Capitalogix

How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

I write about the future of technology often. 

But, sometimes, it's fun to see what others have to say as well.

Every year Visual Capitalist puts together a list of their predictions for the coming year. As we reach the final two weeks of 2021, I figure it's worth taking a look!

Here was their "bingo card" for 2021.

via visualcapitalist

Honestly, that was a pretty good set of predictions.  While some of this list didn't pan out, much of it did. We're seeing a growing exodus from major cities (where people lived to pursue opportunities previously available only in such places), movies are recovering, and hybrid work models are all the rage. 

Could they have predicted how much of an issue COVID would pose throughout the year? Probably not. 

As we near the end of 2021, there's a lot of uncertainty in the air.

Global markets have the jitters - and we don't see the increased volatility changing anytime soon. 

What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 19th, 2021

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Tech Revolution Has Reached Warp Speed: What Lies In Store For 2022. (VanityFair)
• NFL Postpones Three Games Due To COVID-19 Outbreak. (NBC Sports)
• The NFL Pivots To Less Covid Testing, Not More, To Thwart Disruptions. (WSJ)
• Seoul the First City to Enter the Metaverse. (ThisCityKnows)
• For the First Time In History, a Spacecraft Has 'Touched' the Sun. (ScienceAlert)

 

Trading Links:

• What Will Work Look Like In 2022? Glassdoor Makes Four Predictions. (Protocol)
• Is Bigger Better? Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion. (EurasiaReview)
• Core Inflation Shoots to Highest Level Since 1992.(Statista)
• The Regional Breakdown of Stock Market Sectors Over Time. (VisualCapitalist)
• Bruce Springsteen Sells Music Catalog to Sony for $500 Million. (The Wrap)

Greatest Strength or Greatest Weakness

I often talk about "unique abilities"... Those skills that define you and also bring you energy and joy. 

But, often, our greatest strengths also can be our greatest weaknesses (especially when you overuse them). I shot a brief video on the subject (under three minutes). Check it out. 

 

When we get good at something, it's easy to focus on that thing myopically. It makes sense. You develop a habit because you often get rewarded for doing it.  Consequently, it makes sense to focus on your strengths and leverage your unique abilities.

On the other hand, no technique works all the time.  Further, the "recipe" that got you here isn't necessarily the recipe for next.

With that said, you shouldn't neglect opportunities to find other ways to win or to seek improvement around you by intentionally growing the collection of unique abilities at your disposal.  One way to do that is to add 'Who's to your team whose unique abilities are the 'How's you need.   

Recognizing which new capabilities you need can be the job description for a person or the "spec and scope" of a technology solution.  In either case, it frees you to focus on setting your sights higher and doing more of what matters and adds the most value. 

A-To-Z of The Internet Minute in 2021

As I get older, time seems to move faster ... but it's also true that as I get older, more is accomplished every minute. 

Technology is a powerful force function. In fact, the amount of data in the digital universe effectively doubles every two years. 

Every couple of years, I revisit a chart about how much data is generated every minute on the internet.  

In reverse chronological order, here's 2018, 2015, and 2011. 

Here's an excerpt from 2015 for some perspective: 

Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

• The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion (2021 #: 5.2 billion) 
• Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion (2021 #: 2.89 billion
• Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting. (2021 #: 206 million ACTIVE users after a big bot deletion)
• The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase! (2021 #: 6.37 billion)

Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

• 4 million search queries on Google
• Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
• Email users send 204 million messages

Throughout its (pretty short) history, the internet has been arguably the most important battlefield for relevancy and innovation. 

So, what does the internet look like in 2021?

DOMO via visualcapitalist 

Looking at the list, we see new editions like Clubhouse and Strava. Partially due to the quarantine, you're still seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams. 

Just to pick out some of the key figures in the chart this year. 

• Amazon users spend $283,000
• 6M people shop online
• TikTok users watch 167M videos
• and, Zoom hosts 856 minutes of webinars. 

Before 2020, I already thought that big tech had a massive influence on our lives. Yet, somehow this past year has pushed their impact even higher. 

One other thing this chart also helps put into perspective is the rapid rate of adoption. As you look at different year's charts, you can see how quickly apps have become part of the cultural zeitgeist. 

How do you think these numbers will grow or change in 2022? 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 5th, 2021

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Can't Baby Boomers and Millennials Just Get Along? (Freakonomics)
• Woman Reportedly Breastfed Cat On Delta Airlines Flight. (FoxBusiness)
• Hawaii Under Blizzard Warning as 12 Inches of Snow and Winds Up to 100 Mph Expected. (USAToday)
• Philip Morris Wants to Sell You Inhalers for Your Asthma. (Quartz)
• Which Fitness Tracker is Best For You? Comparing Apple Watch vs. Fitbit vs. Oura vs. Garmin vs. Whoop. (Wall Street Journal)

 

Trading Links:

• The Billionaire Boyz Club is Selling Record Numbers of Stocks Right Now. (InputMag)
• Microsoft Drops a Bombshell About Teams That Tanked Zoom. (SeekingAlpha)
• How Elon Musk Sold 10 Million Tesla Shares and Increased His Tesla Holdings. (CNN)
• Steve Cohen-Backed Start-Up Bets On 24-Hour Trading So Investors Can React Instantly to Tweets. (CNBC)
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen Says She's Undecided Whether the Fed Should Issue Digital Currency. (News)

Fueling Alpha: Data In The New World

Data has long been a precious commodity - yet it’s only getting more valuable.

At the beginning of 2020, the number of bytes in the digital universe was already 40X greater than the number of stars in the observable universe. 

Data is today’s “wild west” and the battlefield of today’s tech titans; with AI, The IoT, the Blockchain, and analytics leading the forefront. 

Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft all have an unprecedented amount of data (and power).

Rapid growth means little time to create adequate rules. Everyone’s jumping to own more data than the next and to protect their data from prying eyes.

The trading industry has undoubtedly experienced the rapid growth of data, but it’s pervasive in every industry – and in our personal lives as well. 

Having basic data and basic analytics used to be enough, but the game is changing. Traders used to focus on price data, but now you’re seeing an influx of firms using alternative data sets to find an edge. If you’re using the same data sources as your competitors and competing on the same set of beliefs, it’s hard to find a sustainable advantage. Understanding the game they’re playing (and the strategies and rules they follow are important), but now that’s just the table stakes.

Figuring out where you can find extra insight, or make the invisible visible, creates a moat between you and your competition – and lets you play your own game.

I shot a video in 2019 about Data as fuel for your business. Check it out.

 

 

It is interesting to think about what’s driving the new world (of trading, technology, AI, etc.), and that often involves identifying what drove the old world. History has a way of repeating itself.

Before e-mails, fax machines were essential. Before cars, people were pleased with a horse and buggy.

These comparisons contextualize the importance of data in today’s new world of economics and commerce.

 

via gapingvoid

Data as the New Oil

While not the best comparison, people often default to comparing data to oil. 

Since the Industrial Revolution, petroleum has played a pivotal role in human advancement. It fueled (and still fuels) our creativity, technology advancements, and a variety of derivative products. There are direct competitors to fossil fuels that are gaining steam, but it’s more interesting to compare petroleum to data due to their parallels in effect on innovation.

The process of pumping crude oil out of the ground and transforming it into a finished product is far from simple, but anyone can understand the process at a high level. You have to locate a reservoir, drill, capture the resource, and then refine it for the desired product (e.g., heating oil, gasoline, asphalt, plastics, etc.). Then, you have to move it to where it’s needed.

The same is true for data.

You've got to figure out what data you might have, how it might be useful, you have to figure out how to refine it, clean it, fix it, curate it, transform it into something useful, and then how to deliver it to the people that need it in their business. And even if you've done this, you then have to make people aware that it's there, that it's changing, or how they might use it. For people who do it well, it's an incredible edge. – Howard Getson

Data can be seen as the fuel to the information economy and oil to the industrial economy. The amount of power someone has often correlates to their control of and access to resources ... and diminishing or diluting those resources can lead to extreme consequences.

Why Data Is Better Than Oil

The analogy works, but it’s just that, an analogy. The more you analyze it, the more it falls apart. Unlike a finite resource (like oil), Data is all around us and increasing at an exponential rate.  So the game is a little different:

• Data is – ultimately – a renewable resource. It’s durable, it’s reusable, and it’s being produced faster than we can process it.
• Because it’s not a scarce resource, there’s no urge to hoard it – you can use it, share it, transform it, infinitely knowing that it won’t diminish. Data is more valuable the more you use it.
• As the world’s oil reserves dwindle (and renewable resources grow in popularity and effectiveness), the relative value of oil drops. It’s unlikely that will happen to Data.
• Also, while data transport is essential, it’s not expensive in the same way that transporting oil is. In fact, it can be transported and replicated at light speed.
• While petroleum can be transformed into many different products - the variety of data-related products and sources is basically infinite in comparison.

On Alternative Data

In the past, investors relied on information and experience from their real lives, from counterparties, and from fastidious attention to CNBC and stock tickers. 

However, fundamental discretionary traders account for just 10% of today’s trading volume. Quantitative investing based on machine intelligence and algorithms is the new normal.

While the games, the rules, and the players have all changed, the goal hasn’t... more alpha ... more money ... more reliably. 

Alternative data, to most, means tracking Twitter and Facebook sentiment, but confining your definition to that limits potential alpha. 

New sources of data are being mined everywhere, and are letting investors understand trends “before they happen.”

For example, mobile devices, low-cost sensors, and a host of new technologies have led to an explosion of new potential data sources to use directly for predictive insight or indirectly to help improve models.

In addition, private company performance, logistics data, and satellite imagery are becoming popular data sets in a data scientist’s alpha creation toolbox. 

There are often concerns about the cost and completeness of these datasets, but as we get better at creating and using them, both will improve. 

It also doesn’t always have to be confidential or challenging to find information. Traders now have access to vast amounts of structured and unstructured data. An important source that many overlook is the data produced through their own process or the metadata from their own trades or transactions.

In the very near future, I expect these systems to be able to go out and search for different sources of information. It's almost like the algorithm becomes an omnivore. Instead of simply looking at market data or transactional data, or even metadata, it starts to look for connections or feedback loops that are profitable in sources of data that the human would never have thought of. – Howard Getson

In a word of caution, there are two common mistakes people make when making data-driven decisions. First, people often become slaves to the data, losing focus on the bigger picture. Second, even the most insightful data can’t predict black swans. It’s important to exercise caution.

The thing about “sustainable alpha” is that while one might be able to achieve it, you can’t expect to have it doing the same thing everyone else does (or by doing what you’ve always done).

Markets change, and what worked yesterday won’t necessarily work today or tomorrow. Trading is a zero-sum game, and as we move toward the future, this only gets more apparent. 

The future of Data is bright, but it’s also littered with potential challenges. Privacy concerns and misuse of data have been hot button topics, as have fake news and the ability of systems to generate misleading data. In addition, as we gain access to more data, our ability to separate signal from noise becomes more important.

The question becomes, how do you capitalize on data, without becoming a victim to it? 

Food for thought!

Thriving Through The AI Revolution

The world is poised on the cusp of an economic and cultural shift as dramatic as that of the Industrial Revolution. - Steven Levy

Artificial Intelligence is one of my favorite things to talk about ... It makes so much possible! 

In a previous article, I mentioned that forecasts expect AI to impact or eliminate up to 50% of current jobs. Nevertheless, I think that is the start of the story. The ultimate impact will be more significant and more positive than most people expect.

Freeing humans to do more has always been a boon to society. Electricity put a lot of people out of work ... but, look what it made possible.

We'd be naive to think AI isn't going to influence the job market, but that doesn't mean you can't navigate that shift. 

A Look At Industrial Revolutions

The Industrial Revolution has two phases: one material, the other social; one concerning the making of things, the other concerning the making of men. - Charles A. Beard

There are several turning points in our history where the world changed forever. Former paradigms and realities became relics of a bygone era. 

Today, we're at another turning point.

Tomorrow's workforce will require different skills and face different challenges than we do today. You can consider this a Fourth Industrial Revolution. Compare today's changes to our previous industrial revolutions. 

• First industrial revolution - Discovery of the steam engine and creation of factories
• Second industrial revolution - Introduction of the assembly line and mass production
• Third industrial revolution - The world wide web and computers connect the world together, heralding the digital age. 

Each revolution shared multiple similarities. They were disruptive. They were centered on technological innovation. They created concatenating socio-cultural impact.

The fourth shares all the same hallmarks.

We're harnessing new technologies like AI, the IoT, renewable energy, and the blockchain. Automation will reach new levels in this revolution. But there also will be an explosion of new fields, new markets, and new necessary skillsets - it's going to impact the world as holistically as electricity did. 

How will humans create value in an increasingly automated world?

I believe that, if managed well, the Fourth Industrial Revolution can bring a new cultural renaissance, which will make us feel part of something much larger than ourselves: a true global civilization. I believe the changes that will sweep through society can provide a more inclusive, sustainable and harmonious society. But it will not come easily. - Klaus Schwab

One of the distinctions I've recently made about the industrial revolutions is that for a long time, technology helped humans act like robots. Think about a plow and a farmer, or a seamstress and a sewing machine. After that, it helped robots try to act like humans, which you've seen more recently. 

I believe we're at another inflection point, where new capabilities will free up humans to be more human and to pursue more of what they really want. 

Robots can do many things, but they've yet to match the creativity and emotional insight of humanity. As automation spreads to more jobs, the need for management, creativity, and decision-making won't go anywhere ... they may be bolstered by data analytics, but they won't disappear. 

Our uniqueness and flexibility rightly protect our usefulness. AI and automation free us up to be our best selves and to explore new possibilities. 

These are exciting times!

The Promise And Peril of AI with Alan Olsen

In 2017, I shot my first video with Alan Olsen. Alan is a wealth manager to the ultra-affluent.  His American Dreams show is immensely popular with the High-Net-Worth demographic in Silicon Valley.

Alan's show is about finding your path in life, and what it takes to make businesses thrive through adversity and challenging times. 

In my first video with him, we talked about defining a meaningful life. We started by talking about my career path from a young lawyer to spending over 25 years running tech companies ... and the lessons learned along the way.

I recently shot a new video with him – this time on the promise and peril of AI. It has over 3,500 Likes on YouTube.  Watch it here.

 

via The American Dreams Show

The main issue addressed during the video is how you can best get what you want as the world changes and forces like AI terraform the world and your role in it. 

It's worth watching.

Ultimately, I believe AI is simply another vehicle freeing human nature. As AI does what humans used to ... you have an opportunity to choose what to do with the freedom you get.  Will you relax or lift your gaze to something better?  The choice is yours.

Similarly, some will want to direct new AI capabilities towards things they want to monetize better.  Others will want to weaponize AI.  Still others will use it to spread peace and love. 

You've seen it with nuclear power (and a host of other technological capabilities) ... tools aren't good or bad in and of themselves - it is what people use those capabilities for that determines their impact. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 24th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Resilience Is About How You Recharge, Not How You Endure. (HBR)
• Can this Company Take Pet Cloning Mainstream? (TexasMonthly)
• China's Test of Orbital Hypersonic Missile Is a Big Deal. (Dailysignal)
• AI 2041: Ten Visions For Our Future. (NextBigIdea)
• The Head of NASA Says Life Probably Exists Outside Earth. (Quartz)

 

Trading Links:

• Denver Airport's Jobs Fair Hoped For 5K Visitors – Only 100 People Showed Up. (FoxBusiness)
• Trump SPAC Skyrockets As Much As 1,657% Since Deal Was Announced. (CNN)
• Hedge Funds Slash FAANG Exposure to Two-Year Low Before Earnings. (Bloomberg)
• Scoop: Facebook Exec Warns of "More Bad Headlines". (Axios)
• Tesla CFO: Profound Awakening of EV Desirability Has Caught Company Off-Guard. (GCR)

Global Chip Shortage and Automakers

In August, I wrote about the technologies I thought would impact the world most over the next 5-10 years. 

In that article, I also briefly identified the global chip shortage as a supply chain issue impacting millions of businesses, which could also become a significant barrier to businesses adopting A.I. at scale. 

 

via Marketoonist

Let's talk a little bit more about the scale of the shortage. 

Chips (or semiconductors) are used in substantially all the world's electronic devices – and the more complex machines can require not only more chips ... but also more complex chips. For example, a modern car can have anywhere from 500-3000 chips in them. 

When the pandemic hit, consumer demand shifts meant that semiconductor manufacturing had to slow down - and a foreseeable consequence of those actions presents us with the inconvenient truth that scaling back production can take up to a year-and-a-half. With demand increasing, the supply vs. demand ratio is getting more out of whack. 

Luckily for you, semiconductor manufacturers prioritize the more lucrative goods (like smartphones and other consumer electronics), but that means that it will be harder for small businesses to get them - and it's also severely impacting the automotive industry. 

 

via visualcapitalist

You'll notice that the most affected brands have more production in North America. The reason for that discrepancy is that U.S. manufacturers depend heavily on chips from Asia. The Senate has recently approved $52 billion in subsidies for N.A. chip manufacturing, which hopefully will lessen that dependence over time. 

If you were already worried about the skyrocketing prices of houses, you should expect to see a quick rise in the price of vehicles as well. 

Buyer beware!