Just because something is overhyped, doesn’t mean it’s bad. Gartner's hype cycle is a great example of this. Every technology goes through inflated expectations and a trough of disillusionment, regardless of whether they're a success or failure. Sometimes a fad is more than a fad.
Humans are pretty bad at exponential thinking. We're not bad at recognizing periods of inflection, but we're very bad at recognizing the winners and losers of these regime changes.
There are countless examples. Here's a funny one from Maximum PC Magazine in 2008. It shows that hype isn't always a sign of mistaken excess. This list purported to show things that were getting too much attention in 2008. Instead of being a list of has-beens and failures, many of these things rightfully deserved the attention.
It's been 14 years since this came out. How did the predictions hold up?
Facebook has become Meta, and is one of the big five. The iPhone has sold more than 2.2 billion phones, and accounts for more than half of Apple's total revenue. And the list keeps going. Multiple GPU video cards, HD, 64-bit computing, and downloading movies from the internet ...
It's hard to believe how poorly this image aged.
The trend is your friend while it continues. Just because something is overhyped - doesn't mean you shouldn't be excited about it.
Onwards!
Origin Story: Warren Buffet
Warren Buffett is a legend for many reasons. Foremost among them might be that he's one of the few investors who clearly has an edge ... and has for a long time.
From 1976 to 2017, his Sharpe ratio (excess return relative to risk) was approximately double the overall market. He even did well in 2021. Berkshire Hathaway now has almost a trillion in assets (up from $700 billion in 2019) – and is still performing well.
While many people consider Buffett to be an investor, I also consider him to be an entrepreneur.
At the age of six, he started selling gum door to door. Obviously, selling gum wasn't the key to his path to riches. So, how did he make his first million? Here's a video that explains it.
via Coolnimation
He made his first million at age 30 (in 1960). For context, a million dollars in 1960 would be worth about $8.5 million today.
Buffet has always been honest about his bread-and-butter "trick" ... he buys quality companies at a discount and holds on to them.
It is fascinating to recognize how much the world has changed – and yet how much it has stayed the same.
For extra viewing: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates recently did a full 2-hour interview with CNBC. You can watch it here.
Posted at 05:27 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
Reblog (0)