Capitalogix

The Shapes of Stories

Seemingly complex things are often simpler when understood.

This applies to many things.

For example, great writing is diverse and nuanced ... but its underlying structure isn't.

Kurt Vonnegut wrote a number of "Classics", including Cat's Cradle, Slaughterhouse-Five, and The Sirens of Titan.

For all his great writing, and all the complexities, he simplified stories into a few basic story shapes.

Here is a graphic that explains the concept.

Here is a 17-minute video of Vonnegut discussing his theory of the Shape of Stories.  You can get the basic concepts in the first 7 minutes ... but he is witty and the whole video is worth watching. 

 

 

You can explore a bit more elaborate version of his "Shapes of Stories" from his rejected Master's thesis from the University of Chicago.

Vonnegut's idea was fulfilled not too long ago--a computer was used to identify story shapes. Researchers extracted the emotional trajectories of 1,327 stories and discovered that there are six core emotional arcs:

• Rags to riches (a rise)
• Tragedy (a fall)
• Man in a hole (fall, then a rise)
• Icarus (rise, then a fall)
• Cinderella (rise, then a fall, then a rise)
• Oedipus (fall, then a rise, then a fall)

 For more on writing from Kurt Vonnegut:

• How To Write With Style
• Eight Rules For Writing Fiction

 

Why We Don't See Aliens

This week, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that we've been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

How naive to think that election news would be the craziest stuff you'd hear this holiday season ...

Back to aliens (for the record, that was a sentence I haven't typed before).  There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

To simplify the issue, there are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies), which are similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Let's Play: News Segment or Propaganda Piece?

There is nothing wrong with your television.  We will control all that you see and hear. We can deluge you with a thousand channels or expand one single image to crystal clarity and beyond. We can shape your vision to anything our imagination can conceive.  Enjoy ....

 

The original,, from The Outer Limits TV show was: 

There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image; make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to the outer limits.

As a society, we're fairly vulnerable to groupthink, advertisements, and confirmation bias. 

We believe what we want to believe, so it can be very hard to change a belief, even in the face of contrary evidence. 

Recently, we've seen a massive uptick in distrust toward news agencies, big companies, the government, and basically anyone with a particularly large reach. 

To a certain degree, this is understandable and justified. Here is an example of the power of the media focused on a message.  Click to watch.

 

via Courier News

Propaganda has always been an issue, and almost everyone does it; governments, companies, etc. Luckily, it's easier to see today than in the past, but unluckily it's also more pervasive and insidious than before. 

It's to the point where if you watch the news you're misinformed, and if you don't watch the news you're uninformed. 

The above segment portrays a rosy picture of Amazon's efforts to protect its workers while delivering essentials to the struggling homebound masses. This comes while Amazon has come under massive fire for removing some of its protections. 

Honestly, I use Amazon and, in my opinion, this isn't a massive breach of trust. News stations have a lot of time to fill, they often have sponsored content.

That being said, it's something to be cognizant of - not necessarily offended by.

Personally, I believe I am reasonably aware and somewhat immune from propaganda. That probably isn't as true as I'd like to believe.

It used to be true that winners wrote history (think empires, wars, etc.). Now, the one that delivers the most broadcast narratives shapes the emotional and seemingly logical responses to what we perceive to be happening around us.

The result impacts elections, financial markets, buying choices, and countless other areas of our life. 

As A.I., Bots, and social media grow, our ability to discern truth from 'truthiness' weakens.

It's a great reminder that what you're seeing and hearing is carefully manufactured, and hopefully, it encourages you to get outside your bubble. 

Generations of Fathers

Happy Father's Day!

Both of my children are adults now. It's strange to consider them fully-functioning autonomous adults – because I remember their childhood like it was yesterday (like worrying whether the soft spot on their heads would ever fill in and harden up, or if they'd ever stop sleeping with a nightlight). 

Today, they're men doing great things,  and I get to be proud of them.  I also get to be proud of my role in their growth and proud of passing down the wisdom of my dad, and his father, and the rest who came before me. 

It has been 20 years since my father died ... Crazy how time flies! He was my best friend and an amazing mentor. His vision for what I could become helped shape and inform my goals, my accomplishments, and yes, me.

For example, after winning the State Championship in the shot put, my dad came down from the stands onto the field.  He hugged me and told me that he knew I could do it. Then, he looked deeply into my eyes and asked whether I was a little disappointed?  "Disappointed?" I asked. "But, Dad, I won."  He looked at me and said, "Winning is great ... but you didn't throw a personal best."   He was proud, and he loved me.   He recognized that winning was important ... but he wanted to remind me that the other throwers weren't my real competition.  

In life, to be and do your best, the competition is really with yourself; and we both knew I could do better.

My Dad believed in setting high standards.  He taught me that most people's lives are defined by their minimum standards.  Why?  Because once those standards get met, it is easy to get distracted and complacent.

One of his favorite sayings was, "The difference between good and great is infinitesimal."  This applies to many things. For example, people who are good take advantage of opportunities; people who are great create them. 

As time goes on, I recognize how much of my Dad is in me. And, likewise, how much his father was a part of him ... and how parts of all of us have somehow become a part of my children. 

 

Me, my dad, and grandfather

My Impact on My Children

I hope I've imparted many important lessons to my children - but one of the most impactful lessons was teaching them to enjoy reading. 

Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games. I tried something different.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books. And, they also received more books in the process. 

Here's how it worked. 

When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished ten books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store or game store for them to choose any game they wanted.

When they finished a hundred books, they earned a game system. 

There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortably reading a particular genre (teen fiction) and didn't want to read the kind of books that I thought he was ready to read (and might enjoy more).  So, I created a bonus system that counted a specific book (it might have been a Tom Clancy novel) as three books.  I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

As they started to get into their teenage years, I needed to up the ante a little. So, 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice. Both boys cashed in and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad.

So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

Three generations of Getsons

Fortunately, in child-rearing, everyone can win. My sons love reading to this day - and have learned that they can accomplish anything they set their minds to... one step at a time. 

My sons weren't ever forced to stop watching TV, or read a certain type of book, and always had endless things to keep them entertained. 

Win-win. 

I like to think each generation becomes better (as people and parents) due to the cumulative experience of the generations that came before them. 

We stand on the shoulders of giants. 

I look forward to seeing how my (eventual) grandchildren turn out, and how little pieces of me and their great-grandfather show up. 

Hope you had a great weekend.

Sometimes, Less Is More

The idea of “less is more” was popularized in 1947 as an argument for minimalism. But today, more than ever, minimalism is important in all aspects of life. You can see it in the resurgence of simplistic design, or Marie Kondo, or in the re-popularization of stoicism. 

There’s too much competition for our attention. We can’t buy everything we see on TV, deep-dive into every interesting topic we learn about on the internet, or track everything that’s happening in the world.

Instead, we tend to focus on what is relevant or interesting to us.

In business, there are Specialists and Generalists.  It isn’t hard to imagine that their reading lists, habits, and sources of happiness or fulfillment are probably quite different.

The same is true for  Simplifiers and Multipliers (which is a concept that Dan Sullivan at Strategic Coach has written a book about).

In your business career, to get to where you are, you’ve been successful at two things. You’ve simplified things, which gave you an advantage. And you multiplied things, which gave you an advantage.  Said a different way, as a simplifier, you took something that was complex for everybody else, and you made it simple. And as a multiplier, you took something that was a new solution, and you had successes multiplying it out in the world so that a lot of people could get the advantage of your simplifications.

But the truth is most people are either primarily simplifiers or multipliers.  The best partnerships happen when you pair the two.  Amazing conversations happen when a simplifier says to a multiplier, “I’ve got this really neat solution ... What would you do with it?” Each has something the other doesn’t; and the combination is often exponential.

I am primarily a simplifier.  So, I tend to look for people or technologies to multiply what I produce.

I shot a video on the topic. Click here to watch.

 

The internet and global digital economy enable you to find an audience for almost anything. 

No matter how far you niche down to find your true calling, there are likely people who are just as excited about what you do as you. 

So, sometimes less is more.

Are you a simplifier or a multiplier?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 3rd, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• China Has Started a Grand Experiment in AI Education. It Could Reshape How the World Learns. (TechReview)
• I Have Seen the Future And It's Not the Life We Knew. (The Atlantic)
• Army Ranger School is a Laboratory of Human Endurance. (Outside)
• Watch Picasso Make a Masterpiece. (YouTube)
• Michael Jordan Reportedly Once Turned down a $100 Million Appearance Fee. (FTW)

 

Trading Links:

• Buffett's Berkshire Posts Nearly $50 Billion Loss as Coronavirus Causes Pain. (Reuters)
• Bets against the Stock Market Rise to Highest Level in Years. (Wall Street Journal)
• NYSE Research Shows Humans on Exchange Floor Limit Volatility, COO Says. (Cheddar)
• Nasdaq, Cboe Fix Feeds Facing Options Overload. (WatersTechnology)
• China's National Blockchain Will Change the World. (CoinDesk)

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 16th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Growth Mindset vs. Fixed Mindset: Which One Do You Have? (Addicted2Success)
• 5 Soon-to-Be Trends in Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning. (Forbes)
• How Many Hours of Sleep is Enough? Age Chart Shows What You Need to Feel Rested. (Inverse)
• The Way the World Ends: Not with a Bang But a Paperclip. (Wired)
• Drinking Alcohol Every Day Can Speed up Brain Aging by One Week Per Session, According to a Study of More Than 17,000 People. (Insider)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Tesla Stock is Soaring. Madness or Visionary Investing? (APNews)
• The Decade That Completely Transformed Venture Capital. (Quartz)
• The 13 Hottest IPOs to Watch for in 2020. (Kiplinger)
• The Edison of the Slot Machines. (TheParisReview)
• Elon Musk's Mind-reading Technology Could Be about to Take a Big Leap Forward. (ZDNet)

Hedge Funds: Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night

Hedge Funds - and active managers in general - have been under fire for several years. Almost 50% of Hedge Funds saw a decline in assets under management (AUM) in 2018.

On the surface, it makes sense ... during a long-term bull market, indexes and other passive options like ETFs become en vogue. During a bear market, active management offers more opportunities to outperform the market. 

Hedge funds are designed to, you guessed it, hedge risk. So, when investors see less risk in indexes, the demand for active management declines. Especially when performance declines as well. 

via Bloomberg

When something monumental changes the past is left behind and you begin a new future. When electricity was created, no one was going to make candles the primary form of lighting. After the introduction of the car, horses & buggies were never going to be the #1 mode of transportation, and we're also seeing that with the adoption of AI & automation. 

Most changes aren't monumental.

I have a fundamental belief that things go in and out of phase and that what's once old is often new again. You see it with fashion, music, phones - etc. First phones got bigger in order to do more, then smaller for convenience, and then larger again so that old dudes like me can read the text. 

I believe it's the same with active management - the techniques may have gone out of phase - but active management still offers the potential outperformance. The trend mirrors the stock market; bulls turn to bears when buyers run out - so as outflows from funds continue to peak, and funds continue to close, it seems reasonable that there will come a time when demand rises again. 

At that point, "active management" will give way to "Active Switching™" (which goes beyond stock picking to choose the markets, techniques, time frames, risk levels, allocation strategies, etc. using a variety of techniques, data sources, and real-time contextual clues).

This is part of what's covered in my upcoming book, "Next On Wall Street: Understanding AI's Inevitable Impact on Trading."

Looking forward to launching that book in early 2020.

Investing In Your Future

I think about investments a lot ... which makes sense given my profession. 

Yet, there are three key investments I think are more important than any monetary investment you can make. 

The first is in yourself - in your physical and mental health. I recently spent a whole month introducing my approach. 

Physical and mental health was a major topic at last weekend's Genius Network Annual Event in Arizona.  I enjoyed listening to speakers like Peter Diamandis, Andrew Weil, Christopher Voss, and Dave Asprey - which brings me to key investment #2.

Find Your Genius Network

"You are the averrage of the five people you spend the most time with." - Jim Rohn

I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future, based on the quality of the people you spend the present with. That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. Peer groups help us set higher standards for our behavior, help us aim higher in our aspirations, and they help us stay better focused and committed to big-picture goals.

I belong to several executive and business leader peer groups like Genius Network,  EO or Strategic Coach—groups that double as advisory boards, counselor’s offices, and idea factories. They allow me to see, hear, and discuss things I don't normally think about, talk about, or even notice.  Peer groups bring blind spots to my attention and keep me fully connected to trends that are transforming industry on a global scale.

I've gained partners, life-long friends, and ideas that will last a lifetime. I've also started taking my son, Zach, to these events so he can get a headstart. 

Dan Sullivan, founder of Strategic Coach, met my son and proclaimed "The book reader!" 

Good memory. 

Which brings me to my third key investment - and the one I'm most proud of. 

Spread The Wealth

It is not enough to have a good mind; the main thing is to use it well. -Rene Descartes

Like many parents, I wanted to teach my children that, to a large extent, they control what happens to them. One of the first ways I did that was to set up a "game" for them to earn video games. Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books. Here is a photo from way back then.

Paid With Play.

Here's how it worked. Every 10 books earned them a video game, and every 100 books earned them a video game console. When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished the requisite number of books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store (does anyone remember CompUSA?) for them to choose whatever game (or console) their heart desired.

How Can You Encourage a Jump to the Next Level?

“Don’t just read the easy stuff. You may be entertained by it, but you will never grow from it.” – Jim Rohn

There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortable reading a certain type of book, and didn't want to read the kind of books that I read. So, I created a bonus system that counted a particular book as three books. I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

It's a great way to learn about your kids.

I used the bookstore to get a sense of how the boys were doing. For example, I might say "I notice that you read five books in that series, maybe you'd like this book". Or, "That sure is a lot of science fiction; what was the last biography you read?" For the most part, though, I didn't care what they read. The key was to get them to want to choose certain books for their own reasons. Ultimately, their preference meant they were learning to love reading - and once you love reading, you'll eventually branch out on your own.

It Puts Them In Control of Their Destiny and Rewards.

My younger son likes competition. He also broke or misplaced many things. So, in order to earn back the Game Boy unit that he lost, I challenged him to read five books in five days. These weren't easy books either. It was designed to stretch him, and also to teach him that he could read a book a night. The bet was that he either finished all the books in the allocated time, or none of them counted towards games or Game Boys. On the other hand, if he read a book a night for two weeks, not only would he get to have his Game Boy back, the books would count towards a game too. It worked like a charm, and we were both happy.

So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

To end the game, as they entered their teenage years, I upped the ante a little. 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice and had beaten the system. Both boys cashed in ... and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad. I got what I wanted, though; my boys love reading, and I was able to teach them two key ideals.

1. The secret to growth is to constantly challenge yourself
2. You can accomplish anything you put your mind to … one step at a time.

That is an investment that pays dividends for a long time.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 25th, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How to Take a Moneyball Approach to Business Data and Analytics. (TechRepublic)
• The Best Books on Philosophy of Technology. (FiveBooks)
• Explainer: What is Quantum Machine Learning and How Can It Help Us? (The Conversation)
• Most Top AI Researchers in the U.S. are Foreign. (Axios)
• Alien Life on Exoplanets May Be 'More Abundant and Active' Than on Earth, Say Scientists. (Forbes)

 

Trading Links:

• Burgundy Wine Investors Have Beaten the Stockmarket. (Economist)
• Bonds are the Most Expensive They've Been in 64 Years. Here's What That Means for Your Portfolio. (Fortune)
• What is High-Frequency Trading and How Does It Work? (TheStreet)
• The CEOs of Nearly 200 Companies Just Said Shareholder Value is No Longer Their Main Objective. (CNBC)
• Bugatti is Making Only 10 of these $9 Million Supercars. (CNN)