Capitalogix Commentary 01/17/11 - The Stat That Proves Bears Can't Catch a Break

Beware What You Wish For ...

Bears just can't catch a break. 

The Market is holding up well.  By that, I mean it isn't going down well.

The Smallest "Biggest" Decline in 50 Years.

According to Bespoke, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn't had a 1% down day since before Thanksgiving; and Monday's 0.32% pullback is the biggest decline the index has had since the start of December. 

 

It is nearly unprecedented to go this long without having a one-day decline of at least one-third of one percent.  Over the last 50 years, Bespoke found just three other 30-trading day periods where the index had a maximum decline of just 0.33%. 

 

Back in April and May of 1965, the Dow went 30+ trading days without declining more than 0.15%.  Later on that same year, the Dow had another 30-day period where its biggest down day was just 0.32%.  And in 1963, the Dow's maximum one-day decline was just 0.33% over a 30-day period.

Can you really blame investors for being bullish when it's hard to remember what a down day feels like?

Until the Markets have a meaningful correction, Smile ... and stay watchful.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Top 10 Worst Moments in Fiscal Policy 2010. (CSMonitor)
• Algorithms Take Control of Wall Street (Wired)
• McKinsey Released Its Economic Conditions Snapshot. (McKQuarterly)
• John Bogle Warns That E.T.F.’s Are Risky for Market Timing. (NYTimes)
• RIM Thought iPhone Was Impossible In 2007. (iPhoneHacks)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• The Perils of the Prediction Game. (BusinessWeek)
• AI Defeats the Hivemind: How a Machine Learning Algorithm Beat the Masses. (TechReview)
• Extreme Fitness For a Hardcore Economy (Forbes)
• Check Out "If the Internet Had Always Existed". (CollegeHumor)
• Timelapse Video of the Recent Blizzard.  See it all in 20 seconds (Vimeo)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Related articles

• Sunday links: reverse brokering (classic.abnormalreturns.com)
• Sector Relative Strength: Recent Rotation (bespokeinvest.com)
• Weekly Sector Report | 01/14/11 (by Leisa) (slopeofhope.com)
• Is McKinsey still top dog? (blogs.freshminds.co.uk)