Capitalogix

The Law (And Flaw) Of Averages

The law of averages is a principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average.

Take, for example, flipping a coin.  If you happen to get 5 "Heads" in a row, you'd most likely assume the next one should be "Tails" ... even though each flip has a 50/50 chance of landing on either. 

Even from this example, you can tell it's a flawed law.  While there are some reasonable mathematical uses of the law of averages, in everyday life, this "law" mostly represents wishful thinking. 

It's also one of the most common fallacies succumbed to by gamblers and traders. 

The concept of "Average" is more confusing and potentially damaging than you might suspect.

Perhaps you heard the story about how the U.S. Air Force discovered the 'flaw' of averages by creating cockpits based on complex mathematics surrounding the average height, width, arm length, etc., of over 4,000 pilots.  Despite engineering the cockpit to precise specifications, pilots crashed their planes on a too-regular basis. 

The reason?  With hindsight, they learned that very few of those 4,000 pilots were actually "average".  Ultimately, the Air Force re-engineered the cockpit and fixed the problem. 

It's a good reminder that 'facts' can lie, and assumptions and interpretations are dangerous.  It's why I prefer taking decisive action on something known, rather than taking tentative actions about something guessed. 

via ReasonTV

Our Brains and the Illusion of Balance

Our brains are wired to find patterns, even in random events.  This tendency, known as apophenia, can lead us to see connections where none exist.

The Misleading Law of Averages

It's this very tendency that fuels the misconception of the law of averages.  We expect randomness to "even out" because we see patterns in short sequences.  This can be tempting to believe, especially when dealing with chance events.

The law of averages is a common idea that suggests future events will even out past results to reach some average outcome.  For instance, going back to our earlier coin-flipping example,  after getting five heads in a row, it's natural to assume the next flip is "due" to be tails.  However, that's not how probability works.  Each coin flip is an independent event (with a 50% chance of landing on heads or tails), regardless of previous flips.  The coin doesn't "remember" what happened before.

Apophenia isn't limited to coin flips.  For instance, you might see your lucky number appearing repeatedly throughout the day, leading you to believe it has a special meaning – even though each instance is completely independent.

This natural desire for order and predictability can lead us astray when dealing with chance events.

Why is it Flawed?

The law of averages often leads to a misconception called the gambler's fallacy.  This fallacy is the belief that random events can somehow "correct" themselves to reach an average.  In reality, every coin flip, roll of the dice, or spin of the roulette wheel is a fresh start with its own discrete probabilities.  The odds remain the same no matter how long the losing streak persists.

Are there ever times when it applies?

It's important to distinguish the law of averages from the law of large numbers, a well-established statistical principle.  The law of large numbers states that as the number of random events increases, the average outcome gets closer to the expected probability.  This applies in situations where many trials happen, and while past results of individual events are independent, the law describes the behavior of averages over a large number of trials.  For instance, the average weight of a large sample of apples will likely be close to the expected average weight of an apple, even if some individual apples are heavier or lighter than expected.

However, in everyday situations (with a limited number of events), the law of averages is generally not a helpful way to think about chance or probabilities.

Understanding these misconceptions can help us make better decisions and avoid false expectations based on flawed reasoning.

Psychological Reasons Behind the Belief

Human decision-making suffers from a range of tendencies and biases.

Earlier, we discussed the tendency to find patterns, even where none exist.  Next, we will consider cognitive bias.  In our coin-flipping example, it is the representativeness heuristic that makes us assume that small samples should resemble the larger population they come from.

Emotional factors also play a role.  The desire for control in uncertain situations can make us latch onto the law of averages as a comforting notion.  Believing that things will "even out" gives us a sense of predictability and fairness in an otherwise random world.

Additionally, social influences can reinforce these beliefs.  Stories and anecdotes about streaks ending or luck changing often circulate among friends and family, further embedding the misconception into our collective consciousness.

Understanding these psychological reasons helps explain why the law of averages persists despite its flaws.  Recognizing these biases can empower us to think more critically about probability and chance events.

Improving Decision-Making in Gambling and Investing

Recognizing the fallacy of the law of averages can significantly enhance decision-making, particularly in gambling and investing.  Understanding that each event is independent can help participants make more rational choices.  Instead of chasing losses with the hope that a win is "due," savvy speculators understand their odds remain constant and may choose to walk away or set strict limits on their betting behavior.

In investing, this knowledge is equally crucial.  Many factors influence markets.  Nonetheless, believing that a stock "must" rebound after a series of declines too often leads to poor investment decisions.  Investors who grasp that past performance does not dictate future results are better equipped to evaluate investments based on fundamentals rather than emotions or flawed expectations.

By dispelling these misconceptions, you can approach gambling or investing with a clearer mindset, reducing the risk of substantial losses driven by erroneous beliefs about probability and chance.

You can also eliminate fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes by relying on algorithms to calculate realtime expectancy scores and take the road less stupid.  Take a different kind of chance.  Just ask our AI Overlords; they'll tell you what to expect!

Father's Day Weekend Reflections

My adult son took me to a Pixar movie and Dallas' version of NY Deli today for Father's Day. 

Pixar movies never cease to amaze me.  Whether you're a child, a teenager, or an adult, there's always something to enjoy and take away from them.

I especially enjoyed watching it next to my 31-year-old son and noticing that he responded emotionally to the same scenes I did.  On one hand, it felt good to see what he processed and how he internalized things similar to the way I do.  On the other hand, I thought, genetics is a bitch.

Jokes aside, having great kids is a double blessing.  It's nice to be proud of who your kids are and the things they do.  It's also nice to feel proud of the small part you played in helping them become who they are.

In addition, this weekend, I spent some time thinking about my father and what a terrific influence he had on so many lives.

  

 

My Dad was incredibly loving ... yet he was also incredibly demanding.

For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, I watched him run down from the stands.  I figured he was coming down to celebrate.  Instead, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was disappointed that I did not throw a personal best that day?  I replied: "But Dad, I won." He smiled and recognized that winning was important too ... then he reminded me that the other throwers were not my real competition.  To be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself ... and we both knew I could do better.

My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He explained that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted by other things and how to meet the minimum standards for them as well.

The point is to set a higher standard and to have a better life.

Here is another one of his favorite sayings.  "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things.  For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them. 

Here is something else worth sharing.  "It's not over until we win!"  This concept underscores the importance of resilience, commitment, and grit.  My Dad emphasized that many people quit when they're on the brink of victory, simply because they don't realize how close they are.  

This has led me to develop several practices.  For example, if I pick up a book, I won't put it down until I finish a chapter.  If I start a game, I can't stop until I exceed a specific score or level.  And when I exercise, there's no way I'd ever stop before finishing a set.

Integrating these concepts involves aligning your head, heart, and feet.  What I mean is that it's one thing to know the saying.  It's another to make it a value or belief.  And it's another thing altogether to make it a practice. 

Well, that should explain a little of my dysfunction ...  but, if you can't mess up your own kids, whose kids can you mess up?

Hopefully, you had a happy Father's Day weekend.

Making News Beautiful Again

My mother watches the news religiously.  To her credit, she watches a variety of sources and creates her own takeaways based on them.  Regardless, there's a common theme in all the sources she watched – they focus on fear or shock-inducing stories with a negative bias.  As you might guess, I hear it when I talk with her.

While I value being informed, I also value things that nourish or make you stronger (as opposed to things that make you weak or less hopeful).

Negativity Sells. 

Sure, news sources throw in the occasional feel-good story as a pattern interrupt ... but their focus skews negative.  History shows that stories about improvement or the things that work simply don't grab eyeballs, attention, or ratings as consistently as negativity-focused stories do.

The reality is that negativity sells.  If everything were great all the time, people wouldn't need to buy as many products, they wouldn't need to watch the news, and this cycle wouldn't continue.

It's worth acknowledging and understanding the perils our society is facing, but it's also worth focusing on the ways humanity is expanding and improving.

As a brief respite from the seemingly unending stream of doom and gloom, Information Is Beautiful has a section focused on "Beautiful News".  It's a collection of visualizations highlighting positive trends, uplifting statistics, and creative solutions.  It's updated daily and can be sorted by topic.  I suggest you check it out.

 

Beautiful News via Information Is Beautiful

If you're looking for more "good news," here's a list of 10 sources focusing on good news. 

Let me know if you have a site you'd like to share.

Have a great week!

Some Timeless Wisdom From Socrates

Small distinctions separate wise men from fools ... Perhaps most important among them is what the wise man deems consequential. 

This post discusses Socrates' Triple Filter Test, which involves checking information for truth, goodness, and usefulness.  It also explores how this concept applies to decision-making in business and life by focusing on important information and filtering out the rest.  The key to making better choices and staying focused is to avoid damaging or irrelevant information.

Socrates' Triple Filter

In ancient Greece, Socrates was reputed to hold knowledge in high esteem.  One day an acquaintance met the great philosopher and said, "Do you know what I just heard about your friend?"

"Hold on a minute," Socrates replied. "Before telling me anything, I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."

"Triple filter?"

"That's right," Socrates continued.  "Before you talk to me about my friend, it might be a good idea to take a moment and filter what you're going to say. That's why I call it the triple filter test.

The first filter is Truth.  Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"

"No," the man said, "Actually I just heard about it and…"

"All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness.  Is what you are about to tell me about my friend something good?"

"No, on the contrary…"

"So," Socrates continued, "You want to tell me something bad about him, but you're not certain it's true.  You may still pass the test though, because there's one filter left.  The third filter is Usefulness.  Is what you want to tell me about my friend going to be useful to me?"

"No, not really."

"Well," concluded Socrates, "If what you want to tell me is neither true, nor good, nor even useful … then why tell it to me at all?"

With all the divisiveness in both media and in our everyday conversations with friends, family, and strangers ... this is a good filter for what you say, what you post, and even how you evaluate markets, the economy, or a business opportunity. 

How Does That Apply to Me or Trading?

The concept of Socrates' Triple Filter applies to markets as well.

When I was a technical trader, rather than looking at fundamental data and scouring the news daily, I focused on developing dynamic and adaptive systems and processes to look at the universe of trading algorithms to identify which were in phase and likely to perform well in the current market environment.

That focus has become more concentrated as we've transitioned to using advanced mathematics and AI to understand markets. 

Filter Out What Isn't Good For You.

In contrast, there are too many ways that the media (meaning the techniques, graphics, music, etc.), the people reporting it, and even the news itself appeal to the fear and greed of human nature.

Likewise, I don't watch the news on TV anymore.  It seems like story after story is about terrible things.  For example, during a recent visit with my mother, I listened to her watch the news.  There was a constant stream of "oh no," or "oh my," and "that's terrible".  You don't even have to watch the news to know what it says.

These concepts also apply to what you feed your algorithms.  Garbage in, garbage out.  Just because you can plug in more data doesn't mean that data will add value.  Deciding what "not to do" and "what not to listen to" is equally as important as deciding what to do. 

Artificial intelligence is exciting, but artificial stupidity is terrifying. 

What's The Purpose of News for You?

My purpose changes what I'm looking for and how much attention I pay to different types of information.  Am I reading or watching the news for entertainment, to learn something new, or to find something relevant and actionable?

 

 

One of my favorite activities is looking for new insights and interesting articles to share with you and my team.  If you aren't getting my weekly reading list on Fridays - you're missing out.  You can sign up here. 

By the way, I recently found a site, Ground News, that makes it easy to compare news sources, read between the lines of media bias, and break free from the blinders the algorithms put on what we see.  I'd love to hear about tools or sites you think are worth sharing.

Getting back to Socrates' three filters and business, I often ask myself: is it important, does it affect our edge, or can I use it as a catalyst for getting what we want?

There's a lot of noise out there competing for your attention.  Stay focused. 

Onwards!

On The Horizon: Artificial Intelligence Agents

In last week's article on Stanford's AI Index, we broadly covered many subjects. 

There's one I felt like covering in more depth.  It's the concept of AI Agents. 

One way to improve AI is to create agentic AI systems capable of autonomous operation in specific environments.  However, agentic AI has long challenged computer scientists.  The technology is only just now starting to show promise.  Current agents can play complex games, like Minecraft, and are much better at tackling real-world tasks like research assistance and retail shopping. 

A common discussion point is the future of work.  The concept deals with how automation and AI will redefine the workforce, the workday, and even what we consider to be work. 

Up until now, AI has been in very narrow applications.  Powerful applications, but with limited breadth of scope.  Generative AI and LLMs have increased the variety of tasks we can use AI for, but that's only the beginning. 

via Aniket Hingane

AI agents represent a massive step toward intelligent, autonomous, and multi-modal systems working alongside skilled humans (and replacing unskilled workers) in a wide variety of scenarios. 

Eventually, these agents will be able to understand, learn, and solve problems without human intervention.  There are a few critical improvements necessary to make that possible. 

• Flexible goal-oriented behavior
• Persistent memory & state tracking
• Knowledge transfer & generalization
• Interaction with real-world environments

As models become more flexible in understanding and accomplishing their goals and begin to apply that knowledge to new real-world domains, models will go from intelligent-seeming tools to powerful partners with the ability to handle multiple tasks like a human would. 

While they won't be human (or perhaps even seem human), we are on the verge of a technological shift that is a massive improvement from today's chatbots. 

I like to think of these agents as the new assembly line.  The assembly line revolutionized the workforce and drove an industrial revolution, and I believe AI agents will do the same.

As technology evolves, improvements in efficiency, effectiveness, and certainty are inevitable.  For example, with a proverbial army of agents creating, refining, and releasing content, it is easy to imagine a process that would take multiple humans a week getting done by agents in under an hour (even with human approval processes). 

To make it literal, imagine using agents to write this article. One agent can be skilled in writing outlines and crafting headlines.  Another could focus on research and verification of research.  Then you have an agent to write, an agent to edit and proofread, and a conductor agent who makes sure that the quality is up to snuff, and replicates my voice.  If the goal was to make it go viral, there could be a virality agent, an SEO keyword agent, etc.

Separating the activities into multiple agents (instead of trying to craft a vertical integrative agent) reduces the chances of "hallucinations" and self-aggrandization.  It can also theoretically wholly remove the human from the process. 

via Aniket Hingane

Now, I enjoy the writing process.  I'm not trying to remove myself from this process.  But, the capability is still there. 

As agentification increases, I believe humans will still be a necessary part of the feedback loop process.  Soon, we will start to see agent-based companies.  Nonetheless, I still believe that humans will be an important part of the workforce (at least during my lifetime). 

Another reason humans are important is because they are still important gatekeepers ... meaning, humans have to become comfortable with a process to allow it.

Trust and transparency are critical to AI adoption.  Even if AI excels at a task, people are unlikely to use it blindly.  To truly embrace AI, humans need to trust its capabilities and understand how it arrives at its results.  This means AI developers must prioritize building systems that are both effective and understandable.  By fostering a sense of ease and trust, users will be more receptive to the benefits AI or automation offers.

Said a different way, just because AI can do something doesn't mean that you will use the tool or let AI do it.  It has to be done a "certain" way in order for you to let it get done ... and that involves a lot of trust.  As a practical reality, humans don't just have to trust the technology; they also have to trust and understand the process.  That means the person building the AI or creating the automation must consider what it would take for a human to feel comfortable enough to allow the benefit.

Especially as AI becomes more common (and as an increasingly large amount of content becomes solely created by artificial systems), the human touch will become a differentiator and a way to appear premium. 

via Aniket Hingane

In my business, the goal has never been to automate away the high-value, high-touch parts of our work.  I want to build authentic relationships with the people I care about — and AI and automation promise to eliminate frustration and bother to free us up to do just that.

The goal in your business should be to identify the parts in between those high-touch periods that aren't your unique ability - and find ways to automate and outsource them. 

Remember, the heart of AI is still human (at least until our AI Overlords tell us otherwise).

Onwards!

Revisiting Some of My Favorite Podcast Appearances

If you're interested in AI and its impact on business, life, and our world, I encourage you to check out some of my past podcast interviews.

As I work on finishing my book, "Compounding Insights: Turning Thoughts into Things in the Age of AI," I've revisited several old episodes, and some are certainly worth sharing.  I've collected a few here for you to listen to.  Let me know what you think.

In 2021, I recorded two interviews that I especially enjoyed.  The first was done with Dan Sullivan and Steven Krein for Strategic Coach's Free Zone Frontier podcast... and the second was with Brett Kaufman on his Gravity podcast. 

Please listen to them.  They were pretty different, but both were well done and interesting. 

Free Zone Frontier with Dan Sullivan and Steve Krein

Free Zone Frontier is a Strategic Coach program (and podcast) about creating "Free Zones." It refers to the green space where entrepreneurs collaborate and create without competition.

It's a transformative idea for entrepreneurial growth. 

This episode focused on topics like building a bigger future, how decision-making frameworks and technology can extend your edge, and what it takes to get to the next level.   I realize there is a lot of Strategic Coach jargon in this episode.  However, it is still easy to understand, and there was great energy and an elevated conversation about worthy topics.

As an aside, Steve Krein is my cousin, and we joined Strategic Coach entirely separately before realizing we had joined the same group. 

The podcast is 47 Minutes.  I hope you enjoy it.

 

Or click here to listen on Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Apple Podcasts

Gravity Podcast with Brett Kaufman

Usually, I talk about business, mental models, and the future of AI and technology, but Brett Kaufman brought something different out of me. 

Brett's Gravity Project is about living with intention, community, consciousness, and connection.  He focuses on getting people to share their life experiences ... with the intent that others can see themselves in your story. 

In my talk with Brett, we do talk about the entrepreneurial journey ... but we also probe some deep insights by discussing the death of my younger brother, how my life changed almost immediately upon meeting my wife, and why love is the most powerful and base energy in the universe. 

 

This was not a typical conversation for me (a different ratio of head-to-heart), but it was a good one (and I've had many people reach out because of this podcast).  It was fun to revisit my childhood, from playing with a cash register at my grandfather's pharmacy to selling fireflies or sand-painting terrariums; it's funny how those small moments influenced my love for entrepreneurship. 

The episode is 65 minutes.  I hope you enjoy it. 

 

Click here to listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Listen Notes.

Last year, I recorded two other podcasts that I'm excited to share ... It's interesting to see the change in topic and focus - but how much is still the same (timeless). 

Clarity Generates Confidence With Gary Mottershead

I talked with Gary about intentionality, learning from the past, and how AI adoption is more about human nature than technology ... and more. 

 

Click here to listen on Spotify or Gary's Website.

 

Creative On Purpose With Scott Perry

On the surface, this episode may seem like just another conversation about AI, but I value the diverse insights, points of emphasis, and perspectives that different hosts illuminate.

In talking with Scott, we dove deeper into emotional alchemy, self-identity, and how to move toward what you want in life - instead of away from what you don't want. 

 

Click here to listen at Scott's Substack.

I'm currently planning a podcast series called "Frameworks on Frameworks," where we'll explore great ideas, how they work, and how you can use them.

Let me know your thoughts and any topics you want us to cover.

What's Your Three Word Strategy?

A few years ago, I shared a presentation called Mindset Matters that I had given to a small mastermind group.

This past week, I revisited that content in a different group. 

One of my core beliefs is that energy is one of the most important things we can measure.  I believe it so strongly I paid Gaping Void to put it on my wall.

via GapingVoid

It means exactly what it sounds like - but also a lot more.

Energy affects how you feel, what you do, and what you make it mean.  That means it is a great way to measure your values too.  Consequently, even if you don’t recognize it, energy has a lot to do with who you hire and fire.  It affects where you spend your time.  Ultimately, it even affects the long-term vision of our company.  If something brings profit and energy, it is probably worth pursuing. 

In contrast, fighting your energy is one of the quickest ways to burn out.  Figuring out who and what to say “no” to is a crucial part of making sure you stay on the path and reach your goals.

Watch this short video on Mindset Scales.  It is worth your time.

Subscribe to Howard Getson’s YouTube Channel

Three Word Strategies.

I believe that words have power.  Specifically, the words you use to describe your identity and your priorities change your reality. 

First, some background.  Your Roles and Goals are nouns.  That means “a person, place, or thing.” Let's examine some sample roles (like father, entrepreneur, visionary, etc.) and goals (like amplified intelligence, autonomous platform, and sustainable edge).  As expected, they are all nouns. 

Next, we’ll examine your default strategies.   You use these in order to create or be the things you want. The strategies you use are verbs.  That means they define an action you take.  Action words include: connect, communicate, contribute, collaborate, protect, serve, evaluate, curate, share … and love.  On the other end of the spectrum, you could complain, retreat, blame, or block.

People have habitual strategies.  I often say happy people find ways to be happy – while frustrated people find ways to be frustrated.  This is true for many things.

Seen a different way, people expect and trust that you will act according to how they perceive you.

Meanwhile, you are the most important perceiver.

Another distinction worth making is that the nouns and verbs we use range from timely to timeless.  Timely words relate to what you are doing now.  Timeless words are chunked higher and relate to what you have done, what you are doing, and what you will do.

The trick is to chunk high enough that you are focused on words that link your timeless Roles, Goals, and Strategies.  When done right, you know that these are a part of what makes you … “You”.  

My favorite way to do this is through three-word strategies. 

These work for your business, priorities, identity, and more. 

I’ll introduce the idea to you by sharing my own to start. 

Understand.  Challenge.  Transform. 

The actual words are less important than what they mean to me. 

What’s also important is that not only do these words mean something to me, but I’ve put them in a specific order, and I’ve made these words “commands” in my life.  They’re specific, measurable, and actionable.  They remind me what to do.  They give me direction.  And, together, they are a strategy (or process) that creates a reliable result.

First, I understand, because I want to make sure I consider the big picture and the possible paths from where I am to the bigger future possibility that I want.  Then, I challenge situations, people, norms, and more.  I don’t challenge to tear down.  I challenge to find strengths … to figure out what to trust and rely upon.  Finally, I transform things to make them better.  Insanity is doing what you always do and expecting a different result.  This is about finding where small shifts create massive consequences.  It is about committing to the result rather than how we have done things till now.

If I challenged before I knew the situation, or I tried to transform something without properly doing my research, I’d risk causing more damage than good. 

Likewise, imagine the life of someone who protects, serves, and loves.  Compare that to the life of someone who loves, serves, and protects.  The order matters!

There is an art and a science to it.  But it starts by taking the first step.  Try to find your three words.

I’ve set daily alarms on my phone to remind me of these words.  I use them when I’m in meetings, and they’re used to evaluate whether I’m showing up as my best self. 

You can also create three words that are different for the different hats you wear, the products in your business, or how your team collaborates. 

 

Finding Your Three Words 

via FlowingData

Like recipes, your words should have ingredients, orders, and intensities.  As you use your words more, the intensities might change.  For example, when my son was just getting out of college, one of his words was contented because he was focused on all the things he missed from college - instead of being appreciative of the things he had.  Later, his words switched to grateful and then loving.  Evolutions that paired with his personal journeys and represented stronger actions. 

Realize that we create what we want by doing.  As such, choose words that inform or spark the right actions.  You can see that in my son’s words.  As he grew, he became more comfortable actively prompting the actions he wanted to approach life with, instead of just passively hoping for a feeling. 

You can apply these simple three-word strategies almost everywhere once you learn how to create them. 

It’s your life.  It’s your choice.

What are your words?

Can We Rewrite History?

The problem with history is it rarely tells the whole story.

Ideally, history would be presented objectively, recounting facts without the influence of societal bias, the perspective of the victor, or the storyteller's slant. But achieving this is harder than it seems.

Think about your daily life – it is filled with many seemingly innocuous judgments about your perception of the economy, what's happening in the markets, who is a hero, who deserves punishment,  and whether an action is "Just" or "Wrong". 

I'm often surprised by how frequently intelligent people violently disagree on issues that seem clear-cut to them.

It's like a fish in water not realizing it's in water ... Most people don't realize the inherent biases and filters that inform their sense of the world or reality.

This post is an attempt to highlight the importance of diverse perspectives and information sources in building well-informed viewpoints.

Even though most people would agree that genuinely understanding history requires a clear picture, free from bias ... I think it's apparent that history (as we know it) is subjective. The narrative shifts to support the needs of the society reporting it. 

The Cold War is a great example where: during the war, immediately after the war, and today, the interpretation of the causes and events has changed.  

But while that's one example, to a certain degree, we can see it everywhere. We can even see it in the way events are reported today. News stations color the story based on whether they're red or blue, and the internet is quick to jump on a bandwagon even if the information is hearsay. 

Now, what happens when you can literally rewrite history?

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.“ - Orwell, 1984

That's one of the potential risks of deepfake technology. As it gets better, creating "supporting evidence" becomes easier for whatever narrative a government or other entity is trying to make real.

On July 20th, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed safely on the moon. They then returned to Earth safely as well. 

MIT recently created a deepfake of a speech Nixon's speechwriter William Safire wrote during the Apollo 11 mission in case of disaster. The whole video is worth watching, but the speech starts around 4:20. 

MIT via In Event Of Moon Disaster

Can you imagine the real-world ripples that would have occurred if the astronauts died on that journey (or if people genuinely believed they did)? Here is a quote from the press response the Nixon-era government prepared in case of that disaster.

"Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace." - Nixon's Apollo 11 Disaster Speech

Today, alternative histories are becoming some people's realities. Why? Media disinformation is the cause and is more dangerous than ever.

Alternative history can only be called that when it's discernible from the truth, and unfortunately, we're prone to look for information that already fits our biases. 

Today, we also have to increasingly consider the impacts of technology. Deepfakes are becoming more commonplace - with popstar Drake even using AI in a recent record. Now, that was apparent - but scarily, research shows that most can't tell a deepfake from reality (even if they think they can.)

As deepfakes get better, we'll also get better at detecting them, but it's a cat-and-mouse game with no end in sight.

In Signalling theory, it's the idea that signallers evolve to become better at manipulating receivers, while receivers evolve to become more resistant to manipulation. We're seeing the same thing in trading with algorithms. 

In 1983, Stanislav Petrov saved the world. Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for a Russian nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the U.S., followed by up to five more.  Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm and didn't authorize retaliation (and a potential nuclear WWIII where countless would have died). 

But messaging is now getting more convincing.  It's harder to tell real from fake.  What happens when a world leader has a convincing enough deepfake with a convincing enough threat to another country?  Will people have the wherewithal to double-check? What about when they're buffeted by these messages constantly and from every direction?

As we increasingly use AI for writing and editing, there is a growing risk of subtle changes being made to messages and communications. This widespread opportunity to manipulate information amplifies the capacity and potential for people to use these technologies to influence people's perceptions. As a result, we must be increasingly cautious about how the data we rely on may be altered, which could ultimately affect our perceptions and decisions.

Despite the risks, I'm excited about the promise and the possibilities of technology. But, as always, in search of the good (or better), we have to acknowledge and be prepared for the bad.

Ideally, history would be presented objectively, recounting facts without the influence of societal bias, the perspective of the victor, or the storyteller's slant. But achieving this is harder than it seems.

Think about your daily life – it is filled with many seemingly innocuous judgments about your perception of the economy, what's happening in the markets, who is a hero, who deserves punishment,  and whether an action is "Just" or "Wrong". 

I'm often surprised by how frequently intelligent people violently disagree on issues that seem clear-cut to them.

It's like a fish in water not realizing it's in water ... Most people don't realize the inherent biases and filters that inform their sense of the world or reality.

This post is an attempt to highlight the importance of diverse perspectives and information sources in building well-informed viewpoints.

Even though most people would agree that genuinely understanding history requires a clear picture, free from bias ... I think it's apparent that history (as we know it) is subjective. The narrative shifts to support the needs of the society reporting it. 

The Cold War is a great example where: during the war, immediately after the war, and today, the interpretation of the causes and events has changed.  

But while that's one example, to a certain degree, we can see it everywhere. We can even see it in the way events are reported today. News stations color the story based on whether they're red or blue, and the internet is quick to jump on a bandwagon even if the information is hearsay. 

Now, what happens when you can literally rewrite history?

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.“ - Orwell, 1984

That's one of the potential risks of deepfake technology. As it gets better, creating "supporting evidence" becomes easier for whatever narrative a government or other entity is trying to make real.

On July 20th, 1969, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed safely on the moon. They then returned to Earth safely as well. 

MIT recently created a deepfake of a speech Nixon's speechwriter William Safire wrote during the Apollo 11 mission in case of disaster. The whole video is worth watching, but the speech starts around 4:20. 

MIT via In Event Of Moon Disaster

Can you imagine the real-world ripples that would have occurred if the astronauts died on that journey (or if people genuinely believed they did)? Here is a quote from the press response the Nixon-era government prepared in case of that disaster.

"Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace." - Nixon's Apollo 11 Disaster Speech

Today, alternative histories are becoming some people's realities. Why? Media disinformation is the cause and is more dangerous than ever.

Alternative history can only be called that when it's discernible from the truth, and unfortunately, we're prone to look for information that already fits our biases. 

Today, we also have to increasingly consider the impacts of technology. Deepfakes are becoming more commonplace - with popstar Drake even using AI in a recent record. Now, that was apparent - but scarily, research shows that most can't tell a deepfake from reality (even if they think they can.)

As deepfakes get better, we'll also get better at detecting them, but it's a cat-and-mouse game with no end in sight.

In Signalling theory, it's the idea that signallers evolve to become better at manipulating receivers, while receivers evolve to become more resistant to manipulation. We're seeing the same thing in trading with algorithms. 

In 1983, Stanislav Petrov saved the world. Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for a Russian nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the U.S., followed by up to five more.  Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm and didn't authorize retaliation (and a potential nuclear WWIII where countless would have died). 

But messaging is now getting more convincing.  It's harder to tell real from fake.  What happens when a world leader has a convincing enough deepfake with a convincing enough threat to another country?  Will people have the wherewithal to double-check? What about when they're buffeted by these messages constantly and from every direction?

As we increasingly use AI for writing and editing, there is a growing risk of subtle changes being made to messages and communications. This widespread opportunity to manipulate information amplifies the capacity and potential for people to use these technologies to influence people's perceptions. As a result, we must be increasingly cautious about how the data we rely on may be altered, which could ultimately affect our perceptions and decisions.

Despite the risks, I'm excited about the promise and the possibilities of technology. But, as always, in search of the good (or better), we have to acknowledge and be prepared for the bad.

Is Big Tech Faking AI?

Last week, I shared an article about Amazon's "Just Walk Out" technology – and how it likely required a team of human validators and data labelers.

My takeaway from the article was that we're right at the peak of inflated expectations and about to enter the trough of disillusionment. 

Gartner via Wikipedia 

One of my friends sent me this video, which he found in response.

 

via Sasha Yanshin

It's a pretty damning video from someone who is frustrated with AI - but it makes several interesting points. The presenter discusses Amazon's recent foible, Google's decreasing search quality, the increase of poorly written AI-crafted articles, GPTs web-scraping scandals, and the overall generalization of responses we see as everyone uses AI everywhere. 

Yanshin attributes the disparity between the actual results and the excitement surrounding AI stocks to the substantial investments from technology giants. But as most bubbles prove, money will be the catalyst for amazing things — and some amazing failures and disappointments too.

His final takeaway is that, regardless of its current state, AI is coming and will undoubtedly improve our lives. 

If I were to add some perspective from someone in the industry, it would be this. 

AI Is Overdelivering in Countless Ways

There will always be a gap between expectations and reality (because there will always be a gap between the hype and adoption cycles). AI is already seamlessly integrated into your life. It's the underpinning of your Smartphones, Roombas, Alexas, Maps, etc. It has also massively improved supply chain management, data analytics, and more. 

That's not what gets media coverage ... because it's not sexy ... even if it's real. 

OverHype has existed for much longer than AI has been in the public eye. An easy example is the initial demo of the iPhone, which was almost totally faked,

Having created AI since arguably the mid-90s, the progress and capabilities of AI today are hard to believe. They're almost good enough to seem like science fiction. 

The Tool Isn't Usually The Problem 

Artificial Intelligence is not a substitute for the real thing—and it certainly can't compensate for the lack of the real thing. 

I sound like a broken record, but AI is a tool, not a panacea. Misusing it, like using a shovel as a hammer, leads to disappointment. And it doesn't help if you're trying to hammer nails when you should be laying bricks. 

ChatGPT is very impressive, as are many other generative AI tools. However, they're still products of the data used to train them. They won't make sure they give you factual information; they can only write their responses based on the data they have.

If you give an AI tool a general prompt, you'll likely get a general answer. Crafting precise prompts increases their utility and can create surprising results. 

Even if AI independently achieves 80% of the desired outcome, it still did it without a human, a salary, or hours and days of time to create it. 

Unfortunately, if you're asking the wrong questions, the answers still won't help you. 

That's why it matters not only that you use the right tool but also that you use it to solve the right problem. In addition, many businesses lose sight of the issues they're solving because they get distracted by bright and shiny new opportunities. 

Conclusion

Sifting the wheat from the chaff has become more complicated — and not just in AI. Figuring out what news is real, who to trust, and what companies won't misuse your data seems like it has almost become a full-time job. 

If you take the time, you will see a lot of exciting progress. 

Public perception is likely to trend downward in the next news cycle, which is to be expected. After the peak of inflated expectations comes the trough of disillusionment. 

Regardless, AI will continue to become more capable, ubiquitous, and autonomous. The question is only how long until it affects your business and industry. 

 - via Don't Walk Out on AI Just Yet

What's the most exciting technology you've seen recently?

The Evolution of Michael Jackson

This lighthearted post has something to do with artificial ...  but nothing to do with artificial intelligence.

While doing my weekly reading and web browsing (which is how I pick those links you probably think an algorithm selects), I happened upon a post about Michael Jackson on Twitter (now called X), and I enjoyed it (or at least was drawn to click and watch it). 

I grew up a huge Michael Jackson fan. As a kid, I watched the Jackson 5 Saturday morning cartoon show. His albums were the soundtrack to my college years. Later, my first wife and I saw him in concert several times. We shared that love with our youngest son, Zach. 

It's funny to look back on, but Zach used to dance to Michael Jackson's songs on stage at his Elementary School talent shows or at random restaurants. There was no choreography ... but lots of movement. I still smile when I think about it. 

You might smile (or shake your head) while watching this short video chronicling the evolution of  Michael Jackson's face changes from birth to death. 

 

via MikeBeast

It's a staggering difference. I won't pretend to know what led him to make the changes, but they're substantial. 

That being said, his music is both timely and timeless - which is very rare. He managed to make music in each era that fit in with the times but still felt very Michael Jackson. 

 

via MikeBeast

 

Gone too soon!