit.

On a related note, here is a TEDx talk about the nine common diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100 ... whether or not they take you past 100, they're probably a good place to start. 

 

 

TED-ED via YouTube

And here is a link to Dan Sullivan's e-book, My Plan for Living to 156. That may sound outrageous, but it's worth reading because Dan shares surprisingly valuable insights in this book. It doesn't matter whether you actually live to be 156; what matters is living as if it were true. Someone who believes they're approaching the end often looks for excuses or an off-ramp rather than seeking purpose, meaning, and a Bigger Future. By shifting your perspective, you can create a more purposeful and fulfilling life, regardless of your actual lifespan.

Live long and prosper!

Examining Life Expectancy & Longevity

Life expectancy has been on a steady global rise for longer than I've been alive. 

via worldometers

Meanwhile ... the United States has fallen to 48th on the list of countries with the highest life expectancy.

Hong Kong tops the list with an average life expectancy of 85.63 overall - and 88.26 years for females. 

For comparison, the U.S.'s average life expectancy is only 79.46.

Many factors potentially impact the findings, for example, the average height and weight of a population (with shorter & lighter people tending to live longer), diet, healthcare system, and work/life balance. 

While some of this is out of your control (OK, a lot of it is) - there are definitely things you can do to increase your healthy lifespan. Meanwhile, some people like Bryan Johnson are doing everything they can to live forever. 

Popular Mechanics put together a video series called How to Live Forever, or Die Trying, where they interview scientists and anti-aging gurus to give you insight into pursuing a future without death. 

Unfortunately, recent science has shown that adults in their mid-40s to early 60s begin to experience significant changes in their alcohol, caffeine, and lipid metabolism, an increase in risk of cardiovascular disease, and a noticeable decrease in their skin and muscle health. When you hit your 60s, you also begin to see negative changes in carbohydrate metabolism, immune regulation, kidney function, and a further decline in the previously mentioned factors. 

Here's the good news. Not only is science and technology getting better, but you're always in control. You can make lifestyle changes to increase your longevity, and you can also find supplements, treatments, and protocols that can reverse those factors of aging. Even simple measures like increasing your physical activity or avoiding alcohol before bed can make a massive difference. 

They say a healthy person has thousands of dreams, but an unhealthy person only has one.

That is one of the reasons I spend so much time and energy thinking about staying healthy, fit, and vital.

Focusing on the positive is important ... But to extend your healthy lifespan, you have to start by telling the truth and finding out what you and your body struggle with the most.

A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn't matter if you are on top of 9 out of 10 things ... it's the 10th that kills you.

Despite our best efforts, Mother Nature remains undefeated.

With that said, here are some of my previous articles on longevity and health: 

• Live Long & Prosper
• How Much Time Do You Have Left?
• Changing Your Definition Of Resolution
• Workouts That Work
• Getting Used To A New Normal (Pt 1, Pt 2, Pt 3)

The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.

Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.

Additionally, I use a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to measure my heart rate, along with apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. Together, these practices recognize that mind, body, and spirit combine to define how you live your life.

To end this post, I'll use a farewell phrase I heard often while growing up ... it translates roughly to "go in health, come in health, and be healthy." It's a beautiful way to wish someone well on their journey, emphasizing the importance of health and well-being.

I hope you found something interesting.  Let me know what things and practices work best for you.

Thoughts From a Birthday Weekend

I had a birthday this weekend.

I can’t believe how time flies.  Birthdays seem to come more quickly as you get older.

It makes sense, though, I suppose.  When you were four, a birthday represented a quarter of your life.  Now, a year represents a much smaller percentage.

While it’s not always pleasant getting older, it sure beats the alternative.

This year, I made a concerted effort to make strides toward being healthier, fit, and vital in mind, body, and spirit. 

If you are going to live longer, your future has to be compelling.  I always strive to make my future bigger than my past.  

This year, my birthday came after a string of long and hard days.  So, it was especially nice to take some time to relax and reflect.

In general, I work hard, but smart.  I don’t often get anxious.  I just relentlessly pursue my goals.  It is a recipe that works for me.

Resilience and determination are certainly worth celebrating ... but they aren’t the only strategies worth pursuing. 

I recognize that energy is important too – It is the fuel for doing and becoming.  You can get some from doing well ... but sometimes you need to get some from doing less or controlling your focus.  

As a result, this weekend, I focused on rest and recovery (with a nice dose of appreciation, gratitude, and reflection about friends and family who share the journey with me). 

Flow State

On one hand, I’m proud of myself for doing what I’m supposed to do – finding ways to gain traction and momentum, letting small wins today set up bigger wins tomorrow, and laying the groundwork for the next level of future success.  But I’m also reminded that when you’re in flow, the biggest outcomes don’t seem to require the biggest effort.  Instead, achieving great results can feel surprisingly easy and natural.  It’s as if when things click into place, success becomes almost effortless.  This is a powerful reminder that sometimes, it’s not about pushing harder but finding that sweet spot where your skills and passions align, and a small shift can have a big impact.

Mindset Matters ... And So Do Habits!

It’s crucial to take a day to relax and celebrate after a challenging and significant stretch.

I also feel it is important to make the time and effort to feel things like “Happy Birthday!” 🎂

I have a birthday ritual.  We go to Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse and celebrate there.  It’s interesting because it’s become a location-and-event-based trigger reminding me to celebrate.  Even the act of reserving this restaurant for a special occasion creates a powerful association that starts the celebration process.

Even though I really like the restaurant, I don’t go there for everyday dinners.  I reserve it for celebrations so that it stays “pure” and “special” in my mind.  It’s the same reason you’re not supposed to lounge around all day or work in bed - your body forgets that the bed is meant for sleep. 

I use other location and activity triggers as well.  Think about where they might help you?  For example, walking in from the garage to your home, or into your bedroom.  You could also trigger a particular response when you hold your partner's hand or kiss them goodbye.  There are many places where you can apply this technique.

If you think about it, we don’t necessarily “have” emotions - we “do” them.  It’s the same with celebration.  It’s both a noun and a verb.  It’s something in and of itself, but it also is something you do.  In a sense, “having” and “doing” go together and feed off each other to create more of what you want.

What Are Your Rituals and Traditions?

The connection you make between a ritual and the emotions you want is powerful and can help you fully immerse yourself in the feelings you desire.

Recognize that you can create what you want rather than searching for it, chasing it, or waiting for it to happen.  This perspective can produce profound insights.

What are some things that are also actions for you ... with having and doing being intertwined and reinforcing each other to create more of what you desire?

It’s a reminder to be intentional about creating and maintaining rituals, traditions, and habits that foster joy, appreciation, and a sense of accomplishment.

May your days be filled with joy and fulfillment, and may the coming year bring you many reasons to celebrate! 🎉

Live Long & Prosper

Each year, I become a little bit more focused on what I can do to get more out of my time and increase the quantity of time left.

Even with a renewed focus on health, it isn't always easier. As my friend Ben Hardy says, Willpower Doesn't Work. You have to identify goals that are bigger than yourself, create consequences and rewards for achieving or failing to achieve those goals, and change your environment to make success easy.  

I don't just want to be healthier to extend my time on earth. I also want to support my family, friends, and business better ... and to have a bigger positive impact on those around me. 

When you have a vision of who you want to be and what you want to accomplish, achieving your goals becomes much easier and more likely. 

When the goal is health, there are definitely some decisions that are proven to help. Click to see the image in full size. 

 

via InformationIsBeautiful

On top of the science, here are some of my anecdotal opinions on living longer, healthier, and better:

• Losing weight is as simple as calories in, calories out. It doesn't matter if you're on keto or eating only Twinkies if you can keep your calories ingested below your calories burned. The magic of those new weight loss injections lies in their ability to curb your hunger, leading to a natural reduction in calorie intake.
• In life (and in diets), shortcuts will likely hurt you long-term more than they help you short-term. I use a simple framework called "cleansing or clogging." It doesn't need much explanation—thoughts, things, or actions fit into one of these categories. You already know the answer.
• Living "right" doesn't mean you can't let loose. It means that it's the exception instead of the rule. If your lifestyle doesn't let you have fun with your friends or family, it's probably not the healthiest lifestyle. Mental health is just as important as physical health.

I'd love to hear your favorite "trick" to living better. Feel free to send me an e-mail. 

Thanks! Live Long and Prosper!

Father's Day Weekend Reflections

My adult son took me to a Pixar movie and Dallas' version of NY Deli today for Father's Day. 

Pixar movies never cease to amaze me.  Whether you're a child, a teenager, or an adult, there's always something to enjoy and take away from them.

I especially enjoyed watching it next to my 31-year-old son and noticing that he responded emotionally to the same scenes I did.  On one hand, it felt good to see what he processed and how he internalized things similar to the way I do.  On the other hand, I thought, genetics is a bitch.

Jokes aside, having great kids is a double blessing.  It's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do.  It's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.

In addition, this weekend, I spent some time thinking about my father and what a terrific influence he had on so many lives.

  

 

My Dad was incredibly loving ... yet he was also incredibly demanding.

For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, I watched him run down from the stands.  I figured he was coming down to celebrate.  Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed that I did not throw a personal best that day?  I replied: "But Dad, I won." He smiled and recognized that winning was important too ... then he reminded me that the other throwers were not my real competition.  To be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself ... and we both knew I could do better.

My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and how to meet the minimum standards for them as well.

The point is to set a higher standard and to have a better life.

Here is another one of his favorite sayings.  "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things.  For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them. 

Here is something else worth sharing.  "It's not over until we win!"  This concept underscores the importance of resilience, commitment, and grit.  My Dad emphasized that many people quit when they're on the brink of victory, simply because they don't realize how close they are.  

This has led me to develop several practices.  For example, if I pick up a book, I won't put it down until I finish a chapter.  If I start a game, I can't stop until I exceed a specific score or level.  And when I exercise, there's no way I'd ever stop before finishing a set.

Integrating these concepts involves aligning your head, heart, and feet.  What I mean is that it's one thing to know the saying.  It's another to make it a value or belief.  And it's another thing altogether to make it a practice. 

Well, that should explain a little of my dysfunction ...  but, if you can't mess up your own kids, whose kids can you mess up?

Hopefully, you had a happy Father's Day weekend.

Don't Walk Out On A.I. Just Yet

Amazon's 'Just Walk Out' technology has revolutionized shopping convenience, but whispers suggest there might be more to it than meets the eye...

For years, shoppers have been able to walk into one of their Amazon Fresh grocery stores,  walk out, and never have to talk to a single person, or even check out. 

This feat was supposedly made possible solely using machine intelligence. 

Just Walk Out technology is made possible by artificial intelligence like computer vision and deep learning techniques, including generative AI, to accurately determine who took what in any retail environment. Amazon built synthetic datasets to mimic millions of realistic shopping scenarios – including variations in store format, lighting conditions, and even crowds of shoppers – to ensure accuracy in any environment. - via an Amazon Spokesperson

However, they just announced that they're removing technology from their stores and switching to smart shopping carts. 

Along with that announcement came rumors that the technology only worked due to a team of 1000 out of India. Apparently, this team was required to verify orders and correct the technology when it missed items. 

On the one hand, that seems like a classic case of overpromising and underdelivering, but it's also very common. Many public-facing AI systems rely on human moderators and data labelers. 

So why is Amazon being flogged in the media?

The problem for me is two-fold. 

First, Artificial Intelligence is at the peak of inflated expectations on Gartner's Hype Cycle. That means the average user has high hopes and is being disappointed. It also means the average user is likely overwhelmed with apps and technologies that fail to deliver on their promises. 

Second, transparency is the name of the game, especially in a black-box situation like most AI. The technology Amazon is creating is impressive—but they're also Amazon. Eyes are on them to be leaders, so when they fall short, it's a chance for naysayers to pile on. 

Public perception is likely to trend downward in the next news cycle, which is to be expected. After the peak of inflated expectations comes the trough of disillusionment. 

Regardless, AI will continue to become more capable, ubiquitous, and autonomous. The question is only how long until it affects your business and industry. 

While Amazon has "walked out" on that technology in its stores, it's not time to "walk out" on AI just yet. Numerous stores still use that or similar technologies.

The "Chart Of The Century" In 2024: A Look At Consumer Price Inflation

This post considers the “Chart of the Century” created and named by Mark Perry, an economics professor and AEI scholar. This chart has received considerable attention because it contains extensive information about the challenges faced by the Fed and other Washington policymakers.

The most current version reports price increases from 1998 through the end of 2023 for 14 categories of goods and services, along with the average wage and overall Consumer Price Index.

It shows that prices of goods subject to foreign competition — think toys and television sets — have tumbled over the past two decades as trade barriers have come down worldwide. Meanwhile, the costs of so-called non-tradeable items — hospital stays and college tuition, to name two — have surged.

From January 1998 to now, the CPI for All Items has increased by over 90% (up from 59.6% in 2019, when I first shared this chart).  

Lines above the overall inflation line have become functionally more expensive over time, and lines below the overall inflation line have become functionally less expensive. 

via Human Progress

At the beginning of 2020 (when I shared the 2019 post), food, beverages, and housing were in line with inflation. They’ve now skyrocketed above inflation, which helps to explain the unease many households are feeling right now. College tuition and hospital services have also continued to rise over the past few years—even in relation to inflation. 

There are many ways to interpret this chart. You can point to items in red whose prices have exceeded inflation as government-regulated or quasi-monopolies. You can point to items in blue as daily commodities that have suffered from ubiquity, are subject to free-market forces, or are goods subject to foreign competition and trade wars.

Looking at the prices that decrease the most, they’re all technologies. New technologies almost always become less expensive as we optimize manufacturing, components become cheaper, and competition increases. From VisualCapitalist, at the turn of the century, a flat-screen TV would cost around 17% of the median income ($42,148). In the early aughts, though, prices began to fall quickly. Today, a new TV will cost less than 1% of the U.S. median income ($54,132).

Compare “tradable” goods like cell phones or TVs (with lots of competing products) to less tradable “goods” like hospital stays or college tuition, and unsurprisingly, they’ve gone in opposite directions. In 2020, I asked what the Coronavirus would do to prices, and the answer was less than expected. If you don’t look at the rise in inflation but instead the change in trajectories, very few categories were heavily affected. While hospital services have skyrocketed since 2019, they were already skyrocketing. 

At this point, we’re pretty far removed from quarantine’s most extreme forces. Textbooks have come back down, as have childcare and medical care services. New cars and household furnishings have leveled out. Otherwise, the trajectories have been pretty unaffected.

We can look one step deeper if we consider average hourly income. Since 2000, overall inflation has increased by 82.4%, while average hourly income has increased by 114%. This means that hourly income increased 38% faster than prices (which indicates a 14.8% decrease in overall time prices). You get 17.3% more today for the same amount of time worked ~24 years ago.

It’s interesting to look at data like that, knowing that the average household is feeling a “crunch” right now. My guess is that few consumers distinguish between perception and reality. However, feeling a crunch isn’t necessarily the same as being in a crunch.

For instance, we must account for ‘quality of life creep,’ where people tend to splurge on luxuries as their standard of living improves. With the ease of online shopping and access to consumer credit, it’s become increasingly easy to indulge in impulse purchases, leading to reduced savings and feelings of financial scarcity. This phenomenon is a function of increased consumption (rather than inflation), yet it still leaves consumers feeling like they’re struggling to make ends meet.

 

Perry’s ‘Chart of the Century’ reveals the complex relationships between inflation, consumption, and economic growth. While households may feel financial strain, the data shows that income has outpaced inflation, and technology has made many goods more affordable. Nonetheless, our tendency to splurge on luxuries and increased consumption have contributed to a sense of financial struggle.

 

How can policymakers address the sectors experiencing significant price hikes, like healthcare and education, without stifling innovation in tradable goods and services? 

 

How do you think these issues will impact the Election?

Just Sardines In A Tincan...

I fly a lot.

In fact, I hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines in 2019 (back when frequent flyer programs were about flying frequently rather than credit card spending).

It is 2024, and I am now just below 5.5M.  That means I averaged a little over 100,000 miles per year, even through the COVID shutdown.

Yes, I expect that my travel will slow down.  But as I traveled, I didn't expect it to continue at the pace it did. 

Nonetheless, it has been good for me, and the time spent traveling has been productive.

I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

As you probably noticed, Airline Status means much less today than it used to (which is why it feels even more important to get).  Every week, the airlines seem to make the space between seats smaller while the time it takes to find overhead luggage space gets shorter.  It seems like most airlines could change its slogan to "We are not happy until you're not happy."

Yet the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

It looks more like a set from Star Trek than the hellscape passengers complain about regularly. 

What about the boarding process? 

Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

via CGP Grey

If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

via Sam Chui

You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour ... What a bargain!

Of course, you could also use Zoom.  Times are changing!

I fly a lot.

In fact, I hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines in 2019 (back when frequent flyer programs were about flying frequently rather than credit card spending).

It is 2024, and I am now just below 5.5M.  That means I averaged a little over 100,000 miles per year, even through the COVID shutdown.

Yes, I expect that my travel will slow down.  But as I traveled, I didn't expect it to continue at the pace it did. 

Nonetheless, it has been good for me, and the time spent traveling has been productive.

I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

As you probably noticed, Airline Status means much less today than it used to (which is why it feels even more important to get).  Every week, the airlines seem to make the space between seats smaller while the time it takes to find overhead luggage space gets shorter.  It seems like most airlines could change its slogan to "We are not happy until you're not happy."

Yet the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

It looks more like a set from Star Trek than the hellscape passengers complain about regularly. 

What about the boarding process? 

Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

via CGP Grey

If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

via Sam Chui

You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour ... What a bargain!

Of course, you could also use Zoom.  Times are changing!