I share an article about Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies each year. Here’s last year’s.
It’s one of the few reports that I make sure to track every year. Gartner’s Hype Cycle explains what technologies are reaching maturity and which technologies’ ascents are being enhanced by the cultural zeitgeist (hype, momentum, great timing, etc.).
Strangely, “Technology” has gone beyond the technical – and it has (in part) become “Cultural”... because Technology now impacts and influences almost every aspect of everyday life.
Identifying which technologies are making real waves (and thus will impact the world more) can be a monumental task. Gartner’s report is a great benchmark to compare with your perception of reality.
2021 saw the inclusion of NFTs and advancements in AI. It also focused on the increasing ubiquity of technology.
2022 builds on that – and is best understood by where things are placed on Gartner’s framework called the “Hype Cycle.”
What’s a “Hype Cycle”?
As technology advances, it is human nature to get excited about the possibilities ... and to get disappointed when those expectations aren’t met.
At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product’s timeline we are – and how long it likely will take the technology to hit maturity. It attempts to tell us which technologies will survive the hype and have the potential to become a part of our daily life.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies. It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct and contextually understandable snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit in their hype cycle.
Here are the five regions of Gartner’s Hype Cycle framework:
- Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
- Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
- Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
- Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
- Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts).
Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like “How will these technologies impact my business?” and “Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?”
That said - it’s worth acknowledging that the hype cycle can’t predict which technologies will survive the trough of disillusionment and which ones will fade into obscurity.
What’s exciting this year?
Before we focus on this year, it’s important to remember that, in 2019, Gartner shifted towards introducing new technologies at the expense of technologies that would normally persist through multiple iterations of the cycle. This change is indicative of more innovation and more technologies being introduced than in the genesis of this report. Many of the technologies from the past couple of years (like Augmented Intelligence, 5G, biochips, the decentralized web, etc.) are represented within newer modalities or distinctions.
It’s also worth noting the impact of the pandemic on the prevalent technologies.
For comparison, here’s my article from 2019, and here’s my article from 2015. Click on the chart below to see a larger version of this year’s Hype Cycle.
via Gartner
This year, the key technologies were bucketed into three major themes.
- Evolving/Expanding Immersive Experiences which represents the increasing ubiquity of sensors and technology into the human experience. It includes more control over our digital identities and data, and expands the range of experiences in virtual ecosystems - while also integrating with digital currencies. Technologies you’d recognize in this section include the Metaverse, NFTs, and Web3. Many of these technologies have launched only to fall precipitously. Nonetheless, there is still a long lifecycle for these technologies.
- Accelerated Artificial Intelligence Automation is a reference to the growing maturity and relevance of AI in evolving businesses. AI’s growth is not only accelerating but also becoming more specialized and more accurate, resulting in faster benefits and more enticement for businesses to bite the bullet. It’s freeing up humans to do more of what makes them human ... and happy. One key innovation that Gartner mentions is generative design AI which involves AI-augmented user flows, content, and more. Tangentially related to pop-AI tools like DALL-E. It also includes causal artificial intelligence, where systems go beyond correlation-based predictive models and start understanding cause and effect. That results in actions that are more effective and autonomous.
- Optimized Technology Delivery represents technologies focused on building a digital business. They provide insight to optimize your and help deliver your products and services. While there are numerous interesting technologies in this space, the ones that caught my eye were cybersecurity mesh architecture, platform engineering, and data observability. When I talk about Turning Thoughts Into Things, this is what I’m talking about. In many respects, the future of a business increasingly depends on its ability to leverage data - both internally and externally - to take a capability and make it into a platform (and to do it securely, consistently, and repeatably).
If we compare this year’s list to last year, I think we’ve seen a massive increase in the adoption of emerging technologies. All three of Gartner’s major themes focus on the ubiquity of technology and AI in all facets of life. While some of the key technologies in immersive experiences (like digital currencies, NFTs, and the metaverse) are experiencing inflated expectations and disillusionment, the space, as a whole, is moving forward rapidly.
Of course, I’m always most interested in the intersection of AI and other spaces. Last year, AI felt like the underpinning of broader trends. This year, it’s become a lighthouse for businesses to work toward. In my opinion, this points towards the increasing maturity and adoption of AI. The opportunity cost of adopting AI into your business is continuing to decrease. Meanwhile, these systems are also becoming more autonomic, self-managing, and self-learning. I’m excited to see Gartner emphasizing what this does for humans - not what it takes away from them. Remember, the heart of artificial intelligence is human - and it continues to free us up to be more human.
As we reach new echelons of AI, you’ll likely see increasing examples of over-hype and short-term failures. You often miss a rung on the ladder as you reach for new heights, but it doesn’t mean you should stop climbing. More importantly, it doesn’t mean failure or even a lack of progress. Challenges and practical realities act as force functions that forge better, more robust, resilient, and adaptable solutions that do what you want (or something better). It just takes longer than you initially wanted or hoped.
To paraphrase a quote I have up on the wall in my office from Rudiger Dornbusch ... Things often take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
Many of these technologies have been hyped for years - but the hype cycle is different than the adoption cycle. We often overestimate what we can do in a year and underestimate what we can do in ten years.
I say it often ... we live in interesting times!
Which technologies do you think will survive the hype?
Let me know what you think.
Onwards!
How To Handle Scary Times
The last few weeks have been pretty volatile in the markets. OPEC reduced oil production by 2 million barrels a day, the Dow saw its worst day since 2020, the British PM, Liz Truss, resigned after only six weeks, and currencies around the world (including the Pound) are dropping precipitously in value.
With markets making new lows and volatility shaking out investors in both directions, I thought this would be an excellent time to talk about coping with losses and managing your anxieties during "scary times." I last shared this at the apex of COVID fear ... and it's just as relevant today.
The Anxiety Antidote
Many people are suffering from "I should have ...", or "if I would have ...", or "if I could have ..." thoughts.
The problem is that thoughts like those create more stress and distraction. They are a lens focused on loss, difficulties, past events, things that are missing, and what you don't want.
Think of them as an unhealthy reflex that wastes energy, confidence, and time.
All We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself
I often talk about market psychology and human nature. The reason is that markets reflect the collective fear and greed of its participants... people tend to get paralyzed during scary times like these.
But it's not the economy that makes people feel paralyzed. People feel paralyzed because of their reactions and their beliefs about the economy. Your perceptions become your reality.
A little examination reveals that most fear is based on a "general" trigger rather than a "specific" trigger. In other words, people are afraid of all the things that could happen and are paralyzed by the sheer scope of possibilities. These things don't even have to be probabilities in order to scare them.
You gain a competitive advantage as soon as you recognize that it's not logical. Why? Because as soon as you distinguish that fear as not necessarily "true", you can refocus your insights and energy on moving forward. You can act instead of react. You make better decisions when you come from a place of calm instead of fear... so create that calm.
Even a challenging environment, like this, presents you with opportunities if you watch for them ... or even better, if you create them.
The Scary Times Success Manual
The goal is to move forward and feel better. Strategic Coach offers ten strategies for transforming negativity and unpredictability into opportunities for growth, progress, and achievement. They call it the "Scary Times Success Manual," and what follows are some excerpts:
Forget about your difficulties; focus on your progress.
Because of some changes, things may not be as easy as they once were. New difficulties can either defeat you or reveal new strengths. Your body's muscles always get stronger from working against resistance. The same is true for the "muscles" in your mind, your spirit, and your character. Treat this whole period of challenge as a time when you can make your greatest progress as a human being.
Forget about events; focus on your responses.
When things are going well, many people think they are in control of events. That's why they feel so defeated and depressed when things turn bad. They think they've lost some fundamental ability. The most consistently successful people in the world know they can't control events - but continually work toward greater control over their creative responses to events. Any period when things are uncertain is an excellent time to focus all of your attention and energy on being creatively responsive to all of the unpredictable events that lie ahead.
Forget about what's missing; focus on what's available.
When things change for the worse, many desirable resources are inevitably missing - including information, knowledge, tools, systems, personnel, and capabilities. These deficiencies can paralyze many people, who believe they can't make decisions and take action. A strategic response is to take advantage of every resource that is immediately available in order to achieve as many small results and make as much daily progress as possible. Work with every resource and opportunity at hand, and your confidence will continually grow.
Forget about your complaints, focus on your gratitude.
When times get tough, everyone has to make a fundamental decision: to complain or to be grateful. In an environment where negative sentiment is rampant, the consequences of this decision are much greater. Complaining only attracts negative thoughts and people. Gratitude, on the other hand, creates the opportunity for the best thinking, actions, and results to emerge. Focus on everything that you are grateful for, communicate this, and open yourself each day to the best possible consequences.
Final Thoughts
The VIX (Cboe's Volatility Index) is regarded as the "Fear Index". While we saw spikes in early October, numbers are significantly lower than the spikes in 2020.
But, numbers have remained higher than pre-pandemic. To me, this shows how uncertain and anxious the average "trader" is with various global trends. We can discuss all the long or short-term causes of the rises and falls of markets, but I don't think it does much good. I let the algorithms worry about those.
I sound like a broken record, but volatility is the new normal.
Pair that with all the fear and uncertainty, and you've got a recipe for increased volatility and noise. That means that the dynamic range of a move will be wider and happen in shorter periods of time than ever before. You'll hear me echo this thought over the next few years as the ranges continue to expand and compress. Cycles that used to play out over weeks now take days or hours. The game is still the same, it just takes a slightly different set of skills to recognize where the risks and opportunities are.
There's a difference between investing and trading. On some level, I believe some humans can still invest well (assuming that they do the research, find an edge, and minimize the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that negatively impact results. However, for most people, believing that they can trade (personally) is dangerous. There are simply too many things to pay attention to – and the ratio of signal to noise is difficult to overcome as well.
The crucial distinction is between adding data and adding information. Adding more data does not equal adding more information. In fact, blindly adding data increases your chances of misinformation and spurious correlations.
Today's paradigm - both in life and in trading - is about noise reduction. It's about figuring out what moves the needle and focusing only on that.
Said a different way, if you don't know what your edge is, you don't have one.
Meanwhile, if you do know what your edge is (regardless of how scary the times are), keep calm and carry on.
Posted at 09:16 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
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