Capitalogix

World Markets Update

Here is a summary of world market performance from Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives.

The global rally in equities continued last week, but at a subdued pace.  A benchmark 'gang of eight' group of global indices posted an average gain of 0.85% (well off the 3.86% average of the previous week). Moreover, that average included a 4.30% surge in Japan's Nikkei (which follows its 6.49% thrust the previous week).

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes.  The average for each week also is included to evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility.

 

 

A Closer Look at the Year-to-Date Performance

 

Here is an overlay of the eight illustrating their comparative performance so far in 2016.

 

 

 

Here is a table of the 2016 performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes.

The top performing S&P 500 and the UK's FTSE 100 are the only two indexes with year-to-date gains, unchanged from last week.

China's Shanghai Composite earned the dubious distinction of biggest loser last week, supplanting the soaring Nikkei in the basement. After this week's loss, it has fallen deeper into the YTD red.

 
All the indexes are calculated in their local currencies.

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

This photo is corny, and so is the slogan: Success comes in cans – not cannots.

I took the photo in a friend's office.  Yet, what isn't corny is that they had the intent and the idea, then took the time and effort to print the labels to re-cover pinto bean cans.

It grew on me to the point that I asked for one of them ... and it is now in my office.  

The power isn't just in the message.  It's in what you make it mean.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Malcolm Gladwell: This Is How You Develop True Expertise. (Inc)
• As A.I. Gets Smarter, Humans Need to Stop Being Sore Losers. (DigitalTrends)
• Cuba's Charming, Tragic Time Warp. (USAToday)
• Why the Future is Going to Disappoint Us. (Washington Post)
• Are You Ready For Man-Made Meat? (The Economist)

 

Trading Links:

• Jim Rogers: There's a 100% Probability of a U.S. Recession Within a Year. (Bloomberg)
• The Problem with Average. (The Irrelevant  Investor)
• Technology is Disrupting Everything. (TechCrunch)
• Who are the Richest Tech Leaders & What are They Doing with Their Money? (Particle)
• You've Earned a Fortune in Airline Miles, Here are the Economics of Exactly How to Spend Them. (Quartz)

Two Minutes with Sean Stephenson [video]

I got a chance to spend time with Sean Stephenson this week.

 

 

He has overcome a lot ... and stands tall as an example.

Here is a video that he made recently that reached over 60 million people.

 

 

via YouTube.

Sean says things go viral based on the U-TURN formula .... meaning, the message is: unique, timeless, unbelievable, relatable, nice, and short.

For more from Sean, here are links to his website and Facebook page.

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back - Still Leads to Progress

Here is a photo of the Capitalogix team noting a successful test release.

 

 

When you play a big enough game ... the journey is long ... and it can't just about the final result. 

On a day-to-day basis, it is about sucking less, measuring progress, moving forward ... and remembering to celebrate along the way.

Remember, the tip of the iceberg is only part of the story.

  

The Iceberg Illusion by Sylvia Duckworth, (Flickr CC license).

 

The Iceberg Illusion reminds us that when you see a company killing it - most of the time, all we got to see was the success part at the top, not the struggles and failures it took to get there.

Here's to the focus, learning, resilience, and patience that got us here!

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Clinton versus Sanders:  Objects in the rear-view mirror may be closer than you'd expect.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The iPhone's Technology is Indistinguishable from Magic - That's Now a Problem. (MO)
• Read This If You Use Your Smartphone To Avoid Reality. (Huffington Post)
• What Do Chimp ‘Temples’ Tell Us About the Evolution of Religion? (New Scientist)
• Bottom Class: America’s Airlines Are Introducing a Class Below Economy. (Economist)
• Delta's President Says He Doesn't Want People to Use Miles to Fly Free Anymore. (VFTW)

 

Trading Links:

• You've Been Warned: This is a Bear Market Rally. (Doug Kass)
• This Ex-Apple Executive Got Hired to Run the Word's Largest Hedge Fund. (Fortune)
• 3 Reasons Saudi Arabia Freaking Out about Cash. (Business Insider)
• The Fed's "Dots" - Downgraded Economic Outlook Implies Fewer Rate Hikes. (ZH)
• President Trump as 'Big a Risk' to the Economy as Jihadi Terrorism. (Mashable)

There's No Crying In Trading

As a fund manager, I am always looking for ways to eliminate emotions (like fear and greed).  

But as a father whose son just got married, the equation was different.

One of my son's instructions to the "officiant" was to make me cry.  I made it through the Ceremony; then, I got a chance to say a few words at the Wedding Reception.  Here they are ...

 

 

via YouTube.

The words "I love you" are powerful.  Most people consider it an expression of emotion.  It can also be a promise ...

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Behind the Scenes: How the FBI Solved It's iPhone Problem.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Dan Sullivan Defines Unique Ability. (Video)
• Why Creating a To-Do List Is Derailing Your Success. (FastCompany)
• Find Out How Much You’ve Spent on Amazon Since Opening Your Account. (LH)
• This Is Why Women Live Longer Than Men. (Brightside)
• All Politicians Lie. Some Lie More Than Others. Here is a Comparison. (NYT)

 

Trading Links:

• Is the Stock Market Still Rigged? (Time)
• JPMorgan Has New Theory About What Really Caused the Flash Rally. (Bloomberg)
• Wall Street Banks are Using Artificial Intelligence to Monitor Traders. (BizInsider)
• Islam in Europe: Perception and Reality. (Economist)
• Expect More Money Printing. (ValueWalk)

Cruz: ‘Donald Trump May Be a Rat - But I Have No Desire to Copulate With Him’

Emotion is a funny thing.  You know it isn't good in trading.  Apparently, it isn't good for politicians either.

Recently, Sen. Ted Cruz has been aggressively denying stories of alleged past sex scandals, calling them a “tabloid smear” and the fruit of Trump operative Roger Stone‘s dirty tricks.

After getting 'worked up', he is quoted as saying: “Donald Trump may be a rat, but I have no desire to copulate with him.”

 

Don't believe it ... Check out the 1-minute mark of the following video.

 
 
 

via YouTube.

 

How High Is High - Bay Area Home Prices by Transit Stop

I was just in a San Francisco restaurant for a lunch meeting.  We had a burger and a salad - the bill came to $60.  It was a good burger ... but come on!

Likewise, it's no secret, Bay Area home prices are among the highest in the country.

Below is a chart that shows how those prices vary depending on which Caltrain stop a home is near.  To do this, Estately Real Estate Search analyzed the last six months of home sales for houses, townhouses, and condos that were within a one-mile radius of each transit stop, then broke them down by price per square foot.

Take a look:

 

 

At an average of $1,630 per square foot, Caltrain's California Avenue stop, in Palo Alto, is the Bay Area's most expensive transit stop based on nearby home prices.

So, do you feel better about real estate prices in your area?

 

Related articles

How Much House Will a Million Dollars Buy In Your City?

The New "Middle Class" - Making $250,000 A Year In Palo Alto Qualifies For Housing Subsidies

Underlying Rotation Doesn't Support a Continuation of the S&P 500's Rally

Tom Bowley posted some analysis that caught my attention.  He used sector rotation analysis to question the sustainability of the current market rally.

Basically, the chart below shows red shaded areas to highlight warning signs that appeared at the end of the prior bull market in 2007 and also warned of the 2011 correction.  

Currently, the S&P 500 is in the midst of a very solid rally off the February 11th bottom.  The rally in February was supported by rotation to "risk on" areas of the market.  

The March rally, however, has lost its luster in terms of relative ratios as money has turned more cautious.  

It doesn't mean we can't go higher, but it perhaps lowers the odds a little.  

Take a look at the chart:

 

Tom Bowley via StockCharts.

 

The strongest S&P 500 rallies have occurred during those green shaded areas when money has rotated to aggressive areas.  

 

When the S&P 500 rallies and those relative ratios drop, it tends to mark significant market tops.