Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 13th, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• We May Be Closing in on the Discovery of Alien Life. are We Prepared? (NBCNews)
• An Ant Colony Has Memories Its Individual Members Don't Have. (TheNextWeb)
• Meat is Unhealthy, Meat is Okay: Why Science Keeps Overturning What We Thought We Knew. (Vox)
• Entries in the 2020 Sony World Photography Awards. (The Atlantic)
• Google Has Suspended Its Controversial Field Research' that Allegedly Scanned Homeless People. (TheVerge)

 

Trading Links:

• This Chart Ranks Everyone (Even You) by Their Wealth, and It's a Snapshot of Inequality. (CNBC)
• The Downside to Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade Eliminating Trading Fees. (MarketWatch)
• Job Losses in 2019 Highest in 4 Years as Manufacturing and Auto Industries Falter . (24/7 Wall St)
• Trump Administration Slaps 25% Tariff on Single Malt Scotch Whisky Imports. (Forbes)
• Former Nasdaq Boss Robert Greifeld Says We'll Remember WeWork as When the 'Unicorn' Bubble Burst. (CNBC)

 

 

Trade Shows & The Evolution Of Trading

I recently participated on several panel discussions about AI and trading. This picture was taken at The Trading Show in New York.

I speak at a number of events every year because I enjoy meeting people pushing the envelope and shaking things up.  It is also a great opportunity to feel the pulse of the industry (by paying attention to the titles of the sessions, the types of sponsors and vendors attracted, and of course, the makeup of the audiences).

Big changes are coming!  Technical innovations and data science insights continue to impress, but the use of alternative data and advanced AI is at a tipping point.  I describe these shifts in the book I’m finishing up, called “Next On Wall Street – Understanding AI’s Inevitable Impact on Trading”.  Let me know if you want to know more about the book.

In the 90s, when I’d go to conferences, I would pay attention to speakers.  Now, when I go to conferences, I'm paying attention to the audience.   The players are changing so fast, the game itself is changing.

 

 

There have been various generations of trading built on different innovations. When computerized data became available, simply understanding how to download and use it generated Alpha. The same could be said for each later evolution: the adoption of complex algorithms, access to massive amounts of clean data, and the adoption of AI strategies.

Each time a new shift happens, traders pivot or fail. The scale of innovation increases, but the pattern remains.

At this most recent conference, I was excited to see people recognizing the pivot toward AI, Big Data and high-speed computing.

Change happens slowly, and then all at once, and we’re getting close to that inflection point.

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 6th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

 

• NASA Chief Scientist Says 'We're Close' to Making Announcements about Life on Mars. (FoxNews)
• Which Drink is Best for Hydration? Hint: It Isn't Water. (CNN)
• Why Does Time Speed up When You Get Older? (Sciencefocus)
• Tinder Wants Users to Find Love in the Apocalypse. (Wired)
• If the Louvre Was on Fire, Should We Rescue the Art First or the People? (3QD)

 

Trading Links:

• Which Billionaire Will Be the World's First Trillionaire?(Entrepreneur)
• The US's Quantum Leap to Dominate AI. (FoxBusiness)
• The Future of Cryptocurrencies. (Worldview)
• 2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast. (Stratfor)
• What a Trump Impeachment Battle Means for Financial Markets. (NYT)

The Gig Economy: Uber's Woes

I enjoy looking at great disruptive companies and great examples of industries that are primed for disruption.

Think about how many companies have failed due to myopia... Radioshack couldn't understand a future where shopping was done online and Kodak didn't think digital cameras would replace good ol' film. Blockbuster couldn't foresee a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes, because "part of the joy is seeing all your options!" They didn't even make it long enough to see "Netflix and Chill" become a thing. 

The Taxi industry had been ready for disruption way before Uber came along, yet, Uber may have mismanaged their opportunity. Taxis now have a chance to innovate back. 

To run a taxi in New York you need a medallion. There are approximately 13.5 thousand medallions in NYC. In 2013, prices peaked at over 1.3 million dollars for a single medallion. 

The medallion system has been broken for a long time. NYC taxis, in particular, were corrupt and the prices of medallions were artificially inflated by Bloomberg and de Blasio, and built on a debt bubble.

Taxis offered mediocre service, high rates due to artificial caps/greed, and often didn't take credit cards.

They didn't adapt and got disrupted. It's an age-old tale. The same tale as Blockbuster or Kodak; companies thinking linearly in an age of exponential change. 

Taxi agencies had the infrastructure to edge ridesharing out and adopt friendlier policies but were slow to adopt the apps and convenience that modeled ridesharing.

 

via chartr

It's clear that there's an increased demand for rides. Increased demand is likely caused by access in places that didn't previously have enough demand for a full taxi-service. Ridesharing means you can have drivers in small towns, rural areas, etc. Almost all the new demand is being monopolized by ridesharing. 

Should it be, though?

Many would argue Uber's model isn't sustainable; neither are many of these gig-based companies like DoorDash. Uber has a product almost everyone uses, no inventory, very little staff, and despite "winning" the race, it lost $370 million in 2018 and $4.5 billion in 2017.

 

They gained market share by offering lower prices (even at a loss). They also incentivized an army of drivers to join based on flexible hours and side-income.

 

The road to profitability for these companies is uncertain.

 

And the public opinion of Uber is dropping. You have drivers taking out loans to lease cars. You have California making uber classify their workers as employees. You have a review of 14,576 rides showing that these companies take a much larger slice of their drivers' fares than they purport.

 

Uber's low prices got it here, but prices have slowly raised, and AB5 in California has passed, though Uber is claiming exemption - it's likely their prices will jump again if forced to comply.

 

Rideshare companies are trying to convince workers that hour flexibility is worth the non-employee status, but I don't think that has any real basis. Gig workers can't unionize, have little labor protection and don't receive benefits.

 

The industry is in a period of massive disruption - but taxies have a chance to fight back. As the gig economy becomes regulated, the already defined system may regain an edge.

 

In the game of disruption, Uber was shortsighted. In the game of knowing their customers, Taxis were shortsighted.

 

Will taxies see a resurgence as Uber inevitably hikes up rates? Will autonomous fleets put drivers out of business as they will for long-haul freight?

 

Time will tell!

 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 15th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

 

• New Blood Test Accurately Predicts When People Will Die within 5-10 Years. (BigThink)
• What Brain Supplements Can and Can't Do, According to a Neuroscientist. (FastCompany)
• The No. 1 University in America Now Comes with a Total Sticker Price of Over $293,000. (MarketWatch)
• Tim Cook Used a Specific Communication Strategy in Apple's iPhone Keynote. Here's Why Every Public Speaker Should Too. (Inc)

 

Trading Links:

• Counting on a Black Swan Event? There's an ETF for That. (Bloomberg)
• Jack Ma Ends 20-Year Reign at Alibaba with $41.8 Billion Net Worth. (Fortune)
• China's New Digital Currency Could Encourage Worldwide Use of the Yuan, Says CEO. (CNBC)
• The US Deficit Topped $1 Trillion. the Year's Not Even over Yet. (CNN)
• Trashing Fed 'Boneheads,' Trump Calls for Central Bank to Cut Interest Rates to 'ZERO'. (Politico)

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 1st, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Google and Amazon Use Smart Speakers for 'Surveillance,' Top Tech Investor Says. (Finance)
• Streaming TV is about to Get Very Expensive Here's Why. (TheGuardian)
• Professional Video Game Player Signs Deal with Adidas. (CNW)
• Giant Virus Has Evolved Its Own Kind of CRISPR to Destroy Invaders. (NewScientist)
• Pole-Dancing Robot Strippers' to Perform Next to Human Dancers on Stage at Nightclub. (TheSun)

 

Trading Links:

• Surprise, Surprise, Warren Buffet Was Right: Machine-Managed Investment is a Better Bet. (Forbes)
• How ETFs Swallowed the Stock Market. (Wall Street Journal)
• Do We Really Want a Microsoft of Marijuana? (New York Times)
• Businesses Can Now Claim Their Trademark Blockchain Domains, Before It's Too Late. (Finance)
• Ray Dalio Warns of 'Serious Problems' and a Bond 'Blow-off' as a Repeat of the Late 1930S Looms. (CNBC)

 

 

Measuring Normalized Behavior – Stop Worrying and Love The Pain

When your doctor tells you that you are fat, it is easy to discount (because you pay them to tell you that).  When your massage therapist tells you that you are getting fat, you've got to listen (because they're trying to be nice to get a better tip).

Well, for the past two months, I've been getting back into fitness.

I used to be a competitive athlete.  In the past, for me, exercise was about gaining an edge and competing better.  In a sense, that is still true (just on a different field).   Now, I work out to stay healthy, fit, and vital while managing the challenges of running a company, navigating an overbooked calendar, and traveling every week.

In my last post on mindset and action, I talked about the habit of conditioning yourself to take the next best step.

This is about focusing on the right things so you can best measure progress.

 

 

Normalizing your habits and picking the right metrics isn't just a habit for the gym.  It's a habit you should pick up in life. If you don't set the right measuring stick you'll always be unhappy or underperform. 

Plan forward – but measure backward ... you have to make sure you're not so focused on the horizon that you don't track what you've accomplished. 

Normalizing the result makes this easier and better.

In running, for example, it is the time it takes me to finish one mile, while never going above 170 heartbeats per minute.

Meanwhile, in trading, we do this by comparing different opportunities based on a constant risk level (for example, the expected return for the next day of $1M, assuming a 2% maximum drawdown).  It doesn't matter what market we trade, or how many trades the system makes ... we can make a fair comparison and get better insights about performance.

Hope that helps.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 25th, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How to Take a Moneyball Approach to Business Data and Analytics. (TechRepublic)
• The Best Books on Philosophy of Technology. (FiveBooks)
• Explainer: What is Quantum Machine Learning and How Can It Help Us? (The Conversation)
• Most Top AI Researchers in the U.S. are Foreign. (Axios)
• Alien Life on Exoplanets May Be 'More Abundant and Active' Than on Earth, Say Scientists. (Forbes)

 

Trading Links:

• Burgundy Wine Investors Have Beaten the Stockmarket. (Economist)
• Bonds are the Most Expensive They've Been in 64 Years. Here's What That Means for Your Portfolio. (Fortune)
• What is High-Frequency Trading and How Does It Work? (TheStreet)
• The CEOs of Nearly 200 Companies Just Said Shareholder Value is No Longer Their Main Objective. (CNBC)
• Bugatti is Making Only 10 of these $9 Million Supercars. (CNN)

What Are The Most Important Issues Facing The U.S. Today?

According to a Gallup poll, these are the most important issues facing the U.S. today. 

via Statista

In July, immigration topped the list, presumably by people on one side of the political spectrum, followed by the government (likely by people on the other side of the spectrum). 

Surprisingly to me, the economy and the trade war were nowhere to be found. 

Whether or not we have to worry, they seem fairly germane issues. I started writing an article on yield curves and the fear of recession before realizing our Chief Investment Officer, John DeTore, was already writing his own letter on it. So, I'll deal with some of the surrounding issues here.

To start, the U.S. imports nearly 4.5x what it exports to China. 

via howmuch

While the USA's GDP is the highest globally, China is gaining quickly. 

Meanwhile, China is still the biggest holder of U.S. debt – and is currently allowing the Yuan to weaken to try and make its products more competitive and offset tariffs. 

It feels like we're losing some ground.  But, everybody seems to feel that right now.  The next chart shows that sentiment about the economic situation has been globally gloomy.

 

via Statista

Everything seems different, yet everything seems the same.  Markets tend to climb a wall of worry before falling off a cliff ... and then repeating the cycle.

Trends continue until broken.

Seems like a time for caution.  But, historically, times like these seem to have great opportunities hidden in them. 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 18th, 2019

Larry Kudlow confirmed that Trump wants to buy Greenland.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• MIT's New Interactive Machine Learning Prediction Tool Could Give Everyone AI Superpowers. (TechCrunch)
• Why You Need Innovation Capital and How to Get It. (HBR)
• The Myth of Rational Thinking. (Vox)
• The Hotel Hackers Are Hiding In The Remote Control Curtains. (Bloomberg)
• Watch the Meaning of Life: One of the Best Animated Short Films Ever Made Traces the Evolution Life, the Universe & Beyond. (OpenCulture)

 

Trading Links:

• Amazon's Most Lucrative Business is Headed to Space. (Quartz)
• Training a Single AI Model Can Emit as Much Carbon as Five Cars in Their Lifetimes. (TechReview)
• These Indicators Show Where You'll See the Eventual Recession Hit First. (Globe&Mail)
• Big Techs Raise Important Issues Globally beyond Traditional Financial Risks. (Forbes)
• We are Very Close to Peak Fintech, with More Than 10,000 Startups Jumping into the Boom. (Quartz)