Capitalogix

The Shape of Change

Change is the only constant.

The World Government Summit put together a helpful interactive website where you can test your knowledge on the trajectory of key statistical indicators for the development of society over the past decade.  It is more challenging than I imagined.  Here is the text from their opening screen.

Can we estimate how much the world has changed in a decade? Or do our own experiences impact the perception of progress? This work challenges the assumptions we make about how key statistical indicators regarding Health, the Environment, or Education evolve through the years. 

- The Shape of Change via the World Government Summit

You can click on the image below to test your knowledge of key issues shaping the world (like oil dependency, pollution,  literacy, economic freedom, etc.) by answering some questions at "The Shape of Change."

The Shape of Change via the World Government

It also includes a table that tracks year-over-year changes in various indicators. 

 

The Shape of Change via the World Government

The first part is like a guessing game where you try to predict the direction and the rate of change.

The second part, which involves reviewing the data table, was much more illustrative. 

Were there any numbers that surprised you?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 21st, 2023

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Amazon Wants Customers to Change Shipping Habit and Will Pay Them To Do It. (TheStreet)
• Bill Gates Says His Life Has Been Filled With Deep Regret.(Futurism)
• The Thing Missing From Generative AI is the 'Why'.(VentureBeat)
• This Chart Proves Every Single Famous Genius Has One Thing In Common. (Fatherly)
• Researchers Found a Surefire Predictor of Success — And What Separates those Who Find It From those Who Keep Failing.(Insider)

 

Trading Links:

• A New Class of Executives on Wall Street is Gaining a Ton of Power. (Insider)
• The Elon Musk Doctrine: How the Billionaire Navigates the World Stage. (Wall Street Journal)
• 'In a Lot of the World, the Clock Has Hit Midnight': China is Calling in Loans to Dozens of Countries from Pakistan to Kenya. (Fortune)
• Quantitative Tightening: What Happens When $2 Trillion is Sucked Out of the Global Economy. (CNN)
• SEC's Gensler Says AI Will Cause 'The Crisis of 2027' and Crypto is 'Non-Compliant' by Design.(Kitco)

 

Speed Matters: The Pace of Success

Capitalogix started in my home.  The first employee sat at a tiny desk behind me.  Their job was to exit the trades I entered.  This was an early attempt to avoid the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that humans bring to the business of trading.

We started to grow ... and somehow got to 23 people working in my home.  It literally overtook my office, dining room, and the entire upstairs.  Neighbors noticed (and expressed their displeasure).

Looking back, it seems crazy (and my wife seems Saintly).  But somehow, at the time, it felt natural. 

Incubating the company in my home, and growing it the way we did, resulted in a closeness (a feeling much like family) that pays dividends, even today.

Speed matters ... both fast and slow.  

I shot a video on the subject.  Check it out. 

 

There is a concept in business expressed by the phrase "measure twice and cut once."  It's much easier to do something the right way from the beginning rather than trying to fix it after you mess it up. 

It saves time and creates a better end result. 

Beginning with the end in mind is powerful.  I often spend what looks like "too much" time imagining the bigger future.  What will things look like when we are ten times bigger?  Who will we serve?  What dangers will keep me up at night?  What opportunities will we be trying to attract or capture?  What strengths will give us confidence?  Who will we be collaborating with ... and about what?  It helps build a roadmap that makes it easier to understand whether particular activities are aligned with our future (or just something we are doing now). 

I prefer to optimize on the longer term rather than the shorter term.  That isn't always possible or practical, but that is my preference when it is.

Pace is important - and a focus on "what's the best next step" is an important driver at Capitalogix, but sometimes in order to go fast, you have to go slow.  You may miss out on something, but the ultimate payoff is often worth it. 

It's a good lesson for personal growth as well.  There is no right timeline.  No one size fits all.  Take your time.  Find your path.

 

Anna Vital via Adioma

Hope that helps. 

A Look Back At Simon Sinek's 'Start With Why'

In 2009, Simon Sinek talked to my EO Chapter, and then came to my office to speak with our team.  This was right at the beginning of his meteoric rise, two short months after the release of his famous book "Start With Why." 

Here's the article I wrote in 2009:

___________________

Inspiration is stronger than persuasion.  It gives people a sense of purpose and belonging that has little to do with external incentives or benefits.

Simon Sinek, who is quite charismatic and well-spoken, is delivering this message to a rapidly growing fan base. 

My team thought Simon was inspiring, engaging, and insightful.

You can watch a short video that introduces his material below. 

In addition, you can explore more of his ideas in his book,
Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.

An Example of Finding the Right Person for a Job.

Who do you believe will do a better job, someone who takes a job because of the salary and benefits ... or someone truly inspired to accomplish the job's purpose? 

Phrased that way, of course, you know the answer.  Still, how can you leverage this to better select customers and employees?

For example, Simon uses the story of Sir Ernest Shackleton to illustrate this concept.  Shackleton was preparing to lead the first expedition across Antarctica in 1914.  Legend has it that when seeking crew members for his journey, Shackleton placed the following ad in a newspaper:

"MEN WANTED FOR HAZARDOUS JOURNEY. SMALL WAGES, BITTER COLD, LONG MONTHS OF COMPLETE DARKNESS, CONSTANT DANGER, SAFE RETURN DOUBTFUL. HONOUR AND RECOGNITION IN CASE OF SUCCESS.
- SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON"

When the expedition became stuck in the ice and could not be rescued for 22 months, not a single man was lost.  The reason Simon gave for their unlikely survival was that Shackleton hired survivors that could deal with the situation and were aligned with the mission and purpose.

Can you imagine writing an ad like that to attract the right people to your cause?

Watch This Video.

Here is a video of Simon speaking at a TED Conference.  It is an excellent intro to his stuff. 

Other Resources:

• Here is a link to Simon's Blog.  (2023 Note: this now links to his old blog, which is poorly formatted but interesting to see.  His new website/blog can be found here.)
• Here is a link to Videos of Simon.
• Here is a link to an article on why to know someone else's Why.  (PDF Version)
• Here is a link to Simon's Book: Start with Why.

_____________________

It's now more than ten years later, and Simon is one of the most prominent leaders in leadership development and has published five books, to much acclaim. 

Part of his success is the charisma and pith with which Simon speaks and writes - but a large part is his focus on what makes humans human.  He's not preaching a leadership mantra focused on the bottom line and revenue; he's focused on the aspects of human nature that don't change.  He's focused on purpose and the elements of leadership that apply to everyone - not just CEOs. 

As we move into an era of increased volatility – both in markets and business - these leadership principles will become more important. 

Understanding your "WHY" is vital if you want to make a difference (and not be replaced by an AI). 

If you haven't read any of his books, they're all good, but I suggest "Start With Why" and "The Infinite Game."

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 14th, 2023

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Your Clothes in the Future Could Be a Living, Self-Repairing Material.(ScienceAlert)
• Get a Horse! America's Skepticism Toward the First Automobiles.(SaturdayEveningPost)
• Wendy's Will Start Using AI Chatbots for Drive-Throughs.(BoingBoing)
• Will Programmers Really Be Replaced by AI?(HackerNoon)
• Amazon's Working on a Secret New Home Robot that Could Be More Like Rosie. (TheVerge)

 

Trading Links:

• Here's How LeBron James Became the NBA's First Billionaire. (Investopedia)
• Pickleball is Replacing Bed Bath & Beyond and Old Navy at Malls. (CNN)
• Lyft CEO Says Company is Doing 'Everything We Can' to Be Ready for Self-Driving Cars that Will Be Here 'Faster Than You Think'. (Insider)
• De-Americanize': How China is Remaking Its Chip Business. (NYT)
• Leaked Google Memo Shows Fear of Losing the AI Race, But Not to the Foe You'd Think. (Futurism)

 

 

A Lesson From My Grandmother ... On AI

I was at an event last week where (unsurprisingly) we focused heavily on AI.  Conversations ranged from use cases for generative AI (and the ethics of AI image creators) to the long-term effects of AI and its adoption.

Before I could chime in, the conversation had gone to the various comparisons from past generations.  When electricity was harnessed, articles claimed that it would never catch on, it would hurt productivity, and what of the artisans it would potentially put out of business if it were to gain traction. 

When the radio or TV was released, the older generation was sure it would lead to the death of productivity, have horrible ramifications, and ultimately lead to the next generation's failure. 

People resist change.  We're wired to avoid harm more than to seek pleasure.  The reason is that, evolutionarily, you have to survive to have fun. 

On the other hand, my grandmother used to say: "It's easy to get used to nice things." 

Here's a transcript of some of my response to the discussion: 

 

With AI, getting from "Zero-to-One" was a surprisingly long and difficult process.  Meaning, getting AI tools and capabilities to the point where normal people felt called to use it because they believed it would be useful or necessary was a long and winding road.  But now that everybody thinks it's useful, AI use will no longer be "special".  Instead, it will become part of the playing field.  And because of that, deciding to use AI is no longer a strategy.  It's now table stakes.

But that creates a potential problem and distraction.  Why?  Because, for most of us, our unique ability is not based on our ability to use ChatGPT or some other AI tool of the day.  As more people focus on what a particular tool can do, they risk losing sight of what really matters for their real business.

Right now, ChatGPT is hot!  But, if you go back to the beginning of the Internet, MySpace or Netscape (or some other tools that were first and big) aren't necessarily the things that caught on and became standards.

I'm not saying that OpenAI and ChatGPT aren't important.  But what I believe is more important is that we passed a turning point where, all of a sudden, tons of people started to use something new.  That means there will be an increase of focus, resources, and activity concentrated on getting to next in that space.

You don't have to predict the technology; it is often easier and better to predict human nature instead.  We're going to find opportunities and challenges we wouldn't because of the concentration of energy, focus, and effort.  Consequently, AI, business, and life will evolve.

For most of us, what that means is that over the next five years, our success will not be tied to how well we use a tool that exists today, but rather on how we develop our capabilities to leverage tools like that to grow our business. 

But your success will not be determined by how well you learn to use ChatGPT.  It will be determined by how well you envision your future and recognize opportunities to use tools to start making progress toward the things you really want and to become more and more of who you really are.  Right?

So, think about your long-term bigger future?  Pick a time 5, 10,  or even 20 years from now.  What does your desired bigger future look like?  Can you create a vivid vision where you describe in detail what you'd like to happen in your personal, professional, and business life?  Once you've done that, then try to imagine what a likely midpoint might look like?  And then, using that as a directional compass, try to imagine what you can do in this coming year that aligns your actions with the path you've chosen?

 

Ultimately, as soon as you start finding ways to use emerging technologies in a way that excites you, the fear and gloom fade.

The best way to break through a wall isn't with a wide net, but rather with a sharp blow.  You should be decisive and focused. 

I remember being an entrepreneur in the late 90s (during the DotCom Bubble).  And I remember watching people start to emulate Steve Jobs ... wearing black turtlenecks and talking about which internet company would be the "next big thing" at social gatherings.  Looking back, an early sign that a crash was coming was that seemingly everybody had an opinion on what was going to be hot, and too many of them were overly confident. 

The point is that almost nobody talks about the Internet that way anymore ... in part because the Internet is now part of the fabric of society.  At this point, it would be weird if somebody didn't use the Internet.  And you don't really even have to think about how to use the Internet anymore because there's a WHO to do almost all those HOWs. 

The same is going to be true for AI.  Like with any technology, it will suffer from all the same hype-cycle blues ... inflated expectations and then disillusionment.  But, when we come out the other side, AI will be better for it ... just like the Internet, the silver screen, or even radio stations. 

Earlier, I mentioned how long it took to get from "Zero-to-One" with AI.  But we're still at like three" or a "five" on a 100-point scale.  Meaning, you are at the beginning of one of the biggest and most asymptotic curves that you can imagine.  And you're not late … you're early!  Even the fact that you're thinking about stuff like this now means that you are massively ahead.

The trick isn't to figure out how to use AI or some AI tool.  The trick is to keep the main thing the main thing.

Investing resources into your company is one thing.  Realize that there are 1000s of these tools out there, and many more coming.  You don't have to build something yourself.  It is often faster and better to acquire a tool than it is to spend money on developing and building it.

Think of the Medici family.  They invested in people, which in turn triggered the Renaissance.  A key to moving forward in the Age of AI will be to invest in the right people who seek to create the kind of world you want to see.  Think of this as a strategic investment into creators and entrepreneurs with a vision who are on a path that aligns with yours.

As you get better and better at doing that, you'll see increasing opportunities to use tools to engage people to collaborate with and create joint ventures.  Ultimately, you will collaborate with technology where it's your thought partner and then your business partner.  We are entering exciting times where AI, automation, and innovation will make extraordinary things possible for people looking for opportunities to do extraordinary things.

How Smart Is ChatGPT?

It gets a little old talking about ChatGPT so often ... but it's rightfully taking the world by storm, and the innovations, improvements, and use cases keep coming. 

This week, I'm keeping it simple. 

VisualCapitalist put together a chart that helps contextualize how well ChatGPT tests on several popular placement tests. 

via visualcapitalist

It also shows the comparison between versions 3.5 and 4.

ChatGPT 4 improvements include plugins, access to the internet, and the ability to analyze visual inputs. 

Interestingly, there were a couple of places where version 4 didn't improve ... Regardless, it is already outperforming the average human in these scenarios.

Obviously, the ability to perform well on a test isn't a direct analog to intelligence - especially general intelligence. However, it's a sign that these tools can become important partners and assets in your business. Expect that it will take developing custom systems to truly transform your business, but there are a lot of easy wins you can stack by exploring what's out there already. 

The takeaway is that you're missing out if you aren't experimenting. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 7th, 2023

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• NASA's Newest Office is All About Putting Humans on Mars. (Popular Science)
• Seeing Stars: How Michelin Rates Restaurants. (CBS News)
• A Curious Person's Guide to Artificial Intelligence. (Washington Post)
• How to Win at Cards and Life, According to Poker's Autistic Superstar. (Washington Post)
• With 10 Short Words, Warren Buffett Just Explained the Simple Success Strategy that Most People Never Notice. (Inc)

 

Trading Links:

• Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Dumps Billions Worth of U.S. Stocks, Buys Treasuries Instead. (SeekingAlpha)
• Why Stock Markets Are Usually in a Draw-Down: Stock Market Tops, Bottoms & Middles. (AWealthOfCommonSense)
• OpenAI is Losing a Flabbergasting Amount of Money on ChatGPT. (Futurism)
• Henry Kissinger on a Potential Artificial Intelligence Arms Race. (CBS News)
• Ashton Kutcher Raised a $243 Million Investment Fund in Just Five Weeks that Will Focus on 'The Next Absolute Transformation' in Tech. (Fortune)

The Power of Intellectual Property

Industry is changing fast.  In the 1900s, the world's titans mainly produced tangible goods (or the infrastructure for them).  The turn of the century brought an increasing return on intangible assets like data, software, and even brand value ... hence the rise of the influencer. 

As technology increasingly changes business, jobs, and the world, intellectual property becomes an increasingly important way to set yourself apart and make your business more valuable. 

While America is leading the charge in A.I., we're falling behind in creating and protecting intellectual property. 

Patents can help protect your business, but they also do much more.  I.P. creates inroads for partnerships with other businesses, and they can also be a moat that makes it more difficult for others to enter your space.  On a small scale, this is a standard business strategy.  What happens when the scale increases?

The number of patents we're seeing created is a testament to the pace of innovation in the world, but it should also be a warning to protect your innovations.  Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge - so be careful with your trade secrets. 

If you want to hear more of my thoughts on this, I recorded a podcast with Goldstein Patent Law on this subject.

The S&P's Performance In 2023 So Far

We've just completed the first four months of trading in 2023.  While the stresses of the past three years have decreased, people are still wary. 

As a reminder, the S&P 500 Index ended 2022 down 18% ... which was its worst performance since the financial crisis in 2008. 

Visual Capitalist put together an animated visualization that covers the performance since January. 

 

Click to see Animated Version via Visual Capitalist.

While global markets are still volatile and struggling, we are starting to see a rebound in the S&P 500.  As of the date of the Visual Capitalist chart, the S&P 500 Index had increased 7.5% in Q1.  While that rise was mainly driven by a few stocks, over half of the stocks in the index are above their December closing prices. 

Unsurprisingly, Nvidia is topping the list in terms of performance in Q1, but it's closely followed by Meta and Tesla. 

Tech has been a strong driver.  As a reminder, you don't have to be a creator or user of AI to profit from it.  You can also make money selling picks and shovels during the metaphorical gold rush.  Nvidia is proof of that – and has capitalized heavily from the current AI boom. 

On the other hand, it's not all good news, with three financial companies being the biggest losers on the S&P 500.  Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Financial Group, and First Republic Bank each lost the vast majority of their value, with Signature Bank losing a whopping 99.7%.  Of course, balance that with the strong performance of other financial behemoths.  We're also seeing a continued drop in healthcare and consumer staples, perhaps in response to the world returning to "normal" after COVID-phobia. 

It's an interesting market we're currently residing in.  Investor interest is high.  Yet, inflation and consumer prices reduce liquidity.  There's a discrepancy between companies and consumers. 

What do you think?