Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 19th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Pope Francis and the Vatican Just Created an “AI Bible” Reshaping Faith in the Digital Age. (TheBrighterSide)
• People Think They Already Know Everything They Need to Make Decisions. (ArsTechnica)
• 8 Expert Tips for Getting Started With NotebookLM. (Google)
• Chinese Humanoid Robot is the 'Fastest in the World' Thanks to One Surprising Addition. (UniladTech)
• Copy of US Constitution Found in Filing Cabinet Sells for $9M. So, Somebody Does Still Value the Constitution. (BBC)

 

Trading Links:

• OpenAI's Advantage Over Rival AI Companies Vanishes, Report Finds. (Fortune)
• Nvidia’s Shocking Truth vs. The Dot-Com Bubble. (JoshBelanger)
• The Next Wave of AI Won’t Be Driven by LLMs. Here’s What Investors Should Focus on Instead. (Fortune)
• Amazon Announces Nuclear Power Deals as Tech Giants Scramble for More Clean Energy. (GeekWire)
• ForecastTrader – Futures-Based Prediction Market for the Presidential Election and Other Things. (ForecastTrader)

 

The Law Of Diminishing Returns

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ... it is called the law of diminishing returns.

 

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much, you get injured; when you drink too much water, you get poisoned; etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... Too much of a good thing is a bad thing! 

And of course ... Be moderate in everything, including moderation.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 6th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How to Use ChatGPT to Brainstorm Anything. (Geeky-Gadgets)
• Why We Love Moo Deng — The Science Behind Our Obsession With Baby Animals. (Forbes)
• Try Perplexity for Search🔥. (WonderTools)
• These US Cities Hit 110 Degrees in October – Get Used to It. (Vox)
• Israel's Paradox of Defeat – How the Country's Military Success Is Producing Political Failure. (ForeignAffairs)

 

Trading Links:

• Why OpenAI Burns Through Billions. (Axios)
• AI Training Data Dilemma: Legal Experts Argue for 'Fair Use'. (Forbes)
• Amazon's New AI Chatbot Could Change How Employees Work Forever. (GreyJournal)
• America's One-Two Punch of Good Economic News. (Axios)
• Mark Cuban Warns the U.S. Must Win the AI Race ‘Or We Lose Everything’. (Fortune)

 

Are You As Smart As You Think You Are?

VisualCapitalist just shared an infographic showing the Average IQ by state. It caught my eye and my interest.  Here it is.

 

via VisualCapitalist.

When I first examined the chart, I focused on the state-by-state differences. Honestly, I was taken aback that some states scored higher than others. And by that, I mean it wasn't necessarily the states I would've predicted. But then I took a closer look at the scale and realized these differences are probably insignificant. The results essentially show that, on average, states' intelligence levels are... well, average.

I know a lot of smart people.

I also know many people who think they're smarter than they are (even the smart ones ... or, perhaps, especially the smart ones). 

It's common. It's so common that there's a name for it—the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Have you ever met someone who's so confident about what they think that they believe they know more than an expert in a field? That's the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's defined as a cognitive bias where a lack of self-awareness prevents someone from accurately assessing their skills. 

Here's a graph that shows the general path a person takes on their journey towards mastery of a subject. 

via NC Soy

The funny thing about the above image... it's not actually a part of the paper on the Dunning-Kruger Effect. But it's now so commonplace that people report that chart as fact—a fitting example of the effect. 

David Fitzsimmons via Cagle Cartoons

Recognizing the "victims" of this effect in our daily lives can often be funny or frustrating. But we're all prone to this; it's a sign of ignorance, not stupidity. 

This is a problem with all groups and all people. You're not immune to it, even if you already know about the cognitive bias resulting from the Dunning-Kruger Effect. 

It should be a reminder to reflect inward - not cast aspersions outward. 

Two different ways that people get it wrong, first is to think about other people and it’s not about me. The second is thinking that incompetent people are the most confident people in the room, that’s not necessarily true.

Usually, that shows up in our data, but they are usually less confident than the really competent people but not that much... - David Dunning

To close out, even this article on the Dunning-Kruger presents a simplification of its findings. The U-shape in the graph isn't seen in the paper, the connection that lack of ability precludes meta-cognitive ability on a task is intuitive, but not the only potential takeaway from the paper. 

Regardless, I think it's clear we are all victims of an amalgam of different cognitive biases. 

We judge ourselves situationally and assume "the best". Meanwhile, we often assume "the worst" of others. 

We can do better ... it starts with awareness.

Progress starts by telling the truth.

Remembering The 'Crazy Ones'

On September 28th, 1997 (almost exactly 17 years ago today), Apple released perhaps one of the most recognizable commercials of all time. I remember being mesmerized the first time I saw Apple Computer's iconic "Crazy Ones" video as part of their Think Different campaign.

Steve Jobs originally recorded a version of "The Crazy Ones" himself, but chose to release the Richard Dreyfuss narrated version. 

 

via Youtube

Here is the text version of the script.

Here's to the crazy ones.
The misfits.
The rebels.
The troublemakers.
The round pegs in the square holes.

The ones who see things differently.

They're not fond of rules.
And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them, disagree with them,
glorify or vilify them.
About the only thing you can't do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They push the human race forward.

While some may see them as the crazy ones,
we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think
they can change the world, are the ones who do.

    –     © 1997 Apple Computer, Inc.

Click here for extra material about the video and campaign. 

I think it has held up pretty well, and I had this piece of art commissioned for my office. 

There's a lot to be said for carving your own path, pushing past perceived limits, and accomplishing something hard to ignore. 

Imaginary Centenarians: An Ig Nobel Pursuit

The 34th Annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony took place last Thursday at MIT. Every year since 1991, around the time the recipients of the genuine Novel Prizes are announced,  the Ig Nobel Prize awards the ten achievements that "first make people laugh, and then make them think. They're meant to celebrate the imaginative and encourage more interest in the sciences. 

The first award for Biology was awarded to Robert Klark Graham, for pioneering development of the Repository for Germinal Choice, a sperm bank that accepted donations only from Nobellians and Olympians. While I jokingly tell my kids they have "superior genetic potential," this type of research and belief can have serious consequences. 

In 1996, Physicist Robert Matthews earned a prize for his paper "Tumbling Toast, Murphy's Law and the Fundamental Constants," which sought to explain why toast tends to fall buttered-side down.

  

 

In 2002, another physicist, Arnd Leike, earned the honor after using the law of exponential decay to explain the behavior of beer foam. 

And in 2017, Marc-Antoine Fardin earned the honor for using fluid dynamics to finally answer the eternal question: "Can a cat be both a solid and a liquid?" In case you are squeamish, no blender was involved in that experiment.

While these are funny examples, they're rooted in real science. As is the focus of this article, this year's Ig Nobel Prize for Demography. 

In my circles, it is becoming more common to discuss how to live past 100 — and not just how to live beyond that number ... but to do so with a high quality of life.

A popular concept around that subject is Blue Zones - areas where people seem to live longer and healthier. There's even a Netflix documentary on the subject. Notable places include Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; and Ikaria, Greece. 

Saul Justin Newman challenged that belief with his research, which found that extreme age records tend to come from areas with no birth certificates, rampant clerical errors, pension fraud ... and even short life spans. 

While longevity in the zones has primarily been attributed to diet, community, and genetics, Newman found that many of these claims were based on errors - or outright fraud. Instead, these regions are actually characterized by the opposite of what you would expect ... low incomes, low literacy, high crime, and short lifespans. 

To a certain extent, it makes sense. In areas where you're struggling to make ends meet ... why wouldn't you commit pension fraud? In fact, in 2010, the Japanese government realized that over 80% of the people aged over 100 were actually dead. Part of what made this possible was that America bombed the halls of records in that area during the war. 

Here's an interview with Saul Justin Newman on the subject. He's tracked over 80% of the people aged over 110 worldwide. Almost none of them have a birth certificate. Only about 10% have a death certificate. 

What does this mean for human longevity?

While the stories of these 110-year-olds may mostly be fake - as mentioned in my recent article - longevity is on the rise, and there are many modalities to increase your lifespan. 

 

 

The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

There are people living to 100, and there are plenty of people living healthily into their 70s, 80s, and 90s. 

We're taking steps in the right direction. Technology and medicine are both evolving quickly. 

But, like with longevity data, improvements in any space need to be met with a grain of salt. 

If it sounds too good to be true ... it generally is. Not always. But, generally. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 22nd, 2024

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Ex-Pentagon Official Discusses Government's Hunt for UFOs: 'I Have to Be Careful What I Say'. (People)
• The Russian Bot Army that Conquered Online Poker. (LongReads)
• The Mr. Beast Memo is a Guide to the Gen Z Workforce. (Kyla)
• The 7 ‘House Rules’ of Marriage—By a Psychologist. (Forbes)
• Scientists May Soon Be Able to Translate the Languages Plants Use to Communicate. (BGR)

 

Trading Links:

• How Intel Fell From Global Chip Champion to Takeover Target. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Top 100 Gen AI Consumer Apps. (A16Z)
• Breaking Down OnlyFans’ Stunning Economics. (MatthewBall)
• How the Super-Rich Signal Their Wealth to Each Other. (WSJ)
• Peter Thiel Predicts the 2024 Election Won't Be Close: 'One Side is Simply Going to Collapse'. (Insider)

 

The Average NFL Player ...

When I woke up this morning, I saw that Dak Prescott, the star quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, signed a new contract, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history. His new four-year, $240 million deal makes him the league’s first $60 million per year player. 

If you are curious, here is a list of the highest-paid NFL players in 2024.

Each of the 32 teams has an active roster of 53 players. That is 1,696 active roster players. Add the practice squad and account for injuries, and in a typical season, you end up with about 2,100 players per season.

Now that the NFL Football season is officially underway, I thought it would be interesting to look at each position’s composite player.

As you might expect, different sports have a different ratio of ethnicities, builds, and features. The same is true for different positions on a football team.  For example, you might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Asians in Badminton. You expect NBA players to be taller, swimmers to have longer arms, and football players to have more muscle. 

Here is a visualization that shows what happens when you average the top players’ faces in various positions.

  

osmutiar via Reddit

Composites are interesting.

While you may be thinking, “This player must be unstoppable,”... statistically, he’s average.

The “composite” NFL player would be the 848th-best player in the league. He’s not a starter, and he plays on an average team. 

We found the same thing with our trading bots. The ones that made it through most filters weren’t star performers. They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories). The survivors were generalists, not specialists.

In reality, you need both.

In an ideal world with no roster limits, you’d want the perfect lineup for each granular situation. You’d want to evaluate players on how they perform under pressure, on different downs, against other players, and with various schemes. 

On a related but slightly different note, I recently read a post called “Why Generalists Own the Future.” It says that, in the age of AI, it’s better to know a little about a lot than a lot about a little. But part of that rationale is that it is easy to find or create digital specialists to do the things people used to do.

That’s what technology lets you do with algorithms. You can have a library of systems that communicate with each other ... and you don’t even have to pay their salary (but you will need data scientists, researchers, machines, data, alternative data, electricity, disaster recovery, and a testing platform).

You won’t find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety. Generalists are great, but you also have to be able to respond to specific conditions.

How ‘Bout Them Cowboys!

Some Perspective: "I'm Way Closer To Lebron Than You Are To Me!"

With the NFL starting its regular season this week, I was thinking about the talent and effort it takes to compete as a professional athlete.

Take a second to reflect on the journey required to become a pro. In general, the top players from a youth league became standouts in high school and then were star players in college before eventually making it to a professional team. But here's the kicker ... in any other context, they're elite, but unless they're superstars in the NFL, they're considered average or worse. Think about it. By definition, half of the players are below average. 

Meanwhile, I recently came across an example from the NBA that illustrates this concept in a funny but profound way.

There's a relatively famous quote from NBA journeyman, Brian Scalabrine, who said: 

"I'm way closer to Lebron (James) than you are to me!" - Brian Scalabrine

For context, as a USC Trojans men's basketball player, Scalabrine was the top scorer and a leader in field goals and rebounds. He then played 11 years in the NBA ... but at no point in that time was he a star. He didn't put up great (or even good) stats, he wasn't a household name (though he did pick up the nickname "White Mamba"), and he is nowhere near the caliber of player that Lebron James is. In fact, throughout his career, he averaged just 3.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, and .8 assists a game. But, remember, he was good enough to play at a pro level for 11 years.

As a result, many unprofessional (weekend warrior) athletes thought he was an easy target. One day, Brian was playing a rec league game where he dropped 60 points. He tweeted about it, and a bunch of people started tweeting back to the now 40+ years old former NBA player that they could beat him. There are funny YouTube videos about this.

Brian responded by replying:

"Listen. I may suck for an NBA player. Those guys are pretty good. But I don't suck compared to you. You suck compared to me." - Brian Scalabrine

He then accepted their challenge by asking them to send in videos of their play and committed that he would go 1-on-1 against the best of them.

Scalabrine then went on to play 4 of the best players who responded, with one of them having NCAA D1 experience.

The end result?

He outscored them 44-6 - with two of the players scoring 0 points. 

 

via YouTube

It should be self-explanatory, but it seems to be a concept many people struggle with. Any given pro player has been the best of the best throughout their journey. They're the 1% of the 1%. 

But that is probably true for you too. If you're reading this article, you're likely killing it compared to the average Joe. 

Many of us are in rooms with phenomenal business owners and operators. When you meet people like Peter Diamandis, Ray Dalio, or Richard Branson, it's easy to focus on the distance between you and them.

Recognize that it is still a huge accomplishment to be a Brian Scalabrine rather than a Joe Schmo. 

They don't recognize what you and me do recognize. When you're in the NBA, there's all kinds of tells, right? Like if a guy puts his hand like that, you know what he's gonna do. If a guy does a hesitation, you know what he's gonna do. All that stuff is like in real time in the NBA, you got to be so on top of the reads. It's not speed. You can't look at me and say my brain is slow. My brain is fast. My body might be slow, but I have to read whether a guy's gonna shoot, drive, go to the middle, pass. If you're not reading those things, you're not playing in the NBA. - Brian Scalabrine

A helpful reminder.

Keep it up – and as always ... Onwards!

Examining Life Expectancy & Longevity

Life expectancy has been on a steady global rise for longer than I've been alive. 

via worldometers

Meanwhile ... the United States has fallen to 48th on the list of countries with the highest life expectancy.

Hong Kong tops the list with an average life expectancy of 85.63 overall - and 88.26 years for females. 

For comparison, the U.S.'s average life expectancy is only 79.46.

Many factors potentially impact the findings, for example, the average height and weight of a population (with shorter & lighter people tending to live longer), diet, healthcare system, and work/life balance. 

While some of this is out of your control (OK, a lot of it is) - there are definitely things you can do to increase your healthy lifespan. Meanwhile, some people like Bryan Johnson are doing everything they can to live forever. 

Popular Mechanics put together a video series called How to Live Forever, or Die Trying, where they interview scientists and anti-aging gurus to give you insight into pursuing a future without death. 

Unfortunately, recent science has shown that adults in their mid-40s to early 60s begin to experience significant changes in their alcohol, caffeine, and lipid metabolism, an increase in risk of cardiovascular disease, and a noticeable decrease in their skin and muscle health. When you hit your 60s, you also begin to see negative changes in carbohydrate metabolism, immune regulation, kidney function, and a further decline in the previously mentioned factors. 

Here's the good news. Not only is science and technology getting better, but you're always in control. You can make lifestyle changes to increase your longevity, and you can also find supplements, treatments, and protocols that can reverse those factors of aging. Even simple measures like increasing your physical activity or avoiding alcohol before bed can make a massive difference. 

They say a healthy person has thousands of dreams, but an unhealthy person only has one.

That is one of the reasons I spend so much time and energy thinking about staying healthy, fit, and vital.

Focusing on the positive is important ... But to extend your healthy lifespan, you have to start by telling the truth and finding out what you and your body struggle with the most.

A doctor friend gave me some advice. He said it doesn't matter if you are on top of 9 out of 10 things ... it's the 10th that kills you.

Despite our best efforts, Mother Nature remains undefeated.

With that said, here are some of my previous articles on longevity and health: 

• Live Long & Prosper
• How Much Time Do You Have Left?
• Changing Your Definition Of Resolution
• Workouts That Work
• Getting Used To A New Normal (Pt 1, Pt 2, Pt 3)

The goal isn't just to stay alive longer; it's to live life to its fullest for as long as possible.

I recently joined a fantastic mastermind group called DaVinci 50, run by Lisa and Richard Rossi. It brings together a remarkable collection of medical professionals and entrepreneurs focused on the latest research, treatments, and opportunities in health and longevity.

Another great tool I rely on is Advanced Body Scan. Early detection is crucial, but so is tracking the history of your scans to monitor changes over time. In my opinion, the most valuable scan is always the next one.

Additionally, I use a growing list of trackers and biometric devices to measure my heart rate, along with apps and tools for mindfulness, breathwork, and journaling. Together, these practices recognize that mind, body, and spirit combine to define how you live your life.

To end this post, I'll use a farewell phrase I heard often while growing up ... it translates roughly to "go in health, come in health, and be healthy." It's a beautiful way to wish someone well on their journey, emphasizing the importance of health and well-being.

I hope you found something interesting.  Let me know what things and practices work best for you.