It is that time of year, again. We are in the midst of our annual planning for 2023.
The process is relatively straightforward. We start by deciding what the company's three highest priority goals are. With those goals as the base, each department (and manager) creates a big three that represents what they can do to reach the company's big three. From there we dive into quarterly rocks, SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, actionable, relevant, and timed), as well as the explicit tactical steps it will take to accomplish what we set out to achieve.
The meetings are going well. There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.
Nonetheless, I had a sneaking suspicion that sometimes what seemed like a dialogue, was really multiple monologues.
The reason for the disconnect (or misconnect) was that the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other.
I shot two videos that I think help teams get to alignment.
Thinking About Your Thinking
The first discusses several techniques to enhance your decision-making.
One of the ideas is something called "Think, Feel, Know." Basically, it explains that you have to deal with superficial thoughts before getting to deeper feelings. Then, you have to deal with those feelings before you get to "knowing".
Another technique discussed in the video involves adding time to look for "insights" after working on something. Those insights are often the seeds for something greater.
Chunking Higher
The second is on how to chunk high enough that you can start from a place of agreement. Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.
I'll add one more concept for good measure ... Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages. Before you can truly get alignment on what to do next, you have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.
With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of a common language. Words can mean different things to different people. Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.
This year, we continued our tradition of going to the Cowboys game – then having a big dinner together afterward.
I got to spend time with both my sons and my first grandchild (who didn’t seem to want her picture taken while there was so many other things to investigate).
Thanksgiving is a reminder to be grateful for the blessings in your life - big and small. But it's also a time to be thankful for the challenges in your life - and the opportunities for growth.
Often, when I think about what I want, the first thing I think of is what I don't want. Similarly, when I think about what's going well (or something worthy of being thankful for), I first think about what has been difficult or isn't above minimum standards yet. Some things change quickly. Apparently, human nature isn't one of them.
Challenges are often hidden gold mines. Instead of thinking about them being obstacles for you, recognize that getting past them creates an obstacle for competitors. In other words, figuring out a strategy to achieve these lofty goals creates a new status quo and a sustainable competitive advantage.
At Capitalogix, we often talk about "finding a way," "creating breakthroughs," and "setting new standards." The reason is that most things an innovator wants are just outside their current capabilities (otherwise, they'd already have them).
Dealing with this on a daily basis requires a resilient mindset and the ability to be comfortable with being uncomfortable.
Having no problems either means you're blind to your flaws or aren't playing a big enough game (which is a problem in itself).
So, I am thankful for my health, my family and friends, and the quality of my life. But, I am also thankful for the stress, the challenges, and the opportunity to face a continually better class of challenges that forge a path to a bigger future.
It purports that the US dollar will suck up liquidity from the other currencies, creating a chain of events that will drive the US dollar even higher. Unfortunately, this increases the risk of debt defaults. Eventually, the dollar ends up drinking the liquidity from the entire world economy.
Think about it. If you're getting negative yields on your two-year bonds from other countries, after a certain point you would sell those investments and switch to US two-year treasury bonds. It's a slippery slope from there.
We recently dove into what's happening at Twitter. Since that article, Elon wrote an ultimatum e-mail to his employees saying that if they wanted to stay, they would have to work harder and longer than before ... and that they would get three months severance if they chose to leave. In a result that might have surprised Elon, thousands of Twitter employees quit. In response, Elon locked the doors, cut badge access, and attempted some damage control.
With that, it's probably a good time to take a look at the social media landscape. Here is an infographic that shows the relative popularity of various social media properties.
As we near the end of the year, I start to think about what I want for my future, and how far I’ve already come. It’s also a reminder that while I can extend my life – eventually, the clock stops.
Death is often a trigger that sends my thoughts spinning: celebrating life; mourning death; imagining what lies in store for the family; empathizing with the survivors ... and even future-pacing to my death and memorial service.
In daily life, I often remind myself that ‘everything happens for a reason – and just because I can’t find the gift in a particular situation, doesn’t mean it isn’t there.
This is the anniversary of my Father’s death. When he died, I came out with a newfound respect for how precious life is. I decided it was time to stop thinking about what I do – and spend more time cultivating who I want to be. It also caused me to consider how I would be remembered – versus how I’d choose to be remembered.
Death is often a reminder to make the most of the time given to us.
It was a reflection on my struggle with juggling work-life balance. It was about a year that brought my Dad’s death, the forced sale of my company by venture capitalists, and a divorce (in that order). Luckily, sometimes, life’s darkest days bring the greatest gifts … if you are willing to look for them.
One of my biggest takeaways from that struggle was about the time value of life.
In finance, the “time value of money” refers to the principle that the purchasing power of money varies over time (meaning, money today has more purchasing power than money later). In part, this is because the value of money at a future point in time might be calculated by accounting for other variables (like interest earned, inflation accrued, etc.).
It occurred to me that a similar calculation applied to life ... or living.
The above video is 13 minutes. Hopefully, you’ll watch ... but if not, I’ve added some of my favorite excerpts below.
Live Like You Only Have a Year Left.
“During the last part of my Dad’s life, I think he would have done almost anything for a little more time.
Things that used to be unimportant, or even mildly irritating, took on increased importance. For example, a dinner together became almost a sacred event; a kiss goodnight was truly heartfelt, and saying goodbye meant something ... because it could be the last time.
Nevertheless, as a result of that focus, he took more life out of that time.
Shouldn’t we do the same thing? Think about it: We will never be younger than we are right now. We are never going to have more time to fix a big mistake. Isn’t it likely that the time value of your life is worth maximizing?”
People Who Are Good Take Advantage of Opportunities. People Who Are Great Create Them.
“When I think back to that year, I spent so much time moving away from pain ... that I forgot to move towards opportunity. I feel like I wasted so much time.
My Dad said the difference between good and great is infinitesimal. People who are good take advantage of opportunities ... But people who are great create them.
I think what he meant was that when they see the opportunity, they move towards it. They shoot through it.
It is easy to say, “I see that opportunity; but it’s not the right time.” Or, “I see that opportunity, and I really want to remember it for when this is over.” And as much as I want to believe that’s true ... deep down, I know that it’s always a good time to take the right action.
Instead, “life” (the noun) often gets in the way of “living” (the verb).
To Change Your Life, Change Your Perspective.
“When you are ‘stuck’... a shift in role, or a shift in perspective, is often all you need to see a new path forward or a new possibility.
Have you ever been stuck playing a role you knew didn’t serve you? Where you knew what the best next step was, from your perspective, but you had a sense that it wasn’t the right action? Sometimes it makes sense to step back and ask, ‘What role can I play that would get a better result?’”
That is often all it takes to change the game. Other times, what it takes is the decision to play a new game.
Everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Some use it better than others.
Sometimes we are conscious of how we use this precious resource. Sometimes it gets away from us.
The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.
How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?
What about time with your parents or older relatives? It’s easy to forget to call or to miss an important event because “life happens,” but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn’t it become more special?
In my TEDx talk, I mentioned “living like you only have a year left,” and how much more “life” we got out of the last part of my Dad’s life.
How do you replicate that?
To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, and experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self.
Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - Wow!
Making a difference in someone’s day or giving back to your community;
Experiencing peace and relaxation;
Feeling pure joy.
It’s easy to get lost and take these moments for granted when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning.
What would it take for you to get the most out of your life today? How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.
To start, think about different time frames:
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?
Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.
Seriously, try it.
Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose.
Everyone knows that Elon Musk was sued by Twitter and 'forced' to buy Twitter for $44B. Since then, the now-private company has made a lot of confusing decisions.
To start, Musk publicly announced that the company was hemorrhaging money. To try and remedy this, he began by firing approximately half the employees. Key executives were fired. Later, many more executives left on their own. After the massive exodus, Elon supposedly reached out to some former employees asking them to come back. He also ended remote work for employees.
In an attempt to increase the company's profitability, he announced Twitter Blue, a paid subscription service that would give you a checkmark, and push your content to the top of users' feeds.
Unfortunately, users were quick to abuse the new verification system by pretending to be public figures and even public companies. As a result, there was real tangible damage to stock prices.
Do you think those are the most influential 8 dollars ever spent in history?
As a result of the turmoil, advertisers are leaving Twitter in droves, and Twitter has paused Twitter Blue in America – though it remains up in some different geographies.
On the surface, it looks like Twitter is being run into the ground. It seems like Musk is throwing a lot of darts at the board and seeing what sticks. He said as much when he promised that Twitter would do many dumb things as part of his strategy to innovate and find smart things to do.
Are the foibles simply the cost of the innovation needed to revitalize the company ... or signs of trouble for Twitter's future?
Even though I'm prone to bet on Musk, I think it's too early to believe you can predict the outcome.
It’s one of the few reports that I make sure to track every year. Gartner’s Hype Cycle explains what technologies are reaching maturity and which technologies’ ascents are being enhanced by the cultural zeitgeist (hype, momentum, great timing, etc.).
Strangely, “Technology” has gone beyond the technical – and it has (in part) become “Cultural”... because Technology now impacts and influences almost every aspect of everyday life.
Identifying which technologies are making real waves (and thus will impact the world more) can be a monumental task. Gartner’s report is a great benchmark to compare with your perception of reality.
2021 saw the inclusion of NFTs and advancements in AI. It also focused on the increasing ubiquity of technology.
2022 builds on that – and is best understood by where things are placed on Gartner’s framework called the “Hype Cycle.”
What’s a “Hype Cycle”?
As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities ... and to get disappointed when those expectations aren’t met.
At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product’s timeline we are – and how long it likely will take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily life.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies. It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.
Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts).
Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like “How will these technologies impact my business?” and “Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?”
That said - it’s worth acknowledging that the hype cycle can’t predict which technologies will survive the trough of disillusionment and which ones will fade into obscurity.
What’s exciting this year?
Before we focus on this year, it’s important to remember that, in 2019, Gartner shifted towards introducing new technologies at the expense of technologies that would normally persist through multiple iterations of the cycle. This change is indicative of more innovation and more technologies being introduced than in the genesis of this report. Many of the technologies from the past couple of years (like Augmented Intelligence, 5G, biochips, the decentralized web, etc.) are represented within newer modalities or distinctions.
It’s also worth noting the impact of the pandemic on the prevalent technologies.
This year, the key technologies were bucketed into three major themes.
Evolving/Expanding Immersive Experiences which represents the increasing ubiquity of sensors and technology into the human experience. It includes more control over our digital identities and data, and expands the range of experiences in virtual ecosystems - while also integrating with digital currencies. Technologies you’d recognize in this section include the Metaverse, NFTs, and Web3. Many of these technologies have launched only to fall precipitously. Nonetheless, there is still a long lifecycle for these technologies.
Accelerated Artificial Intelligence Automation is a reference to the growing maturity and relevance of AI in evolving businesses. AI’s growth is not only accelerating but also becoming more specialized and more accurate, resulting in faster benefits and more enticement for businesses to bite the bullet. It’s freeing up humans to do more of what makes them human ... and happy. One key innovation that Gartner mentions is generative design AI which involves AI-augmented user flows, content, and more. Tangentially related to pop-AI tools like DALL-E. It also includes causal artificial intelligence, where systems go beyond correlation-based predictive models and start understanding cause and effect. That results in actions that are more effective and autonomous.
Optimized Technology Delivery represents technologies focused on building a digital business. They provide insight to optimize your and help deliver your products and services. While there are numerous interesting technologies in this space, the ones that caught my eye were cybersecurity mesh architecture, platform engineering, and data observability. When I talk about Turning Thoughts Into Things, this is what I’m talking about. In many respects, the future of a business increasingly depends on its ability to leverage data - both internally and externally - to take a capability and make it into a platform (and to do it securely, consistently, and repeatably).
If we compare this year’s list to last year, I think we’ve seen a massive increase in the adoption of emerging technologies. All three of Gartner’s major themes focus on the ubiquity of technology and AI in all facets of life. While some of the key technologies in immersive experiences (like digital currencies, NFTs, and the metaverse) are experiencing inflated expectations and disillusionment, the space, as a whole, is moving forward rapidly.
Of course, I’m always most interested in the intersection of AI and other spaces. Last year, AI felt like the underpinning of broader trends. This year, it’s become a lighthouse for businesses to work toward. In my opinion, this points towards the increasing maturity and adoption of AI. The opportunity cost of adopting AI into your business is continuing to decrease. Meanwhile, these systems are also becoming more autonomic, self-managing, and self-learning. I’m excited to see Gartner emphasizing what this does for humans - not what it takes away from them. Remember, the heart of artificial intelligence is human - and it continues to free us up to be more human.
As we reach new echelons of AI, you’ll likely see increasing examples of over-hype and short-term failures. You often miss a rung on the ladder as you reach for new heights, but it doesn’t mean you should stop climbing. More importantly, it doesn’t mean failure or even a lack of progress. Challenges and practical realities act as force functions that forge better, more robust, resilient, and adaptable solutions that do what you want (or something better). It just takes longer than you initially wanted or hoped.
To paraphrase a quote I have up on the wall in my office from Rudiger Dornbusch ... Things often take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
Many of these technologies have been hyped for years - but the hype cycle is different than the adoption cycle. We often overestimate what we can do in a year and underestimate what we can do in ten years.
I say it often ... we live in interesting times!
Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?
What's The Dollar Milkshake Theory?
Right now, the US Dollar is outperforming other currencies - in part, because it's the Reserve Currency.
via Econofact
But, that's not necessarily a good thing.
One possible occurrence of this is called the Dollar Milkshake Theory.
It purports that the US dollar will suck up liquidity from the other currencies, creating a chain of events that will drive the US dollar even higher. Unfortunately, this increases the risk of debt defaults. Eventually, the dollar ends up drinking the liquidity from the entire world economy.
Think about it. If you're getting negative yields on your two-year bonds from other countries, after a certain point you would sell those investments and switch to US two-year treasury bonds. It's a slippery slope from there.
If this is true, then it also has dangerous implications for crypto - which is already in peril after the FTX controversy.
So, the question becomes, does the dollar's strength truly help us? What about the global economy? What do you think?
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