Today was Super Bowl Sunday 2025. As a fan, I found myself rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles today. But at times, I was rooting for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out of respect for the talent and the incredible record they’ve compiled.
Meanwhile, it also made me think about my home team, the Dallas Cowboys, and how long it’s been since we’ve had any real post-season success.
They’ve mastered winning in the business sense, even when they struggle on the field.
Jerry Jones does a lot right in building his “Disney Ride.” However, this post will focus more on what the coaches and players do to win.
Business Lessons From the NFL
I’m regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.
Football is something I used to love to play. And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.
Some lessons relate to teamwork, while others relate to coaching or management.
Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... but I still learn from watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star.
Think about it ... even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart listing the first, second, and third choices to fill specific roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in ways that most businesses don’t.
The picture below is of my brother’s high school team way back in 1989. While lots have changed since then, much of what we will discuss in this post remains timeless.
Losing to an 8th Grade Team
The scary truth is that most businesses are less prepared for their challenges than an 8th-grade football team. That might sound disrespectful – but if you think about it ... it’s pretty accurate. Here is a short video highlighting what many businesses could learn from observing how organized sports teams operate, particularly in setting goals and effectively preparing for challenges.
If you are skimming, here is a quick summary of the key points in the video.
Organization and Preparation
Structure: Football teams have a clear hierarchy, including a head coach, assistant coaches, and trainers.
Practice: Teams engage in regular practice sessions to prepare for games, emphasizing the importance of training.
Game Plan: They develop strategies and a game plan before facing opponents, including watching game films to understand their competition.
Dynamic Strategy
Adaptability: Teams adjust their strategies based on the game’s flow, recognizing whether they are on offense or defense.
Audibles: Just as a football team may call an audible when faced with unexpected defensive setups, businesses should adapt their strategies in real time.
Learning From Experience
Post-Game Analysis: Coaches review game films to identify what worked and what didn’t, learning from past experiences to improve future performance.
Continuous Improvement: Ongoing training is crucial in businesses, similar to how football players receive coaching during practice to enhance their skills.
Importance of Coaching
Role of Coaches: Coaching is crucial for developing talent and focusing on achieving defined goals.
Encouragement of Growth: Active coaching leads to better outcomes and overall improvement.
A Deeper Look Into the Lessons
There is immense value in the structured coaching and preparation that sports teams exemplify. Here are some thoughts to help businesses adopt similar principles that foster teamwork, adaptability, and continuous improvement.
Football teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week’s opponent, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.
The team thinks of itself as a team. They expect to practice. And they get coached.
In addition, there is a playbook for both offense and defense. And they watch game films to review what went right ... and what they can learn and use later.
Contrast that with many businesses. Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together.
The amount of thought and preparation that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business.
What about when you get to the highest level? If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a typical business, what about the businesses that are killing it? That would be similar to an NFL team.
How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right.
Each time I’ve watched a practice session, I’ve come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.
During practice, there’s a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, each with a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There’s a rhythm, even to the breaks.
Every minute is scripted. There’s a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.
They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter periods than you’d guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a player’s attention span. They move from drill to drill, working not just on plays but also on skill sets (where are you looking, which foot you plant, how to best use your hands, etc.).
They use advanced technology to get an edge (including player geolocation monitoring, biometric tracking, medical recovery devices, robotic tackling dummies, and virtual reality headsets).
They don’t just film games; they film the practices ... and each player’s individual drills. Coaches and players get a personalized cut on their tablets when they leave. It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement. Everything has the potential to be a lesson.
Beyond The Snap
The focus is not just on the players and the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch videos of their opponent to understand tendencies and mentally prepare for what will happen.
During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been expected, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems.
After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.
Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance and look to others for guidance.
Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.
Challenge accepted.
And, just for fun, here’s a video of me doing a cartwheel after a Dallas Cowboys win.
The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market, and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, for those who care more about markets than football, you’d be rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles.
There is one big caveat (among lots of others) ... it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that’s where they got their start.
If you accept that, the Super Bowl Indicator has about a 68% success rate. Sounds good, right?
Come on ... you know better.
Here are some other “fun” stock market indicators:
Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have nothing in common. We also probably intuitively understand correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order, and look for signs that make markets seem slightly more predictable.
The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful.
Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator.
More people than you would hope (or guess) attempt to forecast the market based on gut instinct, ancient wisdom, or prayers.
While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies.
As goofy as it sounds, some of these “far-fetched” theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience.
To get a better perspective, here is a thought experiment to try.
What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 in any given year?
... Then, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?
The answer is that, on average, less than 33% of active managers beat the S&P in any given year. Last year, 43% beat the Index. Even more interesting is that over a 15-year period, the numbers drop much further. Depending on who is measured, only 12% of active managers and about 5% of U.S. Equity Funds beat the S&P over a 15-year period.
Here are a couple of things to consider when you evaluate those statistics. First, market statistics represent predominantly bull market periods (and underperformance tends to spike during bear markets). Second, the statistics mentioned were for professional traders and funds (and most retail traders do considerably worse than that). Third, and perhaps most importantly, the implication is that professional traders’ “intelligent” choices often turn out worse than chance. That means something they’re doing is hurting performance (rather than helping it).
Every now and then, a moment comes along that forces everyone to stop and rethink what they thought they knew. DeepSeek—a relatively unknown AI startup—just delivered one of those moments.
Imagine this: last week, a company most people had never heard of claimed to have built a cutting-edge AI model for just $5.6 million – and they made it open source. Meanwhile, industry giants like Meta, Google, and OpenAI spend hundreds of millions—sometimes billions—on similar efforts. The implications are massive, and investors felt it immediately.
Within hours, Nvidia’s stock price plunged 16.86%, wiping out over $600 billion in market value. Other AI-heavy stocks followed suit. The reaction? Panic, speculation, and a flood of questions:
Have we been overpaying for AI development?
Is brute-force scaling the wrong path?
What does this mean for the balance of power in the AI world?
What’s happening here isn’t just a new startup making waves. It’s a fundamental shift in how AI is built—and it could change the competitive landscape for years to come.
What makes DeepSeek different?
To me, the main point is that, until recently, AI companies have been treating LLMs like an arms race—the more GPUs, the better. That’s part of why LLMs have become so expensive. Meanwhile, DeepSeek took an efficiency-first approach that reduced computational waste and more efficiently used GPU resources.
This type of disruption will become increasingly frequent across all industries. Exponential technologies are accelerating innovation cycles and opening unexpected development paths. While these discontinuous innovations may seem like isolated surprises, they’re becoming a fundamental part of the competitive landscape. The key isn’t to react to each disruption individually - it’s to develop better strategies for operating in this rapidly evolving environment.
In this case, Deepseek’s breakthrough wasn’t about doing more of what its competitors were good at. Instead, they thought of something else they could do to well to compete. Their breakthrough wasn’t about power ... it was about perspective. It is a good reminder and blueprint to study.
Some think the key message is that businesses no longer need to stock up on Nvidia’s best GPUs to have an advantage. Even if that is true, it begs the question: Will the demand for high-end GPUs decline if AI processing needs start shrinking? Asked another way, if other AI companies also use efficiency-first architecture, will Nvidia’s dominance weaken?
From my perspective, the answer is that Nvidia will continue to grow. I’m excited about a world where the companies that can afford to spend the most money don’t necessarily win. Increased accessibility to high-performing AI models means more entrepreneurs can join the space and create new businesses with novel approaches. Ultimately, many more businesses will build AI into their infrastructure, and chip sales will continue to expand.
AI isn’t just about computing power anymore – it’s about creativity and utility, too. Constraints have always bred innovation, and as companies begin to do more with less, I think you’ll see a shift in the balance of power.
What about America and data privacy?
Despite my excitement about the AI boom, there are valid privacy fears. When I discussed TikTok a few weeks ago, it was clear that the U.S. was taking a stronger stand on protecting its citizens from foreign interference. DeepSeek presents challenges.
To start, it does censor content deemed sensitive by the Chinese government – that also means that particular historical and political topics are met with ambiguous or sanitized responses.
It collects all of your user inputs, any personal information you share, and technical details like your keystroke patterns. They do explicitly tell you this in their Terms of Service. The data is stored in China, raising concerns about legal oversight and privacy laws.
You likely have very little recourse if your data is accessed by or shared with external entities.
My Thoughts
First, DeepSeek is undoubtedly exciting. Even if they’ve embellished their story, the result is impressive. However, it’s also not the end of Nvidia or American-based AI companies.
Knowing when to sprint and when to jog is an important skill.
AI is shaping our digital world, and DeepSeek is a massive force function in the industry. It is ultimately a good thing for AI (yes, even the Chinese competition).
However, you should probably ask yourself if the benefits of using Deepseek outweigh the risks.
When I coach people on using generative AI, I’ve always urged caution about sharing your sensitive IP with publicly hosted GPTs. Even with OpenAI or Meta, there are clear risks.
It’s also clear that China isn’t the only entity trying to track you or better use your data. As a reminder, if you don’t know how someone is making money off a product … you’re the product. They’re commoditizing you and your data.
That being said, It’s important to be proactive, and it seems to become even more important every week. The landscape is shifting so quickly.
Even so, you have time.
Being proactive also means being smart. As a user of the tools, you don’t need to switch to DeepSeek. Even as a non-tech entrepreneur, now is the time to explore the AI uses that excite you, not to force big leaps.
If you’re like me and are an entrepreneur in the space, you should certainly take the lessons from DeepSeek and think about how to apply these ideas in your ecosystem.
But my #1 lesson for AI adoption is the same as my #1 lesson for building any habit: Start small - and start in a way that gives you energy.
Humans are good at seeing big changes on the horizon but notoriously bad at predicting what those changes will be.
The goal isn’t to be so fast that you beat everyone else … just to be fast enough not to be left behind.
The older I get, the faster time flies, and the more important living with the time I have left becomes.
The idea hit home for the first time following the death of my Dad in 1999.
As he approached the end, one more year of living seemed priceless. Yet, at that point, he was older and more infirm than at any other point in his life. To some extent, the scarcity outweighed the quality.
Wouldn't it be better to recognize the importance of living fully earlier?
In other words, the best way to capture and leverage the value of this year is to live it fully now.
That idea inspired my 2014 TEDx talk, "The Time Value Of A Life Worth Living." It was a reflection on my struggle with the practical realities of juggling my work-life balance during a challenging time. It was about a year that brought my Dad's death, the forced sale of my company by venture capitalists, and a divorce (in that order). Luckily, sometimes, life's darkest days bring the greatest gifts … if you are willing to look for them.
In finance, the "time value of money" refers to the principle that the purchasing power of money varies over time (meaning that money today has more purchasing power than money later). This is partly because the value of money at a future point in time might be calculated by accounting for other variables (like interest earned, inflation accrued, etc.).
I realized that a similar calculation applied to life ... or living.
The above video is 13 minutes long. I hope you'll watch it, but if not, I've added some of my favorite excerpts below.
Many people get stuck moving away from pain, and they forget to move toward opportunity.
When you are stuck, a shift in role or perspective can help you find a new path or possibility.
You can decide to stop playing the games you're playing and find a new—better—one.
The difference between good and great is infinitesimal. People who are good take advantage of opportunities ... but people who are great create them.
Many people see opportunities, but few take action. "Life" (the noun) often gets in the way of "living" (the verb).
Everyone has the same 24 hours each day, but some use them better than others. Some build businesses, transform lives, or create art that will last far beyond their lifespan, while others die without ever truly living.
The average life expectancy for men in the U.S. is 76.
How many amazing vacations do you have left? How many jaw-dropping moments? How many fantastic meals? How many Super Bowls?
What about time with your parents or older relatives? It's easy to forget to call or miss an important event because "life happens," but if you realize you may have already used 95% of your in-person time with that person, doesn't it become more special?
The Time Value of Time
In many senses, time is relative.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand this quote from Einstein.
" When you are courting a nice girl, an hour seems like a second. When you sit on a red-hot cinder, a second seems like an hour. That's relativity."
It is about more than perception.
Here is something that highlights the relative value of time.
To understand the value of a year, talk to a student who has failed an important exam.
To understand the value of a month, talk to a mother who has given birth to a baby a month prematurely.
To understand the value of a week, talk to the publisher of a weekly newspaper.
To understand the value of an hour, talk to a couple in love who are separated and want only to be together again.
To understand the value of a minute, talk to someone who has just missed their train or plane flight.
To understand the value of a second, talk to someone who has lost a loved one in an accident.
And to understand the value of a millisecond, talk to someone who won the silver medal at the Olympic Games.
Time waits for no one. So it is important to remember to make the best use of the time you have.
A Change of Pace:
When I jog, the beginning and the end are the hardest for me. After finding the right pace and settling into a comfortable rhythm, most of the run is relatively painless. My mind and body switch to nearly automatic modes, and I have time to think about many things.
Work is similar in many respects. Once a team gets into a rhythm, work and progress become somewhat automatic. Breaking inertia is a challenge – but people recognize that it's a challenge. The more insidious problem is failing to recognize that the work rhythm that's comfortable and produces progress is still a rut. It doesn't stretch and challenge the team to strive for more. Yet, stretching is what drives innovation. Sometimes you need to sprint. Other times you need to jog. Sometimes you need to rest ... but you won't get different results if you continue to do the same things the same way.
The same is true about your perspective.
Changing your pace or perspective can be an incredible catalyst to create or achieve something better ... and to better take advantage of the life you have left.
In my TEDx talk, I mentioned "living like you only have a year left," and recognized how much more "life" we squeezed out of the last part of my Dad's life.
How do you replicate that?
To start, think of some of the activities you do, places you go, and special experiences that make you feel like your best self.
Hitting flow-state and creating something new and exciting;
Taking an amazing vacation and experiencing something completely new;
Having a moment with someone you love that makes you stop and say - Wow!
Making a difference in someone's day or giving back to your community;
Experiencing peace and relaxation;
Feeling pure joy.
It's easy to get lost and take for granted these moments when they happen, but when you think about how much time you have left, they take a whole new meaning.
What would it take for you to get the most out of your life, today? How can you maximize the time you have left? Fill it with the best experiences, activities, and people you can.
To start, think about different time frames:
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a year?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a month?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a week?
What activities could you commit to doing at least once a day?
Make those lists ... it is a simple way to get a better return on the time value of your life.
Business Lessons from the NFL
Today was Super Bowl Sunday 2025. As a fan, I found myself rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles today. But at times, I was rooting for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out of respect for the talent and the incredible record they’ve compiled.
Meanwhile, it also made me think about my home team, the Dallas Cowboys, and how long it’s been since we’ve had any real post-season success.
Obviously, the Jones family has done many things right. According to Forbes, for the ninth straight year, the Dallas Cowboys are the world’s most valuable sports team, worth an estimated $10.1 billion — the first to cross the 11-figure threshold and $1.3 billion beyond their closest competition.
They’ve mastered winning in the business sense, even when they struggle on the field.
Jerry Jones does a lot right in building his “Disney Ride.” However, this post will focus more on what the coaches and players do to win.
Business Lessons From the NFL
I’m regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking I see in football.
Football is something I used to love to play. And it is still something that informs my thoughts and actions.
Some lessons relate to teamwork, while others relate to coaching or management.
Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... but I still learn from watching games – and even more, from watching Dallas Cowboys practices at The Star.
Think about it ... even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart listing the first, second, and third choices to fill specific roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in ways that most businesses don’t.
The picture below is of my brother’s high school team way back in 1989. While lots have changed since then, much of what we will discuss in this post remains timeless.
Losing to an 8th Grade Team
The scary truth is that most businesses are less prepared for their challenges than an 8th-grade football team. That might sound disrespectful – but if you think about it ... it’s pretty accurate. Here is a short video highlighting what many businesses could learn from observing how organized sports teams operate, particularly in setting goals and effectively preparing for challenges.
via YouTube.
If you are skimming, here is a quick summary of the key points in the video.
Organization and Preparation
Dynamic Strategy
Learning From Experience
Importance of Coaching
A Deeper Look Into the Lessons
There is immense value in the structured coaching and preparation that sports teams exemplify. Here are some thoughts to help businesses adopt similar principles that foster teamwork, adaptability, and continuous improvement.
Vince Lombardi once famously started training camp by announcing, “Gentlemen, this is a football.” He stressed the hidden power of mastering the fundamentals. Beyond that, he believed that how you do something is how you tend to do everything ... which led to his famous quote, “Football is not just a game, but a way of life.”
So, let’s start at the beginning.
Football teams think about how to improve each player, how to beat this week’s opponent, and then how to string together wins to achieve a higher goal.
The team thinks of itself as a team. They expect to practice. And they get coached.
In addition, there is a playbook for both offense and defense. And they watch game films to review what went right ... and what they can learn and use later.
Contrast that with many businesses. Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today, focused on survival, and they lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together.
The amount of thought and preparation that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business.
What about when you get to the highest level? If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a typical business, what about the businesses that are killing it? That would be similar to an NFL team.
Let’s look at the Cowboys.
Practice Makes Perfect
How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right.
Each time I’ve watched a practice session, I’ve come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.
During practice, there’s a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, each with a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There’s a rhythm, even to the breaks.
Every minute is scripted. There’s a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.
They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter periods than you’d guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a player’s attention span. They move from drill to drill, working not just on plays but also on skill sets (where are you looking, which foot you plant, how to best use your hands, etc.).
They use advanced technology to get an edge (including player geolocation monitoring, biometric tracking, medical recovery devices, robotic tackling dummies, and virtual reality headsets).
They don’t just film games; they film the practices ... and each player’s individual drills. Coaches and players get a personalized cut on their tablets when they leave. It is a process of constant feedback and constant improvement. Everything has the potential to be a lesson.
Beyond The Snap
The focus is not just on the players and the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch videos of their opponent to understand tendencies and mentally prepare for what will happen.
During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been expected, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems.
After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.
Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance and look to others for guidance.
Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.
Challenge accepted.
And, just for fun, here’s a video of me doing a cartwheel after a Dallas Cowboys win.
via YouTube.
Sports make you do funny things.
Whether you are watching or playing – Enjoy the game!
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