Capitalogix

How To Make Real-Time Decisions

I recently came across an interesting technique that fighter pilots use to make fast and accurate decisions in high-stakes situations. 

The Air Force calls it an OODA Loop.

It is an iterative feedback model that Colonel John Boyd designed as a foundation for rational thinking in chaotic situations like dogfights.

It stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. 

via Wikipedia

Why do people use decision models?  Obviously, to make better decisions.  But really, they use models to create a process that avoids many of the mistakes or constraints that prevent good decisions.

You make countless decisions every day - and at a certain point, you reach decision fatigue.  It can be harder to make decisions when you are tired, after you've made too many, or when the intensity of the environment distracts or drains you. 

It's one of the reasons I rely on artificial intelligence.  Here are some others. 

• Best practice becomes standard practice. 
• It accounts for signal and noise.
• It attempts to quantify or otherwise make objective assessments, comparisons, and choices. 
• And, it often gives you a better perspective by letting you apply and compare different models or decision techniques to achieve the desired outcome.

Nonetheless, many algorithms are dynamic and adaptive automation of processes or strategies that humans have used successfully before.

So, let's take a closer look at the OODA Loop, which stemmed from analyzing many interactions between and among fighter pilots during battle and training. 

Observe

The first step is to observe the situation to build the most accurate and comprehensive picture possible.  The goal is to take in the whole of the circumstances and environment.  It's not enough to observe and collect information ... you must process the data and create useful meaning. 

It's the same with data collection for an AI system.  Ingesting or collecting data isn't enough.  You have to be able to apply the data for it to become useful. 

Orient

The second step is less intuitive but very important.  When you orient yourself, it becomes easier to recognize strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to identify how changing the dimensionality or perspective alters the outcome. 

This step reconnects you with reality in the context of your cognitive biases, recent decisions, and more.  For example, have you received new information since starting?

I think of this as carrying a map and pulling out a compass while exploring new lands.  Sometimes, you need to remember where you started, and sometimes, you need to make sure you're going where you think you are. 

Decide

The last two steps provide the foundation for taking action. 

When there are multiple decisions in front of you, observing and orienting help you choose wisely. 

In business and with AI, you can go through these loops multiple times. 

Act 

Finally, remember that the best-made plans mean nothing if you don't act on them. 

Once you've taken action, you can reobserve, reorient, and keep moving forward. 

Conclusion

Like most good mental models, The OODA loop works in many situations and industries.

Speed is often a crucial competitive advantage.  For example, knowing (and taking decisive action) while others are still guessing (and taking tentative action) is something I call time arbitrage. 

Said another way, you make progress faster by walking in the right direction than by running in the wrong direction. 

These processes (and technology) also help us grow more comfortable with uncertainty and uncomfortableness.  Markets are only getting more volatile.  Uncertainty is increasing.  But, when you have the ability to adapt and respond, you can survive and thrive in any climate. 

New Beginnings or Evolutionary Growth

Last week, I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn ... and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 24 years. 

Twenty-four years ... That can’t be right.  Can it?

For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.

 

My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school.  I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk. 

However, depending on your definition, the 24th anniversary can be true or false.  Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration.  Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence through something we call Amplified Intelligence (which is the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance).

Thinking back on the effort, the ideas, the people, the inventions, and even the purpose ... in some respects, it feels like change is the only constant.  However, there are certain things that remain unchanged.  It is by observing these unaltered elements that you can truly understand the essence of the thing itself.

It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object.  It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time.  The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses.  It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.

The name “Capitalogix” originated in 2000, and a surprising amount of the original “North Star” purpose still exists.  Looking back at my early notes and plans, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing ... but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.  

Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come. 

If I had known how difficult it was going to be at the beginning, I would have probably never pursued it.  However, after experiencing the challenges and realizing how hard it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did.  This is because I now know that we didn’t just create a competitive advantage – we learned how to create a sustainable competitive advantage.

It’s easy for people to focus on a capability; it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in challenging conditions. 

They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger.  It’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.  

Life (and Business) constantly expose us to conditions and opportunities that lead to new beginnings and evolutionary growth.

As I write this, I see it at Capitalogix as we pursue new possibilities and probabilities. 

We didn’t come this far — just to come this far!

What about you?

Onwards!

Ranking The Most Popular AI Tools

Last week, I shared some of the tools I've been using recently to help run my business and life. 

As we all know, several AI tools are taking the world by storm - notably ChatGPT, but others as well. 

It only took ChatGPT 5 days to reach a million users. But the whole AI tools market is growing at a surprising rate.

VisualCapitalist put together a nice infographic on the most popular AI tools of 2023. 

via VisualCapitalist.

I am familiar with some of the apps mentioned (such as Quillbot, Character.ai, or Hugging Face), but I don't use them. On the other hand, I had no prior knowledge of others (such as NovelAI, Janitor AI, and Civitai).  

It's remarkable how much of the market ChatGPT currently controls on its own. In 2023, it is estimated that ChatGPT attracted 14.6 billion visitors, or more than 60% of all AI tool visits.

With that said, it's a marathon, not a sprint. The "feel" of this AI market reminds me of the dot-com bubble times of the late 90s and early 2000s. Many products took the world by storm only to be overthrown by a more robust competitor. For example, consider how few early web browsers or search engines still exist. I suspect that will be true of many early leaders here, too.

It isn't sexy, but it is a safe bet that Google's Bard and Microsoft's Copilot will continue to grow because of investment, acquisition, and distribution.

Remember, new technologies lead to new products and new platforms ... and the current crop of these AI tools are still only at the beginning of their cycles. I anticipate that many innovative frontstage products like ChatGPT will gain greater importance and profitability (albeit with less prominence) as they move backstage to become the backbone or plumbing infrastructure of various other products and services.

The development of new technologies brings about the emergence of new products and platforms. 

AI capabilities and adoption are growing exponentially. It will be interesting to see what else stays on the list three years from now. 

Posts like these are helpful reminders to consider technology adoption and hype cycles.

It's only the beginning ... Onwards!

Predictions for 2024

At the beginning of 2022, I shared VisualCapitalist's predictions for the year, and then at the end of the year, we checked to see how well they did. 

Since they posted a 2024 version, I figured, why not do it again? 

via VisualCapitalist.

You can find forecasts anywhere ... but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.

That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart. 

Some are pretty easy to predict - like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?

On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.

I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?

Some New AI Tools I've Been Hearing Good Things About

At the core of Capitalogix's existence is a commitment to systemization and automation. 

Consequently, I play with a lot of tools.  I think of this as research, discovery, and skill-building.  There is a place for that in my day or week.  However, few of those tools make it into my real work routine.

Here is a list of some of the tools that I recommend.  I'm not saying I use them regularly ... but in some cases, I should (it reminds me of some exercise equipment I have). 

Since the late 90's, I've been collecting tools to make my business more efficient and my life easier. 

It's a little embarrassing, but my most popular YouTube video is an explainer video on Dragon NaturallySpeaking from 13 years ago.  It was (and still is) dictation software, but from a time before your phone gave you that capability. 

Today, I have more tools than I know what to do with, but here are a few that keep coming up in conversations. 

Daily.AI - AI Newsletters

We've launched a new newsletter that is AI-curated by Daily.ai.  It matches the tone and style of my newsletters, gets good engagement, and (honestly) looks much better than what we put out.

Our handwritten newsletters still do better on some metrics - but it's a nice addition and a promising technology. 

For transparency, our handwritten newsletters get around 45% opens, and 10% click-throughs and our new AI newsletter is averaging around 38% opens but around 30% click-throughs.  Our normal newsletter isn't focused on links - which is why the click-through isn't as good. 

That said, Daily.AI is a great tool that creates compelling two-way communication with your audience way easier and cheaper (time, money, and effort) than something similar done manually.

This is an example of how people won't get replaced by AI ... people will get replaced by people who use AI better. 

Opus.pro - AI Video Repurposing 

Opus.pro takes your long-form video content and cuts it into short-form content that you can post as teasers to other channels like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, or Instagram Reels. 

For me, I tend to do more long-form content naturally.  I go on a podcast, speak at a conference, or to a mastermind group.  I end up with a 30-minute+ video that I don't have the time or interest in using.  This tool allows me to find the best parts quickly - and still allows editing to make it perfect. 

For someone interested in really pursuing video, it's not worth it.  If you're interested in being present online, and not worried about making it your career, this is a great tool to streamline and systematize your process. 

Type.AI 

Type.AI is an interesting AI-first document editing tool.  At its core, Type is a faster, better, and easier way to write.

A lot of people are using chat GPT for some editing.  Type is a good example of a next-generation tool that incorporates ChatGPT and other LLMs under the surface.  It is aware of what you are doing and lets you know what it can do. 

Type jumpstarts the creative process and banishes the blank page.  Underneath its gorgeous UI are powerful features for generating ideas, querying your document, experimenting with different models, and easily formatting your work.

The point is that with a tool like this, you don't have to be good at prompt engineering.  The tool does that for you – so you can focus on the writing.

GetVoila.AI 

Voilà is an all-in-one AI assistant in a browser extension.  That means it goes with you everywhere you go on the web and supercharges your browser by making it use ChatGPT to do what it does best without you having to do more than check what is available.

 

Voilà simplifies the process of working with the content of websites and URLs, making it easy to convert them into various types of content, summarize them, or extract key information.  For example, if I am watching a YouTube video, I can right-click and choose "Summarize" - it creates a short video summary from the transcript.  Or, while writing this sentence, a simple right-click lets me choose: Improve, Fix grammar, Make longer, Make shorter, Summarize, Simplify, Rephrase, or Translate.

 

This is more useful than I thought.  I use it well ... then forget about it.  When I use it again, I often find that it got better.  I think you will find that with a lot of the tools these days.

 Don't worry about how well you use tools like this.  It is enough that you get better at using tools like these to accomplish what you really want.

Explore a little.  Then, let me know what you found worth sharing.

A Look At Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies

Jim Simons is a mathematician and cryptographer who realized that the complex math he used to break codes could help explain financial patterns – and he made billions with those ideas in his notoriously secretive hedge fund firm, Renaissance Technologies. 

Though he stepped down in 2021, I still think his legacy is fascinating, not just for its impacts on the Hedge Fund industry - but on trading as a whole. 

He is famous not only for the duration of his success and the size of his results … but also for the way he made his money (with much lower volatility and risk than his peers and competitors). 

His background is impressive.  Simons taught at Harvard and MIT and worked with the NSA.  Here is a video where he shares some thoughts in a 2015 TED talk interview.  It's worth a watch. 

TED via YouTube

Despite advanced math still being a mystery to many,  we rely on it more than ever as the foundation of many exponential technologies.

The Heart of AI is Still in Humans

Simons built a team of mathematicians whose motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science (rather than hired guns who could be lured away by money or pure trading quants, biased by the industry).

This hits on something important. 

Humans are still important ... and companies that pursue exponential thinking and exponential technologies still have to champion integrity, culture, and purpose.

Better Math is a Competitive Advantage - So is More and Better Data

We stayed ahead of the pack by finding other approaches and shorter-term approaches to some extent … but the real thing was to gather a tremendous amount of data

– Jim Simons

On top of his intelligent hiring and novel approach to trading, Jim Simons recognized that an impressive data pipeline - and the technological infrastructure to digest and analyze that data was a moat to competitors. 

It is hard to have an edge if you use the same process and the same data as your competitors.

As the flywheels of commerce spin faster, edges will emerge and decay faster.  Finding a solution is only a step in an ongoing process.  

Robust, reliable, and repeatable innovation at scale is a meaningful competitive advantage.  That implies that idea factories will become as important (if not more so) than factories that produce material products.  Likewise, innovation funnels will become more important than sales funnels. 

The world changes at the speed of thought ... and as technology continues to improve ... even faster.

Onwards!

2023 In Review

Last week, we asked how markets did in 2023.  This week, I want to highlight some of the significant events that occurred in 2023.   

Here is a Visual Capitalist infographic to help.

2023 was defined by two major themes, the first being geopolitical strife, and the second being the proliferation of artificial intelligence. 

What geopolitical strife, you ask?  Seemingly everywhere you looked (from China and Taiwan to Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East, or even the happenings in  Britain and the U.S.) ... This was an interesting year. 

Of course, there were other types of significant events, too, like the collapse of several Silicon Valley/Crypto banks. 

Many of the trends we've seen in 2023 will have aftershocks in 2024.  Still, the only thing constant is change ... and it will be interesting to see what changes.  I think we've seen increased caution as a result of the last few years, but I think people are now getting used to the new normal. 

Do you expect 2024 to be better?

Time will tell.

Don't forget the Trump trials and that it is an election year ... or that crypto is making a comeback – and AI will only accelerate.

We live in interesting times!

Cowboys In The Playoffs?!

You’re probably aware that I’m a big Dallas Cowboys fan.  Unfortunately, they were crushed today by the Green Bay Packers in the first round of the NFL Playoffs.

 

Here is a photo I grudgingly took with a Packers fan at the game.

 

The Cowboys looked great all season, except when they didn’t… which was rare (but extreme).  It happened three times this year.  Early in the season against the Cardinals and the 49ers ...and obviously, it happened again today.

Only one team can win the Super Bowl.  I know that.  Yet, somehow, the Cowboys seem to have a real chance most seasons.  That is probably why the NFL tries so hard to create parity ... to keep fans interested.

On a lighter note, one thing we can probably agree about is that geriatric white dudes shouldn’t rap.  At least ... that’s what my kids tell me when I try. 

Unfortunately, the Owner of the Cowboys, Jerry Jones, didn’t get the memo. 

Here is the video.

Hopefully, our season (next year) will be better than that video. 

For another light-hearted NFL video, here is an oldy but goodie.

It is kind of the opposite of one of those old Kung Fu movies where the dubbed words you hear aren’t synched with the mouth movement. 

Here, it looks like they are saying what you hear … it’s just that someone changed the words.  You could call it “So THAT’S what they were saying …”

 This video works for the same reason trading often doesn’t… Humans are great at finding patterns (even when there isn’t really a pattern to find).

Regardless, this was fun (and it’s gotten over 70 million views on YouTube).

Better luck next year.

Almost 20 Years Together ...

I met Jennifer in April of 2004.  We got married in January of 2008.  That means we celebrated our 16th Wedding Anniversary this week – and we're nearing 20 years together. 

Wow, how time flies!

On one hand, it seems like it was just yesterday.  On the other hand, portions of that decade seemed to take forever.

As an entrepreneur, I live in a weird "tense".  For me, the future and the present are often blended.  Meaning, that I imagine the future I want – and then I find the path to create (or manifest) that destiny.  Not surprisingly, some of the things that were easy to imagine were hard to bring into reality (in a reproducible, efficient, and effective manner or process) ... And these things seem to take forever.  

Other things (like relationships or the growth and maturation of my kids) seemed to happen in the blink of an eye.

I consciously try to be more mindful and grateful for the progress (and even the minor moments, wins, or curiosities) before me.  The truth is that if you fail to notice them, you don't experience them.

Here is to experiencing all that you need or want ... and I hope the rest serves as raw material, learning, or fuel to get you there faster.

Onwards!

How'd Markets Do In 2023?

The Market is not the Economy.  I know it, but it feels like it to many people ... especially in an election year.

I still think about the often-quoted quip “It’s the economy, stupid” - coined by James Carville, a strategist in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 U.S. presidential election against incumbent George H. W. Bush.

2022 was the worst year for the U.S. stock market since the 2008 financial crisis.

2023 was much better, but much of the gains came in concentrated sectors.  

To help you get a sense of 2023 returns, VisualCapitalist put together a few helpful infographics.

First, the S&P had a stellar year, with the S&P 500 up 20.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up almost 40%. 

 

via Visualcapitalist

Overall, markets improved, which is unsurprising after the year we had in 2022.  With Energy seeing such a massive boom last year, it recessed a little, but real estate and technology both saw strong gains. 

Here is a more global look at return by asset class.

via Visualcapitalist

Japan saw significant growth, partly driven by China’s Real Estate issues. 

Oil, commodities, and Chinese equities all lost, but that loss in oil and commodities could be driven by China’s woes. 

In 2022, I said it was unlikely that the trends would continue into 2023, which wasn’t much of a prediction ...

On one level, I try not to think about or predict markets, because I know better.  On the other hand, it is an election year, and my opinion matters as a proxy for what people like me think or feel in an election year.  So, with that in mind, I predict that we see a brief market correction blamed on various geopolitical instabilities and partisan weaknesses, followed by a long and steady push higher as we approach the November elections.

What do you expect for 2024?

Do you think the continued investment into generative AI will impact these trends?