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The Real Business We're All In ...

I’ve given a few speeches recently and have new subscribers to our weekly commentary (click here to sign up), so I thought it was a good time to write about the importance of data.

I revisit this topic about once a year because it’s important. 

The Hidden Engine: Why Data Fuels Innovation

Technology and innovation are popular topics, but people often ignore what makes it all possible ...  the hidden foundation,  data.

Data is the lifeblood of modern businesses and the fastest-growing resource we have.

The quest to find and use data has created a modern-day “Wild West.” While AI is often positioned as a “Gold Rush,” data is the precious resource powering the race.

Another way to look at it is that data is the ammunition used by today’s tech titans in their battle for dominance.

In either case, it is easy to see that data is a scarce and valuable resource.

The Data Deluge: Finding Signal in the Noise

We’re living in an age of data explosion.  Every day, a staggering 328.77 million terabytes of data are created, amounting to an estimated 120 zettabytes of new data by year’s end.

Video is a significant driver, but so is the Internet of Things, which is growing more than 15% annually.  There are now almost 20 billion connected devices, and that number will continue to grow. 

This rapid growth presents a challenge.  Tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft all hold unprecedented data troves, creating a race for ownership and control.  Regulations struggle to keep pace with this digital stampede.

Rapid growth means little time to create adequate rules.  Everyone’s jumping to own more data than the next and to protect that data from prying eyes.

As a great example of this, I often warn people to keep their intellectual property off of ChatGPT or other hosted language models. 

But here’s the real concern: Are we losing sight of the signal in all this noise?  Just having vast amounts of data isn’t enough.  The true value comes from extracting meaningful insights – the nuggets of gold buried within the data avalanche.

To Do The Impossible, Make The Invisible Visible

Collecting basic data and using basic analytics used to be enough, but it is not anymore.  The game is changing. 

I also see it trading, but it’s pervasive in every industry and our personal lives as well. 

For example, traders used to focus on price data ... but there has been an influx of firms using alternative data sets and extraordinary hardware and software investments to find an edge.  If you’re using the same data sources as your competitors and competing on the same set of beliefs, it’s hard to find a sustainable edge. 

Understanding the game others are playing (and its rules) is important.  However, that’s only table stakes.

Figuring out where you can find extra insight or where you can make the invisible visible creates a moat between you and your competition and lets you play your own game.

Here is a quick high-level video about Data as fuel for your business.  Check it out.

 

It is interesting to think about what’s driving the new world (of trading, technology, AI, etc.), which often involves identifying what drove the old world.

Decoding the New World: Data as the Catalyst

Understanding today’s driving forces – like AI – often involves examining what propelled past eras.

History has a way of repeating itself.  Even when it doesn’t repeat itself, it often rhymes.

Before e-mails, fax machines were amazing.  Before cars, people were happy with horses and buggies.

The key to unlocking new economic realities lies in fresh perspectives.

In this new world, new or better data is often the game-changer.  It’s the alternative dataset that allows us to approach challenges and opportunities from entirely new angles.

Before data analytics, businesses relied on intuition and limited information.  Now, data empowers us to see patterns and make data-driven decisions, propelling innovation at an unprecedented pace.

These comparisons help explain the importance of data in today’s new world economics.

One of the more recent shifts is in the value of synthetic data. 

via Gartner

Synthetic data can mimic the statistical properties of real-world data, making it useful for a variety of purposes.

For example, synthetic data can be used to train machine learning models when collecting traditional data is impractical or presents privacy concerns.  It is also used in various other applications, such as data privacy, testing and development, data augmentation, simulation and modeling, risk assessment and management, and enhancing data quality.

You don’t have a competitive advantage if you use the same data and the same process as other people.  That’s why understanding how to recognize and capture synthetic data is important.  It can shift your perspective, add dimensionality, help you solve different problems, and create transformative results.  

In the very near future, I expect these systems to be able to go out and search for different sources of information. It's almost like the algorithm becomes an omnivore. Instead of simply looking at market data or transactional data, or even metadata, it starts to look for connections or feedback loops that are profitable in sources of data that the human would never have thought of. – Howard Getson

While data is the foundation, it’s about transforming your data into actionable insights. 

By identifying your real business, the KPIs of success, and what data you’re underutilizing, you can massively improve the efficiency and effectiveness of your business and create new products that transform your future. 

In a word of caution, there are two common mistakes people make when making data-driven decisions.  First, people often become slaves to the data, losing focus on the bigger picture.  This is the same mistake people make with AI.  Both are tools, not the end goal.  Second, even the most insightful data can’t predict black swans.  It’s essential to exercise caution and prepare for the unexpected. 

The future of data is bright, but it’s also littered with potential challenges.  Privacy concerns and data misuse are hot-button topics, as are fake news and the ability of systems to generate misleading data.  In addition, as we gain access to more data, our ability to separate signal from noise becomes more important.

One of the biggest problems facing our youth—and really all of us—is how much information is thrust at us every waking moment of the day.  No previous generation has had this much access to data.  As a result, many are actually less informed than in the past.  Soundbites become the entire news story, and nuance gets lost in the echo chambers. 

The question becomes, how do you capitalize on data without becoming a victim of it? 

Food for thought!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 14th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Trump Plans to Win the Presidency. (CNN)
• TSA Found More Than 1,500 Firearms on Airline Passengers in First 3 Months of 2024. (Yahoo)
• The U.S Space Force Just Greenlit a First-Of-Its-Kind Combat Exercise in Outer Space. (SlashGear)
• Human vs. Machine: Framing the Right Problems for AI to Solve. (UXDesign)
• BookPecker.com: 14509 Books Summarized in 5 Bullet Points. (BookPecker)

 

Trading Links:

• Israel Says It Fended Off 99% of Iran's Drone and Missile Strike; Biden Seeks 'Diplomatic Response'. (MW)
• Israel-Iran War Fears Suddenly Spark $500 Billion Bitcoin and Crypto Price Crash—Hitting Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Solana and Dogecoin. (Forbes)
• The Billionaire's Social Calendar: The Must-Attend Events for the World's Wealthiest Business Icons. (Y-Finance)
• There are 4 Reasons the Stock Market is Poised to Keep Soaring to Record Highs, Goldman Sachs Says. (Finance)
• BlackRock Just Reported a Record $10.5 Trillion in Assets Under Management as Client Cash Poured in and Markets Delivered. (Insider)

 

Where Does a U.S. Tax Dollar Go?

With tomorrow being the deadline to submit your taxes (if you haven't filed an extension), it feels appropriate to look at where your tax dollars go. 

 

via visualcapitalist

This is obviously an approximation, but it's an interesting one nonetheless. 

Social Security is the largest draw, but it is also one of the public services at the highest risk of failure due to an increasingly large aging population (with fewer active workers contributing to the system). 

Unsurprisingly, Health and National Defense are the next biggest draws from your taxes. Medicare and Medicaid are expensive, and we do have the largest military force, by a large margin. We spend more on defense than the following ten countries combined. 

It's interesting to see ... but I might add a cent to my tax dollar if it meant they'd fix all these potholes. 

Just Sardines In A Tincan...

I fly a lot.

In fact, I hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines in 2019 (back when frequent flyer programs were about flying frequently rather than credit card spending).

It is 2024, and I am now just below 5.5M.  That means I averaged a little over 100,000 miles per year, even through the COVID shutdown.

Yes, I expect that my travel will slow down.  But as I traveled, I didn't expect it to continue at the pace it did. 

Nonetheless, it has been good for me, and the time spent traveling has been productive.

I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

As you probably noticed, Airline Status means much less today than it used to (which is why it feels even more important to get).  Every week, the airlines seem to make the space between seats smaller while the time it takes to find overhead luggage space gets shorter.  It seems like most airlines could change its slogan to "We are not happy until you're not happy."

Yet the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

It looks more like a set from Star Trek than the hellscape passengers complain about regularly. 

What about the boarding process? 

Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

via CGP Grey

If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

via Sam Chui

You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour ... What a bargain!

Of course, you could also use Zoom.  Times are changing!

I fly a lot.

In fact, I hit five million "butt-in-seat" miles on American Airlines in 2019 (back when frequent flyer programs were about flying frequently rather than credit card spending).

It is 2024, and I am now just below 5.5M.  That means I averaged a little over 100,000 miles per year, even through the COVID shutdown.

Yes, I expect that my travel will slow down.  But as I traveled, I didn't expect it to continue at the pace it did. 

Nonetheless, it has been good for me, and the time spent traveling has been productive.

I have a different workflow when I travel, and it works for me.

Ultimately, I believe that good things happen when you are in motion! 

Many people, however, are focused on the hassle.

The practical realities of travel mean I spend some time thinking about the things airlines do well or poorly.  Nonetheless, I appreciate the benefits more than the frustrations.

As you probably noticed, Airline Status means much less today than it used to (which is why it feels even more important to get).  Every week, the airlines seem to make the space between seats smaller while the time it takes to find overhead luggage space gets shorter.  It seems like most airlines could change its slogan to "We are not happy until you're not happy."

Yet the planes themselves are getting better.  Here, for example, is what an empty 787 looks like. 

It looks more like a set from Star Trek than the hellscape passengers complain about regularly. 

What about the boarding process? 

Here is a video that presents the findings from studies on experimental boarding methods that work better. 

via CGP Grey

If you really don't like commercial flying, you can fly on any of the "economical" private options like JetSmarter or WheelsUp. Or, better yet, you could be like this guy and buy the world's only private Boeing 787 Dreamliner. 

via Sam Chui

You can rent it out for a measly $70k an hour ... What a bargain!

Of course, you could also use Zoom.  Times are changing!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - April 7th, 2024

This week, New York experienced a 4.8 earthquake. Now, a few days later, we're going to have a solar eclipse. Can you imagine this happening even a few hundred years ago? We'd be burning witches at the stake to try and appease the heavens. 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Your Last Minute Guide to America's Best Solar Eclipse Since 1806. (Forbes)
• Israel Scrambles GPS Signals as Country Girds for Potential Retaliation From Iran. (Wall Street Journal)
• Visual Summary of Thinking in Bets. (AnnieDuke)
• The White House Tells NASA to Create a New Time Zone for the Moon. (EnGadget)
• The Men's College Basketball Final Four Teams Earn $19.3 Million in Revenue. The Women's Teams Earn 27% of That. (Insider)

 

Trading Links:

• The Costco Shoppers Putting $2,000 Gold Bars in Their Carts. (Wall Street Journal)
• How Far $100 Goes at the Grocery Store After Five Years of Food Inflation. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Economics of American Lotteries. (Economist)
• Microsoft's $100 Billion Generative Artificial Intelligence Splurge Could Send this Stock Soaring. (MotleyFool)
• There are Almost 10,000 Satellites Orbiting Earth—And That's Creating a Booming Space Economy. (FastCompany)

 

 

The Evolution of Michael Jackson

This lighthearted post has something to do with artificial ...  but nothing to do with artificial intelligence.

While doing my weekly reading and web browsing (which is how I pick those links you probably think an algorithm selects), I happened upon a post about Michael Jackson on Twitter (now called X), and I enjoyed it (or at least was drawn to click and watch it). 

I grew up a huge Michael Jackson fan. As a kid, I watched the Jackson 5 Saturday morning cartoon show. His albums were the soundtrack to my college years. Later, my first wife and I saw him in concert several times. We shared that love with our youngest son, Zach. 

It's funny to look back on, but Zach used to dance to Michael Jackson's songs on stage at his Elementary School talent shows or at random restaurants. There was no choreography ... but lots of movement. I still smile when I think about it. 

You might smile (or shake your head) while watching this short video chronicling the evolution of  Michael Jackson's face changes from birth to death. 

 

via MikeBeast

It's a staggering difference. I won't pretend to know what led him to make the changes, but they're substantial. 

That being said, his music is both timely and timeless - which is very rare. He managed to make music in each era that fit in with the times but still felt very Michael Jackson. 

 

via MikeBeast

 

Gone too soon!

March Is Always Madness ...

March Madness is in full swing and will have the world's attention for a few more days.  As you can guess, almost no one has a perfect bracket anymore.  Yale beat Auburn, James Madison beat Wisconsin, Michigan State beat Mississippi State, and by the end of day 1, only 2,000 brackets remained intact.  That's .008% of all brackets submitted. 

Before 24/7 sports channels, people watched the weekly show "The Wide World of Sports."  Its opening theme promised "The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat!" and "The human drama of athletic competition." That defines March Madness.

The holy grail is mighty elusive in March Madness (as in most things).  For example, the odds of getting the perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (2.4 trillion based on a Duke Mathematician's formula that takes into account rank).  It's easier to win back-to-back lotteries than picking a perfect bracket.  Nonetheless, I bet you felt pretty good when you filled out your bracket.

 

via Duke University

Here's some more crazy March Madness Stats: 

• 80 million tournament brackets were completed
• Companies expect $4 Billion of corporate losses due to employees tracking games
• The highest-paid NCAA coach, Kansas's Bill Self, makes a salary of $9.6 million
• In 2018, it was estimated that March Madness generated $10 Billion in gambling (twice as much as the Super Bowl)

 

Feeding the Madness

"Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." - Phil Jackson

In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world.  None of them had the same success even a year later.

Finding an edge is hard - Maintaining an edge is even harder.

That's not to say there aren't edges to be found. 

Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets.  Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models.  You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision.  That makes you feel powerful.  But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray. 

The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading.  As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't.  We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset. 

You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.

In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses. 

The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased.  Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer.  We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction. 

Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint.  People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities.  It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found. 

In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.

Can machine learning also help in March Madness?

“The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting - that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” - Tom Griffiths

The data is there.  Over 100,000 NCAA regular-season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season.  There are plenty of questions to be asked about that data that may add an extra edge. 

That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success.  It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports - hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds. 

Two lessons can be learned from this:

1. People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
2. Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems.

Something to think about.

 

Feeding the Madness

"Not only is there more to life than basketball, there's a lot more to basketball than basketball." - Phil Jackson

In 2017, I highlighted three people who were (semi) successful at predicting March Madness: a 13-year-old who used a mix of guesswork and preferences, a 47-year-old English woman who used algorithms and data science (despite not knowing the game), and a 70-year-old bookie who had his finger on the pulse of the betting world.  None of them had the same success even a year later.

Finding an edge is hard - Maintaining an edge is even harder.

That's not to say there aren't edges to be found. 

Bracket-choosing mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets.  Some people use gut feelings, some base their decisions on current and historical performance, and some use predictive models.  You've got different inputs, weights, and miscellaneous factors influencing your decision.  That makes you feel powerful.  But knowing the history, their ranks, etc., can help make an educated guess, and they can also lead you astray. 

The allure of March Madness is the same as gambling or trading.  As sports fans, it's easy to believe we know something the layman doesn't.  We want the bragging rights of that sleeper pick, of our alma mater winning, of the big upset. 

You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or musical-loving co-worker.

In reality, several of the highest-ranked brackets every year are guesses. 

The commonality in all decisions is that we are biased.  Bias is inherent to the process because there isn't a clear-cut answer.  We don't know who will win or what makes a perfect prediction. 

Think about it from a market efficiency standpoint.  People make decisions based on many factors — sometimes irrational ones — which can create inefficiencies and complexities.  It can be hard to find those inefficiencies and capitalize on them, but they're there to be found. 

In trading, AI and advanced math help remove biases and identify inefficiencies humans miss.

Can machine learning also help in March Madness?

“The greater the uncertainty, the bigger the gap between what you can measure and what matters, the more you should watch out for overfitting - that is, the more you should prefer simplicity” - Tom Griffiths

The data is there.  Over 100,000 NCAA regular-season games were played over the last 25+ years, and we generally have plenty of statistics about the teams for each season.  There are plenty of questions to be asked about that data that may add an extra edge. 

That being said, people have tried before with mediocre success.  It's hard to overcome the intangibles of sports - hustle, the crowd, momentum - and it's hard to overcome 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds. 

Two lessons can be learned from this:

1. People aren't as good at prediction as they predict they are.
2. Machine Learning isn't a one-size-fits-all answer to all your problems.

Something to think about.

The First Neuralink Patient's #1 Priority

Neuralink received approval for human trials of its PRIME Brain-Computer Interface in September 2023.

In January, Elon took to Twitter and announced that the first human recipient had received an implant and was showing promising neuron spike detection. 

Neuralink designed PRIME to record and transmit neural data to interpret brain activity into movement intention. The PRIME Brain-Computer Interface empowers disabled individuals by enabling them to communicate and engage with the world in innovative and impactful ways, such as regaining the ability to speak and interact with others. In the future, advancements in the PRIME Brain-Computer Interface could even assist individuals with spinal cord injuries learn to walk again.

The first patient was 29-year-old Noland Arbaugh, a complete quadriplegic who had lost sensation and suffered paralysis from below the shoulders after sustaining a spinal injury during a diving accident eight years ago.

When we first began receiving updates about him, we were excited to hear that he could use a computer cursor. That was a big step ... and the start of many others. Now, we're being told that he recently used the technology to stay up all night playing a video game called Civilization 6.

https://t.co/OMIeGGjYtG

— Neuralink (@neuralink) March 20, 2024

Similarly, in 2022, a completely paralyzed man used his brand-new brain implant to ask his caregivers for a beer. 

It sounds like a joke, but these are the types of stories that make me optimistic. Both examples highlight a new capability ... but also a deeper purpose, freeing the human to enjoy being human and enhance the quality of their life.

This is a great reminder. Media coverage often focuses on the fear of an increasingly tech-driven world, and what it means for humanity ... but the best uses of technology allow us to be more human. 

What used to be science fiction is becoming reality, and possibilities are becoming inevitabilities. 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 31st, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Gmail Revolutionized Email 20 Years Ago. People Thought It Was Google's April Fool's Day Joke. (APNews)
• 5 Ways AI Will Revolutionize Art, Science and Media — And It's All Happening Right Now. (TomsGuide)
• It's Exactly Nine Years Until the Next U.S. Total Solar Eclipse After April 8. (Forbes)
• Pick a Random Number Between 100. You Probably Chose 37, and There's a Big Reason for That. (Upworthy)
• You May Not Care that the 'Buffett Indicator' is Flashing Red, But It Does Teach a Brilliant Lesson in Leadership and Success. (Inc)

 

Trading Links:

• The Richest Country in the World is Not the US. (24/7 Wall St)
• The Most Important Concept in Finance. (AWealthOfCommonSense)
• This Staggering Visualization Shows the True Power of Elon Musk. (FastCompany)
• Generative AI 'FOMO' is Driving Tech Heavyweights to Invest Billions of Dollars in Startups. (CNBC)
• Report: Microsoft to Build ‘Stargate' Supercomputer With Millions of Chips for OpenAI.(SiliconAngle)

The Jobs Most Impacted By AI

As we talk about the proliferation of AI, it's probably helpful to see where it's predicted to have the most impact. 

via visualcapitalist

These results come from a World Economic Forum report. 

In context, large impact refers to full automation or significant alteration. Small impact refers to less disruptive changes. 

IT and finance have the highest share of tasks expected to be "largely" impacted by AI ... which is unsurprising. 

We've also already seen the impact of LLM and generative AI on customer service and customer care. As these tools improve, more cases will be able to be fully handled by AI. 

This chart isn't meant to make you feel afraid that your industry will be automated—it's meant to help you understand what tasks you should consider automating.