Weekly Commentary Charts through August 29, 2008

Another week of big swings in thinly-traded markets.  There is a trading range in the S&P 500 where the bears defend the top (1295) and the bulls defend the bottom (1260). So far, no one is winning. Let's see which way things break; though a short-term move down here wouldn't surprise me.

Historical patterns show a year-end rally typically starts in late September or early October. The 4-year Presidential cycle pattern also favors a year-end rally.

Here are a few of the posts I found interesting this week:

• Lehman in urgent talks to secure a capital injection before earnings call (UK Telegraph)
• Worker Confidence sinks to levels of last recession (WSJ)
• Nightmare on Wall Street: Why the Credit Crisis has lasted so long? (Economist)
• Candidates on the Credit Crisis (Dash of Insight)
• Does history favor Democrats' economic plan? (NYTimes)
• Victor Niederhoffer on why the Markets continue to surprise him (Daily Speculations)
• A positive sign for markets: 64% of stocks above their 50-day averages (Bespoke)
• Is the "Bearish Crescendo" a contrarian sign of a market Bottom? (Shaeffers)
• Ten factors that contribute to Market Mood Swings (Seeking Alpha)
• To make a stock "pop" - Innovate (NYTimes)

And, a little bit extra:

• Great Photos from Beijing Olympics (Boston Globe, LA Times, Time, FT,The Star, S.I.)
• The Business of College Football is probably Bigger than you think (Forbes)
• Does it Matter that Internet Traffic is beginning to bypass the US? (NYTimes)
• Interesting comparison of housing market price declines in various cities (Bespoke)
• Obama's acceptance speech for Democratic Presidential Nomination (Politico, Many Eyes)
• Air-Ball: Game Ball Delivered by Parachute; Skydivers land in Wrong Stadium (Inquirer)
• Microsoft releases beta of a major new version of Internet Explorer (WSJ, Microsoft)