Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 10th, 2021

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 5 Key Ways Zoom is Shifting From Merely a Product to a Dominant Platform. (MotleyFool)
• You Can Now Communicate With William Shatner Through Interactive AI. (CBR)
• What Makes Us Human? The Answer May Be Found In Overlooked DNA. (EurasiaReview)
• Why China Sends Warplanes Into Taiwan's Airspace But Doesn't Attack Analysis. (EurasiaReview)
• Russia Tells Its Space Reporters to Stop Reporting on the Space Program. (ArsTechnica)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) Robots Market to Reach $21.4 Billion By 2026. (Finance)
• Xi Jinping Aims to Rein-In Chinese Capitalism, Hew to Mao's Socialist Vision. (Wall Street Journal)
• Central Bankers are Spooked By Signs that Inflation is Lingering for Longer. (Bloomberg)
• SEC Chief to Wall Street: The Everything Crackdown is Coming. (News)
• DeFi Picks Up the Pace as Alternate Blockchains and NFTs Boom. (CoinTelegraph)

 

 

Top Influencers (By Platform)

When you ask children what they want to be, many likely say YouTuber, Influencer, or some other variant of that theme.

Influence is a complicated thing. From an abstract perspective, it's the ability to affect someone else's behavior. A high schooler can influence their classmates. As entrepreneurs, we can influence our employees, our industry, and more. You can have immense influence over a small number of people or a little bit of influence over many people - both still count as "influence."

But, in this case, many of the most popular influencers aren't famous for changing the world; they are celebrities or just famous for being famous.

Below is a chart of the top 50 "influencers" by social media platform. 

 

via visualcapitalist

In the digital age, it's worth acknowledging social reach as power. People with a large platform have the opportunity to exert enormous influence - and it's why you often see the spread of misinformation reach far, fast. 

It would be interesting to see how many of these people use their platforms to be a beacon to their followers (rather than a beacon to attract followers).

It would also be interesting to see how much (or little) engagement many of these "influencers" actually have with their followers (and how that level of engagement relates to the growth or decay of their followings). 

While I assume that the readers of this post aren't in the business of being "Influencers,"  Most of us recognize the value of influence – and getting more of it.

As a result, it is probably worth thinking about influence as an asset.  And now is time to think strategically about how to grow and use that asset better. 

Remembering 9/11 - 20 Years Later

On September 11, 2001, 19 extremist Al Qaeda militants hijacked four airliners and carried out suicide attacks against targets in the United States. Nearly 3000 people were killed during the attacks.

Do you remember where you were when it happened?

For most Americans, it’s easy. That moment – and its ripples – are imprinted on our minds. For my son, Zach, it was in his 3rd-grade class. They wheeled in a TV on a cart for the students to watch. One of his classmate’s uncles was killed in the attack.

A colleague of mine was supposed to be in the tower that day but rescheduled a meeting for the following day – narrowly missing it.

And now 20 years have passed. So much has changed. So much has stayed the same. We’ve analyzed the events of that morning a thousand ways from different vantage points ... and it’s still impossible to fully grasp the weight of the event.

It’s crazy to imagine that there are now full-fledged adults who have no memory of it.

And with that, Visual Capitalist put together a great chronology of the event.

As we honor those that gave their lives – or had them taken from them – it’s a powerful reminder.

Click the image to enlarge.

via visualcapitalist

The Pentagon has been repaired and we have a new World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan – but the wounds of that day still remain.

Even more so for the actual first responders. With that, I’ll leave you with a powerful video from Jon Stewart, fighting for those first responders.

 

 

Camp Kotok 2021

Each year I look forward to Camp Kotok, or as I like to call it Economists in Nature. It's basically 5 days of canoeing, fishing, and dining with economists, wealth managers, traders, investors and more. 

One of few chances for people from these backgrounds to come together and talk about the world, big trends, investing, economics, politics, and more ... in an open and safe forum. The event goes by the Chatham House Rule - which basically means you can share the information you receive, but not who said it. 

This year we talked about everything from China, digital currencies, the pandemic, and the state of markets. 

Interestingly, for all the takeaways I could focus on, the main takeaway was uncertainty. 

For all the intelligent and "in-the-know" people in the room, very few people had clear opinions of what was going to happen. There were too many variables at play, and while they posited a lot of potential paths, it feels like the general census was we're at a crossroads with many potential futures in front of us. 

Despite the general uncertainty in the room, it wasn't fear-laden. The general mood was optimistic, and for the most part, everyone sees paths toward economic success post-COVID.

With that said, when and what "post-COVID" means is another issue.

One of the other key discussions that came up often was the new generation of workers and their changing relationship with work. It's plain to see the rate of quitting is higher, that wages are rising, and it's getting hard to fill minimum wage jobs. It's hard to get employees back in an office space, and many are willing to take pay cuts or switch to other companies to stay at home. 

The long-term impact on our economy (and our culture) is yet to be seen.

We live in interesting times. 

As a bonus, here's an interview I shot at Camp Kotok in 2018 with Bob Eisenbeis,  Cumberland Advisors' Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist.  Check it out.  

 

Cumberland Advisors via YouTube

Elon Musk and His Self Driving Cars

While self-driving cars seem like a relatively new invention, the reality is that the earliest autonomous self-driving cars existed in the early 1980s (non-autonomous versions and semi-workable experiments have existed since the 1920s). 

Luckily, the standards and approach have gotten much better since then, and we continue to make massive strides. Recently, Elon Musk stated that he was confident that level 5 self-driving cars would exist by the end of this year. That would mean the need for a steering wheel or a driver's seat would be next to 0 - a luxury even. 

 

via Stein Law

According to many AI experts, this is exciting because level 5 autonomy is not just difficult - it's near impossible. 

Think of it from a human perspective. When we're driving, many minute decisions happen instantaneously and without much trouble. But some of those decisions are "subjective" and seemingly novel. We know the answer because we intuit the answer - not because it's following any specific rule. 

For a car to reach level 5 autonomy, it would have to be pre-trained for essentially every possible situation they could encounter - no matter how rare. 

Elon Musk is famous for his potentially antagonizing beliefs and predilection for extreme statements ... but will Tesla somehow solve these problems?

Is AI about to pass another hurdle already?

It's exciting stuff! As someone that hates long drives, I'm certainly ready for it. I can also envision a future where the norm is autonomous driving, and individuals that want the right to drive their cars themselves will have to pass extra tests, pay extra fees, and warn the autonomous cars that it's a human at the wheel. 

World Happiness Levels in 2021

Happiness is a complex concept comprised of positive emotions, lack of negative emotions, comfort, freedom, wealth, and more. 

Regardless of how hard it is to quantify ... humans strive for it.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report does a good job with its annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

via World Health Report

In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. 

As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there was a significant increase in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed. Moreover, the decline in mental health was higher in groups that already had mental health problems - women, young people, and poorer people. 

What's interesting about this is the resilience and bounce-back seen within the data. Considering the amount of disruption to households this past year, it's remarkable how stable the averages for countries have been. 

Ultimately, globally, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

Despite the changes in emotions in 2020, overall life satisfaction rebounded quickly after March of 2020. 

via Visual Capitalist

While there was a decrease in overall happiness, the relative balance in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or set point of happiness. I'm always impressed by what people can get used to, and how you can find pockets of joy in even the hardest times ... or how people with everything they could ever ask for can still feel profound unhappiness. 

It's oddly beautiful and a great reminder that happiness comes from within. Obviously, our environment and circumstances play a part. It's easier to be content with a roof over your head and a stable job. But, after a certain point, it's on us to create our realities. 

Onwards!

What Comes Next With Sébastien Toutant

The opening ceremonies for the Tokyo Olympics started on Friday. 

While the Olympics are more controversial this year than normal, I think most of us can appreciate watching the best athletes performing at their peak. We can also laugh at the cardboard "anti-sex" beds they put in the Olympic Village.

With that, I thought I'd bring back a video I shot with Sébastien Toutant who won a gold medal at the most recent winter Olympics. I met Sébastien while leaving an F1 race in Montréal. I had a chance to talk to him about what makes him tick and where he sees his future.

It's a great case study in self-actualization after you've reached the top of your proverbial mountain top. 

There are multiple factors at work in high performance and in keeping yourself passionate and motivated. 

1. Find Your Unique Ability

"Snowboarding is my passion. I was doing it every day ... Over time, It's my job, but it's still my passion. Every time I strap in on my board, I love it. You have to balance it. You have to keep the fun alive." 

Unique Ability is where there's superior skill and it gives you energy, instead of taking energy. When you have to grind every day to become the best, and it's taking energy away from you, you're not going to stick with it. 

When it lights you up, there's no limit to the hours or years you can commit to it. 

2. Maintain Good Habits and Build New Skills 

"Keep Snowboarding. Keep Training. Keep Trying New Tricks.  The sport is moving so much, so you always have to improve your riding and invent new tricks. Push the sport to the next level." 

Success is a war of attrition. You gain it every day through consistent habits and hard work. It's easy to talk the talk, but it's harder to set yourself up for success. Structure your life, and your environment in a way that makes success the default.

3. Stay Focused on the Future

"You have to make sacrifices to make it there. But it's worth it."

At my office, we practice the idea of "Measure Backwards, Plan Forwards". 

To us that means it's important to take time to appreciate how far you've come ... yet, it's also important to stay focused on what you can still accomplish. 

Your edge is decaying faster than ever before. Competition is growing not just from your competitors but from technology as well.  Stay focused on next. 

By the way, there is one other lesson this encounter reminded me about – opportunity is all around you ... waiting for you to notice and act!  It would have been easy for me to filter out the "kid" standing behind me in a line after an event.  Luck favors the prepared.  Stay focused on what you want and keep your eyes, ears, and mind open for ways to get it!

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 5th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• A New Study Reveals Which US City Has the Worst Traffic, and it is No Longer Los Angeles. (USAToday)
• 30 Pics Showing How Unbearable the Heat is In Part of the US and Canada Right Now.  (BoredPanda)
• The Court Decision Freeing Bill Cosby, Explained as Best We Can. (Vox)
• McDonald's is Replacing Human Drive-thru Attendants With AI. (BigThink)
• Joey Chestnut Wins 14th Nathan's Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest with Record 76 Franks. (USAToday)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Jeff Bezos Officially Retires with Twice as Much Money as the Entire British Monarchy. (Unilad)
• 130 Countries Agree to Global Minimum Corporate Tax Rate. (Axios)
• EXPLAINER: 5 Key Takeaways from the June Jobs Report. (APNews)
• Manhattan Real Estate Prices Reach New Record as Buying 'Frenzy' Takes Hold. (CNBC)
• Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and Other Top Investors are Predicting an Epic Market Crash. Here are Their Gravest Warnings So Far. (Markets)

 

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 27th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why is Cognitive Flexibility Important and How Can You Improve It? (WEForum)
• The Perfect Number of Hours to Work Every Day? Five. (Wired)
• Artist Sells Invisible Sculpture for Over $18K. (NYPost)
• Check Out the Rotation of the Earth from a Whole New Perspective. (Flipboard)
• CRISPR Injected into the Blood Treats a Genetic Disease for First Time. (ScienceMag)

 

 

Trading Links:

• The Global IPO Market Has Never Been Hotter Than It is Right Now. (Bloomberg)
• Banks Will Double Their Capital Return After Successful Stress Test, No. 1 Analyst Mayo Says. (CNBC)
• Hotels and Restaurants' Rebound Summer Held Back by Shortages of Everything. (Wall Street Journal)
• Feds Accelerating Crypto World Crackdown. (FoxBusiness)
• Virgin Galactic Gets Official Clearance to Start Flying Paying Customers to Space. (Gizmodo)

 

A Look At Trade Blocs

The Global Economy is more complex than I could ever explain in a single blog post. But one of the simplest ideas to understand is that trade and commerce are the foundation for the Global Economy. 

Trade between states, nations, and continents is how you end up with innovation, global increases in prosperity, and resistance to the consequences of famine, natural disasters, and even pandemics. 

But, the wants and power dynamics of these different entities can get complicated. There are many intergovernmental trade barriers.

That's where trade blocs come in ... Two you likely recognize would be NAFTA (now USMCA) and the EU.

Trade blocs are meant to reduce trade barriers between participating entities but are sometimes controversial for their potential consequences. For example, they can result in rival groups, overly benefit certain countries, and potentially place undue pressure on certain exports. 

In late 2020, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed and creates the largest trade bloc in history - accounting for over 30% of global GDP and population. Visual Capitalist put together an infographic about RCEP's formation and likely implications. 

 

via visualcapitalist

The agreement isn't fully ratified (it is set to be fully launched by early 2022). Regardless, it will impact the global stage and create approximately $209B of income increase per year.

Despite all the rules and benefits that RCEP will have for its 15 nations, it doesn't contain any provisions for labor unions, environmental protection, or government subsidies. 

As China continues to race against America to be the largest global superpower, the RCEP is a powerful tool in its arsenal.