Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 20th, 2019

Most citizens don't have big savings account to buffer them against an unexpected expense or loss of income.

The Government Shutdown is one of the curveballs most workers haven't planned for adequately.

 

Actions have consequences.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links

• Full Translation: China's 'New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan' (2017). (Newamerica)
• Apple Buys 50 Business Class Seats from San Francisco to Shanghai Every Day. (MacRumors)
• Ford Built a Sweaty Robot Butt to Simulate Your Sweaty Human Butt. (BGR)
• Intimate Portraits of People over 100 Years Old Reveal the Beauty of Aging Bodies. (MyModernMet)
• Costco is Selling a 27-Pound Tub of Mac and Cheese that Lasts 20 Years. (BusinessInsider)

 

Trading Links

• Fear of Algorithm Trading is Really Just the Fear of the Unknown. (Quartz)
• Hedge Funds Suffer Worst Year since 2011. (FT)
• Nearly Half of Workers Earn Less Than $30,000. (Ritholtz)
• Michael Dell Gets $12 Billion Richer with Break from Public Eye. (Fortune)
• The New Impossible Burger 2.0 Won Everyone's Mouth at CES 2019, but That's Just the Beginning. (Forbes)

How Does America Use Its Land?

America is big and pretty heavily populated.  Surprisingly, 28% of the land is owned by the government (check out this YouTube video). 

As you might guess, the eastern US holds almost no federal land while the Western US has states that are primarily federal land (Nevada is 84.9% federal land). 

Bloomberg had an interesting series of infographics that covered America's land use and relative profitability.

To start, can you guess what takes up the most space ... 

 

Cows. 

 

Over 41% of the land in the contiguous US revolves around livestock and livestock feed. The farmland used to feed us is an afterthought in comparison - it makes sense when people talk about cows' environmental effect. 

Dave Merrill and Lauren Leatherby via Bloomberg

Urban areas make up only 3.6% of land use - but four out of five Americans live there (and this area accounts for about 40% of GDP). 

The map below gives us a rough idea of the split of U.S. land.  

Dave Merrill and Lauren Leatherby via Bloomberg

Urban growth is outpacing other categories, but we're also doing a good job of repairing forestland.  According to The Land Report magazine, the land owned by the top landowning families has grown to be larger than Florida - and is continuing to grow. 

There are a couple extrapolations that you can make from this information - but I'm curious  ... what do you take from this?

The Psychology Behind Gambling (and Everyday Traders)

Vegas and Wall Street share a lot in common. 

Over Time ... The House Wins

Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win.  In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.

Why does this happen?  The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incent people to play lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.

Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well.  Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win, 

The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.  

In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money - from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights and even the games themselves. 

Here is an infographic that lays it out for you. 

Bojoko via DailyInfographic

Most people aren't gamblers ... the fear of losing big inhibits them.  However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk-aversion when gambling. 

 

The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics. 

 

When you almost get it right - when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win - you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets ... because you're "so close". 

It's human nature to want to feel in control. 

This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing ... if you throw the dice in this particular way ... if you check your holdings at this time every day ... you have control. 

There is a big difference between causation and correlation. 

It is not hard to imagine that the majority of a trader's activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.  

 

Skill vs. Luck

There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.

In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill.  In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.

In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.

Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.

In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.

We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance ... Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that the majority of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.

Are you playing the right game?

 

A Quick Visit to Park City as a Noobie Skier

Humpty Dumpty tried skiing ... and is leaving with 10 fingers and 10 toes still attached in all the right places!

 

 

Skillful skiers relax and let physics do a lot of the work.  I used muscles way too much and way too often.

When I was done, I was WIPED!!!!  

Nevertheless, it was a lot of fun ... and I plan on doing it again.

Thanks Randy Garn for shaming into trying this. Park City, Utah was beautiful.

 

 

Tackled on Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving!

My children came to town, and we continued our tradition of spending time together watching some football. The top photo is from 2008. 

 

After looking at this picture, I recognize the burden I impose on my sons.  Some would call it crushing. 

 

 

That's my oldest son, Ben. He's a good sport.

My youngest son, Zach, was happy to make sure that I got mine too. 

 

 

He still plays Rugby. 

I am thankful for my family, my company and that I continually face a better class of challenges ... forging a path to a bigger future.

What about you?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 25th, 2018

 I remember when they told me that eating meat was bad for my health ...

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links  

• Is It Possible to Replay the Tape' of Evolution? (Futurity)
• Should You Be Eating a High-Fat, Low-Carb Diet like Keto? Scientists Weigh In. (Gizmodo)
• An 1861 Japanese Book of American History. (Neatorama)
• Beijing to Judge Every Resident Based on Behavior by End of 2020.(Bloomberg)
• How Many Fake Accounts are There on Facebook? Here's a Clue: 1.5 Billion Fake Accounts Were Removed in Just the past 6 Months. (Neatorama)

 

Trading Links

• Mark Cuban Explains Why Dallas Wasn't Selected as Amazon's HQ2 Location. (SportsDay)
• Jerry Jones: Wouldn't Sell Cowboys for Less Than $10 Billion.(Profootballtalk)
• Beyond Meat Continues to Sizzle, Announces IPO. (Forbes)
• Masayoshi Son: the Man behind a $90B Empire. (TechInAsia)
• How Juul, Founded on a Life-Saving Mission, Earned a $16B Valuation Despite the Controversy. (FastCompany)

Real or Fake? Data Science Debunks Internet Rumors

A French team, Escalenta, put together a series of debunking videos called "DATA SCIENCE vs. FAKE". 

Here are five that are short, educational, and entertaining. 

• Is cancer the world's first cause of mortality?
• Would cockroaches be the only survivors in the event of a nuclear war?
• Will the world soon run out of oil?
• Will our planet be able to sustain its 9 billion inhabitants in 2050?
• Will China still be the world's most densely populated country in 2100?

These days, it's easy to be confused by fake news, misleading statistics, and hyperbole. 

Hope this serves as a reminder to check your sources and remain healthily skeptical of random factoids delivered through the intertubes. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading, September 2nd, 2018

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links  

• The US Military is Funding an AI That's Learning to Write Its Own Code. (311institute)
• A Record Number of Americans Support Legalizing Marijuana, New Survey Shows. (Fool)
• These 10 Questions are Used to Test the US Public's Knowledge of Science. How Many Can You Answer?(ScienceAlert)
• Jeff Bezos: We Must Go Back to the Moon, and this Time to Stay'. (Wall Street Journal)
• Scientists Reanimate Disembodied Pigs' Brains but for a Human Mind, It Could Be a Living Hell. (The Conversation)

 

Trading Links

• If You Invested $1,000 in Apple 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Now. (CNBC)
• The 15 Richest Families in America. (CNW)
• Jobless Rate Looks like Old Times, but the Economy Doesn't.(New York Times)
• Facebook is Reportedly Exploring the Creation of Its Own Cryptocurrency. (BusinessInsider)
• Ninety Years of Lessons Learned: T. Boone Pickens' Letter to the Class of 2018. (Forbes)

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 26th, 2018

My experience is that you tend to see the same people on the way up ... as you do on the way down.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links

• Anonymous Bidder Pays $3.3 Million for Lunch with Warren Buffett. (New York Times)
• What If Your Business Was So Intelligent that Nothing Came as a Surprise. (Medium)
• Here's Why You Shouldn't Multitask, According to an MIT Neuroscientist. (Southernliving)
• Why No One Answers Their Phone Anymore. (The Atlantic)
• What is the 80/20 Rule? How the Pareto Principle Will Supercharge Your Productivity. (HubSpot)

  

Trading Links

• The Stock Market is on Pace to Hit Another, More Impactful Trillion-dollar Milestone. (Finance)
• Too Little Too Late': Bankruptcy Booms among Older Americans. (New York Times)
• THE MOST AMAZING STORY about BITCOIN YOU'VE EVER HEARD. (James Altucher)
• Why AI Isn't the Death of Jobs. (McKinsey)
• Los Angeles' Median Home Price Nears $1 Million as Fierce Bidding Wars Continue. (Forbes)

 

Willpower Doesn't Work - Benjamin Hardy

“The addict only needs to change one thing… their whole damn life.” — Ben Hill, Ph.D.

In one way, shape, or form, we’re all prone to some form of addiction or bad habit. Whether it’s food, adrenaline, TV, we all have a psychological or physiological “need” for something that we could probably afford less of.

Every second you spend or decision you make trying to fight that compulsion depletes your ability to say “no” to it the next time. If you want to permanently change your relationship with something ... willpower, alone, may not get you there.

That same principle applies to pursuing success or personal progress.  The trick is recognizing that you can create conditions that make your success much more likely.

Benjamin Hardy is a Ph.D. candidate in Organizational Psychology, a bestselling author of "Willpower Doesn’t Work", a top writer on Medium, and a friend from Genius Network.

I spoke with him about his new book, the idea that “willpower doesn’t work” and what the lessons taught in his book can do for you or your organization. Check it out.

 

No matter how much internal resolve you have, changing the story you tell yourself and the environment you create for yourself, are reliable ways to make meaningful and lasting change.

Once you’ve found what you really want and created the environment to support it – willpower is secondary.