Capitalogix

Avoiding Death By Snowmobile: Part II

Last year, I recounted my humbling via snowmobile. 

I traveled to Saskatchewan, Canada and "sledded" with people who had been doing it since birth. 

When I got there, everyone was in great spirits. Apparently, this is a sport done with day drinking, lots of laughter, and semi-reckless abandon.

We split into groups: Insane, Merely Crazy, and the Turtles. I figured I was relatively safe with the Turtles ... I was wrong. 

 

 

The machines are capable of gliding over the snow at speeds exceeding 120 miles per hour.  I wasn't going nearly that fast ... but the beasts were harder to tame than I expected. 

Despite crashing numerous times, totaling a sled, and being sore for weeks ... I had so much fun on year one that I brought my son with me on year two. 

 

 

Last year, I recognized 2 things: 

1. Humans are deletion creatures. That means they can hold seven things (plus or minus two) in their memory. While they were focused on fun, I was focused on how to stay on the sled
2. You're supposed to stay on the sled, and leaning into the turn helps you do that ... who'd've thunk it? 

This year I learned a couple more: 

1. People don't forget. Everyone remembered my less than skillful sledding. 
2. Youth is wasted on the young. My son picked it up fast and was speeding as if he'd been on a sled his whole life (despite falls that would cause people with skulls that no longer have soft spots to proceed with caution). 
3. When you find the right group of people, the fun gets more fun, and struggles seem less challenging. 

 

While sledding is fun, it's the people that make the trip. 

Likewise, it's the people you take with you through life that makes it so worth it. 

Oh, and I did suck less this time ... Progress!

 

Gil Brandt and the Innovation of Modern Football

I'm regularly surprised by the levels of innovation and strategic thinking that I see in football.

I've written posts about how much regular businesses could learn from watching football teams. That post talks about how even high school teams have a position-by-position depth chart. They have a game plan for their next opponent. They practice plays on both offense and defense. They watch game film of their past games and future opponents. And, they coach the team as a team, and the players individually. 

Often, simple ideas, applied consistently, are enough to win.

Last night I was at a Dallas Cowboys playoff game (note that is not an oxymoron) ... and I took a picture with this guy.

 

 

I see him at every game ... and every game he wears a different creative and well-thought-out costume. He sits on the 50-yard line, He wears Ferragamo shoes and a nice watch. Yet, something about this game captures his imagination.

Yesterday, I also had the honor of meeting Gil Brandt at the game. For those of you not familiar with him, he was the vice president of player personnel (or Chief Scout) of the Dallas from 1960 to 1989.  He helped Dallas grow into one of the most powerful and popular sports franchises in America. His innovative management and personnel systems are standard operating procedure today for many teams at the professional and collegiate levels nationwide. 

  

 

Many consider him the architect of the Dallas Cowboys. I'm not talking about the stadium or headquarters, I'm talking about their teams and ideas that were the catalyst to "America's Team".  I took this from his Wikipedia page.

He helped pioneer many of the scouting techniques used by NFL clubs today,^[2] such as:

• Creating a new scouting and evaluation system for prospects, which would later spread throughout the NFL. In the NFL Films' documentary series Finding Giants, Ernie Accorsi mentioned how then-general manager George Young built the New York Giants scouting process based on the Cowboys system.^[3]
• Using computers for scouting and talent evaluations. To achieve this level of automatization, the Cowboys had to systematically define which were the traits, measurable qualities and skills that could be expressed into numbers and formulas in order for a computer to understand them.^[4]
• Finding potential prospects in other sports such as: Bob Hayes, Cornell Green, Peter Gent, Toni Fritsch, Percy Howard, Ken Johnson, Ron Howard, Wade Manning, Manny Hendrix and Mac Percival. The Cowboys also set up hospitality suites for coaches at the NCAA basketball tournaments.^[5]
• Brandt was one of the first talent scouts to look outside of the United States and Canada for potential players. Kicker Toni Fritsch was discovered during a European tour.^[6]
• Made unconventional draft choices in lower rounds based on potential, even though at the time it wasn't known if the players would ever be a part of the National Football League. For example: Roger Staubach, Herschel Walker and Chad Hennings.
• The use of psychology tests to identify the mental and personality make-up of prospects.^[7]
• Finding players in the undrafted free agent and small college talent pool, such as Drew Pearson, Cliff Harris, and Everson Walls.^[8]
• Helped to create the NFL Scouting Combine as a centralization of the scouting evaluation process.

 

Gil Brandt is one step closer to joining the NFL's ultimate pantheon – The Pro Football Hall of Fame.  He has been nominated as a contributor finalist for the Class of 2019. The contributor category recognizes "individuals who made outstanding contributions to professional football in capacities other than playing or coaching."

He's an inspiration. Not only did he innovate how teams draft and measure talent ... he's the guy who figured out how to make cheerleaders an iconic symbol of a team and the game itself.

The Psychology Behind Gambling (and Everyday Traders)

Vegas and Wall Street share a lot in common. 

Over Time ... The House Wins

Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win.  In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.

Why does this happen?  The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incent people to play lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.

Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well.  Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win, 

The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.  

In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money - from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights and even the games themselves. 

Here is an infographic that lays it out for you. 

Bojoko via DailyInfographic

Most people aren't gamblers ... the fear of losing big inhibits them.  However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk-aversion when gambling. 

 

The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics. 

 

When you almost get it right - when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win - you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets ... because you're "so close". 

It's human nature to want to feel in control. 

This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing ... if you throw the dice in this particular way ... if you check your holdings at this time every day ... you have control. 

There is a big difference between causation and correlation. 

It is not hard to imagine that the majority of a trader's activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.  

 

Skill vs. Luck

There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.

In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill.  In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.

In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.

Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.

In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.

We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance ... Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that the majority of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.

Are you playing the right game?

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 22nd, 2018

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links

• The Boston Dynamics Robots Can Now Hunt You in the Woods. (DailyDot)
• What Cyber-War Will Look Like. (Scholars-Stage)
• The Mistakes You Make in a Meeting's First Milliseconds. (Wall Street Journal)
• Does Intermittent Fasting Work? Here's What It Can (And Can't) Do for You. (Cheatsheet)
• 'Never Underestimate Human Stupidity,' Says Historian Whose Fans Include Bill Gates and Barack Obama. (CNBC)

 

Trading Links

• Coinbase Says It Has Green Light to List Coins Deemed Securities. (Bloomberg)
• CRISPR Stocks Plummet over Study Pointing to Potential Adverse Effects. (FastCompany)
• Warren Buffett Donates $3.4-Billion to Gates Foundation and His Family's Charities. (Globe&Mail)
• The 24 Rules for Success Left behind by a Legendary Wall Street Banker. (Time)
• Scientists Discovered a Quadrillion Diamonds Hidden Deep within the Earth. (Inverse)

An Investment Guaranteed to Pay Dividends

I think about investments a lot ... that makes sense given my profession.

Yet, as my kids get older, there is an investment I made that paid-off in a big way ... and I want to share it with you.

Like many parents, I wanted to teach my children that, to a large extent, they control what happens to them. One of the first ways I did that was to set up a "compensation system" for them to earn video games.

Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games. I tried something different.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books.  Here is a photo from way back then.

 

 

Paid With Play.

Here's how it worked. When they were younger, 10 books was enough to earn a small game. When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished the requisite number of books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store or game store for them to choose any game they wanted.

When they finished a hundred books, they got a bonus of earning the next game system. That meant if they had a Nintendo, they could now also get a PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360.

How Can You Encourage a Jump to the Next Level?

There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortable reading a certain type of book, and didn't want to read the kind of books that I read.  So, I created a bonus system that counted a particular book as three books.  I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

It Is a Great Way to Learn About Your Kids.

I also used the bookstore visits to get a sense of how the boys were doing. For example, I might say "I notice that you read five books in that series, maybe you'd like this book".  Or, "That sure is a lot of science fiction; what was the last biography you read?"  For the most part, though, I didn't care what they read.  The key was to get them to want to choose certain books for their own reasons.  Ultimately, their preference meant they were learning to love reading.

It Puts Them In Control of Their Destiny and Rewards.

My younger son likes competition. He also broke or misplaced many things. So, in order to earn back the Game Boy unit that he lost, I challenged him to read five books in five days. These weren't easy books either. It was designed to stretch him, and also to teach him that he could read a book a night. The bet was that he either finished all the books in the allocated time, or none of them counted towards games or Game Boys. On the other hand, if he read a book a night for two weeks, not only would he get to have his Game Boy back, the books would count towards a game too. It worked like a charm, and we were both happy.

So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

As they started to get into their teenage years, I needed to up the ante a little. So, 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice. Both boys cashed in ... and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad.

I got what I wanted, though; both my boys love reading.  And know that they can accomplish anything they put their minds to … one step at a time.

 

 

That's an investment that pays dividends for a long time.

  

Inspiration Comes in Many Forms

Once a year, I go to the World BBQ Championship at Memphis in May. 

It's three days of friends, food, fun, and bad puns (like #AporkalypseNow and  #MeatDrinkAndBeMerry).

You've heard the phrase  "Put your money where your mouth is ..."  This year we sponsored a tent and brought some of the Capitalogix team to enjoy the festivities. 

 

 

Here's a look at what was cooking in our tent.  It had a Brazilian "churrasco" flair. 

 

Our Grill Master was Blake Carson, who took a traditional Brazilian Steakhouse cooking style – and innovated upon it – creating the Carson Rodizio kit (which started as a Kickstarter project).  

It is a multi-rotisserie rack that converts your favorite backyard grill into an open and spinning Brazilian style Steakhouse.  It's clever, functional, and cool ... and it's been used to win multiple barbecue championships.

I love to experience an entrepreneur's mind at work.  

It's not always about what you add.  Sometimes, it is about what you take away.  Less is often more. 

Here is a one-minute interview I shot with Blake last year.

 

 

For more on Carson Rodizio, here is their Facebook page.

Innovation, like opportunity, is all around you.

But it's not there for you if you don't see the opportunity, and seize it.

Are You As Good As You Once Were?

Toby Keith has a song that claims: “I ain't as good as I once was ... But I'm as good once, as I ever was.”

 

 

Probably not ... but it was fun to get back in the Shot Put circle at Duke University.

I was there for Graduation Weekend.

Apple CEO Tim Cook today delivered the 2018 commencement address. Here is a video.

 

Cook challenged students to "think different" rather than accept the status quo, and to leave the world better than they found it, by following in the footsteps of leaders like Steve Jobs, Robert F. Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr.

An excerpt from his speech:

 

The pace at which progress is possible has accelerated dramatically. Aided by technology, every individual has the tools, potential, and reach to build a better world. That makes this the best time in history to be alive. Whatever you choose to do with your life, wherever your passion takes you, I urge you to take the power you have been given and use it for good. Aspire to leave this world better than you found it.

I didn't always see life as clearly as I do today. But I've learned that the greatest challenge of life is knowing when to break with conventional wisdom. Don't just accept the world you inherit today. Don't just accept the status quo. No big challenge has ever been solved, and no lasting improvement has ever been achieved, unless people dare to try something different. Dare to think different.

I was lucky to learn from someone who believed this deeply—someone who knew that changing the world starts with following a vision, not a path. He was my friend and mentor, Steve Jobs.

Steve's vision was that great ideas come from a restless refusal to accept things as they are, and those principles still guide us at Apple today. We reject the notion that global warming is inevitable—that's why we run Apple on 100 percent renewable energy. We reject the excuse that getting the most out of technology means trading away your right to privacy. So we choose a different path: collecting as little of your data as possible, and being thoughtful and respectful when it's in our care.

 

Cook graduated from Auburn University and got his MBA at Duke's Fuqua School of Business in 1988.  He is a member of Duke's Board of Trustees.

Hyper-Reality: The Future of Augmented Reality?

Our physical and virtual realities are beginning to blend.  Animation is becoming more realistic.  Virtual and augmented reality are becoming more affordable. Wearables are becoming pervasive.  And, the internet of things will soon overtake the Internet.

We're moving towards a world where technology envelops every aspect of our lives ... figuratively and literally. 

The following (still fictional) video is thought-provoking.  What happens when these new technologies are used to influence behavior, decision-making, and even your identity?  

 

Keiichi Matsuda via Vimeo

Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are not new fields - but, they are evolving quickly. Technology and infrastructure are getting to the point that AR and VR will become common for us.

You have already started to see it (from Google Glass, to the NBA, and of course, to porn). 

"Not too far in the future you will begin to see the integration of AR and VR together eventually leading to having your favorite performer on your lap, in your bedroom doing a custom performance for you and responding to your verbal and physical cues."

- Anna Lee, HoloFilm Productions

Your doctor or nutritionist could help you make better choices for you.  Your therapist or coach could help you perceive and respond differently to the challenges life presents you.  Marketers could better influence your purchases.  Employers could better monitor and measure your performance and productivity. And governments will not be far behind ... doing what they do.

Like many things, these technologies make possible awesome new capabilities (if used well) and horrific consequences (if abused or used in authoritarian ways).

Similar issues are being dealt with in the fields of BioEthics and AI Ethics. In addition, there is a growing discussion of the impact these technologies will have on society. 

We live in interesting times! 

Related articles

What Effect Will VR and AR Have on B2B Customer Service?

Rumors of the demise of augmented reality developers have been greatly exaggerated

Get ready for augmented reality *everything*

Remember Google Glass? It just got its first update in 3 years. Seriously.

Chinese police are using facial-recognition glasses to scan travelers

23 concepts that show what Apple's futuristic smart glasses might look like (AAPL)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 18th, 2018

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• SpaceX Hid a Second, Secret Payload Aboard Falcon Heavy, and It Sounds Amazing. (ScienceAlert)
• Weird: Naked Mole Rats Don't Die of Old Age. (FoxNews)
• Your WHOLE Body Could Be Replaced or Upgraded' with Robot Parts by 2070. (TheSun)
• Drones Grounded at Opening Ceremony _ but Not on Tape Delay. (AP News)
• These Videos of the North Korean Cheerleading Squad Chanting Will Haunt Your Nightmares. (SomeEcards)

Trading Links:

• How Bitcoin's Plunge May Have Been a Precursor to Market Turmoil. (CNBC)
• Blockchain, AI, Machine Learning & IOE Will Make You Money in 2018. (Forbes)
• BlackRock's Message: Contribute to Society, or Risk Losing Our Support. (New York Times)
• US Tax Reform Could Cause Repatriation of $2 Trillion Overseas Investment. (Worldview)
• A Bunch of Shell-shocked Wall Streeters Met in Paradise during the Market Meltdown Here's What Scares Them Most. (BusinessInsider)

Why You Can't Predict March Madness

Last year, I shared some facts about March Madness. For example, the chances of a perfect bracket are  at 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. For those who don't wanna do the math that's 9.2 quintillions. 

This year, 16-seed UMBC (The Chesapeake Bay Retrievers) beat 1-seed Virginia, and left no perfect brackets after only 28 Games. 

As we came into the Elite Eight, nobody picked all eight. Almost nobody predicted No. 3 Texas Tech making it this far ... and there were 17,304,320 digital brackets this year. 

Is there any way to accurately predict something with this many potentialities and this much discord?

Different factors can feel like they provide an edge ... knowing the history of teams, their ranks, how often they've been to the Final Four, or how great their coach is ... but even that knowledge can lead you astray. You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or co-worker, but several of the highest-ranked brackets this year were guesses. 

via ESPN

It's fun guessing when you're making bets on college basketball, but what if this is your livelihood ...

Prediction is hard ... especially about the future.

The way people fill out their brackets often mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some use gut feel, some base their decisions on rank and past performance, and some use predictive models ... and some of us get disappointed when Duke loses.

 Apparently, humans aren't as great at prediction as we think we are.