Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 19th, 2023

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Listen to Understand, Not to Respond. (FlowResearchCollective)
• 9 Habits of Creative Genius. (WayneDyer)
• OverHyped and Never Delivered: A Brief History of Innovations that Weren't. (BigThink)
• Introducing the AI Mirror Test, Which Very Smart People Keep Failing. (TheVerge)
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Frets Over 'Potentially Scary A.I. Tools and How People of the Future Will View Us.' (Fortune)

 

Trading Links:

• Warren Buffett Just Sent a Subtle But Terrifying Signal to Investors. (MotleyFool)
• The Fed Minutes May Reveal a Steep Rise in Rates on the Horizon. (SeekingAlpha)
• The Stock Market Has Been Flipped Upside Down. (Markets)
• IMF: World Economic Outlook is Starting to Recover. (WEForum)
• The Metric that Shows Why the World's Three Biggest Economies Could Be in Serious Trouble. (MarketWatch)

 

Why Less Is Often More

The concept of “less is more” has gained popularity recently, transcending its roots in minimalism.  This idea can be observed in many areas, ranging from the resurgence of simplistic design aesthetics to the widespread popularity of decluttering guru Marie Kondo ...or in the renewed interest in Stoicism.  Minimalism has become an essential aspect of modern life, where people seek to simplify their lifestyles and focus on what truly matters.

The abundance of information and distractions vying for our attention has created a cluttered and overwhelming environment.  We can’t buy everything we see on TV, deep-dive into every interesting topic we learn about on the internet or track everything happening worldwide.  Our limited time and resources force us to choose and prioritize what truly captures our interest and deserves our attention.

In addition to the overwhelm created by the competition for our attention, it is becoming increasingly difficult to discern what is real and trustworthy because of deepfakes, intentional misinformation, and even the seemingly benign advent of AI-generated content that blurs the lines of reality.

The current state of information saturation and manipulation makes it imperative that we approach every piece of information with a healthy dose of skepticism and take the time to verify its authenticity.

Given these limitations, it’s only natural to prioritize and focus on what is relevant and meaningful to us, using our limited time and resources wisely.  The competition for attention demands that we exercise caution, discernment, and purpose in our choices.

There are two critical distinctions that impact your approach to information, as well as your sense of priority and choice of strategies and activities. 

 

The first is whether you are a Specialist or a Generalist.  It isn’t hard to imagine that these two types have pretty different reading lists, habits, and sources of happiness or fulfillment.

 

The second distinction is whether you are a Simplifier or a Multiplier (which is a concept that Dan Sullivan at Strategic Coach has written a book about).  To get to where you are, you’ve been successful at two things in your business career.  You’ve simplified things, which gave you an advantage.  And you multiplied things, which gave you an advantage.  Said a different way, as a simplifier, you took something complex for everybody else and made it simple.  And as a multiplier, you took something that was a new solution, and you had success multiplying it out in the world so that many people could get the advantage of your simplifications.

The truth is, while we all do both, we default to being primarily a Simplifier or a Multiplier. 

The best partnerships happen when you pair the two.  For example, amazing conversations happen when a simplifier says to a multiplier, “I’ve got this elegant solution ... What would you do with it?” Each has something the other doesn’t, and the combination is often exponential.

I am primarily a simplifier.  So, I tend to look for people or technologies to multiply what I produce.

I shot a video on the topic.  Click here to watch.

 

The internet and global digital economy enable you to find an audience for almost anything. 

No matter how far you niche down to find your true calling, there are likely people who are just as excited about what you do as you are. 

In an age where we’re inundated with attention-stealers and ways to spend our time, it’s helpful to remember that less can be more. 

Time's Ticking On The Doomsday Clock

The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the biggest existential risks to humanity includes:

1. Nuclear War: The threat of nuclear weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not properly regulated and controlled.

5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive. Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.

Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

via flowingdata

The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act.  We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges.  With collaboration from the brightest minds across the world and private industry, we have the ability to solve even the world's most significant problems.

If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

Onwards!

The Heartbeat Of AI Is Still Human

I'm proud of our team.  We have a shared sense of Mission, Values, and Purpose.

Also, we understand that robots aren't coming for our jobs.  We're creating the robots, the AI, and the automation – and it's exciting!

With that said, as tech becomes more capable, some will focus on the promise ... while others will focus on the peril.

We're seeing lots of hyperbolic promise and peril in the news cycle recently because of ChatGPT. Trends in technology news appear to come in cycles, with different names and topics but similar patterns. This is because, despite the constant evolution of technology and the world, human nature remains relatively unchanged.

While browsing a library of our old content, I came across an old news story from a local news channel that discussed finding tech talent and featured Capitalogix.  Here's the article.  You can watch the video below. 

via NBC DFW

We are always hiring.

It's not enough to invest in the right ideas or technologies.  You have to invest in the right people as well. 

"Standing still is moving backward ... so you don't only need new technology, you need a new level of data scientists – a new level of professional that can think about what's possible, rather than how to do what we want to do right now."

Even though we've got an incredible edge now, I recognize that edges decay faster than ever.  The trick is to stay ahead.  

The future is bright, and the best way to predict the future is to create it.

Onwards!

Capitalogix's 23rd Anniversary

Last week I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn ... and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 23 years. 

Twenty-three years ... That can’t be right? Can it?

For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.

 

My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school. I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk. 

However, depending on your definition, the 23rd anniversary can be true or false. Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration. Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence.

It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object. It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time. The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses. It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.

The name “Capitalogix” did originate in the year 2000 ... and a surprising amount of the original North Star “purpose” still exists. Honestly, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing ... but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.  

Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come. 

If I had known how difficult it was at the beginning, I probably never would have pursued it. However, knowing how difficult it is, and how challenging it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did because I realize that it’s not just a competitive advantage, it’s a sustainable competitive advantage. It’s easy for people to focus on a capability, it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in difficult conditions. They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger, it’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.  

As we celebrate Chinese New Year, it also feels like a new beginning for Capitalogix as we chase after new possibilities and probabilities. 

We didn’t come this far — just to come this far! Onwards!

The World's Biggest Hedge Funds

Hedge Funds have seen a downtick since COVID-19. There are still 15,000 of them (amounting to $4.5 Trillion in assets under management).

Seventy percent of Hedge Funds are North American. 

Visualcapitalist put together a guide to the 20 biggest funds. It puts the consolidation of wealth into perspective. 

via visualcapitalist

Unsurprisingly, Bridgewater tops the list by a wide margin with nearly double the assets of their closest competitor. And, despite poor performance by many funds, the overall state of the market means that many funds still saw growth. 

The expansion of hedge funds may not always align with general market trends – and is not necessarily a reflection of the overall economic situation. However, studying and evaluating their growth and results can still be beneficial. 

AI Tools For Your Business

Last week, I talked about the time value of time - and the benefit of quality peer groups. 

On Friday, one of those peer groups spent hours talking about the promise and peril of generative AI. While some people remained skeptical or in fear of what tools like ChatGPT made possible. 

One of the members shared an AI tool directory that I thought was worth sharing as well. It's called Futurepedia.io 

via futurepedia.io

My contribution to the discussion was brief, but it amounts to this ... Nothing you're hearing about AI should scare you. It should scream opportunity.  You don't have to rush.  AI is at the beginning of a long upwards sloping cycle of impact and capability. However, AI isn't duct tape, and for most, it's not a business ... it's a tool to help you create a bigger future that wasn't possible before.  Much like "internet" companies came and went in the late 1990s ... yet almost every company uses the internet in ways that were unimaginable at the beginning of the cycle.

People often get stuck searching for 'something' (often a singular goal or result). But, in their myopia, they miss the possibility of 'or something better.' 

In my business, I'm rarely happy to settle for less than I'm aiming for ... but I am willing to happily take the 'or something better'. Nonetheless, it is hard to see (let alone be open to) other targets or possibilities when you myopically focus on achieving the lesser (but specific) goal or target you initially chose to focus upon.

So, here is a thought to ponder ...

What is opportunity, and when does it knock? It never knocks. You can wait a whole lifetime, listening, hoping, and you will hear no knocking. None at all. You are opportunity, and you must knock on the door leading to your destiny. You prepare yourself to recognize opportunity, to pursue and seize opportunity as you develop the strength of your personality, and build a self-image with which you are able to live -- with your self-respect alive and growing. ~ Maxwell Maltz

Imagine what you believe this tipping point indicates is possible personally and professionally.

Hope that helps. 

How'd These 2022 Predictions Fair?

As we brought in 2022, I asked the question:

What's going to happen as a result of the continuing pandemic, inflation, interest rates, the ongoing supply chain issues, and the growing anxiety and unrest brewing underneath the surface of the new normal? In January, we'll get to see VC's predictions. Before that, what do you expect to happen in 2022? - How'd These 2021 Predictions Fair?

I proceeded to share visualcapitalist's 2022 predictions: 

via visualcapitalist

Well, there was undoubtedly increased volatility. 

While the whole board isn't correct, there's a surprising amount of prediction accuracy. On some level, predictions benefit from being generally vague. Also, many of the predictions that may not seem as accurate "today" seemed more accurate at some point this year. For example, we heard a lot about NFTs in the first half of the year, and while Big Tech is currently laying off employees, there was massive growth this year. 

What are you surprised they got right? In what areas were the predictions most off-base? Why?

And, of course, what are your mega-trend predictions for 2023?

Interesting stuff! 

OpenAI's ChatGPT is Pretty Cool

One of my go to claims about AI is that it can do almost anything ... but it can't do everything. Specific AI systems are becoming incredibly robust. Last year, I wrote an article emphasizing how big of a jump GPT-3 was from past language processors.  I also shared a Seinfeld sketch created by GPT-3 that was so good it was almost unimpressive ... it just felt like a Seinfeld sketch. 

It feels like every week, there's a new breakthrough in pop AI. OpenAI just released ChatGPT (for free) to the public. The promise of ChatGPT is to give a cogent reply to conversational discussions. It can help you code, it can write a poem, can answer your questions, and more. The code it produces is stellar, and it can even create a convincing romantic comedy using characters from various famous shows. It does a lot very well, but it does have some failings. 

ChatGPT via OpenAI

 

GPT-3 is 100x bigger than any previous language AI model and comes pre-trained on 45TB of training text (499 billion words). It cost at least 4.6 million US dollars (some estimated as high as $12 million) to train on GPUs. The resulting model has 175 billion parameters. This was impressive enough, but ChatGPT is actually not based on GPT-3 but GPT3.5 an even more robust model that improved on the ability to answer in a way that feels natural. 

ChatGPT can talk about almost any topic you can think of, and even create prose that feels human; however, it's not perfect yet. 

Unfortunately, this chatbot fails in many of the same ways as its predecessors. To start, it can present false information as true because it's essentially a "stochastic parrot" basing its answers on statistical regularities in its data sources, not on an actual understanding of the world. As well, a lot of its answers can include meaningless fluff that sounds good but doesn't actually answer the question meaningfully ... almost like a high schooler that forgot to read the book before writing an essay. It also can't produce ASCII art despite the advancements in AI art we've recently discussed. 

Regardless of ChatGPTs faults, it's a very impressive piece of software. It can answer trivia like Google, write poetry and dialogue, it can pretend to engage in philosophic discussion, and it can help you correct your code or improve your writing. 

Here's a sonnet I had it write about Artificial Intelligence:

AI, the future's shining light,
A force that shapes our world anew,
A source of endless possibility,
A tool that cuts our burdens in two.

From language translation to deep learning,
AI's capabilities are vast and grand,
It helps us solve problems, find solutions,
And gives us new ways to understand.

But with great power comes great responsibility,
As AI transforms our world and lives,
We must ensure that it's used ethically,
That it helps, rather than subverts or deprives.

So let us embrace this technological marvel,
And use it wisely, for the common good,
For AI has the power to unravel
Our deepest mysteries, as well as hurdles.

 

It does what it is supposed to do very well. It is much more conversational and robust than previous chatbots. Obviously, it doesn't do everything well, and I doubt a chatbot will any time soon. Nonetheless, it is a step forward … and it will create ripples of progress.

What do you think?

Tech Company Layoffs

For all the drama at Twitter, they're not the only ones experiencing layoffs in the tech industry. Though, Elon is now (supposedly) trying to renege on his severance packages.  

via visualcapitalist

Meta and Amazon saw even steeper layoffs than Twitter. Is this a result of overhiring during the tech boom, or a sign of dire times? Time will tell.  

Stated reasons are economic uncertainty and poor performance, we're also seeing unsuccessful departments downsize - like Alexa. 

To help allay economic fears, payroll and wage data from the U.S. government are exceeding expectations, and the country’s unemployment rate is close to a half-century low. As well, tech jobs account for 3% of the workforce - and many of those laid off will be picked up by smaller companies. 

Even if the layoffs represent a short term reaction to what tech companies are seeing, hearing, or otherwise experiencing … they won't necessarily translate to long term bad news for our economy.