Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 24th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Meet the Man On a Controversial Mission To Preserve and Digitize Your Brain. (DigitalTrends)
• What is Consciousness? Scientists Compete To Find Out. (Bloomberg)
• Balinese Temple Monkeys are Sophisticated Thieves and Negotiators. (Economist)
• How Predictive Algorithms are Transforming Data Into Decisions. (JeffBullas)
• What is AI? The Human's Handbook to Computers that Think. (MorningBrew)

 

Trading Links:

• The Stock Market is At or Near the Most-expensive Levels Ever By Most Measures. When Will It Matter? (CNBC)
• Stock-Market Bulls Brace for Major Gut Check as Earnings, Fed and GDP Loom. (MarketWatch)
• David Einhorn Warns of Danger From Valuation-Indifferent Investors. (Forbes)
• How VCs and Founders See 2021 Differently. (TechCrunch)
• Virtual Reality Will Be a Trillion-Dollar Marketplace Within Five Years – Here's a Good Example Why. (MW)

 

Why We Don't See Aliens

This week, a former senior Israeli military official proclaimed that we've been contacted by Aliens from a Galactic Federation - and that not only is our government aware of this, but they are working together. 

How naive to think that election news would be the craziest stuff you'd hear this holiday season ...

Back to aliens (for the record, that was a sentence I haven't typed before).  There are many stories (or theories) about how we have encountered aliens before and just kept them secret. In contrast, I have found it more realistic and thought-provoking to consider theories about why we haven't seen aliens until now.

For example, the Fermi Paradox considers the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and the various high-probability estimates for their existence. 

To simplify the issue, there are billions of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (which is only one of many galaxies), which are similar to our Sun.  Consequently, there must be some probability of some of them having Earth-like planets. It isn't hard to conceive that some of those planets should be older than ours, and thus some fraction should be more technologically advanced than us. Even if you assume they're only looking at evolutions of our current technologies - interstellar travel isn't absurd. 

Thus, based on the law of really large numbers (both in terms of the number of planets and length of time we are talking about) ... it makes the silence all the more deafening and curious. 

If you are interested in the topic "Where are all the aliens?"  Stephen Webb (who is a particle physicist) tackles that in his book and in this TED Talk.   

 

via TED

In the TED talk, Stephen Webb covers a couple of key factors necessary for communicative space-faring life. 

1. Habitability and stability of their planet
2. Building blocks of life 
3. Technological advancement
4. Socialness/Communication technologies

But he also acknowledges the numerous confounding variables including things like imperialism, war, bioterrorism, fear, moons' effect on climate, etc. 

Essentially, his thesis is that there are numerous roadblocks to intelligent life - and it's entirely possible we are the only planet that has gotten past those roadblocks. 

What do you think?

Here are some other links I liked on this topic.  There is some interesting stuff you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand or enjoy. 

• 75 Reasons We Don't See Aliens 
• Wait But Why: The Fermi Paradox
• A New Theory on Why We Haven't Found Aliens Yet
• A List of Solutions to The Fermi Paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

To Infinity and Beyond!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - December 13th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Google Reveals the Most Searched Terms of 2020 - You'll Probably Guess a Few. (TechRadar)
• Ted Talk: The Strength In Weak Leaders. (TED)
• Microsoft Files Patent For a Chatbot that 'Could' Become the 'Twin' of a Deceased Person. (Entrepreneur)
• Seattle Tech Leaders Including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella are Investing In Cricket Teams. (GeekWire)
• The Public Just Haven't Grasped What Happens When Hospitals Get Too Full — Covid-19 In America. (Economist)

 

Trading Links:

• Congress Just Voted To Spend $10 Billion On A.I, and Quantum Computing. (Protocol)
• Intel Not Inside: How Mobile Chips Overtook the Semiconductor Giant. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Best-Managed Companies of 2020 — And How They Got that Way. (Wall Street Journal)
• Tesla Tells Employees Model S and X Production Will Shut Down For 18 Days. (CNBC)
• Global Ranking: 20 Countries Where House Prices Rose Most In 2020. (UK)

Are We Alone In The Universe?

Information Is Beautiful has an interactive data visualization to help you decide if we're alone in the universe. 

As usual, for them, it is well done, fun, and informative. 

For the slightly geeky amongst us, the model lets you adjust the estimate by playing with two equations: the Drake equation and the Seager equation.

The Drake equation estimates how many detectable extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and then in the Universe based on factors like habitable planets, change of life, and then intelligent life, and then the amount of time a civilization sends signals into space. 

The Seager equation is a modern take on the equation focusing on bio-signatures of life that we can currently detect - for example, the number of observable stars/planets, what % have life, and then % chance of detectable bio-signature gas. 

 

via Information Is Beautiful

For both equations, Information Is Beautiful lets you look at various default options but also playing with your own numbers to do the math. 

For example, the skeptic default answer for Drake's equation shows 0.0000062 communicating civilizations in our galaxy and which is still 924,000 in the universe. The equivalent for Seager's equation shows 0.0009000 planets with detectable life in our "galactic neighborhood" and 135,000,000 planets in our universe. 

Even with the "lowest possible" selection chosen, Drake's equation still shows 42 communicating civilizations (Douglas Adams, anyone?) in the universe.

 

via Information Is Beautiful

One of the most interesting numbers (and potentially influential numbers for me) is the length of time a civilization sends signals into space. Conservative numbers are 420 years, but optimistic numbers are 10,000+. 

If any aliens are reading this ... don't worry, I won't tell.  But, we will find out if you voted in the last election.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 29th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Hidden Habits of Genius. (LeadershipNow)
• The Best Inventions of 2020. (Time)
• Are We the Same Person Throughout Our Lives? In Essence, Yes. (NeuroScienceNews)
• For the Best Deals On Almost Anything, Check these 3 Sites First. (FastCompany)
• A Bot Made Frank Sinatra Cover Britney Spears. YouTube Removed It Over Copyright Claims. (Futurism)

 

Trading Links:

• Foot Traffic Drops By Half At US Stores On 'Grey' Friday. (FT)
• Why Institutions Suddenly Give a Damn About Bitcoin. (CoinTelegraph)
• The McKinsey State of AI In 2020 Report Finds AI Drives Revenue. (Forbes)
• 2020 Was a 'Once-in-a Lifetime Event In the Adoption of Modern Technology'. (BusinessInsider)
• Priced For More Than Perfection, Markets Have Dismissed Economic Reality. (Forbes)

What Do We Care About?

In a time of unrest, partisan politics, and situational anxiety ... it is important to remember how much we share (as opposed to what separates us).

VisualCapitalist put together a great graphic on the top 56 values that drive human behavior. For the top 15, it also shows you where they rank based on country. 

1. Family
2. Relationships
3. Financial Security
4. Belonging
5. Community
6. Personal Growth
7. Loyalty
8. Religion/Spirituality
9. Employment Security
10. Personal Responsibility
11. Basic Needs
12. Harmony
13. Health/Well-Being
14. Experiences
15. Respect

Each individual's ranking of the 56 (15 shown above)  may be different, nevertheless, this chart helps highlight what is really important to us all. 

Click the image to see the full infographic. 

via VisualCapitalist

The ranking of the values changes across cultures and nations, but family emerged as the most important value consistently, and other "connectedness" values consistently ranked high. 

Humans are emotional creatures (with the ability to think) rather than thinking beings (with the ability to feel).  Ultimately, we are social creatures in a social society. From a Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs standpoint, security often comes first, but connection comes right after that. 

It's easy to focus on our differences, but it's more important to find the common ground. That's where discussion and progress happen. 

Onwards!

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 15th, 2020

The  upcoming holiday season seems a little different this year.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Your Life Will Be Measured after You Die. (ThriveGlobal)
• Shapeshifting Materials Could Transform Our World inside Out. (Discover)
• Alexa Can Now Guess What You Want before You Even Ask for It. (ZDNet)
• Physics Can Solve Key Challenges Facing AI, Study Finds. (JPost)
• The Greatest Competitive Advantage May Not Be What You Think. (Entrepreneur)

 

Trading Links:

• Beyond Buffett – Does Value Investing Still Work? (Economist)
• Quant Shock that Never Could Happen' Hits Wall Street Models. (Bloomberg)
• The Overnight Business Boom that Took a Century. (Wall Street Journal)
• Biden's First 100 Days: Here's What to Expect. (NPR)
• The Pandemic is Revealing a New Form of National Power. (The Atlantic)

Getting Rid of Cognitive Biases

We make decisions all the time.  To make that easier, we use shortcuts to make processing more efficient, more effective, and more certain.

At least it feels that way to us.

Mental heuristics are great - they do often save us time or effort.  And, for many people, they enable better decision making. But, as with any generalization, there are exceptions that can be dangerous. 

That's where cognitive biases come in; we have biases toward how we remember things, how we view ourselves, how we make decisions, and what we make things mean.

We're all victims to them, to some extent. But hopefully, by understanding them and becoming aware of them,  we can limit their impact. 

Here's a great infographic with 50 of the most common cognitive biases. Click to see the full-size image. 

via VisualCapitalist 

For a bigger infographic with 180+ cognitive biases, click here. 

 

Before You Vote: Getting Educated

Early voting has started, but, if all goes to plan, we'll know who will be the President on November 3rd. 

The fears of fake news and the growing echo chambers around candidates (and policies) mean it can be tough to truly make an educated decision. The reality is, most of our news sources are tinted by the lens of their ideology - which is okay. That means they're appealing to their targeted audience. 

That being said, it may also be worth looking at the same news story from a comparative news source from the other spectrum - or even better, a primary source when it comes to science/economics. 

Here's a chart that shows where news sources rank. You can click the image to go to an interactive version with more details. And, if you're curious about their methods, click here. 

via Ad Fontes Media

On top of reading various news sources, there are a couple of other tools I like: 

• FiveThirtyEight - Uses graphics to tell visual stories on valid statistics. Named after the number of electoral votes. Also has a visual presidential forecast. 
• RealClearPolitics - Aggregates news from various sources, as well as writing their own opinion pieces. Also has a good visual on the current state of the presidential, senate, and house races. 
• Brittanica ProCon - Tracks the stated positions of politicians on various issues. Can be sorted by candidate, and by issue. It also has a quiz you can take to assess which candidate you actually resonate with. 
• Politifact & FactCheck - Both sites fact check presidential statements, party statements, and more. We know politicians often lie by omission, or focus only on the specific stats that are relevant to their point. Fact-checking helps you gain a more holistic picture. 

 

As a last warning on believing anything you hear, most polls I've seen put Biden in the lead ... but if you remember 2016, you know the polls are working on incomplete information. Clinton had a lead on most polls and lost to President Trump. 

We live in interesting times!

Have You Voted?

It's election season! Early voting is now open in most places. 

Regardless of your preference, it doesn't count if you don't vote. 

Gandhi once said, “Be the change you wish to see in the world." This wasn't exactly what he meant … nevertheless, one of the ways you can impact the world is by impacting who gets chosen to represent us in government.

 

2020 has shown how important choosing the right leader is for the country and each of us.

 

I have friends on both sides of the political spectrum, and I hear complaints from both sides. The one thing we all can agree upon is that not enough people (who claim to care) actually get out and vote.

 

It is one thing to whine about the status quo … It is quite another to get up, get out, and do something about it.

 

Combat fake news and media sensationalism by doing some research choosing candidates you think will leave us better than they found us.

If you're not sure where your polling location is, check here.