The Market Doesn't Care About Trump's Impeachment

On Wednesday, Trump became the  third U.S. president in history to be impeached. The Democratic-led House of Representatives passed charges against him for "abuse of power" and "obstruction of Congress." 

Wednesday was also the day that I learned many of my friends don't understand the impeachment process. Trump has not been removed from office, and with the vote to remove him coming from the Senate (assuming that the parties will vote along lines) it seems unlikely he will be removed. 

While impeachment still matters - it's essentially a demerit. He's been called to the principal's office - but he hasn't been expelled, and he's still allowed to finish the year and apply for next year. He'll likely finish his first term, and has a chance for a second term. 

So why go through with the process?

Democrats hope to convince "moderate" Republicans to vote against party lines, and Republicans believe this is a farce/smear campaign that will only solidify support for Trump and embolden their base.

Currently, it feels like Nancy Pelosi is going through the motions just to say she went through them. 

It's a seemingly futile exercise in partisan politics ... but it will take until the results of the upcoming Presidential election to truly decide. 

Regardless, the market currently doesn't care ... at all. 

The Bulls Live On 

Before impeachment, Trump warned that the stock market would plummet if he was impeached. 

By the end of Wednesday's regular session, equities had weakened slightly, but all major indexes were trading near all-time highs.

It makes sense. Republicans and Democrats voted along party lines, and they'll do the same in the Senate. So, there's little reason for the market to worry. 

via cub3dworld

Even if some Republicans voted against party lines, the vote needs a 2/3 majority to pass. 

Markets respond to fear and excitement - and while there's political grandstanding on both sides, nothing really has happened. Even if Trump were removed, Pence would remain a supporter of Trump's policies. 

In the long-term, this raises questions about who will govern us in the future, what policies will be passed, etc... All things that will influence the market. 

Time will tell what the results will be, but it feels like we're safe from major political news until Super Tuesday in March.