In second place on the list, my home state, Texas, had a $2.6 Trillion GDP. For a little more context:
If Texas were a country, its GDP would fall just behind France ($3.1 Trillion) and above Brazil and Italy ($2.3 Trillion).
The Texas GDP is also higher than Canada's $2.24 Trillion GDP.
For a bit of contrast (and extra perspective), Vermont has the lowest GDP in America, comparable to Nepal, which is the world's 101st-largest economy. Yet, Nepal has 29 times more people than Vermont.
Not too shabby for a place where dairy, forestry, and maple syrup drive the economy.
Studying historical changes in human population trends offers valuable insights into the factors that have propelled or hindered human development throughout time.
From ancient civilizations to modern metropolises, population dynamics have influenced everything from economic prosperity to social structures.
A Window Into Our Past Gives Us a Glimpse at Our Future.
By studying this critical aspect of human history, we can gain valuable insights into the past, present, and future of societies.
Population growth is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon with far-reaching implications. It offers a fascinating glimpse into the demographic trends that have shaped our world and continue to influence our trajectory.
Historically, human populations grew steadily but relatively slowly ... until something changed that.
Scientists estimate that humans have existed for over 130,000 years. However, it took until 1804 for us to reach 1 Billion. We doubled that population by 1927 (123 years later) and then doubled it again only 47 years later (which was 1974).
Looking back, early population growth was driven by the agricultural revolution. Since 1804, the Industrial Revolution, health and safety advances, along with technology, have significantly improved quality of life, spurring the rapid population growth. Here is a quick overview of some of the key factors.
Shaping the Future
It’s hard to predict some things accurately. So, one goal in data science is to figure out what we can “know” in order to “guess” less.
Population growth is a prime example. One of the easiest ways to predict how many 60-year-olds there will be in 40 years is to look at how many 20-year-olds there are today. Obviously, the number won’t be exact, but it’s a pretty good head start.
This principle of using known data to make educated predictions applies to many aspects of future planning, including urban development and resource allocation. By leveraging current demographic information, we can better prepare for the challenges and opportunities that will likely impact the cities of tomorrow.
Economic Implications: A growing population can expand the workforce, fueling economic growth. However, it can also strain resources, requiring increased investment in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
Social and Environmental Pressures: Demographic shifts, such as aging populations or youth bulges, can profoundly affect social structures, healthcare systems, and the environment.
Why It Matters
Population growth is more than just a numerical metric. It is a fundamental lens through which we can analyze:
Historical Development: By understanding past population trends, we can better appreciate the factors that have shaped human civilizations.
Future Planning: Governments, businesses, and organizations can use population data to make informed decisions about resource allocation, infrastructure development, and social policies.
Have World Population Growth Numbers Peaked?
World population growth rates peaked in the late 1960s and have declined sharply in the past four decades, but we’re still on a positive trend. We’re expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, but a lot of that growth comes from developing countries – they also almost exclusively come from urban areas.
In the 1800’s, about 10% of the population lived in urban areas. Since 2014, over 50% of the world’s population has lived in urban areas – today it’s approximately 55%. That number is growing.
Ironically, as we grow more digitally connected, our world is shrinking, and our populations are concentrating.
An interesting consequence of this rapid urbanization and population growth in developing countries has been the increased development of Megacities – defined as cities with populations greater than 10 million. Today, there are 33 megacities – more than triple the number in the 1990s.
This creates a set of interesting opportunities and challenges.
For example, how will these cities deal with infrastructure – sanitation, transportation, etc?
Today, in most high-income countries, about 80% of the population lives in urban areas - contrasting the primarily rural populations of lower-income countries.
As a result, we see many of these megacities forming in developing countries. As a side note, we’re also seeing countries like China making substantial investments and alliances in these developing areas. This is likely done to profit from the expected growth and also to shift the future balance of power in their favor. Sometimes, it makes sense to focus on the marathon and not just the sprint.
It’s interesting how the world can become more decentralized - and more globalized - amidst a contraction of where people live.
Meanwhile ... the United States has fallen to 48th on the list of countries with the highest life expectancy.
Hong Kong tops the list with an average life expectancy of 85.63 overall - and 88.26 years for females.
For comparison, the U.S.'s average life expectancy is only 79.46.
Many factors potentially impact the findings, for example, the average height and weight of a population (with shorter & lighter people tending to live longer), diet, healthcare system, and work/life balance.
While some of this is out of your control (OK, a lot of it is) - there are definitely things you can do to increase your healthy lifespan. Meanwhile, some people like Bryan Johnson are doing everything they can to live forever.
Popular Mechanics put together a video series called How to Live Forever, or Die Trying, where they interview scientists and anti-aging gurus to give you insight into pursuing a future without death.
Unfortunately, recent science has shown that adults in their mid-40s to early 60s begin to experience significant changes in their alcohol, caffeine, and lipid metabolism, an increase in risk of cardiovascular disease, and a noticeable decrease in their skin and muscle health. When you hit your 60s, you also begin to see negative changes in carbohydrate metabolism, immune regulation, kidney function, and a further decline in the previously mentioned factors.
Here's the good news. Not only is science and technology getting better, but you're always in control. You can make lifestyle changes to increase your longevity, and you can also find supplements, treatments, and protocols that can reverse those factors of aging. Even simple measures like increasing your physical activity or avoiding alcohol before bed can make a massive difference.
They say a healthy person has thousands of dreams, but an unhealthy person only has one.
That is one of the reasons I spend so much time and energy thinking about staying healthy, fit, and vital.
Focusing on the positive is important ... But to extend your healthy lifespan, you have to start by telling the truth and finding out what you and your body struggle with the most.
A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn't matter if you are on top of 9 out of 10 things ... it's the 10th that kills you.
Despite our best efforts, Mother Nature remains undefeated.
With that said, here are some of my previous articles on longevity and health:
The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.
I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.
Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.
Additionally, I use a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to measure my heart rate, along with apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. Together, these practices recognize that mind, body, and spirit combine to define how you live your life.
To end this post, I'll use a farewell phrase I heard often while growing up ... it translates roughly to "go in health, come in health, and be healthy." It's a beautiful way to wish someone well on their journey, emphasizing the importance of health and well-being.
I hope you found something interesting. Let me know what things and practices work best for you.
If you're interested in AI and its impact on business, life, and our world, I encourage you to check out some of my past podcast interviews.
As I work on finishing my book, "Compounding Insights: Turning Thoughts into Things in the Age of AI," I've revisited several old episodes, and some are certainly worth sharing. I've collected a few here for you to listen to. Let me know what you think.
In 2021, I recorded two interviews that I especially enjoyed. The first was done with Dan Sullivan and Steven Krein for Strategic Coach's Free Zone Frontier podcast... and the second was with Brett Kaufman on his Gravity podcast.
Please listen to them. They were pretty different, but both were well done and interesting.
Free Zone Frontier with Dan Sullivan and Steve Krein
Free Zone Frontier is a Strategic Coach program (and podcast) about creating "Free Zones." It refers to the green space where entrepreneurs collaborate and create without competition.
It's a transformative idea for entrepreneurial growth.
This episode focused on topics like building a bigger future, how decision-making frameworks and technology can extend your edge, and what it takes to get to the next level. I realize there is a lot of Strategic Coach jargon in this episode. However, it is still easy to understand, and there was great energy and an elevated conversation about worthy topics.
As an aside, Steve Krein is my cousin, and we joined Strategic Coach entirely separately before realizing we had joined the same group.
Usually, I talk about business, mental models, and the future of AI and technology, but Brett Kaufman brought something different out of me.
Brett's Gravity Project is about living with intention, community, consciousness, and connection. He focuses on getting people to share their life experiences ... with the intent that others can see themselves in your story.
In my talk with Brett, we do talk about the entrepreneurial journey ... but we also probe some deep insights by discussing the death of my younger brother, how my life changed almost immediately upon meeting my wife, and why love is the most powerful and base energy in the universe.
This was not a typical conversation for me (a different ratio of head-to-heart), but it was a good one (and I've had many people reach out because of this podcast). It was fun to revisit my childhood, from playing with a cash register at my grandfather's pharmacy to selling fireflies or sand-painting terrariums; it's funny how those small moments influenced my love for entrepreneurship.
Last year, I recorded two other podcasts that I'm excited to share ... It's interesting to see the change in topic and focus - but how much is still the same (timeless).
Clarity Generates Confidence With Gary Mottershead
I talked with Gary about intentionality, learning from the past, and how AI adoption is more about human nature than technology ... and more.
On the surface, this episode may seem like just another conversation about AI, but I value the diverse insights, points of emphasis, and perspectives that different hosts illuminate.
In talking with Scott, we dove deeper into emotional alchemy, self-identity, and how to move toward what you want in life - instead of away from what you don't want.
New York and Hawaii top the list with 12% and 11.8% respectively. Alaska ends the list with 4.9%, followed by New Hampshire with 5.6%.
Alaskans don't pay state income tax, but neither do Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, or Wyoming. So, if you're trying to avoid taxes, they all sound like better bets.
New Hampshire still has a better state tax burden than any of them despite its 4% flat tax on interest and dividend income.
If you don't like paying taxes (and don't mind the cold), then Alaska might be worth the winters?
Meanwhile, we hear a lot about the exodus from California, but not from New York or Maine. Maybe it's the people ... or maybe it's their Governor?
Population growth is an interesting measure. Historically, growth has been slow ... but something changed that, and the implications are stunning.
Scientists estimate that humans have existed for over 130,000 years.
It wasn’t until 1804 that the world’s population reached 1 billion. The population doubled once more by 1927, 123 years later, and then again by 1974, a mere 47 years later.
The Agricultural Revolution spurred early population growth. Subsequently, since 1804, the Industrial Revolution, alongside new technologies and advancements in health and safety, has dramatically enhanced the quality of life and accelerated population growth.
The global population continues to expand as more women are giving birth, despite the statistical trend of each woman having fewer children. Here is a chart showing that.
World population growth rates peaked in the late 1960s and have declined sharply in the past four decades. Nonetheless, world population figures continue to grow. We’re expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050, but a lot of that growth comes from developing countries—it also almost exclusively comes from urban areas.
Urbanization: Megacities
Here is another trend worth noting. Since 2014, over 50% of the world’s population has lived in urban areas – today it’s approximately 55%. That number is growing.
Ironically, as we grow more digitally connected, our world is shrinking, and our populations are concentrating.
An interesting consequence of this rapid urbanization and population growth in developing countries has been the increased development of Megacities – defined as cities with populations greater than 10 million. Today, there are 33 megacities – more than triple the number in the 1990s.
This creates a set of interesting opportunities and challenges. For example, how will these cities deal with infrastructure (e.g., sanitation, transportation, etc.)?
As information and money become increasingly decentralized, and it becomes easier and easier to trade and communicate globally, it’s interesting to see a centralization of the population.
In fact, I hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines in 2019 (back when frequent flyer programs were about flying frequently rather than credit card spending).
It is 2024, and I am now just below 5.5M. That means I averaged a little over 100,000 miles per year, even through the COVID shutdown.
Yes, I expect that my travel will slow down. But as I traveled, I didn't expect it to continue at the pace it did.
Nonetheless, it has been good for me, and the time spent traveling has been productive.
I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.
Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion!
Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.
The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly. Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.
As you probably noticed, Airline Status means much less today than it used to (which is why it feels even more important to get). Every week, the airlines seem to make the space between seats smaller while the time it takes to find overhead luggage space gets shorter. It seems like most airlines could change its slogan to "We are not happy until you're not happy."
Yet the planes themselves are getting better. Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like.
It looks more like a set from Star Trek than the hellscape passengers complain about regularly.
If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
As we discuss the economy, I also think about my youngest son, who is looking at houses right now.
In countless ways, today's youth have it easier than we did. Access to opportunities, the internet, capital sources, etc., has gotten more accessible, yet there are a few things that have gone the other way, such as buying a house.
The chart above does not show interest rates or inflation. For example, in 1984, the 30-year fixed rate was close to 14%, over double what it is now.
But, to put things in perspective ... I moved to Texas in 1986. Part of my rationale was that I could buy a "nice" home for a little less than my initial starting salary as a lawyer.
Recently, policy decisions have vastly increased house prices. How much? Median house prices are nearly 6x the median household income in America. Meanwhile, the economics of renting are significantly better than buying. According to the WSJ, it's 52% more expensive to buy than rent due to mortgage prices.
When housing costs are this high, consumer spending and mobility are reduced, making individuals less likely to relocate for job opportunities.
We live in interesting times. Sometimes, I miss the good old days.
How do U.S. States Compare to Entire Countries?
With Trump's election win, the economy will likely be center stage.
Crypto boomed post-election, and the S&P and the Nasdaq reached new highs as the Fed cut rates.
Amidst all the political turmoil, it's easy to overlook how well-positioned we are as a country – compared to the rest of the world.
VisualCapitalist created a chart comparing countries' GDPs to those of U.S. states.
At the top of the list, California would be the world's fifth-largest country (replacing India) with its $3.9 Trillion GDP.
In second place on the list, my home state, Texas, had a $2.6 Trillion GDP. For a little more context:
For a bit of contrast (and extra perspective), Vermont has the lowest GDP in America, comparable to Nepal, which is the world's 101st-largest economy. Yet, Nepal has 29 times more people than Vermont.
Not too shabby for a place where dairy, forestry, and maple syrup drive the economy.
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