Capitalogix

My Talk With The Sustainable Family Wealth Summit

I recently had the chance to speak at a wealth summit helping to educate family offices on the different opportunities available to them. Because of my work around the hedge fund space - and with emerging technologies like AI - I was brought in to focus on both topics for their audience.

The financial industry is intimidating - especially to newcomers - and while this summit is targeted towards family offices with $5MM+ in liquid assets, the lessons are accessible to any level of wealth. 

The presentation was somewhat of a departure from my normal talking points because it was more focused on the basics of hedge funds & trading in general.  Nonetheless, I think it's worth watching.  This clip shows my response to the moderator's previous presentation.  The presentation provides an introduction to hedge funds and alpha generation now and into the future.  We also talk about Madoff, performance fees, the 2008 crash, "why a hedge fund?" and a lot more. 

 

 

Hope that helped.  Let me know what you think.

 

It's Not About The Nail...

Apparently, a lot of wisdom can be learned from nails. I've shared the story about the Nail in the Fence in the past. 

This week a funny video called "It's Not About The Nail" recycled through my inbox again. 

Have you seen it yet? It has had 20+ million views across various social media and syndication sites.  So, you've likely run across it even if you haven't watched it.

 

 

via Jason Headley

The short version is that a woman tries to communicate with her significant other about her headache, which he quickly identifies as (literally) a nail in her forehead, with a seemingly obvious solution: Let’s get rid of that nail. She insists that that is absolutely NOT the problem, and if he would just listen to her, that would be clear to him. She explains, clarifies, objects, etc. Eventually, he does see the light ... and gives her not the solution he found so (literally) painfully obvious, but the solution she asked for.

 

"Don't try to fix it. I just need you to listen." It's obvious.

 

Good for a laugh, but, also good as a reminder. Simply put, a problem that may seem apparent to you may not be so obvious to the person with a problem ... and that might be the real problem.

Whether your takeaway is that we often miss the answer right in front of our face, or that we have to be aware of what other people need, or that you can't help people that don't want to be helped ... you're right. 

 

Fintech, AI & Analytics - My Webinar with IBM

Back in June, I participated in a series of webinars for IBM. The focus was on building smart and secure financial services. My talk, specifically, was on advanced computing and the new world of trading. Challenging times drive advancement - and what better time to talk about advancements in technology (and their applications) than in the midst of a global pandemic. 

You can watch a replay of the Fintech webinar here. There are several interesting presentations.  If you just want to watch my presentation, it starts at the 5:16 mark.

In addition, I've uploaded a different version of just my talk that you can watch directly here.

 

 

In the past. trading used to be about people trading with people. Markets represented the collective fear and greed of populations. So price patterns and other technical analysis measures really represented the collective fear and greed of a population. If you could capture that data and figure out certain statistical probabilities, you might have had an edge. The keywords is "might have". 

If you had more information than your competitors - an information asymmetry - you had an amazing edge. At one time that was being able to print out reports on stocks from that new-fangled technology called the internet. As time passed, it became harder and harder to gain an asymmetric information advantage. 

The rules, the players, and the game have all changed. Today, technological asymmetry is a major factor, and your edges come from things like bigger and faster servers and low latency connections to markets.

In the future, I see those edges combining as artificial intelligence starts to leverage exponential technologies and new data sources (like alternative data and metadata feedback loops). It is easy to imagine a time when information is the fuel, but your ability to digest and parse that information is the engine. 

I talk about much more in the video but boiling down the main points,  ask yourself (in business, in trading, in life) are you separating the signal from the noise?

A technological advantage doesn't mean anything if you're plugging in inaccurate or biased data into it. 

We've talked about it over the past few weeks with the never-ending news cycle - but it's a lesson that's infinitely applicable. 

Onwards! 

Let's Play: News Segment or Propaganda Piece?

There is nothing wrong with your television.  We will control all that you see and hear. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive.  Enjoy ....

 

The original,, from The Outer Limits TV show was: 

There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image; make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the outer limits.

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe, so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

Recently, we've seen a massive uptick in distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

To a certain degree, this is understandable and justified. Here is an example of the power of the media focused on a message.  Click to watch.

 

via Courier News

Propaganda has always been an issue, and almost everyone does it; governments, companies, etc. Luckily, it's easier to see today than in the past, but unluckily it's also more pervasive and insidious than before. 

It's to the point where if you watch the news you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news you're uninformed. 

The above segment portrays a rosy picture of Amazon's efforts to protect its workers while delivering essentials to the struggling homebound masses. This comes while Amazon has come under massive fire for removing some of its protections. 

Honestly, I use Amazon and, in my opinion, this isn't a massive breach of trust. News stations have a lot of time to fill, they often have sponsored content.

That being said, it's something to be cognizant of - not necessarily offended by.

Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens.

It's a great reminder that what you're seeing and hearing is carefully manufactured, and hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble. 

Solid Advice from MMA fighter Chael Sonnen

Chael Sonnen is a famous retired mixed martial artist. He was also a coach on the show The Ultimate Fighter. 

The advice in the video is fantastic - whether you're fighting in the ring or your own personal battles. 

 

via UFC

Silencing the voice in your head that says "you can't" is impossible, but ignoring the voice, and learning to compete with it is entirely possible. 

Failure is an option, but it's the only option available if you don't try. Motion begets motion. And, with persistence, failure can be a stone on the path to eventual success. 

Onwards! 

The Power of Asking The Right Questions

There's immense power in asking the right questions. 

Finding the right answers can be valuable too - but I'd argue finding the right questions is more important than finding the right answers. 

To some extent, if you ask the right questions, the answers don't matter as much as how easy it was to find appropriate answers, proof of progress, or meaningful momentum.

I shot this short video on the power of asking the right questions. Check it out. 

 

The exercise of asking the right questions is really an exercise in the power of framing - of digesting or accessing information differently. There's power even in the reframing of the same question:  "How do I survive the pandemic shelter-in-place quarantine?" vs. "In what ways has the pandemic shelter-in-place quarantine improved my relationships (or productivity, or health)?" 

In my experience, asking someone what they want often results in a response about what they don't want.  Yet, when the obstacle becomes the path forward it becomes easier to find the "hidden" gift.

You control what you make things mean and how things make you feel. In many respects, this is the difference between feeling sad or happy or feeling like a victim versus someone in control of their destiny.  Your ability to control your perception is the difference between feeling like life happens to you or for you. 

It's the same when tackling a research problem. When I hear "it can't be done" my first thought is usually "It can be done ... just not the way you were thinking about it."

The most important advances in society were impossible until they weren't.  The examples are too numerous to list.  But imagine telling someone in the middle ages that you could communicate with people around the globe in real-time, while seeing their faces, and sharing documents.  They'd try you as a witch faster than you could say "Zoom!" 

The term Moonshot, in a technology context, is an ambitious, exploratory, and ground-breaking project that was considered to be impossible (like going to the Moon).

Success is often a function of using Moonshots to set direction, then asking the right questions, being willing to see things differently, and finding a way to move in the right direction while gaining capabilities and confidence.  As long as you are doing those things, the trick is to keep going until you get there.  The result is inevitable if you do those things and don't give up.

Onwards!

Selective Attention: What Are You Missing?

Sticking with the philosophy theme, I encourage you to watch this video below on selective attention. 

Daniel Simons' experiments on visual awareness have become famous.  The primary conclusion drawn from his research is that we can miss incredibly obvious things, right in front of us, if our attention is focused elsewhere.

While watching the video, count how many passes the team in white makes. 

This is worth doing so you experience it yourself.

OK, click the video to do it now.

via Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris (Click Here To Read The Full Paper)

First, did you get the number of passes correct? Second, did you see the gorilla?

If you have already seen this video or heard of the study, it's much easier, but most people absolutely miss the Gorilla, despite it not being hidden. 

Think about how often your focus blinds you to the obvious.

This next video demonstrates "change blindness".  In an experiment, 75% of the participants didn't notice that the experimenter was replaced by a different person.

 

via Derren Brown

Warning: Objects In Your Attention Span Are Fewer Than You Perceive.

It's well known that we often miss objects in our field of view due to limited attention and change blindness, but, it's true with more than just sight. Moment by moment, the brain selectively processes information it deems most relevant. Experiments, like these, show the limits of our capacity to encode, retain, and compare visual information from one glance to the next. 

More importantly, this suggests that our awareness of our visual surroundings is far more sparse than most people intuitively believe.  Consequently, our intuition can deceive us far more often than we perceive.

 

via Pickles

As an entrepreneur, when I focus fully on something, it's as if everything else goes away. That level of focus can be a gift - but it can also be a curse. In Genius Network, we have a form we fill out at the beginning of each meeting. In it is a diagram where you rate your score on 8 factors: physical environment, career, money, health, friends & family, significant other, personal & intellectual growth, and fun & recreation

It's rare that I'm fully succeeding in all 8 ... we only have so much focus and bandwidth, it's inevitable I'll miss things. Clearly, in an information-rich environment, attention is a scarce and essential resource. So, pay attention (or automate the things you know need to be done right, every time).

What are you currently prioritizing, and what's falling to the side due to that focus? What are you missing?

Hope this was a helpful reminder. Let me know what you think about posts like this.  Thanks.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 3rd, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• China Has Started a Grand Experiment in AI Education. It Could Reshape How the World Learns. (TechReview)
• I Have Seen the Future And It's Not the Life We Knew. (The Atlantic)
• Army Ranger School is a Laboratory of Human Endurance. (Outside)
• Watch Picasso Make a Masterpiece. (YouTube)
• Michael Jordan Reportedly Once Turned down a $100 Million Appearance Fee. (FTW)

 

Trading Links:

• Buffett's Berkshire Posts Nearly $50 Billion Loss as Coronavirus Causes Pain. (Reuters)
• Bets against the Stock Market Rise to Highest Level in Years. (Wall Street Journal)
• NYSE Research Shows Humans on Exchange Floor Limit Volatility, COO Says. (Cheddar)
• Nasdaq, Cboe Fix Feeds Facing Options Overload. (WatersTechnology)
• China's National Blockchain Will Change the World. (CoinDesk)

 

The Show Must Go On (But In VR)

Several states are conditionally reopening. 

As they reopen, it's important to think about a new normal. I'm excited about what we'll accomplish on the backside of this pandemic. 

It challenged what we do and how we do it.  In many ways, the thing that doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

With that said, I saw this video, and it struck a chord. It shows a famous orchestra playing the theme to 2001: A Space Odyssey updated for 2020's social distancing. You’ve got classical music played by classical musicians – together, but only via technology.  This new form borrows from the past but creates something new.  As a result, we experience a new dawn.

via Opera North

I encourage you to think about what the Quarantine made better for you, your family, your business, the country, or the world?

 Sure, there are things that suck ... but there are things that surprised! 

Think about the things that you did more of during this period.  Are there new things that will make sense to continue as we move back to normal?  Are there things that you did less of – and it somehow made things better (or made room for better things)?

How can you combine the best of the old with the best of the new to create something even better?

Things are going back to normal ... but you get to decide your new normal ... and it can be better than your past.

Stay safe and enjoy the ride,

Killing Time: COVID-19 and Media Consumption

For most, being quarantined means significantly more screen-time.

Whether you're using it productively or unproductively, you're likely consuming much more media than before. 

That can be a double-edged sword. It has the potential to increase your understanding of events – but also increases the likelihood of echo chambers and the intake of misinformation (aka fake news). 

So, in this quarantine, what exactly are people looking at, and how are they staying informed?

VisualCapitalist put together various infographics on how different generations are consuming content.

via visualcapitalist

Unsurprisingly, younger generations are playing games, and millennials are focusing on food (cooking recipes and staying healthy while quarantined).  Meanwhile, the older generations are still sticking primarily to broadcast TV. 

(To View Other Generations Click Here) via visualcapitalist

Regardless of where you're consuming, it's important to manage what you're consuming, and how much you're consuming. You need to make sure you're using reliable resources and managing your time and energy. Too much can leave you worse off. 

Sometimes, less is more.