Capitalogix

Tikkun Olam & Kintsugi: Happy Rosh Hashanah

Yesterday, I celebrated the Jewish New Year - Rosh Hashanah - with my family and our friend Ben Hardy.

Ben joined us for services and lunch at one of our favorite local delis.

Next week is Yom Kippur, which is the Day of Atonement in the Jewish religion.

As part of the holiday, participants read a list of sins (available here), apologize for those committed, and ask for forgiveness.  Read the list ... much has changed, but apparently, human nature hasn’t.  

Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

To help mark the importance of the day, participants read a poem called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt that captures the spirit. 

Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor), or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.  Your choices about these things have very real power to create the experience and environment you will live in during the next year.

As we shared our holiday with Ben, I started to think about what lessons from other cultures we could leverage in our interpretation of the day.  One concept came straight to mind ... the Japanese art of Kintsugi. In Kintsugi, the Japanese mend broken pottery by gilding the fractures with gold, silver, or platinum.  This treats the breaks and damage as an element that adds value and enhances the beauty of an object (preserving a part of its history) - rather than something that simply diminishes the object. 

This concept is an excellent reminder as we try to repair some of the breaks happening in the American culture war, and the damages of the isolation and death during COVID.  Our steps backward are just as much a part of our journey as our steps forward.  As you heal, it is also important to remember to heal the world around you as well.  In the Jewish faith, that concept is called Tikkun Olam. 

One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you’re only ever one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others.  As you recognize and repent for your sins, it’s important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well. 

100 Days Left

There are just over 100 days before the start of 2024.  Many will spend those 100 days stressing about the upcoming elections, grumbling about how 2020 was mishandled, and pretending it’s the universe’s fault they didn’t accomplish what they set their mind to ... yet, 100 days is enough time to sprint, to make a change, and to end the year on a high note. 

There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet.  What can you do?  What will you do?

What could you do to make the life of someone around you better?  Likewise, how can you let others know you’re thankful for them?

To reference a book by Ben Hardy (and Dan Sullivan), transformational change is often easier than incremental change (because you don’t have to drag the past forward).

So, what can you do that would trigger 10X results?   Will you?

I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  

Best wishes for a great day, and an even better year!

Sign Up For My New AI Newsletter

I'm launching a new newsletter - with a twist.  The newsletter will be fully automated and produced by an AI we are training to pick out the articles to highlight and share.

 

Don't Let the Past Get In the Way of the New.

Even though a lot of what I think and write about is innovation, exponential technologies, and automation ... until now, what we write and send has been the result of human effort rather than artificial intelligence or technology. 

Sure, portions of the process leverage technology ... but humans have written the vast majority of what you read here. 

It takes many hours a week.  Frankly, many more hours than you would guess!  

Still, I enjoy working on the Weekly Commentary and the list of links that I share.  It is a labor of love (or OCD?) that I have been producing for about twenty years!

If you aren't a subscriber yet, please click here to get it!

We currently send out two weekly e-mails.  The one that comes out on Fridays is a hand-curated list of links that I found interesting during the week.  The Sunday edition has two articles written by me and my son, Zach, along with a few more links. 

Deep down, I know that AI is now good enough to curate a high-quality list of articles in a more efficient, effective, and certain way than what I produce.

So, we are about a week away from launching this.

 

 

This is my John Henry Versus The Machine.

And I'll tell you what – I'm worried.

The new AI-generated newsletter is really good. 

 

Why Play a Losing Game? 

I know that I will lose ... But I also know that I will win.  And so will you!

This does not have to be an "either-or" decision.  This is a "both-and" decision.  Meaning ... I don't have to decide whether to stop producing by hand, in order to also produce with AI.

One of the challenges with AI is that the fitness function you choose significantly impacts the result you achieve.

If the purpose of the newsletter was only to produce a quality newsletter in less time, with less effort, and with greater certainty that readers engage ... then the result is inevitable.  The AI newsletter wins.

However, I didn't choose to produce the newsletter for the newsletter.  The newsletter is a natural result of my nature. I did the research because I wanted to do the research.

I am naturally curious and passionate about these things.  It's what I think about.  It's who I am ... and what I do.

The Weekly Commentary and Link List are strategic byproducts of something that I'm going to choose to do anyway,

 

AI Won't Replace the Real Magic.

One of my beliefs about AI is that you shouldn't use it to replace your Unique Ability.  In other words, don't try to automate, delegate,  or outsource something you are great at, if it gives you energy.  The goal is to magnify "magic," not replace it.  The goal is to spotlight and support those areas by taking away things that are frustrating, bothersome, distracting, or taking cycles away from something that would produce a greater result with less energy.

The point is, I can do both.  I will still do research because it gives me pleasure, knowledge, and a greater likelihood of continuing to learn and grow. I will continue to write and curate. 

Why?  Because it's also an important part of my thinking process.  I think when I speak.  I think when I write.  But more importantly, I think when I am preparing to speak or write.  I wouldn't be me if I didn't go through that process.  I also don't believe my ideas or opinions would continue evolving without the challenge and effort.

And I will also enjoy evolving new and different channels of communication.

Hopefully, we all benefit.

So, I hope you sign up for the new newsletter. We'll be sending out the first e-mail within the next week or two. 

As I've said, I love writing and researching.  I'm an innovator at heart. 

Many read my articles because of my commitment to AI, new technologies, and the future.  Most of my exploration has been centered on Capitalogix and our Amplified Intelligence Platform.  But there are a lot of exciting new use cases of AI, and I'm exploring many of those apps right now. 

For example, as you could have guessed, one such use that I'm excited about is AI-curated newsletters.  Many people I trust and respect have started using Daily.AI, including Peter Diamandis, Dan Sullivan, Joe Polish, and Chris Voss. It's clearly a successful modality. 

 

A Thousand Mile Journey Starts With a Single Step.

Hopefully, you are excited about the new newsletter and the value you will get from it.

I'm confident it will only improve – because it learns from what you value. 

To start, the newsletter will focus on these three topic areas: 

1. How to build a resilient business in a fast-changing world
2. The Psychology of technology & technology addiction
3. Business ethics and AI ethics in today's world. 

But that is just the starting point.  It is set up to consider the same type of offshoots as I normally would.  So, it will remain diverse and educational. 

Please sign up and let me know what you think about it.   

Media Bias and You in 2023

Information is Power.

Consequently, your choice of information source heavily contributes to your perceptions, ideas, and worldview.

Coincidently, news sources are a lightning rod for vitriol and polemic.

I am still somewhat surprised by the abject hatred I hear expressed toward a particular news source by those who hold an opposing bias.  This often leads to claims of fake news, delusion, and partisan press.  Likewise, it is common to hear derision toward anyone who consumes that news source.

Perhaps the reality is that most sources are flawed – and the goal should simply be to find information that sucks less?

It's to the point where if you watch the news, you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news, you're uninformed. 

News sources aren't just reporting the news ... they're creating opinions and arguments that become the news.  Moreover, many consumers don't care enough to think for themselves or to distinguish facts from opinions.

Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank on various scales.  It has default options and over 1400 sources you can add to the interactive version.  You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details.  It gets updated every year, and this year's just got released.

via Ad Fontes Media

I once spent fifteen minutes arguing about how you know whether the information in this chart is accurate.  If you're curious about their methods, click here. 

The "new normal" is to distrust news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

Perhaps even more dangerous is the amount of fake news and haphazard research shared on social media.  Willful misrepresentations of complex issues are now a "too common" communication tactic on both sides ... and the fair and unbiased consideration of issues suffers.  

Social media spreads like wildfire, and the damage is done by the time it has been debunked (or proven to be an oversimplification).  Once people are "convinced," it is hard to get beyond that. 

In reality, things aren't as bleak as they seem.  People agree on a lot more than they say they do.  It is often easier to focus on "us" versus "them" rather than what we agree upon jointly.  This is true on a global scale.  We agree a lot.  Most Democrats aren't socialists, and most Republicans aren't fascists ... and the fact that our conversation has drifted there is intellectually lazy.

This idea that either side is trying to destroy the country is clearly untrue (OK, mostly untrue).  There are loonies on the fringes of any group, but the average Democrat is not that unlike the average Republican.  You don't have to agree with their opinions, but you should be able to trust that they want our country to succeed. 

I don't know that we have a solution.  But there is one common "fake news" fallacy I want to explain at least a little. 

It's called the Motte and Bailey fallacy.  It's named after a style of medieval castle prioritizing military defense.

Launceston Castle via Chris Shaw, CC BY-SA 2.0

On the left is a Motte, an artificial mound often topped with a stone structure, and on the right is a Bailey, the enclosed courtyard.  The Motte serves to protect not only itself but also the Bailey. 

As a form of argument, an arguer conflates two positions that share similarities.  One of the positions is easy to defend (the Motte), and the other is controversial (the Bailey).  The arguer advances the controversial position, but when challenged, insists they're only advancing the moderate position.  Upon retreating, the arguer can claim that the Bailey hasn't been refuted or that the critic is unreasonable by equating an attack on the Bailey with an attack on the Motte. 

It's a common method used by newscasters, politicians, and social media posters alike.  And it's easy to get caught in it if you don't do your research. 

Conclusion

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe ... so it is hard to change a belief (even in the face of contrary evidence). 

But, hopefully, in learning about these fallacies, and being aware, we do better. 

I will caution that blind distrust is dangerous – because it feels like critical thought without forcing you to think critically.

Distrust is good ... but too much of a good thing is bad. 

Not everything is a conspiracy theory or a false flag.

Do research, give more credence to experts in a field - but don't blindly trust them either.  How well do you think you're really thinking for yourself?

We live in a complicated world that is getting more complex. 

Hopefully, knowing this encourages you to get outside your bubble and learn more about those with whom you disagree.

Who knows ... Something good may come from it?

Social Media Is Changing Everything ... 10+ Years Later

In 2009, I wrote an article highlighting the audacious amount of texts and data my then-16-year-old son was using compared to the rest of the family ... It's funny to look back on.

Here is an excerpt from that post. 

_______

My son won't use e-mail the way I did. So how will people communicate and collaborate in the next wave of communications?

 Here is a peek into the difference that is taking hold.  I was looking at recent phone use.  The numbers you are about to see are from the first 20 days of our current billing cycle.

• My wife, Jennifer, has used 21 text messages and 38 MB of data.
• I have used 120 text messages and 29 MB of data.
• My son, at college, used 420 text messages, and is on a WiFi campus so doesn't use 3G data.
• My son, in high school, used 5,798 text messages and 472 MB of data.

How can that be?  That level of emotional sluttiness makes porn seem downright wholesome. 

But, of course, that isn't how he sees it.  He is holding many conversations at once.  Some are social; some are about the logistics of who, what, when, where and why … some are even about homework.  Yet, most don't use full sentences, let alone paragraphs.  There is near instant gratification.  And, the next generation of business people will consider this normal.

Is social media a fad? Or is it the biggest shift since the Industrial Revolution?

_______

Fourteen years later, I send more text messages than my son, and we both use multiples of that amount of data a month. 

I also remember scoffing at my son having his phone on hand at meetings - that it was a distraction. And yet, here I am, phone on my desk at meetings. But, e-mail is just as important as it was in 2009. 

One of the things we miss in discussions about generations is that the trends of the younger generation are often adopted by the previous - even if they're not as tech literate. 

Technology changes cultures for better or worse ... but it's hard to look at the impact of social media and believe it hasn't been deleterious. 

The promise and peril of technology! 

Are You Ready For Some Football?

Are you ready for some Football?

Yesterday was the Cowboys' first preseason game. 

It wasn't exactly the prettiest (partly because it was the first game of the season, but also because many of the starters sat the game out to avoid injury).  With that said, it was still a fantastic experience.  The NFL (and Jerry Jones) knows how to put on a show. 

 

It's Easy to Feel Good at the Start of a Season.

Lots of people ask me how the Cowboys look this year.  The truth is, at this point in the season, it's impossible to know because injuries have a dramatic impact on the game.  

Regardless, each year I choose to be optimistic about the chance of a post-season run. 

That kind of logic (or lack there of) is why I think automated trading is better than humans attempting to do it themselves.  It's a way to make objective decisions and eliminate fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.

On the other hand, it feels so good to hope!

A Lesson From the Game.

I had an interesting discussion at the game yesterday.  My guest commented that Jerry Jones is a fantastic business person - which is hard to argue - but probably shouldn't be running the team.  He believes the team needs a change of pace to switch things up. 

While I don't know if that's why we tend to struggle so much more late in the season, it reminded me of a great business lesson. 

Entrepreneurs often mistake their domain expertise for general expertise.  "I'm fantastic because I'm fantastic at all these different things." And the result is they overestimate their ability to be great at things outside their unique ability.  A similar issue is that many people believe they are deep thinkers, because they think deeply about what they think about.  However, they often don't realize how narrow their range of thinking is, and how many things fall outside their expertise, interest, or even consideration.

Less Is Often More.

Learning to offload tasks that you may not be as fantastic at as others is a great way to free up time to focus on not only the things that you're great at – but also bring you joy and energy. 

Hope that helps!

How 'bout them Cowboys!

E.M.I.G.L.I.O: The Electronic Mechanical Industrial Generated For Logical Infiltration and Observation Robot

I have an old toy robot in my office that my kids played with when they were little.  Its name is E.M.I.G.L.I.O.

Even though it is a toy, this Italian-made robot was interesting technology when it came out.  It was remote-controlled, the remote had a microphone that transformed my voice to sound like a robot, and it had a tray sturdy enough to deliver a video game (or some other surprise) for my kids when they visited the office.

 

Looking back, it's barely even technology, let alone a robot.  But that's because I'm evaluating it based on what's possible now.

I feel the same when I think about my previous company, IntellAgent Control, and what we considered A.I. in the 1990s.  We made a sales automation solution for teams before tools like Salesforce existed.  At the time, the decision logic we used was innovative.  The premise is still valid today, but the technology and implementation scream "relic of a time gone by."

As another aside ... when I searched for Emiglio (in order to write this article), I was astonished by the archive of old robots someone had put together. The site is like a specialized Wikipedia site for toy robots.  Each of the entries has high-quality photos of the robots and their packaging.  It also includes facts, marketing copy, ads, and patents. 

It is kind of cool ... Kind of like Emiglio.

It got me thinking about how much of history - and esoteric knowledge - only exists because a tiny community of people decided it needed to be cataloged or preserved.

Garbage In – Garbage Out.  Nothing In – Nothing Out.  What are we missing from the past because history is often written by the winner (or because no one volunteered to chronicle what happened)?

Even a site like Wikipedia has some serious content curation issues.  For example, the top 50 Wikipedia editors have each contributed more than 500,000 edits.  Think how much is missing.

Soon A.I. will decide what to write about what it decided happened, what to save and for how long, and what to say when asked about it.

Not only will the future be different ... even the past will be remembered differently.

Just a thought! 

Time Flies - Another Year, Another Lesson

Thursday was my 60th birthday.  I can't believe how time flies.  Birthdays seem to come more quickly as you get older.

It makes sense, though, I suppose.  When you were four, a birthday represented a quarter of your life.  Now, a year represents a much smaller percentage.

While it's not always pleasant getting older, it sure beats the alternative!

This year, I made a concerted effort to be more healthy, fit, and vital in mind, body, and spirit. I said I wanted to sprint into 60, rather than roll into it.

If you are going to live longer, your future has to be compelling to you.  Otherwise, who would want to extend their stay?  That is why I strive to keep my future bigger than my past.  

As time marches on, I become increasingly grateful for the friends and family who share the journey with me.  This year, I spent my birthday in San Diego, surrounded by family and some close friends.  On Saturday, they surprised me with a "Birthday Palooza," celebrating my 60th along with my wife Jennifer's 50th. 

 

 

When I was a kid, I couldn't imagine being where I am today ... nor could I imagine the path that got me here. 

Looking back, it all seems to make sense (even though it felt pretty random while making my way through it).

I feel lucky to have been in the right place at the right time, so consistently, and to find the gift in most situations (even when it seemed so well hidden).

I'm grateful for a lot today, and as much as I love innovation, sometimes things are perfect just the way they are. 

Hopefully, you took time this weekend to let someone know they're important to you.  If not, now is a good time for that too.

Onwards!

Do You Think the U.S. Has Aliens?

I'll admit to being fascinated by the idea of aliens.  Growing up in the 60s and 70s, there was no shortage of science fiction fantasies imagining what a space-faring civilization would look like and, more importantly, what would we, the Earthlings, do when they made contact. 

Last year, there was a U.S. congressional hearing on Unidentified Flying Objects.  While there wasn't any proof of aliens, they did admit to phenomena they couldn't explain with their current information.

Now, we have multiple former military officials testifying in a House of Representatives meeting that the U.S. has recovered not only spacecraft but alien biological matter for decades.  While I do believe in the possibility of aliens, I remain skeptical.

There are many stories (or theories) about how we had encountered aliens before and just kept them secret.  For example, in 2020, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that Aliens from a Galactic Federation had contacted us - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high probability estimates for their existence. 

Let's simplify the issues and arguments in the Fermi Paradox.  There are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies).  Each of these stars is similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets.  Further, it isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than ours.  Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd.  Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and the length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables, including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks - or that there might have been others in the past, or others may develop in the distant future. 

What do you think?

Here's another article I wrote on the subject, titled "Are We Alone In The Universe?"

Finally, here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Life After Death ... Will A.I. Help you Live Forever?

My Aunt recently passed away. She was my Dad's sister ... and she was a fantastic person. She was loving and kind. She was a natural-born caregiver, And she was as sharp as a tack. What wouldn't we give for another moment with her? My response to her death reminded me of my feelings when my Dad passed away. 

This time, the conversation was a little different. People asked me if I thought that A.I. would enable us to live on after our bodies started to give out on us. I recorded some of my thoughts. 

 

I don't think A.I. will give us life after death.

I do believe technology will get good enough to create a replica of you - that talks like you, responds like you, and even comforts people who miss you. 

I don't believe technology can capture whatever part of us doesn't live in our bodies. Whether you call it our soul (or something else), I don't think that will ever get uploaded to the matrix, so you live on. 

And, I think that's okay. Part of the beauty of existence is the transience, the joy, the suffering, and the range of human experience. That is a big part of what we call life.

When my Dad was dying, every moment took on new meaning. Not only did time seem to slow down, but there was a weight and intimacy that's often taken for granted. 

What do you think?

Rewriting The Past, Present, and Future

"Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace." - Nixon's Apollo 11 Disaster Speech

In an ideal world, history would be objective; facts about what happened, unencumbered by the bias of society, or the victor, the narrator, etc.

I think it's apparent that history as we know it is subjective.  The narrative shifts to support the needs of the society that's reporting it.  History books are written by the victors. 

The Cold War is a great example where, during the war, immediately after the war, and today, the interpretation of the causes and events has all changed.  

But while that's one example, to a certain degree, we can see it everywhere.  We can even see it in the way events are reported today.  News stations color the story based on whether they're red or blue, and the internet is quick to jump on a bandwagon even if the information is hearsay. 

Now, what happens when you can literally rewrite history?

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.“ - Orwell, 1984

That's one of the potential risks of generative AI and deepfake technology.  As it gets better, creating "supporting evidence" becomes easier for whatever narrative a government or other entity is trying to make real.

On July 20th, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed safely on the moon.  They then returned to Earth safely as well. 

MIT recently created a deepfake of a speech Nixon's speechwriter William Safire wrote during the Apollo 11 mission in case of disaster.  The whole video is worth watching, but the speech starts around 4:20. 

 

MIT via In Event Of Moon Disaster

Media disinformation is more dangerous than ever.  Alternative narratives and histories can only be called that when they are discernible from the truth.  In addition, people often aren't looking for the "truth" – instead, they are prone to look for information that already fits their biases. 

As deepfakes get better, we'll also get better at detecting them.  But it's a cat-and-mouse game with no end in sight.  In Signaling Theory, it's the idea that signalers evolve to become better at manipulating receivers, while receivers evolve to become more resistant to manipulation.  We're seeing the same thing in trading with algorithms. 

In 1983, Stanislav Petrov saved the world. Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for a Russian nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the U.S., followed by up to five more.  Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm and didn't authorize retaliation (and a potential nuclear WWIII where countless would have died). 

But messaging is now getting more convincing.  It's harder to tell real from fake.  What happens when a world leader has a convincing enough deepfake with a convincing enough threat to another country?  Will people have the wherewithal to double-check?

Lots to think about. 

I'm excited about the possibilities of technology, and I believe they're predominantly good.  But, as always, in search of the good, we must acknowledge and be prepared for the bad.