At a mastermind meeting last week, Landon Downs from 1Qbit spoke on the state of technology. Landon and I agree on a lot of things - and one of those things he emphasized heavily. AI is in a period of massive innovation. It's a renaissance, or springtime, or whatever euphemism you want to use. But it's only springtime for AI if you can take advantage of it.
Adding to that, he explained that a current constraint might become a big short-term limitation to how widespread AI can grow. The constraint is that there is a global chip shortage (and it could be an issue until 2023).
The chip shortage is probably a bigger problem than you imagine because microchips are in everything from refrigerators to toothbrushes - not just high-tech computers. This has the potential to be a massive disruptor, especially in the tech industry.
Building and running smart AI systems takes a lot of computing power, and as more competitors enter the scene, not only will the cost to play increase, but so will the potential you get turned away at the door.
To a certain extent, the AI arms race becomes a chip arms race.
As I thought about the chip shortage, and its impact on the next few years, it also made me brainstorm what else I thought would be the most influential shifts that would influence me and my business (and potentially the world).
Here's my top 5, and I'd love to hear yours.
- Compute Power is going to increase, and the ability to brute force problems will create new possibilities. Quantum computing will become more important and likely available for commercial use.
- New and better AI platforms will transition AI from a tool for specialists to a commodity for everyday people - it won't just be Artificial Intelligence, it will be Amplified Intelligence (helping people make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually measure and improve performance).
- Blockchain and authenticated provenance are going to become more important as the world becomes increasingly digital. Trust and transparency will be important as indelible logs are needed for finance, medical, armies, etc.
- IoT will become more pervasive, enabling near digital omniscience as everything becomes a sensor that transmits data up the chain.
- Mass customization will become the norm instead of simple mass production as hardware, data, and AI continues to improve products, medicine, custom supplements, and just about everything else.
What do you think? I'd love to hear your list.
Camp Kotok 2021
Each year I look forward to Camp Kotok, or as I like to call it Economists in Nature. It's basically 5 days of canoeing, fishing, and dining with economists, wealth managers, traders, investors and more.
One of few chances for people from these backgrounds to come together and talk about the world, big trends, investing, economics, politics, and more ... in an open and safe forum. The event goes by the Chatham House Rule - which basically means you can share the information you receive, but not who said it.
This year we talked about everything from China, digital currencies, the pandemic, and the state of markets.
Interestingly, for all the takeaways I could focus on, the main takeaway was uncertainty.
For all the intelligent and "in-the-know" people in the room, very few people had clear opinions of what was going to happen. There were too many variables at play, and while they posited a lot of potential paths, it feels like the general census was we're at a crossroads with many potential futures in front of us.
Despite the general uncertainty in the room, it wasn't fear-laden. The general mood was optimistic, and for the most part, everyone sees paths toward economic success post-COVID.
With that said, when and what "post-COVID" means is another issue.
One of the other key discussions that came up often was the new generation of workers and their changing relationship with work. It's plain to see the rate of quitting is higher, that wages are rising, and it's getting hard to fill minimum wage jobs. It's hard to get employees back in an office space, and many are willing to take pay cuts or switch to other companies to stay at home.
The long-term impact on our economy (and our culture) is yet to be seen.
We live in interesting times.
As a bonus, here's an interview I shot at Camp Kotok in 2018 with Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors' Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist. Check it out.
Cumberland Advisors via YouTube
Posted at 06:28 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Travel, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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