The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons. The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world. The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.
Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one. A list of the biggest existential risks to humanity includes:
Nuclear War: The threat of nuclear weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.
Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.
Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.
Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not properly regulated and controlled.
Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.
Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.
Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat. So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.
The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947. In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times. The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds. This was a small but significant shift.
Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception.
The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity. Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act. We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions). Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges. With collaboration from the brightest minds across the world and private industry, we have the ability to solve even the world's most significant problems.
I'm proud of our team. We have a shared sense of Mission, Values, and Purpose.
Also, we understand that robots aren't coming for our jobs. We're creating the robots, the AI, and the automation – and it's exciting!
With that said, as tech becomes more capable, some will focus on the promise ... while others will focus on the peril.
We're seeing lots of hyperbolic promise and peril in the news cycle recently because of ChatGPT. Trends in technology news appear to come in cycles, with different names and topics but similar patterns. This is because, despite the constant evolution of technology and the world, human nature remains relatively unchanged.
While browsing a library of our old content, I came across an old news story from a local news channel that discussed finding tech talent and featured Capitalogix. Here's the article. You can watch the video below.
It's not enough to invest in the right ideas or technologies. You have to invest in the right people as well.
"Standing still is moving backward ... so you don't only need new technology, you need a new level of data scientists – a new level of professional that can think about what's possible, rather than how to do what we want to do right now."
Even though we've got an incredible edge now, I recognize that edges decay faster than ever. The trick is to stay ahead.
The future is bright, and the best way to predict the future is to create it.
Last week I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn ... and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 23 years.
Twenty-three years ... That can’t be right? Can it?
For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.
My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school. I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk.
However, depending on your definition, the 23rd anniversary can be true or false. Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration. Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence.
It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object. It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time. The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses. It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.
The name “Capitalogix” did originate in the year 2000 ... and a surprising amount of the original North Star “purpose” still exists. Honestly, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing ... but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.
Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come.
If I had known how difficult it was at the beginning, I probably never would have pursued it. However, knowing how difficult it is, and how challenging it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did because I realize that it’s not just a competitive advantage, it’s a sustainable competitive advantage. It’s easy for people to focus on a capability, it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in difficult conditions. They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger, it’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.
As we celebrate Chinese New Year, it also feels like a new beginning for Capitalogix as we chase after new possibilities and probabilities.
We didn’t come this far — just to come this far! Onwards!
Last week, I talked about the time value of time - and the benefit of quality peer groups.
On Friday, one of those peer groups spent hours talking about the promise and peril of generative AI. While some people remained skeptical or in fear of what tools like ChatGPT made possible.
One of the members shared an AI tool directory that I thought was worth sharing as well. It's called Futurepedia.io
My contribution to the discussion was brief, but it amounts to this ... Nothing you're hearing about AI should scare you. It should scream opportunity. You don't have to rush. AI is at the beginning of a long upwards sloping cycle of impact and capability. However, AI isn't duct tape, and for most, it's not a business ... it's a tool to help you create a bigger future that wasn't possible before. Much like "internet" companies came and went in the late 1990s ... yet almost every company uses the internet in ways that were unimaginable at the beginning of the cycle.
People often get stuck searching for 'something' (often a singular goal or result). But, in their myopia, they miss the possibility of 'or something better.'
In my business, I'm rarely happy to settle for less than I'm aiming for ... but I am willing to happily take the 'or something better'. Nonetheless, it is hard to see (let alone be open to) other targets or possibilities when you myopically focus on achieving the lesser (but specific) goal or target you initially chose to focus upon.
So, here is a thought to ponder ...
What is opportunity, and when does it knock? It never knocks. You can wait a whole lifetime, listening, hoping, and you will hear no knocking. None at all. You are opportunity, and you must knock on the door leading to your destiny. You prepare yourself to recognize opportunity, to pursue and seize opportunity as you develop the strength of your personality, and build a self-image with which you are able to live -- with your self-respect alive and growing. ~ Maxwell Maltz
Imagine what you believe this tipping point indicates is possible personally and professionally.
I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future based on the quality of the people you spend the present with.
That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical.
Over the years, I joined several business-leader peer groups like Strategic Coach, Abundance 360, and Genius Network. These groups are a great way to meet people and learn things ... and they also provide you with access to the benefits of feedback from a group of trusted advisors, perspectives you might otherwise get from a counselor, and a flow of ideas and opportunities that wouldn't have crossed your mind or your desk. They allow participants to see, hear, and discuss things they don't usually think about, talk about, or even notice.
Peer groups are also great at bringing blind spots to your attention and connecting you to trends transforming industries and the world.
In these meetings, you often find a "nugget" in the discussion. Sometimes it stems from what is happening in the world. Sometimes it alerts you to potentially valuable relationships, opportunities, or gadgets. And sometimes, the nugget comes from discussing a common problem or constraint (like the pandemic) with your peers.
This week, several of these groups prompted me to think about time (e.g., not wanting to sell time for money, wanting to live past 100, the "strangeness" of time during the past year, etc.).
Time is funny. Sometimes it seems to fly by ... other times, it seems to stand still. Dan Sullivan uses the example of 10 minutes with a dying loved one compared to holding your hand on a stove for 10 minutes. One seems excruciatingly short, and the other seems excruciatingly long.
The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.
How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?
What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens" – but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person ... doesn't it become more special?
For contrast:
Would you rather spend that time dwelling on a mistake?
What about being angry at something out of your control?
What about doing work that drains you mentally and emotionally?
In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left" and how much more "life" we got out of the last part of my dad's life.
That is just an example, but clearly, it is worth taking the concept further.
To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, experiences you have that are special and make you feel like your best self.
Hitting Flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - "Wow!"
Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
Experiencing peace and relaxation;
Feeling pure joy.
It's easy to get lost and take these moments for granted when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left ... they take a whole new meaning.
How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.
To start, think about different time frames:
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?
Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.
Seriously, try it.
Let me know how it worked for you – and what you chose!
What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022? - How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?
While the whole board isn't correct, there's a surprising amount of prediction accuracy. On some level, predictions benefit from being generally vague. Also, many of the predictions that may not seem as accurate "today" seemed more accurate at some point this year. For example, we heard a lot about NFTs in the first half of the year, and while Big Tech is currently laying off employees, there was massive growth this year.
What are you surprised they got right? In what areas were the predictions most off-base? Why?
And, of course, what are your mega-trend predictions for 2023?
It is officially 2023 ... new year – and a new set of opportunities.
But that's only based on the Gregorian calendar. Those of you that have followed me for a while know I often go to Asia for Chinese New Year (Gong Xi Fa Cai!) ... but that's also only one of many New Years.
While the following chart is a day late (and thus, a year out-of-date from a Gregorian perspective), it is a handy little guide for knowing what year it is. Check it out.
Like most things, time is relative. It can seem to go fast, it can seem to go slow ... sometimes it seems like it stands still. It's a matter of perspective. As we just saw, so is the calculation of what year it is. But, so too is the perspective of what you pay attention to, what you make it mean, and what you choose to do. There's no absolute "right" – only a seemingly endless stream of choices and opportunities.
I hope you had a productive and happy 2022 – and an even better 2023.
One of my go to claims about AI is that it can do almost anything ... but it can't do everything. Specific AI systems are becoming incredibly robust. Last year, I wrote an article emphasizing how big of a jump GPT-3 was from past language processors. I also shared a Seinfeld sketch created by GPT-3 that was so good it was almost unimpressive ... it just felt like a Seinfeld sketch.
It feels like every week, there's a new breakthrough in pop AI. OpenAI just released ChatGPT (for free) to the public. The promise of ChatGPT is to give a cogent reply to conversational discussions. It can help you code, it can write a poem, can answer your questions, and more. The code it produces is stellar, and it can even create a convincing romantic comedy using characters from various famous shows. It does a lot very well, but it does have some failings.
GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. This was impressive enough, but ChatGPT is actually not based on GPT-3 but GPT3.5 an even more robust model that improved on the ability to answer in a way that feels natural.
ChatGPT can talk about almost any topic you can think of, and even create prose that feels human; however, it's not perfect yet.
Unfortunately, this chatbot fails in many of the same ways as its predecessors. To start, it can present false information as true because it's essentially a "stochastic parrot" basing its answers on statistical regularities in its data sources, not on an actual understanding of the world. As well, a lot of its answers can include meaningless fluff that sounds good but doesn't actually answer the question meaningfully ... almost like a high schooler that forgot to read the book before writing an essay. It also can't produce ASCII art despite the advancements in AI art we've recently discussed.
Regardless of ChatGPTs faults, it's a very impressive piece of software. It can answer trivia like Google, write poetry and dialogue, it can pretend to engage in philosophic discussion, and it can help you correct your code or improve your writing.
Here's a sonnet I had it write about Artificial Intelligence:
AI, the future's shining light, A force that shapes our world anew, A source of endless possibility, A tool that cuts our burdens in two.
From language translation to deep learning, AI's capabilities are vast and grand, It helps us solve problems, find solutions, And gives us new ways to understand.
But with great power comes great responsibility, As AI transforms our world and lives, We must ensure that it's used ethically, That it helps, rather than subverts or deprives.
So let us embrace this technological marvel, And use it wisely, for the common good, For AI has the power to unravel Our deepest mysteries, as well as hurdles.
It does what it is supposed to do very well. It is much more conversational and robust than previous chatbots. Obviously, it doesn't do everything well, and I doubt a chatbot will any time soon. Nonetheless, it is a step forward … and it will create ripples of progress.
In the past, most profitable companies built or sold some sort of tangible product. The Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, land owners, etc.
Over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, the leaders are in tech, IP, and other intangible assets. Here is a chart showing the changing weight of tangible and intangible assets as part of the S&P 500’s total assets between 1975 and 2020.
By VisualCapitalist’s definition, intangible assets are holdings that don’t carry any physical or financial embodiment. This includes R&D, intellectual property, and computerized information such as data and software. Today, intangibles are worth over $21 trillion.
With technology becoming more ubiquitous, I think the trend will continue - which makes protecting your intangibles even more important.
Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge - so be careful with your trade secrets.
There's a new trend of AI-generated profile pictures - using tools like avatar.ai.
Below are some sample results my son, Zach, got after downloading an iPhone app called Lensa. The company that makes it also offers a product called Prisma that is worth looking at as well. He paid $4 within Lensa to generate these AI photos (for context, avatar.ai charges more than 5x as much). He uploaded 17 photos from different angles (and with different expressions), and the app promised 50 pieces from 4 styles.
What do you think of the results? I thought some of them were surprisingly good.
Some were not so good ... (or at least outside my zone of artistic preferences).
After seeing his, I'll admit I got curious and made my own.
To be honest, these apps are still volatile ... meaning, sometimes they are good enough to seriously impress – but they also can underwhelm from time to time. Check out DALL-E for more examples of the dynamic range of possibilities and results.
Regardless, I am impressed with AI art's progress and momentum. Recently, generative AI has gotten a lot of hate (along with the hype), nonetheless, people are talking about it (meanwhile AI art is still not as polarizing as Kanye).
The reality is, most of these tools still are an elegant use of brute force. Nonetheless, I am bullish. Hardware and software are getting better ... and when fed more data, generative art depictions get better as well.
The uses continue to get more elegant and complex as time passes ... but we're still coding the elegance.
Time's Ticking On The Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons. The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world. The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.
Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one. A list of the biggest existential risks to humanity includes:
Nuclear War: The threat of nuclear weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.
Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.
Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.
Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not properly regulated and controlled.
Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.
Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.
Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat. So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.
The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947. In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times. The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds. This was a small but significant shift.
Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception.
The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity. Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act. We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions). Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges. With collaboration from the brightest minds across the world and private industry, we have the ability to solve even the world's most significant problems.
If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity.
Onwards!
Posted at 05:12 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Market Commentary, Religion, Science, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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