On Wednesday, Trump became the third U.S. president in history to be impeached. The Democratic-led House of Representatives passed charges against him for "abuse of power" and "obstruction of Congress."
Wednesday was also the day that I learned many of my friends don't understand the impeachment process. Trump has not been removed from office, and with the vote to remove him coming from the Senate (assuming that the parties will vote along lines) it seems unlikely he will be removed.
While impeachment still matters - it's essentially a demerit. He's been called to the principal's office - but he hasn't been expelled, and he's still allowed to finish the year and apply for next year. He'll likely finish his first term, and has a chance for a second term.
So why go through with the process?
Democrats hope to convince "moderate" Republicans to vote against party lines, and Republicans believe this is a farce/smear campaign that will only solidify support for Trump and embolden their base.
Currently, it feels like Nancy Pelosi is going through the motions just to say she went through them.
It's a seemingly futile exercise in partisan politics ... but it will take until the results of the upcoming Presidential election to truly decide.
Regardless, the market currently doesn't care ... at all.
The Bulls Live On
Before impeachment, Trump warned that the stock market would plummet if he was impeached.
By the end of Wednesday's regular session, equities had weakened slightly, but all major indexes were trading near all-time highs.
It makes sense. Republicans and Democrats voted along party lines, and they'll do the same in the Senate. So, there's little reason for the market to worry.
via cub3dworld
Even if some Republicans voted against party lines, the vote needs a 2/3 majority to pass.
Markets respond to fear and excitement - and while there's political grandstanding on both sides, nothing really has happened. Even if Trump were removed, Pence would remain a supporter of Trump's policies.
In the long-term, this raises questions about who will govern us in the future, what policies will be passed, etc... All things that will influence the market.
Time will tell what the results will be, but it feels like we're safe from major political news until Super Tuesday in March.
Growth of the US In 2019 (and into 2020)
The US economy and its financial markets have proven resilient - if you look at the timeline of our history, there's almost unbridled growth.
For all the hiccups, issues, downturns, etc. our economy is enormous and still growing.
In fact, our largest growth came on the backs of the Great Depression and WW2 ... it makes sense, but it's a reminder of resiliency.
Looking at 2019, we've seen volatility, fear, uncertainty - but we've also seen a banner year for the S&P 500, and continued GDP growth.
According to visual capitalist, the key sectors for growth this year were semiconductors, credit services, aerospace/defense, electornic equipment, and diversified machinery. Oil, wireless communications, foreign banks, apparel, and foreign telecoms took a hit.
I share these images, not to say we're invincible, or that growth will continue forever, but to say that as we start the new year it's important to be optimistic and keep an eye on what's possible, not what obstacles we may face along the way.
Onwards!
Posted at 09:46 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
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