Capitalogix

On The Time Value of Life

As we near the end of the year, I start to think about what I want for my future, and how far I’ve already come. It’s also a reminder that while I can extend my life – eventually, the clock stops. 

 

via zefrank1

Death is often a trigger that sends my thoughts spinning: celebrating life; mourning death; imagining what lies in store for the family; empathizing with the survivors ... and even future-pacing to my death and memorial service.

In daily life, I often remind myself that ‘everything happens for a reason – and just because I can’t find the gift in a particular situation, doesn’t mean it isn’t there.

This is the anniversary of my Father’s death.  When he died, I came out with a newfound respect for how precious life is.  I decided it was time to stop thinking about what I do – and spend more time cultivating who I want to be.  It also caused me to consider how I would be remembered – versus how I’d choose to be remembered.

Death is often a reminder to make the most of the time given to us.

In 2014, I gave a TEDx talk about the subject: The Time Value of a Life Worth Living.

 

via TEDx

It was a reflection on my struggle with juggling work-life balance.  It was about a year that brought my Dad’s death, the forced sale of my company by venture capitalists, and a divorce (in that order).  Luckily, sometimes, life’s darkest days bring the greatest gifts … if you are willing to look for them.

One of my biggest takeaways from that struggle was about the time value of life.

In finance, the “time value of money” refers to the principle that the purchasing power of money varies over time (meaning, money today has more purchasing power than money later).  In part, this is because the value of money at a future point in time might be calculated by accounting for other variables (like interest earned, inflation accrued, etc.).

It occurred to me that a similar calculation applied to life ... or living.

The above video is 13 minutes.  Hopefully, you’ll watch ... but if not, I’ve added some of my favorite excerpts below.

Live Like You Only Have a Year Left.

“During the last part of my Dad’s life, I think he would have done almost anything for a little more time.

Things that used to be unimportant, or even mildly irritating, took on increased importance.  For example, a dinner together became almost a sacred event; a kiss goodnight was truly heartfelt, and saying goodbye meant something ... because it could be the last time.

Nevertheless, as a result of that focus, he took more life out of that time.

Shouldn’t we do the same thing?  Think about it: We will never be younger than we are right now.  We are never going to have more time to fix a big mistake. Isn’t it likely that the time value of your life is worth maximizing?”

People Who Are Good Take Advantage of Opportunities.  People Who Are Great Create Them.

“When I think back to that year, I spent so much time moving away from pain ... that I forgot to move towards opportunity.  I feel like I wasted so much time.

My Dad said the difference between good and great is infinitesimal.  People who are good take advantage of opportunities ... But people who are great create them.

I think what he meant was that when they see the opportunity, they move towards it.  They shoot through it.

It is easy to say, “I see that opportunity; but it’s not the right time.” Or, “I see that opportunity, and I really want to remember it for when this is over.” And as much as I want to believe that’s true ... deep down, I know that it’s always a good time to take the right action.

Instead, “life” (the noun) often gets in the way of “living” (the verb).

To Change Your Life, Change Your Perspective.

“When you are ‘stuck’... a shift in role, or a shift in perspective, is often all you need to see a new path forward or a new possibility.

Have you ever been stuck playing a role you knew didn’t serve you?  Where you knew what the best next step was, from your perspective, but you had a sense that it wasn’t the right action?  Sometimes it makes sense to step back and ask, ‘What role can I play that would get a better result?’”

That is often all it takes to change the game.  Other times, what it takes is the decision to play a new game.

Everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Some use it better than others. 

Sometimes we are conscious of how we use this precious resource.  Sometimes it gets away from us.

The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.

How many amazing vacations do you have left?  How many jaw-dropping moments?  How many fantastic meals?  How many Super Bowls?

What about time with your parents or older relatives? It’s easy to forget to call or to miss an important event because “life happens,” but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn’t it become more special?

In my TEDx talk, I mentioned “living like you only have a year left,” and how much more “life” we got out of the last part of my Dad’s life. 

How do you replicate that?

To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, and experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self. 

• Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
• Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
• Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - Wow!
• Making a difference in someone’s day or giving back to your community;
• Experiencing peace and relaxation;
• Feeling pure joy.

It’s easy to get lost and take these moments for granted when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning. 

What would it take for you to get the most out of your life today?  How can you maximize the time you have left?  Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.

To start, think about different time frames:

• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
• What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?

Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.

Seriously, try it.  

Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose.

Onwards! 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 16th, 2022

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Are Rats With Human Brain Cells Still Just Rats? (TechReview)
• What's Next If SpaceX Won't Fund Starlink in Ukraine? (NewScientist)
• 9 Astonishing Ways that Living Standards Have Improved Around the World. (BT)
• A Student Asked Her Cosmology Professor the Meaning of Life. Here Was His Response. (BigThink)
• 44% of the Top 100 Public Companies Use Blockchain Amid Growing Institutional Adoption. (FinBold)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• China's Semiconductor Industry 'Decapitated Overnight' — What 'Annihilation Looks Like'. (Benzinga)
• SPAC Sponsors Were Winners Even on Losers. (Wall Street Journal)
• Rent Going Up? One Company's Algorithm Could Be Why. (ProPublica)
• The World's Largest Academic Endowment Fund Lost Money for the First Time in Six Years. (Quartz)
• Volume of Options Traded on the S&P 500 Hits a Record High; Indications of a Market Bottom? (FinBold)

 

 

The World's Population in 2022

The world will reach 8 billion people at some point this year.  That is a new (and potentially scary) milestone. 

Part of the concern stems from how fast population is growing.  Consider that the world’s population has doubled during the last 50 years … and the geographic distribution of the population has changed as well. Here is an infographic that highlights some interesting trends.

via visualcapitalist

If you want to look at where the economy is going over time, you don't have to guess to wildly.  Population growth is a primary clue.  Consequently, focus on where the most children are being born - or where relatively more children are being born recently.  For example, economists don’t have to work too hard to figure out how many 18-year-olds will exist somewhere in the next 15 years – they start by counting the 3-year-olds.

While China, India, and the U.S. top the world's population lists (with the U.S. dramatically behind China and India), many countries are creeping up the list. In fact, Lagos, Nigeria's largest city, is expected to the world's biggest megacity by the end of the century. Many of the world's highest growth rates are found in Africa. 

As another "surprise," India is set to pass China as the world's most populous country. Meanwhile, much of Europe's populations are contracting. 

The U.S. is still growing – but is not matching the rates of emerging countries in Asia and Africa. 

The world is expected to reach a population of around 10 Billion before 2100.  With that said, many expect the number to decrease from there. 

Interesting?

How do you think this will affect the next 20 years? 

Where Are Children Being Born?

Everyone knows that children are our future. They're the next generation of innovators, entrepreneurs, and workers. Countries that are having a natural decrease in population due to families not having children will likely find themselves becoming less important on the geopolitical stage.

While the future is often hard to predict, here is easy “prediction” (that is much less of a prediction than it is simple math). In order to predict how many 18-year-olds there will be in a particular country in fifteen years, simply count the 3-year-olds there now.  Yes, there will be some death or migration … but it is an easy way to get a sense of some important mega-trends.

With that said, the U.S. saw many states with more deaths than births in 2020 and 2021. 

So, where are children being born?

India, China, and Africa all are seeing massive population growth. America is still net positive. It's also worth noting that India and China are topping the list because they already have such large populations. Their birth rates are actually slightly below average. 

On a longer term scale, it's also worth noting that population growth has been declining since the 1960s. Partly due to education, wealth, and the move from rural to urban living. 

Slowing population growth means a larger portion of the population is older. As median age increases, there are lots of potential economic consequences.

It's an interesting compounding of consequences. 

We'll see if the countries with the largest population growth have the economy and infrastructure to support that growth. 

Oil Production By Country in 2021

You could argue that we're in the middle of the first energy crisis of the 21st century.

While gas prices are finally on the way back down, the recent surge is driving inflation and has consumers thinking much more about where their oil comes from. 

When I last wrote about oil production, the shocking "secret" was that the largest importer of oil into the U.S. was Canada - and that most of our oil was produced within the U.S. 

via visualcapitalist

While the U.S. is the largest producer of Oil, OPEC is the largest organization. OPEC accounts for 35% of total production, with Saudi Arabia accounting for a third of OPEC's output. 

Almost half of the world's oil production comes from The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia. 

Also, despite being the world's largest oil producer, the U.S. is still a net importer of oil. 

Supply constraints on oil - as a result of sanctions on Russia - are creating a price increase with skyrocketing demand from mid-pandemic levels. Combine that with OPEC refusing to increase production to meet demand, and you have an energy shortage. 

The U.S. has already started releasing barrels from its strategic reserves, and we've seen gas prices go down as a result, but it remains to be seen if our efforts will be enough to curb the shortage. 

What else do you think we should be doing?

Taylor Swift's Carbon Footprint?

I'm writing this from International Falls, MN (someplace I never thought I'd be ... ).  Meanwhile, one of the only less likely things, I can think of, is the article's topic.

Taylor Swift is known for being vocal about climate issues.  She was also just 'outed' for the 170 flights her private jet took last year.  The news came out after another celebrity was chastised for a 20-minute private jet flight.  Taylor claims that most of those flights weren't hers – and that she rents the plane out.  Knowing other people with private jets, that's believable. 

There are obviously bigger problems in the world today.  Nonetheless, I'm sharing this info anyways because the chart comparing her carbon footprint to the average person's caught my eye. 

via Reddit

I wonder how that would compare to the carbon footprint of non-celebrity private jet owners or manufacturers. 

 

A Few Notes from a Trip to Israel

My wife and I just got back from Israel.  We were there to see my son Zachary play Rugby for Team USA in an International Tournament.

 

 

I feel like I need a vacation after this trip.  There were so many things to do and see.

 

Israel is smaller than the smallest state in America ... Yet, consider its importance in the modern world (for example, by looking at the density of its holy sites, historical attractions, technological innovations, Nobel Prize winners, hostile borders, and military presence).

 

It was fascinating how so many religions consider this the Holy Land.  Here is a photo I took of the Wailing Wall and the Dome of the Rock in the Old City of Jerusalem.

 

 

It’s easy to feel closer to “something” while here.

 

Almost everything we saw in Israel is a testament to determination, ingenuity, and faith!

 

With that said, I started to think about how difficult it was to conceive of many of the things they built (considering how difficult it would be to execute or actually build them in the desert, without electricity, etc.). Many of the sites we visited took decades to build ... but have lasted for thousands of years.  Examples include the Fortress at Masada, the Wailing Wall, and the Port of Caesaria.  In my mind, I compare these moonshots to many of our current big, hairy, audacious goals (like reading and writing our DNA, autonomous artificial intelligence, or space exploration).

 

Technologies might change, but human nature has remained surprisingly consistent throughout time.

 

Onwards!

First Photos From the Webb Telescope

The Hubble Telescope was conceived of in the 1940s, but launched in 1990. It revolutionized our ability to see the complexities of the universe. 

Now, the Webb Telescope is taking it to the next level. 

via NASA

The picture above shows the "Cosmic Cliffs," which is actually the edge of a young Nebula called Carina. 

Below, is a picture of a cluster of galaxies called Stephan's Quintet. 

via NASA

Not only does this help us see far away systems that we've never seen before, but it also provides detail to the things we have seen.

First, bring order to chaos …. Then, wisdom comes from making finer distinctions.  With that in mind, I'm excited to see how this drives the future of science. 

Here's a brief video from Neil Degrasse Tyson on the new telescope. 

 

via NBC News

Are We Alone In The Universe?

Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the Universe. 

As usual, for them, it is well done, fun, and informative. 

For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with two equations: the Drake equation and the Seager equation.

The Drake equation estimates how many detectable extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and then in the Universe based on factors like habitable planets, change of life, and then intelligent life, and then the amount of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect - for example, the number of observable stars/planets, what % have life, and then % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

via Information Is Beautiful

For both equations, Information Is Beautiful lets you look at various default options – but also to play with your own choices to adjust the outcomes. 

For example, the skeptical default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy (which is still 924,000 in the Universe).  The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our Universe. 

Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the Universe.

via Information Is Beautiful

One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially significant numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space.  Conservative numbers are 420 years, but optimistic numbers are 10,000+. 

If any aliens are reading this ... don't worry; I won't tell.  But, we will find out if you voted in the last election.

Where Are The Aliens?

This week, there was a U.S. congressional hearing on the existence of UFOs.  While there wasn't any proof of aliens, they did admit to phenomena that they couldn't explain with their current information.

There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret.  For example, in 2020, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that Aliens from a Galactic Federation have contacted us - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high probability estimates for their existence. 

Let's simplify the issues and arguments in the Fermi Paradox.  There are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies).  Each of these stars is similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets.  Further, it isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us.  Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd.  Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and the length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!